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Thread: Boy, that Dow

  1. #141
    Senior Member kib's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gardnr View Post
    Pension plan buyouts are really a good deal if one thinks they will live a long time. Best offer I ever got equaled less than 5y of accumlated monthly payments. Since my lineage projects I'l exceed 90y? That's a pittance.
    This was piddling along and suddenly they offered about 30% more than the last quarter, close to 11 years of payments - I think they're really pushing for people to self manage and get out of their contract. The amount they offered is enough that if I invest it properly til the day they would have started paying me, I should be able to match or beat the payout they would have been giving me without drawing down the principal, as well as having the freedom to convert this to a Roth along the way. Not to mention I'll never have to deal with these people again in my life, which might make it worth it even if I don't quite succeed. it wasn't a very big pension but I'm pleased to get it at all, as I say, the only promise I trust is my own, so ... fingers crossed the check's in the mail. - I really like the timing, I'm out at market peak even though that just went galloping out of sight.

  2. #142
    Senior Member dmc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kib View Post
    Ah, good luck. I'm dealing with dividend stocks and buying the tiniest nibbles. I have a set return threshold I'm looking for, so I'm not completely aggrieved if the stock goes down more after I buy it, but still, a dollar not spent is a dollar saved.
    Iím in at yesterdayís closing price, so thatís better than the opening.

  3. #143
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    It seems to me the media is whipping people up into a frenzy. We are in a health crisis right now, so yes it's going to affect the market, but it is temporary. It doesn't feel like the sub-prime market crash. That felt like it was going to last a long time and it did. This feels much shorter. I know I'm going a lot on feelings, but I've been in this game for a long time and have seen the ups and downs. The market will come back as it always does, but no one knows when it will reach the 29,551 high from February. Many people felt the market was overvalued and due for a correction. So it may bounce back, but may take awhile to reach that high again.

    Does anyone else have gut feelings about the market? I'd love to hear them.

  4. #144
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    The market is definitely affected by emotion. Personally Iíd have a lot more confidence in a speedy recovery if the president, on Wednesday, had given the speech Biden gave on Thursday. That said, Iíll be holding everything until it recovers.

  5. #145
    Senior Member kib's Avatar
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    My thought: The big unknown is how long CV is going to have a major impact. If it's a fast blow-out and we're all back to life as usual in three weeks, the machine will just bounce back from a bunch of panic selling followed up by a bunch of opportunistic buying. However, if it goes on long enough that the business balance sheets are actually affected significantly, that could take the rest of the year to heal. While I don't blame Trump for the virus itself - he's about as xenophobic as they get and probably would have loved to build a lucite dome around the entire country - I do think if our gearless leader had been more proactive he could have averted the financial chaos he's so afraid of.

  6. #146
    Senior Member SteveinMN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Molly View Post
    The market will come back as it always does, but no one knows when it will reach the 29,551 high from February. Many people felt the market was overvalued and due for a correction. So it may bounce back, but may take awhile to reach that high again.

    Does anyone else have gut feelings about the market? I'd love to hear them.
    I think the market was a little overheated and the reaction to COVID-19 took that into account -- and then some. It's pretty much irrational -- but, then, so many of these same investors are trying to corner the market on toilet paper and bottled water, neither of which figure prominently in treating COVID-19. There's plenty of irrationality to go around.

    I think this thing will have some very long tentacles. Certainly there is the physical cost of illness and death and the possible overwhelm faced by the health care industry. If Americans don't help flatten the curve of incidence, there likely will be no way to treat all those who need treatment and the many more who would not have caught COVID-19 had screening/testing and concepts like social distancing not been pooh-poohed by stable geniuses and the significant number of Americans who do not believe in herd immunization.

    Millions of dollars are being lost with sports teams not playing, theaters closing, and travel destinations keeping the gates closed. That also means no plane flights to and from those attractions, no hotel rooms, no restaurants,...

    The big ripple will be felt by the poorest workers -- the ones who don't get paid to self-quarantine or who can work from home on a company-supplied computer -- the ones who don't get called in to work (and, therefore, paid) because empty hotel rooms don't need cleaning, because no one is at the concession stands at empty arenas and theaters, because there are no meals to cook for airplanes which are not taking off, because there are no customers at tables to wait on, because there's no need to manage a camera at ESPN if there are no sports to broadcast. The people who are not getting paid aren't going to be buying new TVs or cars or signing up for Caribbean cruises when the virus is subdued. Nor are the folks who will have to take unpaid leave to care for sick family members and/or kids who are home for weeks from closed schools.

    For an economy that relies very heavily on consumer spending, having consumers holed up in their houses for weeks on end (it will be weeks, not just a couple-three) will be deadly itself. This will show up in quarterly earnings, which will dampen the spirits of investors and hurt the retirement savings of those lucky enough to be able to invest for retirements or for splurges like vacation homes or nicer vehicles -- or bequests to charitable organizations now sitting on far less value (and maybe receiving less in the future because the market took it out of so many peoples' retirement funds).

    I don't mean to sound apocalyptic. I think the market will largely recover in 12-18 months because, some overheating aside, it was fairly sound. But it's going to hurt many, many organizations in earnings and/or human capital for a few years to come (at least).
    Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome. - Booker T. Washington

  7. #147
    Senior Member catherine's Avatar
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    Steve, I agree. I also don't want to sound doom and gloom, but the impact of the virus will have less to do with the virus itself and more to do with the shattering of income for so many. If this is sustained, what's going to happen to all those people who don't have 6 months of emergency funds? How do people make that up? How do kids who depend on school lunch programs get fed? How do businesses readjust for all the tourism lost in their cities? This feels like it has the potential to be the Great Depression, redux.
    "Do any human beings ever realize life while they live it--every, every minute?" Emily Webb, Our Town
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  8. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by catherine View Post
    Steve, I agree. I also don't want to sound doom and gloom, but the impact of the virus will have less to do with the virus itself and more to do with the shattering of income for so many. If this is sustained, what's going to happen to all those people who don't have 6 months of emergency funds? How do people make that up? How do kids who depend on school lunch programs get fed? How do businesses readjust for all the tourism lost in their cities? This feels like it has the potential to be the Great Depression, redux.
    Catherine and Steve, these are my thoughts, too. The human costs are going to be enormous. We are already seeing individual announcements--my son's friend who works as a nurse at Bowdoin is on "unpaid forlough," for example, as none of those students are returning for the rest of the year. This is an example of a "good" job, a "stable" job, and upends the idea that if you just have a good job that requires education, you will be fine. Everything is interconnected these days. The folks that work at the library in my town are not getting paid for these five weeks, minimum, that started yesterday for them, with absolutely no notice.

    Molly, you asked about the market--I hope I am wrong, but I think those people buying on the dip have not begun to see the dip yet. How can you possibly have this kind of disruption in everyday life and activities and not have profound economic costs, let alone the human costs in terms of the human psyche?

    Anyway, with respect to the market, I hope I am wrong.

  9. #149
    Senior Member SteveinMN's Avatar
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    This situation is shifting very rapidly.

    Since I posted (about 12 hours ago) (!) I've seen news reports that some athletes and a few team and venue owners will be donating money to hourly workers associated with the teams and venues. Now, many times the report/news release states they "will be assisting employees" (emphasis mine), indicating to me that there will be some money paid but it will not fully replace typical earnings. And it doesn't help bars, restaurants, or rideshare drivers who are losing out because there are no customers before and after events. But it's better than just cutting these folks loose.

    I've seen a few local restaurants offering takeout or drive-up service (new to them) rather than just leaving the rooms and kitchens empty. I don't yet know how (or if) money will be shared with front-of-house workers who won't be busy beyond ferrying food out to the front door. But it's an unusual (for those restaurants) approach to keeping the doors open at least a little while longer.

    Second Harvest Heartland is making available Emergency Food Boxes which can be given to those who need them without much physical presence. Drive up, be handed a box, be on your way.

    The Governor of the State of Minnesota has declared an emergency that comes pretty close to banning gatherings of 250 people or more -- or much smaller gatherings if people must be within three to six feet of each other or the gathering includes a significant number of "people at risk" (older, chronic disease, etc.) Schools still are open, but I suspect that is largely a logistical issue giving parents time to set up work from home (if possible) or arrange for child care, meals, etc., and that the guideline will change in the next month or two. The guidelines (not yet law but they could become law) pretty much cancel our April dance (if not our May dance; then we're off for the summer). Several other dance groups have cancelled this weekend's dances, but many did so because their dancing location (school, church, etc.) closed to outside activities. That may have happened at the church at which we dance, but I haven't checked on that yet (or they haven't made that decision yet).

    The Dow was up almost 2000 points Friday. That's a bit of a clawback. But this is now a bear market. I agree with Tybee that we have not yet seen the bottom or even close to it. That will have a ripple effect years down the road as it takes more years (or less consumer spending -- uh-oh! --and more saving) for people to achieve their savings targets (or find they have to work longer before they can retire). This is not specifically a COVID-19-related issue though I think it has been made worse because there are very few adults in the room right now.
    Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome. - Booker T. Washington

  10. #150
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    California: schools are closed, libraries are closed, gatherings of more than 250 is banned, some cities have canceled all events, concerts are being canceled, Disneyland closed, activities like book clubs moved online. Not everyone is but I'm afraid to go to restaurants, not going to coffee shops (well I only went there to hang out and read, have a drink or a sweet on weekends - but who knows maybe even the drive though SBUX close - I drink tea at home on weekdays anyway). And I debate whether to continue going to the gym or not (I'll keep the membership) but wondering how long is this going to continue, doing nothing forever? I mean I may advocate degrowth but I never considered going to the gym, or getting coffee in a MUG, or meeting with a group a huge problem.

    I'm keeping going out to a minimum, to buy groceries (and I've become scared of the supermarket but I'm not subsisting on rice and beans and pasta with no fresh food, unless I have to, and I'd run out of rice and beans anyway that was for self-quarantine if I had corona not a permanent plan - not that much stuff isn't gone from the supermarkets shelves), go to work, buy gas. Leisure shopping even for clothes forget it, thrifting no way etc..

    Whether to keep money in stocks and bonds for retirement, what in a few decades, what me worry? I am absolutely not in favor of it as policy, but if Trump got his stupid payroll tax, I'd invest it in the markets probably, because I think it's an excuse to cut social security and have to survive somehow, so put it all on red. The markets may recover in a decade or so, but we will have much bigger problems by then by far like climate change may make this look minor. Bosses husband works in event stuff I think and has received a layoff notice, but with noone going to restaurants or coffee shops or gyms or whatever, there will be more to come, I don't see how there can't be.
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

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