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  1. #4641
    Senior Member Rogar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yppej View Post
    We are also getting bogus data on covid positivity rates. Many people now buy home tests and if they are negative don't report this to anyone, but if positive do tell their doctor and seek advice on quarantining etc. So with many more negative than positive test results reported the covid positivity rates are inflated.
    The common measure here and I think somewhat universally is positive cases per 100,000 population and new cases. How do you think your theory distorts that number?

  2. #4642
    Senior Member Yppej's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar View Post
    The common measure here and I think somewhat universally is positive cases per 100,000 population and new cases. How do you think your theory distorts that number?
    Looking at test data for colleges and universities where everyone is subject to testing and all results are reported -

    In my area positivity rates average 1.5% over the course of the semester with 90% vaccination.

    Positivity in the community at large is between 4 and 5% with 67% vaccination.

    The general population is 75% as vaccinated as the college population. We know vaccination greatly reduces viral load and transmission. So the college population should have a 25% lower transmission rate than the general population, but it is in fact around 300% lower. From this I infer that there are many negative tests in the general population that are not being reported as well as tests not being conducted. If everyone were tested as they are at institutions of higher ed, instead of just people who feel sick or believe they have been exposed, we would see that the concern about supposedly high positivity rates and community spread is not justified.

  3. #4643
    Senior Member iris lilies's Avatar
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    I randomly checked our county stats in Missouri.

    St. Louis city ( it is its own county—weird, I know) has less than 50% of its populace fully vaccinated, meaning both doses. Politically it is screaming neon blue.

    Saint Charles county, home of Republican centrists, soccer moms, and middle America and generally maligned by city dwellers to be tight assed conservatives, are well above the 50% mark.

    I’m not sure why enlightened people in the city are dragging our vaccination numbers down. Well I could guess but it’s not a popular sentiment.

  4. #4644
    Senior Member Rogar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yppej View Post
    From this I infer that there are many negative tests in the general population that are not being reported as well as tests not being conducted.
    As I understand the cases per 100,000 population measure, negative tests are not used in the calculation. So with more testing that could reveal more postive cases, the number could actually be under reported.

  5. #4645
    Senior Member iris lilies's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar View Post
    As I understand the cases per 100,000 population measure, negative tests are not used in the calculation. So with more testing that could reveal more postive cases, the number could actually be under reported.
    Thanks for this, I couldn’t figure out what negative Covid test would have to do with Jeppy’s statement.

    Also, are they measuring the total population, or the total population of people eligible for vaccination? In other words the under five years old group cannot get vaccinations. Are they counted? Until recently, older youth could not be vaccinated either.
    Last edited by iris lilies; 11-27-21 at 1:36pm.

  6. #4646
    Senior Member Rogar's Avatar
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    I believe it is for thetotal population. This is what I could find...

    "To calculate the daily rate of new infections, we look at the average number of newly confirmed cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 residents. Using the population size in the calculation helps us more easily compare larger and smaller counties. A larger county would be expected to have more cases because of the larger population, but expressing the rate per 100,000 residents enables a more equal analysis.

    Due to variations in the availability of testing, test-seeking behavior, local outbreaks, and widespread testing in congregate living settings, these data may not accurately represent true community transmission and should be considered with additional factors affecting the community in consultation with District Public Health, who can provide more guidance about the scenario in your county"

    It sounds like some places further break that down by vaccination status. If you can access the NYT, cases per 100,000 in their daily map updates is one of the primary measures to determine hot spots across the US and by county. I assume it is used commonly by local health departments.

  7. #4647
    Senior Member Yppej's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar View Post
    As I understand the cases per 100,000 population measure, negative tests are not used in the calculation. So with more testing that could reveal more postive cases, the number could actually be under reported.
    I believe you are talking about the incidence rate and I am talking about the test positivity rate.

  8. #4648
    Senior Member Yppej's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iris lilies View Post
    I randomly checked our county stats in Missouri.

    St. Louis city ( it is its own county—weird, I know) has less than 50% of its populace fully vaccinated, meaning both doses. Politically it is screaming neon blue.

    Saint Charles county, home of Republican centrists, soccer moms, and middle America and generally maligned by city dwellers to be tight assed conservatives, are well above the 50% mark.

    I’m not sure why enlightened people in the city are dragging our vaccination numbers down. Well I could guess but it’s not a popular sentiment.
    The biggest predictor of whether someone will get a vaccine is age. Older people of all political persuasions are more likely to get vaccinated as they are most at risk. There is also probably no choice in the matter if you are a nursing home resident.

    In my city the lowest vaccination rates of those 12 and over - who have had access to the vaccine for enough time to get fully vaccinated - is among 20 somethings, followed by thirtysomethings.

    I would suspect IL that in a majority minority city the average lower ages of minority groups might play a role - things like lower life expectancy and more minor children per household. But I have not seen any analysis of this, probably because it is not popular to think this way as you note.

  9. #4649
    Senior Member Rogar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yppej View Post
    I believe you are talking about the incidence rate and I am talking about the test positivity rate.
    My conclusion is that no measure is absolutely perfect., but niether is grossly over or underestimating things. You might differ.

    My state is offering monoclonial antibody clinics for at risk people with mid or moderate symptoms. That's something I don't quite understand yet, but it seems like an underutilized tool.

  10. #4650
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    The Mayo Clinic maintains charts and maps which show the hotspots and trends in COVID cases.

    For the USA, the average daily cases per 100,000 population was 36 on 9/27/2021. The data improved to 22 on 10/27/2021. As of 11/25/2021 the data worsened to 29.6

    With a couple of clicks on the webpage, you can see a state or territory's hotspots or trends. It looks like the trends are better for Texas (maybe because Texans are outdoors more?) ... and worse for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

    If the Omicron variant develops into a "fifth wave" in the US, I would expect the trend graphs will track it.

    http://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map

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