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Thread: Conavirus......

  1. #591
    Senior Member SteveinMN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    I believe that trying to time the market is foolish even in situations like this. We can live on a pension and a few minor ( more or less ) guaranteed sources and let the portfolio ride. On the 31st i plan on rebalancing back to 60/40 equities/debt. I’m in it for the long run.
    Pretty much our take, too. We were about 60% stocks going into the collapse. I did move most of our HSA money to an investment choice more likely to preserve it since we may need that money to pay health insurance premiums until we're Medicare age. But I'm leaving the rest be.

    The rising cost of living is going to chew away at all of our savings, even with mild or almost no inflation. We have to have at least some money in stocks to be able to preserve our purchasing power. Given the volatility of the market right now, it's anyone's guess where bottom is and when it starts going up again, it's going to go fast. The push down was over-done, the ride up will be over-exuberant. You don't want to miss it.
    Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome. - Booker T. Washington

  2. #592
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    I didn't know they made fiat silver.
    considering our government seems to be trying to kill us, I guess helping to pay the funeral expenses is only proper.
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

  3. #593
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    I believe that trying to time the market is foolish even in situations like this. We can live on a pension and a few minor ( more or less ) guaranteed sources and let the portfolio ride. On the 31st i plan on rebalancing back to 60/40 equities/debt. Im in it for the long run.
    What asset allocation do you have now?

  4. #594
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugal-one View Post
    What asset allocation do you have now?
    Lately its been oscillating all over the place; but right now its around 54% equities, which I intend to rebalance to 60% at the end of the quarter.

  5. #595
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tybee View Post
    I think the key part is "We can live on a pension and a few minor (more or less guaranteed sources and let the portfolio ride."

    I think your plan is very sensible, but what you describe is not true for everyone.
    Prior to retiring, I was able to buy my military service years by transferring in part of my deferred compensation into my pension account. I also set up a small annuity and bond ladder. This and (eventually) social security provides our basic income plus a margin for error and minor disasters. The rest remains in a pretty conventional 60/40 portfolio of index funds for an inflation hedge, bigger disasters and bequests.

    Not everyone has access to a pension, and some pensions strike me as very poorly funded, but I think anyone can use other tools to provide themselves a (fairly) safe income floor underneath a more volatile risk portfolio. Steve Vernon and Moshe Milevsky have written some useful books on the subject.

  6. #596
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveinMN View Post
    Pretty much our take, too. We were about 60% stocks going into the collapse. I did move most of our HSA money to an investment choice more likely to preserve it since we may need that money to pay health insurance premiums until we're Medicare age. But I'm leaving the rest be.

    The rising cost of living is going to chew away at all of our savings, even with mild or almost no inflation. We have to have at least some money in stocks to be able to preserve our purchasing power. Given the volatility of the market right now, it's anyone's guess where bottom is and when it starts going up again, it's going to go fast. The push down was over-done, the ride up will be over-exuberant. You don't want to miss it.
    You and I are pretty much on the same page. I have HSA and RHS accounts in stable value or short term treasury funds using the same logic you are.

  7. #597
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    From layoffs to loss of investment funds I think the economic impact of the virus will be much worse than the health one. The beneficiaries will be the medical industrial complex, the feeding frenzy media and manufacturers of goods people hoard, with pretty much everyone else suffering. Mnuchin is talking 20% unemployment. I think it will be a recession at a minimum, possibly a depression.

  8. #598
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yppej View Post
    From layoffs to loss of investment funds I think the economic impact of the virus will be much worse than the health one. The beneficiaries will be the medical industrial complex, the feeding frenzy media and manufacturers of goods people hoard, with pretty much everyone else suffering. Mnuchin is talking 20% unemployment. I think it will be a recession at a minimum, possibly a depression.
    I think it's going to be "interesting" to see how things shake out. Will people learn from this and change their lifestyles or will mass consumerism return once the virus is contained/treatable? What will become the new "normal"? And I think the divide between the "haves" and "have nots" is going to get even wider, quicker.
    To give pleasure to a single heart by a single act is better than a thousand heads bowing in prayer." Mahatma Gandhi

    Be nice whenever possible. It's always possible. - Dalai Lama

  9. #599
    Senior Member SteveinMN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by happystuff View Post
    Will people learn from this and change their lifestyles or will mass consumerism return once the virus is contained/treatable? What will become the new "normal"? And I think the divide between the "haves" and "have nots" is going to get even wider, quicker.
    Some will change their lifestyles. Many won't. How many people can resist the advertising and the media and the lure of new and shiny objects when all of those promote the idea of spending more and more? How many people do we know who grew up in poverty and have seemingly overcompensated for that part of their lives by spending and consuming lavishly?

    Some, certainly, will see this as a wake-up call. Many who find themselves without paychecks (essentially without warning) may decide they really do need an emergency fund. Others may conclude that extending themselves over several credit cards was a poor choice. Some will be home for several weeks and find that that clarifies unresolved issues in their lives -- choice of job, choice of partner, etc. and there will be changes coming from that awareness.

    I am hopeful that there will be the resurgence of a notion that's been beaten down for about 40 years now -- that some things can be minimized or defeated only by us banding together, regardless of personal beliefs or status. COVID-19 is not something that can be warded off by prayers to the "correct" deity or by having millions in the bank or by being LBGTQA or by living in a city or the country. Perhaps others will recognize that "when we all do better, we all do better". Since this runs counter to many powerful interests, however, I'm not holding my breath in hope.
    Success is to be measured not so much by the position that one has reached in life as by the obstacles which he has overcome. - Booker T. Washington

  10. #600
    Senior Member catherine's Avatar
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    Well said, Steve.
    "Do any human beings ever realize life while they live it--every, every minute?" Emily Webb, Our Town
    www.silententry.wordpress.com

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