What would you do here?

[iris lilies]

Hi IL.....there is a problem with your stats here, IL. The real estate meltdown hit Phoenix hard at the end of 2008 - checks stats for 2009 and 2010....in mid 2011, values started very very very slowly rising again, ditto for 2012, and by 2014 Phoenix was off to the races again. Recently the average price of a house in Phoenix hit a new record high but I don't see wages rising to match and my guess is now is a good time to sell and flee if so inclined as I personally don't believe this can last much longer.

But to the point? Check out stats during the depth of the housing crisis and you'll find numbers that more closely match mine. Also, 1813 West Wiletta? That's in a very spendy area known as Willow - very close in to Central Avenue, very spendy, and a number of very well off gay men and their partners live in this neighborhood - it's your stereotypical completely restored historic neighborhood with real estate values to match. The house on Harvard? This was around the peak of real estate prices in Phoenix, and the house on Hubbell? I don't know the house but for the date you list that is overpaying a good 20% to 1/3rd. I don't know Brill Street but 2006 was the year before the pre collapse peak in Phoenix real estate. Try 2009 and 2010 as dates and see what you come up with. Rob

ok, you win the point that in the depths of the real estate bust, houses listed for far less than now.

While it is difficult to find list prices from the narrow year range of 2009-2010 and even harder to find sales price (I suppose because there were few sales) I did find a few examples that confirmed $40,000 - $60,000 houses then go for 3x to 4x that now.

So, maybe you should sell now and flee, while yoi have high net worth.

[Tybee]

Rob, I looked at your zip code on Zillow but sorry, you are in a high rent district. I could not afford a shack in your neighborhood. If your house also includes a rentable guest cottage--seriously, I don't know if your neighborhood is just gentrifying, and you won't feel at home there soon, but honestly, it feels a little insulting to have you go on and on about this neighborhood/zip code being part of some social justice street cred based on membership in the lower classes. I guess this puts me in the bowery bum category or something.
You seem to live in an up and coming golden ticket neighborhood, so enjoy it, or rent them both out (main house and guest) and go to Mexico eventually. But please stop talking about how bad everyone in the zip code has it, or how they are somehow morally superior.

[gimmethesimplelife]

Rob, I looked at your zip code on Zillow but sorry, you are in a high rent district. I could not afford a shack in your neighborhood. If your house also includes a rentable guest cottage--seriously, I don't know if your neighborhood is just gentrifying, and you won't feel at home there soon, but honestly, it feels a little insulting to have you go on and on about this neighborhood/zip code being part of some social justice street cred based on membership in the lower classes. I guess this puts me in the bowery bum category or something.
You seem to live in an up and coming golden ticket neighborhood, so enjoy it, or rent them both out (main house and guest) and go to Mexico eventually. But please stop talking about how bad everyone in the zip code has it, or how they are somehow morally superior.

Hi Tybee,


It is true that the 85006 is appreciating - this has happened once before, too, in the real estate run up of 2004 -2006. Most people, even though they could bail, are choosing to stay. The same issues plague those who choose to stay as before the real estate run up. The only reason most can stay here is that they bought in when real estate was much cheaper - this area has a lot of long term, and I mean long term house owners, and also the fact that property tax is so cheap here overall helps people to stay. But there are those who are being tempted to move on, as in 2004 to 2006. The biggest reason I stay, beyond the fact that living in the 85006 works for me, is that I am not going to find a less expensive housing situation in the United States - my half of the mortgage is 217.50 a month - try beating that anywhere in the US these days.


Just because people could run does not mean that they can afford where they are running to as the higher bills of leaving the 85006 and their locked in cheap mortgages would follow them. But for those fleeing back to Mexico or somewhere else less expensive, now is a very good time to sell, that much I would agree with. Rob

[catherine]

I guess everything's relative.

Here is an assessment of the market in Rob's zip code: https://www.realtor.com/local/85006
And mine in my town in NJ: https://www.realtor.com/local/08824
And mine in VT: https://www.realtor.com/local/05458
And IL's in Hermann: https://www.realtor.com/local/65041

Have to admit, of all of these, the 85006 seems to be appreciating the most. Grand Isle also is on the upswing, but you have to consider that upswing will have a downturn in the winter. Otherwise, NJ zip code trend line is flat (makes me think I should sell now before it starts going down), and IL's is only slightly appreciating.

I'm not making a point about Rob here. Just interesting to explore the differences in real estate. I don't even want to check out jp1's market assessment. I could maybe afford the patch of land that he puts his garbage can on.

It's all relative. Across the country, there will be a huge range and one man's $300,000 will give him a dump in one place and a castle in another.

I guess we can all just be grateful we have a roof over our heads.

[LDAHL]

I guess everything's relative.

Here is an assessment of the market in Rob's zip code: https://www.realtor.com/local/85006
And mine in my town in NJ: https://www.realtor.com/local/08824
And mine in VT: https://www.realtor.com/local/05458
And IL's in Hermann: https://www.realtor.com/local/65041

Have to admit, of all of these, the 85006 seems to be appreciating the most. Grand Isle also is on the upswing, but you have to consider that upswing will have a downturn in the winter. Otherwise, NJ zip code trend line is flat (makes me think I should sell now before it starts going down), and IL's is only slightly appreciating.

I'm not making a point about Rob here. Just interesting to explore the differences in real estate. I don't even want to check out jp1's market assessment. I could maybe afford the patch of land that he puts his garbage can on.

It's all relative. Across the country, there will be a huge range and one man's $300,000 will give him a dump in one place and a castle in another.

I guess we can all just be grateful we have a roof over our heads.

You’re making some good points today. Last week, in preparation for retiring, I sold one house in a hot market and bought another in a more tepid market. While we’re downsizing a bit, I was happily astonished by the price difference.

I was also surprised to learn from the realtor that the mid-range price points are selling much faster than those above and below and that for some reason multi-story houses are considered much less desirable.

[Tammy]

I find it humorous that someone from out of state didn’t believe someone who lives in the neighborhood regarding housing prices. Why don’t we believe basic facts from one another anymore?

[LDAHL]

I find it humorous that someone from out of state didn’t believe someone who lives in the neighborhood regarding housing prices. Why don’t we believe basic facts from one another anymore?

You’re assuming the local is presenting basic facts.

[gimmethesimplelife]

You’re assuming the local is presenting basic facts.

Which I have all along from Day one. It would appear as if there are those who are resistant to basic facts that they don't care to see/hear. Rob

[iris lilies]

Which I have all along from Day one. It would appear as if there are those who are resistant to basic facts that they don't care to see/hear. Rob

You win the real estate volitility in Phoenix debate! I concede! Depending on when you got into the market, it could be a really good deal for you.

But we all will have to think of the wealth you in the 85006 have now, given the bubble. Granted, it is wealth on paper and not realized until you sell.

[Lainey]

I agree with others who suggested selling the rings, and also to take that cash and buy gold or silver coins. Portable wealth.

and another AZ real estate market datapoint: I bought a small 1bd/1bath house in foreclosure in 85008 zip code in summer 2011 for $29,000. This week a slightly larger house on the same street (that also has a pool) sold for $225,000. Yes, Phoenix real estate is a driver in our overall economic ratings, but that comes with greater volatility when the greater U.S. economy is shaky.

However, as has been said, the sharp increase in value has been across the board so there is no $ to pocket if you're going to buy or rent something else in the Phoenix metro area. And don't get me started on the real estate sharks who have purchased mobile home parks all over the place here to tear down and rebuild as luxury apartments and left those renters scrambling …

So, good for you Rob for giving a break to a young mother. I've been contemplating the same if/when my family member who is renting my tiny house passes away. I'd like to make a small profit but no need to gouge someone on something as basic as housing.