My DIL’s relatives in Poland have lost 2 people in their 60’s. They were healthy so definitely lives cut short.
My DIL’s relatives in Poland have lost 2 people in their 60’s. They were healthy so definitely lives cut short.
I might suggest, as might any basic textbook on statistics or epidemiology, that "average age" isn't a useful characterization of the population for this context....Originally Posted by Yppej
I think they even cover this in high-school-level math/science classes.
You might want to look at the whole shape of the distribution, for instance.
"Herd immunity" is a cruel joke anyway, considering it's becoming apparent that the reprieve is only temporary--people are already starting to be reinfected, and dying, in some cases. People who embrace this approach are disturbingly callous about all the death and disability that's bound to result. Clearly, they don't think they're at risk, and to hell with everyone else.
Ask any epidemiologist, and they'll tell you this is a crackpot idea. Note that Trump's current advisor on the subject is a radiologist, not a public health or infectious disease expert.
I think people are putting too much faith in the vaccine as the silver bullet cure and then everything will be fine. I've seen numbers something like a third to a half of the population will refuse to get the vaccine. And then to be approved the vaccine has to only be 50% effective. In the less promising outcome, it could be that only a fourth of the population will have protection. Herd immunity may be a figment of someone's imagination, but there is a possibility that a vaccine will not protect enough people to totally eliminate the disease or even remove it as a significant health threat. Hopefully things will work out better with more people getting vaccinated and better vaccine protection, but there's no guarantee.
The problem is much of the western world doesn't know how, or perhaps it would be much more accurate to say isn't capable, of dealing with the virus. Europe is a mess now again too. As for western countries New Zealand, yea one of the few interesting exceptions. Who knows why they were capable of choosing competence when so many wealthy countries weren't. I'm a huge fan of Jacinda Ardern but it might be more than just leadership that made them so motivated to do all the right things. Anyway we're not able to get leaders like that elected, the best we can do is not elect the absolute worst again.
As for schools there is probably more exposure at schools, but kids are being sent to daycare and exposed as is now. Because the having kids at home forever really is untenable for many (young kids anyway, teenagers it depends on the teenager I'd figure). So it's not like in person schools are really being compared to no exposure. It's schools compared to whatever other measures people with kids who generally also have to keep earning a living, are resorting to to keep body and soul together these days.
Trees don't grow on money
It's too bad the U.S. didn't take this disease as seriously as several Asian countries, New Zealand, and others. At this rate, we'll be dealing with it for years.
A tale of two counties.
My mom grew up in a small town in western Kansas. Current population 1000. I still have two cousins and an aunt and uncle living there. They currently have 14 active cases and have had 3 deaths.
San Francisco county, on the other hand, currently has about 400 active cases and has had 131 deaths. Yet we have nearly 1000x the population of my mom’s hometown. By taking this seriously early on And with competent science based leadership we’re in a much better place. If we were like mom’s hometown we’d currently have nearly 13,000 active cases and almost 3000 deaths.
I think regardless of the approach taken everyone will be dealing with covid for years. If you're an island like New Zealand are you going to permanently shut yourself off from the rest of the world? Japan did that for centuries until Admiral Perry came so it's possible, but I think unlikely.
If you don't isolate your small corner of the world, given the limitations of vaccines that Rogar pointed out you will still be dealing with covid. If you shut down large sectors of your economy as soon as you reopen the risk comes back. Unless people are going to live on self-reliant homesteads where they grow all their own food yes we will be dealing with this for years. It"s not like wearing masks will make it go away.
I am reading Hidden Valley Road now about a family that had six schizophrenic children. We accept now that schizophrenia is hereditary, but at the time medical "experts" and scientists blamed poor mothering. We have a lot to still learn about NOVEL coronavirus, and the people who think they have all the answers don't.
One thing I am not hearing about is research into conditions that could help nudge the virus into mutating into a less lethal form. If it can live in the host without killing the host that gives it an evolutionary advantage. I think this is an avenue worth exploring.
I started that book, Yppej, and it's fascinating, and yeah, I can still remember in the 70's in college learning about schizophrenia as being caused by bad interactions with mothers, with mothers having a "style" of communication--kind of a Catch 22 style, it was, that supposedly resulted in schizophrenia.
We do learn over time, and it's a good thing to keep an open mind in all matters of illness and health.
There are currently 9 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 9 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote