Another email from Astrid. She says there seems to be a sense that the war may not last much longer due to Putin's (alleged) health issues. Austrians are looking more towards the economic fallout of this insanity now. She says every time she goes to Billa (an Austrian supermarket chain) she notices price increases and out of solidarity, Austrians are cutting back on meat. She says the fear of the Russian military appearing at Austria's border is dwindling. Not much else to report - at the moment. Rob
I hope the fact that Russian morale is in the tank--they're forced to fight with woefully inadequate supplies (like 1943-era weapons) against an army of well-equipped and totally dedicated Ukrainians--and many are trying to figure out how to legally get back home--will help bring an end to this atrocity. Reports indicate that 30% of Russian troops are casualties now.
I don’t think outdated equipment is their major problem. Others, the Israelis for instance, have worked wonders with jury-rigged castoffs. The bulk of the Ukrainian arsenal is very similar.
Their primary failures have been in staff planning, logistics, doctrine and training. Their military culture makes no allowance for initiative at the junior officer/NCO level, which is essential for combined arms operations. The Ukrainians learned from their defeat in Crimea. The Russians learned nothing. I think that has made a bigger difference than some Javelin missiles and M777 howitzers.
The Russians could still win through attrition and sheer brutality, but it won’t be through military professionalism. It could well mean they end up as a minor partner to the Chinese.
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