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Thread: Khashoggi Disappearance: Looming Crisis or Simple Distraction?

  1. #51
    Williamsmith
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    Trumps foreign policy incompetence may have just bit him hard. He may have stepped in it by appointing his son in law Jared Kushner as chief negotiator with the Saudis , specifically the Crowned Prince MbS. Kushner s inexperience and ameuteurish approach to the situation was to develop a relationship with the Prince which may have signaled to the Crowned Prince that the US would not retaliate in response to torture and murder of citizens abroad. There is an ugly rumour going around that Kushner could have shared US intelligence on certain “enemies” of Saudi Arabia and that Khashoggi might have turned into one of the targets based on that information. Even if it isn’t true, there is enough of an appearance of impropriety and enough of an outrage over the sheer ugliness of the whole event, that Trump may find his administration bogged down yet again by another “investigation” into Kushner and his doings with the Prince. It is an ugly optic that need not have occurred. Trumps apparent “patience” with the Saudis does not reflect well on his partnership with thugs and terrorists. The anti Trump faction has just been given great ammunition with which to attempt to remove him again. If the economy go sour, Trump may be stepping and fetching.

  2. #52
    Senior Member Teacher Terry's Avatar
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    WS, I hope you are right as this nightmare needs to end.

  3. #53
    Williamsmith
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    Things don’t seem to be improving for the White House even though the immigrant caravan is gobbling up much of the press coverage which Trump has got to be appreciating. Senator Rand Paul is calling for the Saudis to remove the Crowned Prince MbS and replace him with someone who is an ally not an enemy of the US. Paul doesn’t believe MbS didn’t know about the hit squad and neither does Senator Lindsey Graham.

    To think that a group of 15-18 “rogues” would pull off a hit like this without the approval or even direct order from MbS is really stretching the realm of believability. What Trump might need to spend time on instead of stumping for other Republicans in the midterm.....is figuring out a way to save face and shield his son in law from some guilt by association with the Crowned Prince. It’s really troubling when you see how much the White House has tied its fortunes to the Saudi royal family. The entire Middle East foreign policy and the health of the US economy hinges on it.

    At this point, there is more evidence that Saudi Arabia is a terrorist state than there is regarding Iran in that vain. The US seems to be on the wrong side of the spat between radical Islam. Trumps attempts at vilifying Iran seem to be seriously sidetracked. A split with Saudi Arabia would at least allow us to exorcise the 9-11 demons that have never been acknowledged.

    The next bombshell could be Turkey’s Erdogan, who is promising to release information about the investigation into Khashoggis torture and murder and dismemberment. There’s no end in site especially since no one seems to know where Khashoggis body parts are located.

    If Trump wriggles out of this without being scuffed up, if the midterms are solidly republican and if the economy keeps chugging along.....a lot of people will be astonished.

  4. #54
    Williamsmith
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    On September 19, 1796 a letter was written to “friends and fellow-citizens.” It was published in the American Daily Advisor. The theme of the letter was an appeal to the country to stay loyal to its values by avoiding political dangers....of which foreign entanglements was the prime example. Specifically, the letter advised the U.S. to “avoid long term friendly relations or rivalries pointing out that such relationships cloud the government’s judgement and jeopardizes moral foreign policy.

    The letter further describes those who refuse to heed this warning as subsequent “tools and dupes” of other nations; eventually surrendering U.S. interests to other countries. The letter extols the virtue of “free trade” with all nations and warns against treaties, trade wars and tariffs. In a nutshell, it calls out the Trump Administration and its faults, 222 years before it ever existed. It was George Washington’s farewell address.

    The ugliness and barbarism of the Khashoggi torture, murder and disposal of his corpse by the Saudi government in a planned and calculated mission by ruthless representatives of the Crowned Prince, highlights the wisdom of Washington’s appeal to shun entanglements with foreign nations. Trump is now a tool and dupe of the Saudis. He can’t react in the moral way. As a enabler of the war in Yemen where a campaign to starve the population is being played out and civilian targets have been bombed by weapons sold to the Saudis .....Trump is as culpable as the Crowned Prince.

    With a threat to increase oil oil prices to as much as $400 a barrel.....the Saudis have Trump over a barrel. Especially, since Trump has planned to tighten the screws on Iran’s ability to sell oil to the global market. He needs the Saudis to make up for that. Any lack of cooperation would send the US economy in a tailspin.

    Oh and there is that issue of the massive sale of arms and missile protection. Trump can’t afford for the CEOs of Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Bowing to be without their bonuses and stock options. Nor can he take a hit in the unemployment numbers.

    The whole thing is poised to unravel on him. With Turkey’s president demanding they hold the trial of the 18 Saudis that are “detained”, another policy crisis is morphing off the murder. Anyway, who lets the prime suspect carrying out the investigation?

    Meantime at home, the caravan continues. If the military shows up at the border to halt them, it will be another day of ugly “optics” for Trump.

  5. #55
    Senior Member catherine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Williamsmith View Post
    With a threat to increase oil oil prices to as much as $400 a barrel.....the Saudis have Trump over a barrel. Especially, since Trump has planned to tighten the screws on Iran’s ability to sell oil to the global market. He needs the Saudis to make up for that. Any lack of cooperation would send the US economy in a tailspin.
    Gosh, your post strengthens my resolve to reduce my personal dependence on oil. I know I'm one little grain of sand on an infinite beach, but I am complicit with Trump if I am one of those who has to play footsies with nations who, as you say, have us over a barrel. Our lives are driven by our need for what the Middle East has--even though we really don't get that much oil from them. Our home-grown industrial alternatives: more offshore drilling, pipelines from Canada, and fracking are not acceptable to me either, which leaves me with renewable energy as the only option.

    Next summer we are re-roofing our place (there are a couple of leaks and it's really a patchwork quilt of metal up there) and I've told him that I want go solar. It's a small place--in the summer we will probably do pretty well with reducing our on-grid consumption, but we'll see. I do drive a car, so I'm entangled in that aspect of oil consumption. And of course there's the ubiquitous plastic that is almost impossible to get away from.

    Nonetheless, I am taking this incident and the way it's being handled personally in a way.
    "Do any human beings ever realize life while they live it--every, every minute?" Emily Webb, Our Town
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  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Williamsmith View Post
    With a threat to increase oil oil prices to as much as $400 a barrel.....the Saudis have Trump over a barrel.
    Doubtful. From what I’m reading, this is generally considered to be an empty threat. While there might be a short-term impact, the unlikelihood of other producers cooperating and the Saudi’s diminished foreign currency reserves mitigate against a 1973-style crisis.

  7. #57
    Senior Member JaneV2.0's Avatar
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    This story gets uglier by the moment. Khashoggi seemed completely innocuous to me-just a hardworking journalist--though apparently the radical right is stirring up all kinds of vicious rumors about him now that their pals have slaughtered him. I've heard reports there's a phone trail, including one or more calls to the US. Time will tell.

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  9. #59
    Williamsmith
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    Doubtful. From what I’m reading, this is generally considered to be an empty threat. While there might be a short-term impact, the unlikelihood of other producers cooperating and the Saudi’s diminished foreign currency reserves mitigate against a 1973-style crisis.
    I have to disagree with your poo pooing of the seriousness of the threat. And I hope lawmakers and policy makers in DC don’t share your lack of concern.

    I am certain that contingency plans are in place for responses to the Saudis turning off the spigot. Those include the various gas and oil producers returning to the capped fracking sites of the Marcellus to provide supplemental liquid gas and gas used to make poly plastic pellets for a variety of purposes. This is a resource that will certainly outlive me and probably my kids life.

    The Saudi Energy Minister just reminded the world that they are the “Central Bank of the Oil Market” keeping supply and demand in balance. The Saudis could easily create supply disruptions that would create enough pain for a very impatient American consumer without going so far as even $200 a barrel oil. There position clearly puts them in the position of extorting Trump into withholding any retaliatory policy punishments such as economic sanctions or military sales freezes. They can continue to chase and murder other people who offend them without any worry of consequences from the US.

    Saudi Arabia has been flirting with Russia. An alliance with Russia could result in the inflict more pain when acting in concert to choke off oil to the US.

    I dont take all these possibilities lightly. Even if it doesn’t come to fruition, the US should immediately brainstorm a gradual lessening of reliance on foreign oil. Including new technologies, wind, solar, natural gas and yes......we should be building nuclear plants without a ten year approval start up timeline.

    Tell the Middle East to go fornicate with themselves.

  10. #60
    Senior Member Teacher Terry's Avatar
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    Trump was never serious about punishing the Saudi ‘s. He loves murderers and dictators. He wants to be a dictator and his son may have been involved with providing the Saudi’s with a hit list.

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