Since May, when the futures market began to anticipate China retaliating with tariffs on soybeans from the USA, USA prices dropped about 18%, and Brazil prices rose by 28%. The USA and Brazil account for 80% of the global exports of soybeans. Therefore, Chinese importers are buying more beans from Brazil. The short term effect of Chinese retaliation is for Brazilian bean farmers to be winners, US bean farmers the losers. The value of US bean crops in the field or in the bin was deliberately targeted by China.
One possible response is to say to the impacted farmers,
Be tough.
Buck up and huck it.
Diversification of crops theoretically would help. While China targets soybeans, the losses on beans theoretically can be offset by profits on other crops, like, say, corn. But unfortunately Mexico is targeting corn. The price of corn dropped by 13% since May.
In my view, the duration of the trade war is a worry. The longer the retaliation persists, the more distress will be felt on midwestern farms. Will the president who promised to Make America Great Again work with Congress to provide subsidies to the farmers who will incur losses due to the trade war? I have not heard it promised, but maybe it will be promised in the Republican tents at the state fairs this year...
US processors who are buyers beans and corn are short term winners as a result of the lower prices.