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Thread: Boy, that Dow

  1. #61
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    The fed is doing QE and that's why the market is so high:

    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/...x-week-period/

    that's a blog, ok fine, bloomberg fwiw:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-the-fed-lost

    And that means for investing? I could not possibly tell you, I'm not that smart, maybe just stick to your allocation if it makes some sense generally.

    But as far as understanding society, the stock market is high because government money is being dumped into it,kinda period. This stock market stuff is going to be used against us, if they want to get Trump reelected on it they will try (well um if the candidate was Bloomberg he'd publish it hahaha gotta love plutocracy).
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

  2. #62
    Senior Member Geila's Avatar
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    I just sold a big chunk of stock to harvest the profits. It was hard to do it since I might miss out on more gains and this particular stock has been performing exceptionally well, but we'll be needing that money in the next couple of years and I decided to err on the side of caution. Now I have to find something relatively safe to park it in.

  3. #63
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    Is it money you will need for planned living expenses, where you want to keep it in cds or a money market type account? Or are you just looking to profit-take and put it in a different kind of stock that is less volatile?

  4. #64
    Senior Member Geila's Avatar
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    Let's see, we'll need about $5k in the next 1-2 months for taxes on a 401k/IRA conversion and a large purchase I just made. Then, in about 1 year, DH might do an unpaid internship (he's switching careers), so we might need living expenses for a few months. And then in about 3 years we will be relocating so I anticipate we'll have some expenses with that.

    I'm considering something like the Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund Admiral Shares (VSGDX) because I just want to park it and leave it, and just pull out what we need when we need it. Of course, the $5k will go straight to savings now.

    Also considering Vanguard California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VCADX) - a bit more risk/reward.

  5. #65
    Senior Member gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iris lilies View Post
    Sure is high.
    Exactly. I recently moved the money I saved in the 401 (K) set up by Scottsdale Healthcare (a local hospital with two facilities that has since merged with another local hospital) to an IRA at Navy Federal Credit Union for this very reason.....I am amazed at how the small amount of money I managed to save back in 2005 has grown and I'm not a greedy person - the returns I have realized are more than enough for me. The market is just way wicked overpriced with insane PE ratios and I felt the need for safety as if something catastrophic does happen, the market sure has a long, long, long way to fall these days.

    I can remember when I was in college in the Fall of 1987 - there the Black Friday event - and I believe then the market sank to something like a 1,700 Dow. And now, 32 years and a few months later the Dow is at 29,000 plus? Just doesn't seem sustainable to me in the long term. Safety sounds good to me these days. Rob

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geila View Post
    Let's see, we'll need about $5k in the next 1-2 months for taxes on a 401k/IRA conversion and a large purchase I just made. Then, in about 1 year, DH might do an unpaid internship (he's switching careers), so we might need living expenses for a few months. And then in about 3 years we will be relocating so I anticipate we'll have some expenses with that.

    I'm considering something like the Vanguard Short-Term Federal Fund Admiral Shares (VSGDX) because I just want to park it and leave it, and just pull out what we need when we need it. Of course, the $5k will go straight to savings now.

    Also considering Vanguard California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VCADX) - a bit more risk/reward.
    If I were in your shoes, I would break it down like this:

    Let's see, we'll need about $5k in the next 1-2 months for taxes on a 401k/IRA conversion and a large purchase I just made.

    I would put 5k into savings/money market checking account.

    Then, in about 1 year, DH might do an unpaid internship (he's switching careers), so we might need living expenses for a few months.

    I would also put this amount into the savings/money market-checking account.

    And then in about 3 years we will be relocating so I anticipate we'll have some expenses with that.

    I would put this amount into VSGDX. I would not fuss around with VCADX worrying about risk/reward.

  7. #67
    Senior Member SteveinMN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmethesimplelife View Post
    I can remember when I was in college in the Fall of 1987 - there the Black Friday event - and I believe then the market sank to something like a 1,700 Dow. And now, 32 years and a few months later the Dow is at 29,000 plus? Just doesn't seem sustainable to me in the long term.
    Back on Black Thursday and Black Monday, in 1929, the market lost about a quarter of its value, roughly the same amount it lost on Black Monday, 1987. If the market fell by that same percentage next week, it still would close at around 22,000. Granted, the 1929 market continued to slide into the Great Depression, with stocks losing about 90% of their value from their 1929 top. But the trend has been up: the market close that Monday in 1929 was just 230.07.

    While none of us have been in the market since the '30s, market expansion has been steady despite recessions, wars, crummy economies, etc. In the meantime, buying something that cost $1,000 even just back in 1987 will cost more than twice that today. I think we can consider the market broadly sustainable and most people should have some exposure to it as a hedge against inflation.

    It still makes sense, though, to take some profits when you get them, especially when one gets to the stage in life at which there isn't a decade or two to recover from a serious setback. We've moved some stock market gains to investments that offer less upside and -- more importantly -- less downside. But cashing in now? Probably not the best move for most people.
    Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome. - Booker T. Washington

  8. #68
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    I believe it's artificial. Trump's friends will keep it going up until after the election. Then....who knows WTH will happen!

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gardnr View Post
    I believe it's artificial. Trump's friends will keep it going up until after the election. Then....who knows WTH will happen!
    I'm feeling that too. Like SteveinMN, we moved some of our gains to more conservative investments as we are at an age where we cannot withstand a long recovery period.

  10. #70
    Senior Member kib's Avatar
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    There used to be a pretty reliable inverse relationship between gold and conservative bonds, and stock. To my way of thinking, money would get shifted from conservative investments to risky ones if the market /economy / jobs outlook seemed to be on a roll, pushing up stock prices and dropping those of less desirable gold and bonds in a bull market, and vice versa if it looked shaky. I am seeing no decline in the cost of purchasing conservative investments, which makes me think this vast influx of stock investing money is New money, not reallocation. Where's it coming from? If it's new money, can we trust it and ride its coattails up up up, or is this another untrustworthy bubble? diced-up supbrime mortgages that turned out to be a Whole lot less risk-free than perceived thanks to improper rating was a primary cause of the 80s mess. ... I'm trying to "follow the money" this time and I just don't have enough knowledge / info to do it ...

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