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Thread: Prediction Prof predicts impeachment

  1. #1
    Senior Member razz's Avatar
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    Prediction Prof predicts impeachment

    First of all, I had not heard of this prof before; secondly, I didn't have any strong opinion on the US election as it was none of my business; thirdly, I didn't really understand all the differences between conservative and progressive view of things but I am learning more each month; fourthly, it is easier for me to post this than if it is done in a partisan approach, I think anyway.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/allan-l...ment-1.4073261



    Quotes:
    Political forecaster Allan Lichtman got a surprise in the mail from the desk of Donald Trump shortly after the U.S. election a personal note, handwritten directly on a Washington Post article about his work.

    The story detailed how the American University history professor broke from the pundits and pollsters to conclude that Trump would take the presidency.

    "Professor congrats good call," Trump had written in black marker, weeks before he was to be sworn into the Oval Office.

    "I thought it was a wonderful gesture," said Lichtman, who has been dubbed the "prediction prof" by Politico. ..
    Unlike his 13 "keys to the White House" algorithm for picking future presidents, Lichtman's new book, The Case For Impeachment, lays out eight "grounds for impeachment" that are not based on a mathematical system but what Lichtman describes as a "deep study of the history" of impeachments and Trump's own history.

    'Trump will be president': Meet the prof with 30-year record of predicting winners
    His new deduction has made a splash by virtue of who Lichtman is. When political statisticians came to a near-universal conclusion in the lead-up to last year's election that Clinton would handily defeat Trump, Lichtman was a conspicuous holdout.

    "It was flying in the face of every pundit and pollster and statistician in America," he said. "I got a huge amount of flack for my prediction. I kept telling people: 'That's not an endorsement.'"...

    Predicting an impeachment, though? That's a different beast than forecasting an election, say constitutional experts.

    "It's just not that simple," says Susan Low Bloch, one of the 19 constitutional scholars who testified before the 1998 House judiciary committee on the impeachment of president Bill Clinton. The impeachment process was "supposed to be really hard" by design, she says, because the very act of impeachment seems so undemocratic.

    "You are undoing a national election, and I can't think of anything more serious politically than undoing an election," Bloch said. "Whether you like Trump or not, he's now the president until he's done something impeachable which he hasn't, so far as we know."
    Gandhi: Happiness is when what you think, what you say and what you do are in harmony .

  2. #2
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    I have heard about this guy. The only problem if Trump goes is that we are stills tuck with Pence. Ryan also is a total nut job. None of my friends or family in WI have 1 good thing to say about him.

  3. #3
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    I live in WI, and I have a lot of admiration for Ryan. He talks about ideas and policy while seemingly all about him are fixated on putting on lousy political theatre and idiotic gamesmanship. If circumstances were to put him in the Oval Office, I would be delighted (although I doubt he would be).

  4. #4
    Moderator Float On's Avatar
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    There are several bets going on in our community. DH and I both lost already on our predicted impeachments dates.
    Float On: My "Happy Place" is on my little kayak in the coves of Table Rock Lake.

  5. #5
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    Well now i know one person that voted for him.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teacher Terry View Post
    Well now i know one person that voted for him.
    I live in Jim Sensenbrenner's district. Another good man.

  7. #7
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    I don't see impeachment as a possibility except in one scenario - Republican congress scared enough of losing their seats that they throw Trump under the bus, either due to information coming out or a Presidential action that goes very badly.

    As far as impeachable - I can't see how someone can argue that Trump has not monetarily profited from being President.

  8. #8
    Moderator gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    I pray every day - literally - that Trump is impeached and I light a candle at church weekly and pray for his impeachment in front of the Virgin Mary statue. I'd much rather be stuck with Pence until 2020 because Pence I believe would at least conduct himself with decorum in front of world leaders and would not be the overall embarrassment to the United States that Trump is. Rob

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    You are correct Rob that at least Pence would not say something stupid every time he opened his mouth. I think that is the best I can say about him.

  10. #10
    Moderator gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teacher Terry View Post
    You are correct Rob that at least Pence would not say something stupid every time he opened his mouth. I think that is the best I can say about him.
    And this is exactly my assessment of Mike Pence, too....but at least Pence would be an improvement over what we have in office right now. Rob

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