Part of me wonders if all the worry over what would happen if a large number of immigrants were allowed in from countries south of us is unfounded. The last time we had a large influx of immigrants in an uncontrolled fashion and allowed them to become citizens and integrated them into society was a little over 40 years ago when the Mariel boatlift happened. Practically overnight Miami and south florida were changed forever. Forty years later the city is a hub of international business focused on trade with all of Latin America. No one would have predicted that when we decided to let any Cuban that came here become citizens. But they settled in and pursued the American dream and made it their own.
I suppose that all depends on what "large" is. 433 million people live in South America, 181 million in Central America, and 127 million in Mexico. 742 million people.
There were 1 million immigrants from Ireland from 1820 to 1845, at a time when the population of Ireland was about 7.5 million (average weighted handwave, note I stopped just as the Potato Famine data starts). 13.3% of the population. 1 million over 25 years.
Say 13.3% of the 742 million people South of us decide to freely move here. ~99 million people, over 25 years. The population of the USA today is 328 million people. The projected population of the USA in 25 years, not assuming this immigration, is 388 million.
So the new immigrants would add 99 million to that projected population, for a population of 487 million, and they would be 20.3% of the population.
Given that Colombia has taken in 1.5 million migrants and has given them access to education, health care, work permits, and ten years authoriization to rem
ain in the country, no, I don't see this as a crisis. I would agree this is a challenge. Colombia has risen to it - will we? Rob
This just seems to be a natural fluctuation to me, but of course not to those poised to excoriate President Biden for deeds done and undone. Two months in, of course everything happening is his fault.
Thirty years ago the US population was 248 million. 80 million less than now. Adding another 99 million over the next 25 years doesn’t necessarily sound problematic. And Mitch the even solve some problems such as providing solvency to the social security trust fund, assuming that the majority of the new immigrants were of working age.
But I also don’t think it’s a question of everyone or no one. But rather, whether the US can absorb without significant harm quite a few more immigrants from south of our border than we currently do. I don’t see any particular reason that they wouldn’t work as hard to live the American dream as anyone already here. As some people like to point out, our economy is not a zero sum prospect. Adding in a bunch more immigrants doesn’t mean less jobs to go around. It means more jobs are needed to provide goods and services to more people, and more people to come up with new business ideas that haven’t been done before.
The maximum sustainable population of the U.S. is almost certainly less than we have, but the good news is birth rates are dropping, so absent unlimited immigration, it shouldn't be too hard to lower the population.
The economy may not entirely be a zero sum prospect (that would be a claim that there is zero technical progress I suppose), but many aspects of the economy are to a degree a zero sum prospects due to limited natural resources (let's see how inhabitable many places are in 25 years, but we don't even need to speculate about 25 years, the limits are now with water and so on). And though this is theoretically solvable the limits are frankly infrastructure as well (is anyone building all the new housing, new freeways etc. we will need? And if one takes issue with the reality of needing to build new freeways etc., well noone is building alternatives that are fully viable as alternatives either). But that's theoretically solvable, yes but don't be surprised if noone wants to base their policy opinions on things they have no reason to believe will happen. Because as for building new housing and infrastructure .. we can't even house the people here now, maybe do that first.
Trees don't grow on money
Apparently the little desert town of Ajo, Arizona is up in arms due to migrants being dropped there. I've been debating taking the Valley Metro bus down there to check it out - for $4 each way I can get from the far Phoenix Westside to Gila Bend and then on to Ajo, Arizona. Would be a funky cheap day trip if nothing else. Rob
I’ve been to some hot places, but nowhere as hot as Gila Bend. Used to visit a friend there from time to time, and learned a new appreciation for the icy North.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)