View Full Version : Greece...at this moment in time anyway
gimmethesimplelife
7-12-15, 4:38pm
It looks as I type this that Greece is getting closer to obtaining a bailout to keep afloat but this time there will follow through with the strings placed upon it and the tone seems to be very serious about this as Germany has released an outline of a proposal for a five year Grexit but with humanitarian aid and some haircuts on the debt. After the five years, Greece could reapply to the EU but the EU is under no obligation to take them back and I'd bet Tsirpas might understand that.
I am so all over the map on this one - I see so many avenues of blame and fault here and I boil it down to this - how much would someone like me in Greece suffer? How much would I suffer as a lower paid Greek citizen for decisions that I had no control over? Making it personal like this helps to take the banks and the wealthy, powerful people out of the scenario and boils it down to everyday struggling people. I side with whatever minimizes the nightmare for the everyday people - I don't know that this is what is on the table at the moment but total collapse without a bailout doesn't sound like the rank and file are doing to have bright, sunny days anytime soon.
What's your take on the recent developments in the Greek Drama? Rob
IshbelRobertson
7-12-15, 5:26pm
I visit Greece at least twice a year, and have dione so for nearly 40 Years. I spent nearly five years of my childhood on a Greek island. I have many friends in Greece.
There is another thread on the situaion in Greece, which summarises the situation.
Williamsmith
7-12-15, 6:27pm
My understanding of the situation is not shaped totally by American mainstream media and so as such I believe to be more realistic. Greece is saddled with debt that it can never hope to repay. Those who lended the money did so irresponsibility and so bear part of the blame. I.e. France and Germany. Projections on the potential of The Greek economy were so irresponsibly over optimistic. And the same irresponsible lenders spread their plague to Spain and Italy thus sealing the fate of Greece as scapegoats for the entire EU. The Greek debt could easily be forgiven without damaging the the EU if it weren't for Italy and Spain. So Greeks will be hung for the shortcomings of all.
So when being punished one can only hope for consistency. Unfortunately the EU is on the one hand demanding Greek repayment and on the other hand pouring money into the Ukraine for questionable purposes. Germany is the pot calling the kettle black. Had it not been for all the forgiven debt over the ages, Germany would be in ruins.
Everyone in the EU will some day accept the fact that the whole kit and Caboodle is bankrupt and rebuild from there but they will delay the arrival of this as long as they can but when it flames out it will be in a blaze of glory.
analysis influenced heavily by dmitri orlov ....ClubOrlov...Financial Nonsense Overload.
The whole EU project strikes me as a mass of contradictions only an idealist could love. How can you promise security without strength, unity without sacrifice, prosperity without risk? How can you have a single monetary policy and multiple fiscal policies, and expect anything but chaos? The old national fault lines seem to be re-emerging, with basically the Germans bailing out the Greeks as a sort of expensive hobby for the next five years, and nobody liking it. The old hatreds seem to be mixing with the new entitlement mentality.
What will happen when Spain or Italy start to crumble?
The whole EU project strikes me as a mass of contradictions only an idealist could love.
haha.. You rang?
I actually agree with you about the mess, and you've stated it well.
On the one hand, I do NOT agree with the European Union pressing the Greeks into submission with unrealistic and harmful austerity measures; on the other hand, come on--the Greeks have to learn the basics of a balance sheet, as do we all. And those who feel Greeks don't deserve a bail-out, well, did the corporate recipients of our melt-down deserve one? Begs the question, who really deserves help anyway?
Here is a one-sided but interesting look at the issue from the progressive standpoint (Chris Hedges):
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/we_are_all_greeks_now_20150712
haha.. You rang?
I actually agree with you about the mess, and you've stated it well.
On the one hand, I do NOT agree with the European Union pressing the Greeks into submission with unrealistic and harmful austerity measures; on the other hand, come on--the Greeks have to learn the basics of a balance sheet, as do we all. And those who feel Greeks don't deserve a bail-out, well, did the corporate recipients of our melt-down deserve one? Begs the question, who really deserves help anyway?
Here is a one-sided but interesting look at the issue from the progressive standpoint (Chris Hedges):
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/we_are_all_greeks_now_20150712
I don't see it as so much a question of fairness as financial and political capacity. Even Germany's mighty neomercantilist export machine can't generate enough wealth to keep Southern Europe afloat forever, even if their voters would tolerate it. It seems more practical (and kinder) in the long run to cut them loose from the euro to exercise the time-honored expedients of inflation and repudiating debts.
catherine
7-13-15, 10:07am
I don't see it as so much a question of fairness as financial and political capacity.
I'm with you in this case. I guess my question was a rhetorical and philosophical one--how help seemingly always has to be deserved. George Bernard Shaw tackles the issue via Alfred P. Doolittle in Pygmalion.
The base problem here probably comes down to the national attitude of not only the Greek citizens but their elected leaders as well. They have managed to go for a very long time expecting the government to pay their way and care for them with little or no concern for where the money is coming from. And now that the piggy bank at home has run dry, they would like the EU to continue to support them so they don’t have to take responsibility for their actions. Unfortunately for them, the world doesn’t work that way.
I’d be pretty embarrassed if I were Greece. For that matter, speaking strictly as an American, if any Europeans were unsportsmanlike enough to come over here and point out how we’ve racked up this many trillions of dollars on our national credit card in such a short period of time I’d be pretty embarrassed myself. It’s nothing to be proud of.
If there is a lesson to be learned here it might be this: Greece is looking for a parental figure to pull them out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. If that happens to an economy the size of America’s (which is currently unfolding before our eyes) there is no father or mother figure big enough to rescue us.
The difference is that the US has the capacity to at least partly inflate the debt away, at least at this point, without losing the benefits of being the world's primary reserve currency. We are in many ways slightly less screwed up than most of the major economies.
I think that the Germans (mainly if not solely) bear some of the blame as well. They wanted to keep their export markets in a strong currency those countries couldn't support on their own to maintain a favorable balance of trade without reckoning on the inevitable result. In a way, two foolish national policies combined into something incandescently stupid.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 11:43am
Alan:
What are the implications of your last paragraph? What are you getting at? Just curious.
catherine
7-13-15, 11:51am
Alan:
What are the implications of your last paragraph? What are you getting at? Just curious.
I think he's saying that if that happens, we're scr*wed. He's right.
Alan:
What are the implications of your last paragraph? What are you getting at? Just curious.
Where debt is concerned, there is no other world economy large enough to save us from ourselves. What happens when we become Greece?
Edited to add: ^What Catherine said.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 12:03pm
Alan:
If the US becomes like Greece...hmmm... I dunno. We'd have another Great Depression? I doubt that we'd have much social unrest. Americans are largely a passive folk (in practice, though Americans do talk a good game from time to time. haha)
My guess is that public pensions would be emptied, public property would be sold to corporations, and people would just work more jobs and more hours.
Thoughts?
Where debt is concerned, there is no other world economy large enough to save us from ourselves. What happens when we become Greece?
Edited to add: ^What Catherine said.
Jobs will wither.
Capital will either flee or be consumed.
Demagogues will flourish.
Gimcrack ideologies will sprout like mushrooms, each with it's preferred scapegoat. Blame will be attached to corporations, immigrants, bankers, China, unfashionable ethnic or religious groups, unrestrained capitalism, unbridled socialism ( I suggest Canada).
Public services will decline, while rapacious bureaucrats roam the land in search of things to tax and regulate.
Organized and DIY crime will expand. Life will be the only commodity that becomes cheaper.
Our friends will despair, our enemies will weigh the opportunities.
Economists will claim to have seen it coming.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 1:42pm
LDAHL:
Sounds bleak.
LDAHL:
Sounds bleak.
On the positive side, it may solve the obesity epidemic.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 1:47pm
How would it do that?
I think when Alan runs out of money to keep the US economy afloat, we can all just move to Mexico.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 1:53pm
Here is my question: If the US pulled a Greece, what happens to the richest people in the US? The people who were called "The 1%" a few years back?
I ask that out of curiosity.
But what happens to a regular workin' man? I ask that because I just work for a living, nothing fancy or important.
ApatheticNoMore
7-13-15, 1:57pm
The only way it could ever happen in the U.S. is if the BRICS actually do scuttle the U.S. as reserve currency and dominant global bankster and empire etc.. I see that is necessary for it to ever happen in the U.S.. Until then everyone takes dollars.
But even in that case the U.S. wouldn't be entirely analogous to Greece, the U.S. does have it's own currency, Greece doesn't (just it would hurt more if it wasn't the reserve currency - there may be inflation in that case, but not forced into austerity - you only get that type of situation when you give up your power to a transnational entity .... although some have suggested the trade agreements are similar, it's hard to believe they are - bad enough as they are).
LDAHL:
Sounds bleak.
In the resulting inflationary environment, food and fuel will get more expensive, forcing us to eat lower on the food chain and walk/bike more.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 2:13pm
I am not sure what "inflationary" means -- I went to public schools -- but walking and biking more is probably good.
The only way it could ever happen in the U.S. is if the BRICS actually do scuttle the U.S. as reserve currency and dominant global bankster and empire etc.. I see that is necessary for it to ever happen in the U.S.. Until then everyone takes dollars.
But even in that case the U.S. wouldn't be entirely analogous to Greece, the U.S. does have it's own currency, Greece doesn't (just it would hurt more if it wasn't the reserve currency - there may be inflation in that case, but not forced into austerity - you only get that type of situation when you give up your power to a transnational entity .... although some have suggested the trade agreements are similar, it's hard to believe they are - bad enough as they are).
Inflation is just unfocused "austerity".
If you think trade agreements are bad, I would submit that no trade or allowing government to choose winners and losers would be worse.
Ultralight
7-13-15, 2:15pm
People think the way I live is austere as it is. Maybe I'll be okay if/when the US gets Greecey.
ApatheticNoMore
7-13-15, 2:19pm
No trade is a strawman, it will never happen. We already have very low trade barriers with most of the TPP countries, like I said the whole "no trade" idea is completely ridiculous. They aren't really trade agreements, the current crop, they are corporate rule agreements.
But my only point in mentioning them briefly in this thread as opposed to every other political thread, was because some had suggested they would limit the ability of a country to issue it's currency at will (and take the consequences of that of course, but nonetheless). Which of course is an ability any country with it's own currency has now.
I don't know if people will be thinner, well yes if they are starving they will be, but poverty at present correlates with obesity not thinness, even though many poor people can't afford cars and so on (they take public transit obviously). The rich 1% would be ok as they tend to own real assets in addition to paper assets. Working people I don't know - they always get screwed I suppose.
Here is my question: If the US pulled a Greece, what happens to the richest people in the US? The people who were called "The 1%" a few years back?
I ask that out of curiosity.
Capital is pretty mobile these days, and responsive to even the hint of threat. And a fair number of the 1% didn't get that way by being stupid... If there are functional economies outside the US, and the whole world isn't brought down by the US-as-Greece scenario, I expect the 1% to remain so.
If the US economy implodes, my vineyard will still produce grapes/wine, my farmland/greenhouse will still produce food, there will still be salmon/cod/halibut swimming in the ocean, my solar panels will still produce electricity, the wind will still blow to move my boat, etc. etc. If all my evil-1% investments were in highly-speculative derivatives contracts, I'd be worried, but I invest in boring things that produce Needful Things.
Williamsmith
7-13-15, 3:44pm
Capital is pretty mobile these days, and responsive to even the hint of threat. And a fair number of the 1% didn't get that way by being stupid... If there are functional economies outside the US, and the whole world isn't brought down by the US-as-Greece scenario, I expect the 1% to remain so.
If the US economy implodes, my vineyard will still produce grapes/wine, my farmland/greenhouse will still produce food, there will still be salmon/cod/halibut swimming in the ocean, my solar panels will still produce electricity, the wind will still blow to move my boat, etc. etc. If all my evil-1% investments were in highly-speculative derivatives contracts, I'd be worried, but I invest in boring things that produce Needful Things.
All of this sounds very idealistic and wonderful until a group of thugs or organized militaristic opportunists come by and relieve you of your grapevine, your farmland/greenhouse, all the good fishing spots, your solar panels and your boat. These are indeed needful things and a plan to keep them a needful thing to.
All of this sounds very idealistic and wonderful until a group of thugs or organized militaristic opportunists come by and relieve you of your grapevine, your farmland/greenhouse, all the good fishing spots, your solar panels and your boat. These are indeed needful things and a plan to keep them a needful thing to.
Well, I live on an island well offshore the mainland that's a fair bit of a pain for "thugs or organized militaristic opportunist" to get to. I know my neighbors, the community is pretty small, and I am a member of an elite paramilitary organization here that can summon 100+ trained, conditioned, and experienced people with an out-the-door response time of < 90 seconds fully geared, and on-scene time of several minutes more. Not so worried about the zombie mutant gangs...
Ultralight
7-13-15, 4:11pm
bae:
Are you serious?
bae:
Are you serious?
Indeed so. We drill and train constantly, have equipment and communications gear, and full support and participation from local law enforcement.
Why, just the other day we got a call, and in under an hour located, assessed, and treated a trauma victim on the mountain here, and then took several hours to get her safely down eight 150 foot pitches down the side of the mountain, without jostling her broken bones too much.
That same night we responded to a local hotel on fire that had dozens of guests stuck on the upper floors. Aggressive fire attack prevented any real damage or any loss of life.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-FWrsbGZ0fvM/VaG-LZMH0ZI/AAAAAAAAQMI/EA_MP_ZLDPQ/s912-Ic42/turtlerescue.JPG
Is that you in the stretcher, Bae? :~)
Is that you in the stretcher, Bae? :~)
Almost, if it had been another few hundred feet :-) We had to carry all that junk, including the rigging gear you don't see here, all the way up to the top to begin with, ouch ouch.
I'm the much wider fellow with his back turned to the photographer at the bottom of the litter, hoisting my other large partner over a ditch. This was the very bottom of the run, where there was a wide enough trail that we could then put a wheel on the litter and roll it out the rest of the way, which is so ever much easier.
I hope all that work doesn't wear you out prematurely, bae. When I was younger, I worked in an E.R. and back-up ambulance. On some ambulance runs, I did some heavy lifting......especially when I didn't want to look like a weak female. I think my joints suffered.
Take care of yourself!
Bae - I read an article today in the New Yorker about the earthquake and tsunami risk in the Pacific Northwest. Do you and your community have a tsunami plan in place also? I'd love to hear about it. I served on an emergency response team for the mental health debriefing stuff for about a decade when i lived in ohio.
Bae - I read an article today in the New Yorker about the earthquake and tsunami risk in the Pacific Northwest. Do you and your community have a tsunami plan in place also?
It's a work-in-progress. We got some funding a couple of years ago to help develop a model, which was completed this winter. We are now plotting evacuation sites/routes, and will hopefully get signs up later this year/early next year, as well as some more public education on the matter.
The tsunami impact from a major Cascadia event isn't too terrible for most of the islands here due to the terrain both above and below the water, but we're in severe danger of tsunamis generated from local smaller faults or undersea mud or rockslides, which can produce large waves with almost zero warning :-(
The earthquake part of a Cascadia event will be pretty horrific though. We continue to plan and prepare for that one, but it's a bit daunting - we will lose a lot of local roads which will partition our communities (which is why we have more fire/rescue stations and gear caches and communications infrastructure than might appear to be "frugal".). And we'll be pretty much on the end of anybody else's response/priority list, we figure we'll be on our own for weeks.
I was in the Loma Prieta quake in California, and some of the small mountain communities there were cut off for a long time.
Still, it's not a question of "if", but of "when".
I just read that New Yorker article this morning as well, a very nice piece.
I was in Alaska for the 9.2 earthquake in 1964. Thankfully we had the military bases and they pulled together a lot of response. We also did not lose the hospital or the large high office highrises. It was amazing to me how fast our subdivison got back to normal. We found out we were built on bedrock and had fairly minor damage.
My guess is that public pensions would be emptied, public property would be sold to corporations, and people would just work more jobs and more hours.
Thoughts?
Sounds like you have been keeping up with current events.
http://www.app.com/story/news/local/new-jersey/2015/06/09/chris-christie-unions-pension-court-decision/28731887/
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/ct-chicago-bonds-met-20150709-story.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/175286/hour-workweek-actually-longer-seven-hours.aspx
Williamsmith
7-14-15, 6:01am
While I understand the fascination with Greece, I also am not wanting to accept the direct correlation between Greek economic status and the United States. There are too many making the prediction that as Greece goes so goes the rest of the debt ridden countries. There are plenty of ways this can unfold or be mitigated but only one way it will happen. Preparing for each contingency is problematic if not impossible. And so I see conflict between the preparations and the optimist in me. There is frankly too many trying to make their dire predictions come true so that they can justify the expense of the preparations. At least , simpler living can be a part of that transition.
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