Charles Hugh Smith's economic outlook can be summarized as "Toppling Dominoes of Depression".
In Smith's sequencing of collapse:
1. Pandemic triggers mass layoffs. Uncertainty is the new normal. Capital and trade flows are disrupted.
2. High-cost small business fold, money velocity collapses, as savings soar.
3. Zombie corporations rush to borrow billions, delaying their insolvency.
4. Service sector dependent on top 5% household spending implodes. Technical and managerial layoffs surprise "the protected class".
5. State/local government tax revenues plummet ... local government employment slashed.
6. Loan defaults and bankruptcies explode higher, triggering catastrophic losses in banking and derivatives. (Smith might be thinking of Collateralized Loan Obligations, owned by Insurance Companies and pension funds? End-game for zombie corporations?)
7. "Safe" sectors crushed: tech, health care, higher education, finance.
http://www.oftwominds.com See blog, July 31, 2020
The metaphor of falling dominoes may distort the reality of the next few years of value destruction. I think Smith has left out another type of severe loss, which I expect to occur, as the "Golden Age of Fraud" is detected by external auditors. And I think there will be further losses due to arson, looting, vandalism.
So, I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.