Here Come the Primaries

[LDAHL]

Believe it or not, we recently held a primary election in Wisconsin. It was for a slot on the State Supreme Court. Two of the three major candidates essentially ran against Trump. The third one (who got the most votes) took a more traditional law-and-order stance. It's a "nonpartisan election", but you know...

Now I see the California Democrats did not endorse Diane Feinstein for her Senate run, apparently on the grounds of ideological impurity. She always seemed plenty liberal to me, but these are strange times.

I would have thought that normally the Democrats would be teeing up a 2010-style shellacking for the GOP. The economy's in decent shape, but Mr. Trump seems eager to disgust or embarrass at every opportunity. Some creative redistricting may get overturned. There is also the historical tendency to favor the outside party in the mid-terms.

But now I wonder if they may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. When I see Senator Warren drawing attention to that old Native American ancestry claim, I wonder if identity politics may yet drown out the pragmatists who are primarily interested in winning elections. The primaries begin in earnest next month. It will be interesting to see how the firebreathers in both parties do.

[iris lilies]

I was horrified to receive an invitation to our mayor’s fundraiser for re election. Jesus H., she just took office last year (and is doing a spectacularly stupid job.)

[jp1]

I agree that Diane F is pretty liberal generally. Probably the biggest area where she fails the purity test is her failure to embrace single payer healthcare. The other thing she has going against her is age and longevity. The progressive base is eager for new blood and to get away from the tired republican-lite politics of the Clintons. All that said, I'll be stunned if she doesn't end up getting re-elected.

One thing that will be interesting to watch is how the california open primaries play out. In 2016 that resulted in 2 democrats in the general for the senate. In theory it could play out oppositely for various congressional districts this year. With the enthusiasm of the democrats has come a lot of candidates. It's entirely possible that in the 7 congressional seats here that are held by republicans in districts that didn't support trump, including a couple where the incumbent has decided to retire, we could have a bunch of dems split the primary vote leading to republicans making it to the general if there are less republicans in the primary.

[LDAHL]

I agree that Diane F is pretty liberal generally. Probably the biggest area where she fails the purity test is her failure to embrace single payer healthcare. The other thing she has going against her is age and longevity. The progressive base is eager for new blood and to get away from the tired republican-lite politics of the Clintons. All that said, I'll be stunned if she doesn't end up getting re-elected.

One thing that will be interesting to watch is how the california open primaries play out. In 2016 that resulted in 2 democrats in the general for the senate. In theory it could play out oppositely for various congressional districts this year. With the enthusiasm of the democrats has come a lot of candidates. It's entirely possible that in the 7 congressional seats here that are held by republicans in districts that didn't support trump, including a couple where the incumbent has decided to retire, we could have a bunch of dems split the primary vote leading to republicans making it to the general if there are less republicans in the primary.

The trouble with open primaries is that often the zealots of various stripes show up to vote while much of the party mainstream stays home. I think you're right that multiple candidates battling over fine points of ideology could damage a party's chances. You can also see opportunists with minimal past party affiliation but an enthusiastic following hijack the process. I think this was true to greater or lesser degrees with both Trump and Sanders.

Sometimes I wonder if smoke-filled rooms aren't a better way to go.

[Williamsmith]

I see the Democratic Party with a real opportunity to take back territory. Trump is shooting himself in the foot at every turn mostly because he has no strict ideology. His base doesn’t know what to expect from him and in the political realm tends to dissolve quickly if it is not shored up. Plenty of people who would have voted for Sanders, voted against Clinton out of disgust for her.

Beyond the midterms, if Democrats get a boost with some momentum from a stalled economy or an unpopular foreign intervention, Bernie Sanders could run again if he stays healthy. But more importantly, the Democraticic party has young inspiring up and comers who will be ready to flood the primaries with candidates from President much like the Republicans did when Trump broke out.

if I were to pick a horse, I would bet on someone like Ro Khanna. Check him out. The popular vote next time could lean toward Medicare for all and reduced foreign intervention as well as a focus on education and infrastructure. I think Trump would like to get beaten and call it quits anyway.