View Full Version : Brexit/Bremain
Good luck UK.
I’m grateful that most serious decision I will need to vote on is a choice between a duplicitous uber-hack who lectures me about inequality in a $12,000 Armani jacket and a bloviating reality TV host with delusions of grandeur.
On the one hand, I hate to see the people who defied Phillip II, Napoleon and Hitler submit to bureaucratic decrees on the proper content of sausages. On the other, I’d hate to see the continent lose the Anglo-Saxon influence.
With the population so evenly divided, it's hard to see whatever is decided tomorrow as the end of it.
gimmethesimplelife
6-22-16, 9:41am
Are they really referring to remaining as "Bremain"? Lol. I hadn't heard that yet. Rob
IshbelRobertson
6-22-16, 11:22am
I thank you, LDAHL. our postal votes for LEAVE were sent last wee.
The often vicious comments made by both sides have been astonishing. The REMAIN camp keep crying 'Woe is me'. I think if we do stay in the EU , the Tories will turn on Cameron.
The brexit...? This was based on the term GREXIT when Greece were threatening to leave the Euro abd no doubt if Spain decide to hold a referendum it would be referred to as Spexit and Spremain.
My view? The pundits say it is too close to call. I think the remains will win by a slim majority. But, hey, what do I know? I thought Scotland would vote YES by a considerable margin in the Independence referendum!
If Brexit results in a Leave majority, I expect to see a Texit movement shortly afterwards.
Given the size of it's economy, I would think Britain could negotiate a deal like Norway's. Unless Brussels is feeling vindictive.
Given the size of it's economy, I would think Britain could negotiate a deal like Norway's. Unless Brussels is feeling vindictive.
I'm thinking Britain has retained enough negotiating power to overcome vindictiveness...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_the_United_Kingdom
I'm thinking Britain has retained enough negotiating power to overcome vindictiveness...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_the_United_Kingdom
Reduce your tariff on beef, or the living will envy the dead?
Ultralight
6-22-16, 12:13pm
Texit
As in Texas?
IshbelRobertson
6-22-16, 1:41pm
Given the size of it's economy, I would think Britain could negotiate a deal like Norway's. Unless Brussels is feeling vindictive.
That's something you can rely on!
Just like our spurious belief in the UK/US 'Special Relationship'..... We need to believe in ourselves and our ability to forge new relationships in the world. Wave goodbye to both European countries and the USA, whose govt, at present and in the past, seem to despise us.
Not to divert from the subject, but I'm fascinated by the fact that there were only 8 female British monarchs + one Scottish one (Mary Queen of Scots). You can barely count two of them (Matilda and Lady Jane Grey). So of the remaining six who had a natural death, two of them have had the longest reigns in British history, and Elizabeth I clocks in 8th longest reign--so HALF of the those female monarchs are in the top ten of longest reigns. And their reigns were exemplary. Based on this, I think the rules of succession should be changed, don't you, Ishbel? :) (And please correct me if I misstated anything).
IshbelRobertson
6-22-16, 2:44pm
as far as I know, The rules have already changed. Oldest child of the monarch will be heir, regardless of sex. The antiCatholic rules have also been commended.
But this has little influence on the Referendum!
as far as I know, The rules have already changed. Oldest child of the monarch will be heir, regardless of sex. The antiCatholic rules have also been commended.
But this has little influence on the Referendum!
Oh, that's right. I think I did read something about that.
Sorry for the diversion. I'm very interested in hearing what happens tomorrow... such a momentous vote! I hope it turns out for the best for you!
IshbelRobertson
6-22-16, 6:02pm
I hope so, too. As a LEAVE, I think I ,m on a hiding to nothing!
I understand that Irish and Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK can vote in the referendum. Call me parochial, but that strikes me as taking democracy a bit far when you give non-citizens a vote on issues of national sovereignty.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 9:30am
I am calling it for Bremain.
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 10:26am
Frankly, what you call for is of no interest. You don't have a horse in this race.
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 10:28am
I understand that Irish and Commonwealth citizens residing in the UK can vote in the referendum. Call me parochial, but that strikes me as taking democracy a bit far when you give non-citizens a vote on issues of national sovereignty.
Presumably because as foreigners with the right to be here, the Tories assume they will all be BRemainers!
Ultralight
6-23-16, 10:34am
Frankly, what you call for is of no interest. You don't have a horse in this race.
Rude.
iris lilies
6-23-16, 10:51am
Frankly, what you call for is of no interest. You don't have a horse in this race.
I expect to see Wall Street respond, regardless of the outcome. I am not looking forward to that, but that is my small horse n this race.
What are your reasons for voting to exit?
This morning DH and I talked about his Scottish auntie, now deceased, who is likely telling us from her grave "I told you so!" She was adamantly against joining the EU. But she is Swiss so that background probably formed the basis of her opinion.
Will the votes in Scotland be a higher percentage of Remain than the overall UK vote? Thats the impression I get from one article I read, but I dont know if that is accurate.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 10:53am
I expect to see Wall Street respond, regardless of the outcome. I am not looking forward to that, but that is my small horse n this race.
I have "investments" too. They dwindle away more and more each day. I am sure this won't help...
Presumably because as foreigners with the right to be here, the Tories assume they will all be BRemainers!
At least some of the Tories. They seem somewhat split over the issue.
sweetana3
6-23-16, 11:13am
Two of my friends in the UK are on opposite sides of the issue and feel strongly about their positions. One is because of her perception of what increased immigration over the last 20-30 years has caused. The other is from benefits they feel they have received from being part of the EU and also probably because she just bought a house in France and plans to retire there.
I have zero idea of what is the best choice. But leaving the status quo will be destabilizing for all involved. Good or bad, who knows?
I expect to see Wall Street respond, regardless of the outcome. I am not looking forward to that, but that is my small horse n this race.
As of this morning's opening, the consensus of the financial markets is that the Bremain camp will prevail. Of course, the vote is about much more than economics. You don't necessarily vote your pocketbook over an issue of national identity.
Some Britons seemed annoyed enough over being lectured to by foreign and domestic elites as to where their interests lie that it could fuel additional Brexit sentiment. Personally, I think Mr. Obama may have harmed the remain cause a bit.
iris lilies
6-23-16, 11:43am
I have "investments" too. They dwindle away more and more each day. I am sure this won't help...
Dwindling in this bull market? You need to look into that.
catherine
6-23-16, 11:51am
Rude.
But she has a point. Plus you are advocating for the position opposite of hers, and since she's the Brit here, she has a right to be dismissive of the opinions of us Americans who tend to have a lot of opinions on a lot of things that are none of our business.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:05pm
Dwindling in this bull market? You need to look into that.
I have tried. They just tell me that for me to make any money on my investments that the market needs to be a whole lot better.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:06pm
But she has a point. Plus you are advocating for the position opposite of hers, and since she's the Brit here, she has a right to be dismissive of the opinions of us Americans who tend to have a lot of opinions on a lot of things that are none of our business.
Actually she does not have a point. I am not advocating one way or the other. I am merely making a prediction. But as Iris noted, my "investments" (aka: Giveaways to rich people) are impacted.
iris lilies
6-23-16, 12:19pm
Actually she does not have a point. I am not advocating one way or the other. I am merely making a prediction. But as Iris noted, my "investments" (aka: Giveaways to rich people) are impacted.
In your situation I would take charge of my life in a bigger way, including my investments, rather than passively accepting things are bad.
But hey, thats just me.
Do not misconstrue this to mean I always make money on investments, haha, not by a long shot! But in the past 6 months the market has been up at a silly high rate so I cant see why you are poorer for it but sure blame those rich guys. Thats the easy thing to do for the passively inclined.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:31pm
In your situation would take charge of my life in a bigger way, including my investments, rather than passively accepting things are bad.
But hey, thats just me.
Do not misconstrue this to mean I always make money on investments, haha, not by a long shot! But in the past 6 months the market has been up at a silly high rate so I cant see why you are poorer for it but sure blame those rich guys. Thats the easy thing to do for the passively inclined.
In the past 6 months my rate of return has been 2.7. Is this bull market rates?
iris lilies
6-23-16, 12:39pm
In the past 6 months my rate of return has been 2.7. Is this bull market rates?
How is this "dwindlng?"
ApatheticNoMore
6-23-16, 12:41pm
How does one take better charging without studying investing for like a decade and devoting much free time to it? I don't believe without doing that it's actually possible to really be in better charge. One can go further out the risk curve but that's not being in charge that's just taking on more risk.
iris lilies
6-23-16, 12:43pm
How does one take better charging without studying investing for like a decade? I don't believe without doing that it's actually possible to really be in better charge. One can go further out the risk curve but that's not being in charge that's just taking on more risk.
Three words:
Vanguard index fund.
Done.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:44pm
How is this "dwindlng?"
I ain't no stock trader but 2.7 rate of return sounds pathetic.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:45pm
Three words:
Vanguard index fund.
Done.
I have a life cycle fund, and it sounds pretty similar to this vanguard thing.
iris lilies
6-23-16, 12:46pm
How does one take better charging without studying investing for like a decade and devoting much free time to it? I don't believe without doing that it's actually possible to really be in better charge. One can go further out the risk curve but that's not being in charge that's just taking on more risk.
There is no investment without risk.
That UL chooses to present his profit rate as losing money is--interesting. But it cant be part of a rational discussin about investments.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:46pm
How does one take better charging without studying investing for like a decade and devoting much free time to it? I don't believe without doing that it's actually possible to really be in better charge. One can go further out the risk curve but that's not being in charge that's just taking on more risk.
I mostly agree with you. My life is already bogged down with tons of stuff I find annoying or boring. Why would I want to spend a decade learning about investing in detail when it is unpleasant to me?
Ultralight
6-23-16, 12:47pm
There is no investment without risk.
That UL chooses to present his profit rate as loosing money is--interesting. But it cant be part of a rational discussin about investments.
Does 2.7 keep up with inflation?
iris lilies
6-23-16, 12:57pm
Does 2.7 keep up with inflation?
Yep.
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
Three words:
Vanguard index fund.
Done.
I learned that the hard way.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 2:04pm
I learned that the hard way.
...?
Investing isn't rocket science. It doesn't take years of study. My kid has been managing her assets since she was 10, with just a little oversight and advice. I gave a totally clueless relative the other day, who had come into a rather large inheritance, 30 minutes of advice over coffee and he was set.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 2:08pm
Investing isn't rocket science. It doesn't take years of study. My kid has been managing her assets since she was 10, with just a little oversight and advice. I gave a totally clueless relative the other day, who had come into a rather large inheritance, 30 minutes of advice over coffee and he was set.
What advice would you give me or ApatheicNoMore?
...?
Bitter experience over the years has taught me.
1. Only an idiot tries to time the market.
2. Transaction costs and taxes matter more than you might think.
3. Diversify til it hurts.
4. If someone tells you he can consistently add alpha through active management, punch him in the face and run.
What advice would you give me or ApatheicNoMore?
Stage One: "Listen to Iris Lilies"
Stage Two: read John Bogles "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing", which will tell you "listen to Iris Lilies" in more detail.
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:24pm
At least some of the Tories. They seem somewhat split over the issue.
You are correct. I believe Michael Gove to be an honest man, But Boris? Expediency
comes to mind!
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:27pm
No, merely blunt.
You seem to DELIGHT in poking people with a sharp stick. And, in the main, on topics you know little about. As we would say. 'Gonnae wind yer neck in, son?'
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:31pm
.
Some Britons seemed annoyed enough over being lectured to by foreign and domestic elites as to where their interests lie that it could fuel additional Brexit sentiment. Personally, I think Mr. Obama may have harmed the remain cause a bit.
You are correct! His weighing in incensed many British people, Ditto Merkel, Juncker, et al.
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:34pm
But she has a point. Plus you are advocating for the position opposite of hers, and since she's the Brit here, she has a right to be dismissive of the opinions of us Americans who tend to have a lot of opinions on a lot of things that are none of our business.
Than you, Catherine.
The poster reminds meof many of my students.... I would expect more from a man of mature years.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 2:40pm
Frankly, I cannot wait to say I told you so. ;)
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:41pm
I expect to see Wall Street respond, regardless of the outcome. I am not looking forward to that, but that is my small horse n this race.
What are your reasons for voting to exit?
This morning DH and I talked about his Scottish auntie, now deceased, who is likely telling us from her grave "I told you so!" She was adamantly against joining the EU. But she is Swiss so that background probably formed the basis of her opinion.
Will the votes in Scotland be a higher percentage of Remain than the overall UK vote? Thats the impression I get from one article I read, but I dont know if that is accurate.
I have a number of reasons.
UK sovereignty mainly. After all, we have had democracy longer than many countries of Europe.
Immigration. As you know, we are a very small island. It was announced today that the UK population has reached 65 million. Immigration impacts on schools, hospitals, the rest of the NHS and other things.
The SNP have bloc voted to stay in so, presumably, will their followers.
I still maintain I expect the vote will be to Remain, but that doesn't mean I like it!
IshbelRobertson
6-23-16, 2:46pm
Frankly, I cannot wait to say I told you so. ;)
Except, if you bothered to read my comments, I have stated more than once, I think the Bremains will win.
I surmise your school reports contained the old British comment: 'Could do better'.
Ultralight
6-23-16, 2:51pm
I surmise your school reports contained the old British comment: 'Could do better'.
Rude.
gimmethesimplelife
6-23-16, 9:46pm
Three words:
Vanguard index fund.
Done.IL, I'm sure this is good advice. Only problem is you really need to be middle class to invest with Vanguard.....they really have high minumums. Not all of us make the cut I'm afraid. No snark here, just wanted to be a voice for the millions of Americans unable to heed your advice due to stagnant low wages. Rob
IL, I'm sure this is good advice. Only problem is you really need to be middle class to invest with Vanguard.....they really have high minumums.
What do you think their minimums are?
A Vanguard account is free if you do electronic statements.
Individual funds there typically have a $1000 or $3000 minimum. That's not "high" - frankly, you have no business "investing" if you don't have $1000 that you don't need, you should get your emergency fund under control first....
ToomuchStuff
6-24-16, 1:01am
Rude.
Are you talking about your judgements, or hers?
ToomuchStuff
6-24-16, 1:16am
IshbelRobertson
Seeing reports that England is voting to exit, and Scotland is voting to stay. What, if any, has been the discussion of that possibility in your country?
Three words:
Vanguard index fund.
Done.
haha! how did you know--that's exactly what I have my paltry savings in--and it's doing just fine. I'm happy with it.
But getting on to the news at hand--holy cow!!! They're Brexiting!!!!
IshbelRobertson
6-24-16, 4:13am
IshbelRobertson
Seeing reports that England is voting to exit, and Scotland is voting to stay. What, if any, has been the discussion of that possibility in your country?
I am just absorbing the totally unexpected (to me) LEAVE Result!
THE SNP 'rule' in Scotland. They have always said they would vote REMAIN as a bloc and urged their party faithful to follow their lead, which they seem to have done in huge numbers. Nicola Sturgeon will, no doubt, call for another Independence referendum. I believe the vote will go her way. Scotland will then apply to be part of the EU again, although she laughs off suggestions that such a reapplication would be necessary, as the EU would accept them (SNP, independent Of ENGLAND) with minimum fuss. Ah hae mah doobts!
And then..... Well, who knows.
Ultralight
6-24-16, 7:22am
I was wrong.
I was wrong.
"It's difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future."
Ultralight
6-24-16, 8:46am
"It's difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future."
I still think it is fun to try.
I am just absorbing the totally unexpected (to me) LEAVE Result!
THE SNP 'rule' in Scotland. They have always said they would vote REMAIN as a bloc and urged their party faithful to follow their lead, which they seem to have done in huge numbers. Nicola Sturgeon will, no doubt, call for another Independence referendum. I believe the vote will go her way. Scotland will then apply to be part of the EU again, although she laughs off suggestions that such a reapplication would be necessary, as the EU would accept them (SNP, independent Of ENGLAND) with minimum fuss. Ah hae mah doobts!
And then..... Well, who knows.
I seem to recall the SNP making equally optimistic assumptions about EU membership and post-split UK economic accommodations back in 2014.
Apart from a turbulent period in the financial markets, it will be interesting to see if any other dominoes start falling. There appears to be a significant strain of Euroskepticism in the Netherlands. Perhaps they will be tempted to bolt now.
IshbelRobertson
6-24-16, 9:27am
The talk pre our referendum was that Sweden were only waiting to see our results before starting to push for SWexit. Marine Le Pen of France is also congratulating us... I'm not sure I'm happy about being applauded by right wing nationalist parties.
Nicola Sturgeon hints heavily at demanding another referendum for Scots independence. Many English wags have begged her to allow the rest of the UK a voice and that if she did so, she'd be guaranteed the decision she wants!
The markets, foreseeably plunged but are recovering. I think we will be in for a period of further austerity. We live in interesting times.
David Cameron's resignation was not a surprise. But, God help us, we have Boris as the front runner...
Ultralight
6-24-16, 9:33am
I'm not sure I'm happy about being applauded by right wing nationalist parties.
Would you have expected them to react in any other way?
I think we will be in for a period of further austerity.
Why?
The markets, foreseeably plunged but are recovering.
I'm hearing that "the experts" are predicting that things should stabilize after the short positions are covered. There's a lot of cash flowing into US Treasuries at the moment, but that generally starts reversing after people calm down.
ToomuchStuff
6-24-16, 9:44am
I am just absorbing the totally unexpected (to me) LEAVE Result!
THE SNP 'rule' in Scotland. They have always said they would vote REMAIN as a bloc and urged their party faithful to follow their lead, which they seem to have done in huge numbers. Nicola Sturgeon will, no doubt, call for another Independence referendum. I believe the vote will go her way. Scotland will then apply to be part of the EU again, although she laughs off suggestions that such a reapplication would be necessary, as the EU would accept them (SNP, independent Of ENGLAND) with minimum fuss. Ah hae mah doobts!
And then..... Well, who knows.
I have to admit to a lot of ignorance about how Scotland is ruled. I wasn't sure since they didn't separate, how much they could get away with (staying with the EU without being a separate entity), and I thought that Scotland had its own currency. So I am trying to wrap my brain around the three currency thing (and not sure how much of the UK had to accept Scottish currency, or if it is primarily border towns), as well as the potential border issues if they stayed in the EU. (UK's own version of build a wall to keep immigrants out)
IshbelRobertson
6-24-16, 10:34am
Scotland (as well as Wales and to an extent Norn Ireland) have devolved 'parliaments'. I cannot speal for the other two, but Scotland has autonomy over health and education, for instance, but not immigration, national security and the armed forces - and other things, tose are just examples.
When David Cameron thought the independence referendum would br a Yes vote, he panicked and made last ditch offers to Scotland, eg they could have more control of various things like taxes raised in Scotland.
We have the absurd situation that university education is free in Scotland for Scots and students of other EU countries, but other UK citizens have to pay in Scotland! Granted, English students pay in England, but it seems crazy that an Italian gets in free, whilst an English student, whose family contribute to the pot that the devolved Scots parly uses to,provide free education, doesn't.
Scotland rules by a devolved system, whose budget is mostly shared out via our National govt in Westminster.
The last independence campaign caused a lot of heartache and division both in Scotland and the Uk as a whole. Sturgeon's demands that 16 year olds and some foreigners could vote but that Scots living in other parts of the UK couldn't rankled with a lot of people. I know of two families where siblings have not spoken since that vote and also a father and son, similarly estranged. The 16 year old vote was a cynical ploy. 18 is the voting age for all other voting matters in the UK.
The idea that the UK will have to deal with SNP demands at the same time as negotiating the exit with the EU is a scarey scenario.
gimmethesimplelife
6-24-16, 10:36am
Wow. All I can say is Wow. I for one did not believe Brexit was going to pass. I wonder what this means for the future of the EU? And if other member countries are going to have exit referendums now? Rob
IshbelRobertson
6-24-16, 10:38am
Forgot to add. Scotland and England have the same currency, ie the pound sterling. What confuses people is that Scotland has its own bank notes, but they are guaranteed in the same way as the English, Welsh and Norn Irish pound. English businesses don't have to accept Scottish notes and as so few of them circulate in areas outside London, some people worry that they are being given fakes.
ToomuchStuff
6-24-16, 10:47am
Forgot to add. Scotland and England have the same currency, ie the pound sterling. What confuses people is that Scotland has its own bank notes, but they are guaranteed in the same way as the English, Welsh and Norn Irish pound. English businesses don't have to accept Scottish notes and as so few of them circulate in areas outside London, some people worry that they are being given fakes.
Thank you for explaining that. I understood they were called the same (although thought they had a Scottish name as well as the pound), but misunderstood there to be a rule that they had to be accepted in the UK. (kind of like having a bill from a different mint, here)
Also you quoted "It's difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future." Who did you quote?
I disagree with that statement, so am wondering the context. It is easy to make predictions, it is difficult to make accurate ones.
I have a number of reasons.
UK sovereignty mainly. After all, we have had democracy longer than many countries of Europe.
Immigration. As you know, we are a very small island. It was announced today that the UK population has reached 65 million. Immigration impacts on schools, hospitals, the rest of the NHS and other things.
The SNP have bloc voted to stay in so, presumably, will their followers.
I still maintain I expect the vote will be to Remain, but that doesn't mean I like it!
Happy Independence Day Izzy!
IshbelRobertson
6-24-16, 11:58am
I think someone else made that post, not me!
Thank you, Alan ... Now, perhaps we should declare it an annual holiday, like the USA's!
I think someone else made that post, not me!
Thank you, Alan ... Now, perhaps we should declare it an annual holiday, like the USA's!
I have heard that quote attributed both to Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra.
Ishbel:
Wondering if there is any buyer's remorse going on today, now that it's all sinking in? I'm reading reports...
iris lilies
6-25-16, 2:44pm
Isabel:
Wondering if there is any buyer's remorse going on today, now that it's all sinking in?
Oh gosh, according to one NPR broadcaster, probably those who voted to Exit do not really know what they are doing. So no, according to NPR.
I listed to NPR for a few hours on the day after the Exit vote because I knew they would be covering it on several shows. One useful thing I learned, only someone's opinion of course, but it sounded authoritative, was about regulations.
Someone from St. Louis called in, a guy who manufactures something sold all over Europe, who complained that this set business transaction back 25 years since he would now need to negotiate many sets of regulations rather than one set.
The expert on NPR said that no, it is very likely that the UK will follow those same regs. He gave the example of Switzerland, a country not part of the EU but they accept EU regulations anyway.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brexit-vote-referendum-european-union-immigration-1.3650880
Well, I am reading that the English youth are horrified that the oldsters (plus 60's) who voted by looking in the rearview mirror of a mystic past have deprived their youth of opportunities to live, move and work in 27 countries thus deciding a future with which the oldsters do not have actually live. It is so sad that the youth every time pay the price. Society currently 'kicks the can' of all the extended debt to their shoulders by not deciding to take the necessary cuts to services and benefits now, have enormous multilevel government debt that they will be expected to repay and so many limitations due to job loss or low-level income.
Trump or no, it is not just about the immigrants! Apparently this was the selling point for the 'leave vote' campaign. Deal with the immigrant and the world will return to way it was years ago. I heard this from several older friends who visit England each year. After discussing the issue with family over there, the common theme was: If only the immigrants hadn't come in, England would have remained just the way it used to be.
The over-65's voted to leave by 58% with only 16 years of actually living with the consequences; 18-24 voted to remain by 64% and an average of 69 years of living with the consequences.
Banks are already talking about moving their headquarters out of England. How many more important, well-paying jobs will be lost?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/millennial-brexit-vote-1.3650826As the results of Thursday's nail-biting Brexit vote came rolling in, some of the strongest reactions came from young people in the U.K.
London-based political pollster Joe Twyman previously told CBC News that younger voters were more likely to vote Remain, but they were not in the age group targeted by Brexit campaigns.
"There may be a proportion of young people who strongly want to stay in the EU, but don't actually get out to vote," Twyman said. "Getting those people engaged is crucial."
They were certainly engaged once it was clear that Brits had decided to leave the EU by a margin of just two per cent. The hashtag #NotInMyName began trending on Twitter early Friday morning, with many users denouncing the results.
The story is not over yet.
IshbelRobertson
6-25-16, 5:32pm
If the young felt that strongly, perhaps more of them should have turned out to vote?
My children were Remain voters. Some of that can be laid at the door of them not knowing the UK before the EEC then renamed EU. They felt that we were wrong to vote exit, we feel they were intent on keeping THEIR status quo.
Are we going to have a period of austerity? Undoubtedly, as I have said before. Will we get through it? Yes, we will.
I think a lot of Brexit voters are feeling buyer's remorse. I am not one of them!
I think anyone that voted Brexit hoping for a return to the past is going to be very disappointed. It's a completely different world than when Britain decided to join the EU. Britain won't just get their old spot back, they'll have to carve out a completely new one. And there will likely be years of painful transition in between.
IshbelRobertson
6-26-16, 9:36am
And we who made an informed choice know that. It's the eejits that didn't research the consequences who will bleat and moan.
I read somewhere that parliament still has to ratify this - is this true? Could it be scuttled at this point?
ApatheticNoMore
6-26-16, 11:10am
I'm sympathetic to leaving, but I don't consider myself an expert on the subject (although the idea that I'm specifically not allowed to have an opinion because I'm an American - yea as soon as the rest of the world stops having an opinion on Donald Trump as president then you might maybe have a case (but funny they seem to be FULL of opinions on that!!!). But I don't at all consider I know as much not living there.
Although you may want to celebrate independence you really don't want to imitate the U.S. in terms of holidays (or vacations) in general, as every country in the world gets more paid holidays pretty much.
The UK never was as badly in the binds of the EU as say Greece though as they always had a fairly advantageous position in it, in part because the UK kept it's own currency. How those other countries got screwed beyond all measure by the EU is they gave up their currencies.
When the youth have to leave the country to find work things are already beyond messed up. I'm not saying if you are young and that's the only opportunity you don't vote your interest if that's what you see it being, but it already indicates a situation very far gone.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brexit-vote-referendum-european-union-immigration-1.3650880
Well, I am reading that the English youth are horrified that the oldsters (plus 60's) who voted by looking in the rearview mirror of a mystic past have deprived their youth of opportunities to live, move and work in 27 countries thus deciding a future with which the oldsters do not have actually live. It is so sad that the youth every time pay the price. Society currently 'kicks the can' of all the extended debt to their shoulders by not deciding to take the necessary cuts to services and benefits now, have enormous multilevel government debt that they will be expected to repay and so many limitations due to job loss or low-level income.
Trump or no, it is not just about the immigrants! Apparently this was the selling point for the 'leave vote' campaign. Deal with the immigrant and the world will return to way it was years ago. I heard this from several older friends who visit England each year. After discussing the issue with family over there, the common theme was: If only the immigrants hadn't come in, England would have remained just the way it used to be.
The over-65's voted to leave by 58% with only 16 years of actually living with the consequences; 18-24 voted to remain by 64% and an average of 69 years of living with the consequences.
Banks are already talking about moving their headquarters out of England. How many more important, well-paying jobs will be lost?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/millennial-brexit-vote-1.3650826As the results of Thursday's nail-biting Brexit vote came rolling in, some of the strongest reactions came from young people in the U.K.
London-based political pollster Joe Twyman previously told CBC News that younger voters were more likely to vote Remain, but they were not in the age group targeted by Brexit campaigns.
"There may be a proportion of young people who strongly want to stay in the EU, but don't actually get out to vote," Twyman said. "Getting those people engaged is crucial."
They were certainly engaged once it was clear that Brits had decided to leave the EU by a margin of just two per cent. The hashtag #NotInMyName began trending on Twitter early Friday morning, with many users denouncing the results.
The story is not over yet.
The hysterics resulting in certain quarters from the Brexit vote are reminiscent of the period following the 2000 US election. CNN asks if the wounds will ever heal, and reports on the "Regrexit" petition. A whinging Brit pens a New York Times opinion piece about changing to Irish citizenship. Slate hopefully offers the possibility that the referendum is advisory in nature and that the political class could ignore it and carry on as normal. The media frantically seek out voters claiming "buyer's remorse". We are to believe this is a pivotal moment in history, reversing three generations of statesmanship. Surely only chaos and war will result.
The chattering classes seem so invested in their own sense of being infallibly right that they can only conceive of the Brexit voters in terms of fear, hate and ignorance. It's all the fault of "elderly xenophobes", voting against their own interests as explained to them by their cosmopolitan betters. The whole thing has a sort of "What's the Matter with Kansas" ring to it.
They seem incapable of understanding the idea that democracy may operate best at the local level, and that there are legitimate arguments to be made against outsourcing sovereignty. That the EU's actual performance in dealing with the various military, financial and humanitarian crises of recent years has been less than impressive. That supranational bureaucracies aren't necessary for free trade.
I think that there were good arguments for both sides of this particular question. I don't think that there is any excuse for the condescending nastiness of the losing side.
ToomuchStuff
6-27-16, 1:45am
I'm sympathetic to leaving, but I don't consider myself an expert on the subject (although the idea that I'm specifically not allowed to have an opinion because I'm an American - yea as soon as the rest of the world stops having an opinion on Donald Trump as president then you might maybe have a case (but funny they seem to be FULL of opinions on that!!!). But I don't at all consider I know as much not living there.
Isn't there a difference between having an opinion and "calling" for something. It isn't much different then the Brits having an opinion about Trump and yet they can't vote for or against him.
The media seems to be making a case for a global trend of developing nationalism and an allusion toward Trumpism. Whether it is having to figure out how to handle immigration or if it's trade agreements, I wonder if it was a mechanism to keep cooperation and communication more open. There will probably be times of conflict between the EU or other nations, or cases where one could help another and becoming more insular will not help.
In the case of Brexit, it seems like there were problems that could be solved but it was more like, I don't like the game and I quit.
The media seems to be making a case for a global trend of developing nationalism and an allusion toward Trumpism. Whether it is having to figure out how to handle immigration or if it's trade agreements, I wonder if it was a mechanism to keep cooperation and communication more open. There will probably be times of conflict between the EU or other nations, or cases where one could help another and becoming more insular will not help.
In the case of Brexit, it seems like there were problems that could be solved but it was more like, I don't like the game and I quit.
Trade is good. Diplomacy is good. Mutual defense is good. But none of those things require a massive central bureaucracy to regulate the most minute details of life. The old EEC provided a free trade zone without a currency cartel that seems to be unraveling fairly early in it's existence. I can well understand that some Europeans might reject the whole "ever closer union" thing in favor of greater self-determination.
I think the media is betraying a certain bias in it's characterization of people wanting a greater degree of self governance as ignorant racist primitives.
I think the media is betraying a certain bias in it's characterization of people wanting a greater degree of self governance as ignorant racist primitives.
I am seeing stories of increased violence and other mayhem toward immigrants in Britain because they aren't already gone yet. And Brexit isn't even a week old yet.
I am seeing stories of increased violence and other mayhem toward immigrants in Britain because they aren't already gone yet. And Brexit isn't even a week old yet.
Regrettable incidents like that do happen, and they are wrong. It is also wrong, because it springs from a similar impulse, to use them as a brush to tar the majority of the British electorate.
So hard to tell at this point whether Brexiting will serve Britain well or ill. OTOH, I think about Abraham Lincoln and how our country was almost broken in two, and how much sacrifice was made in order to remain one Union (United we stand; divided we fall). I wonder what would have happened if the North and South shared the continent along with our Canadian and Mexican neighbors as separate countries. What would have happened?
Also, until fairly recently there was no EU. It was amazing what each individual nation of Europe was able to accomplish occupying small geographies, independent language, currency, and government.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I wish Britain well as all the dust settles.
ApatheticNoMore
6-28-16, 11:45am
Local governance is only good if you can get good governance (it's not good if you only end up being lead by local idiots rather than far away idiots) so it remains to be seen, but it can be tried.
The EU's great hope was to reduce the possibility of another war through shared border as I understand it and that it did accomplish.
ToomuchStuff
6-28-16, 1:07pm
The UK should be used to exiting by now. How many of their colonies have exited? Ireland and Scotland may be next.
Laughing thinking of an old history teacher, as the joke would have been QE came into an empire and left an island.
The EU's great hope was to reduce the possibility of another war through shared border as I understand it and that it did accomplish.
I think the US military commitment of the last seventy years or so may have had something to do with it as well.
I think countries that trade with one another are probably less likely to see something to gain by going to war. I'm not sure, however, that the UK establishing it's own regulations on cheese presents much of a threat to world peace.
IshbelRobertson
6-28-16, 5:32pm
The UK should be used to exiting by now. How many of their colonies have exited? Ireland and Scotland may be next.
Laughing thinking of an old history teacher, as the joke would have been QE came into an empire and left an island.
Jingsm mah sides are ferr sair wi' thon joke...
Jingsm mah sides are ferr sair wi' thon joke...
Ishbel, "noo ah feel like greetin'" because you're making think of my MIL. That's exactly what she would have said.
The over-65's voted to leave by 58% with only 16 years of actually living with the consequences; 18-24 voted to remain by 64% and an average of 69 years of living with the consequences.
What I thought was particularly interesting was that just over 20% of the 18-24 crowd showed up to vote. Not entirely sure why that figure is under-reported so I'll just stick with the usual suppressed-media-conspiracy-theories of such matters. If the word gets out in the US it could be a call to arms for millennials on this side of the pond, but I won't hold my breath for either learning by example or a general succession of apathy.
What I thought was particularly interesting was that just over 20% of the 18-24 crowd showed up to vote. Not entirely sure why that figure is under-reported so I'll just stick with the usual suppressed-media-conspiracy-theories of such matters. If the word gets out in the US it could be a call to arms for millennials on this side of the pond, but I won't hold my breath for either learning by example or a general succession of apathy.
I remember the same thing happened here in 2004 - younger folks were quite unhappy with some of our elected in Washington, but no one came out to vote.
IshbelRobertson
6-29-16, 4:38am
I made that point earlier!
Too lazy to vote, despite media reports that the referendum would impact greatly on younger voters, and then have the temerity to whinge.
IshbelRobertson
6-29-16, 4:43am
Isabel, "noo ah feel like greetin'" because you're making think of my MIL. That's exactly what she would have said.
Truly, I am heartsick at the venom directed at us Brexiters! Both here and abroad. The incidence of ignorant UK citizens making racist comments and threats to immigrants also appals me. I know we are in for a tough time. The idea of another hate-filled Independence referendum is another serious cause for concern.
Your MiL sounds like she was a real character.
From John Mauldins newsletter, a letter from George Friedman who has had a great insights in world issues:The Surprise at Brexit and the Social Crisis Behind It
By George Freidman
In looking at Friday’s market decline, it is clear that the investment community was surprised at the outcome of the referendum in the U.K. What is most surprising is that they were surprised. There were two competing views of the EU. One view regarded the European Union as essential to British economic well-being. The other saw the European Union as a failing institution, and saw Britain being pulled down if it remained.
The European Union has been caught in long-term stagnation. Eight years after the financial crisis it is still unable to break out of it. In addition, a large swath of Europe, especially in the south, is in depression with extremely high unemployment numbers. An argument could be made that these problems will be solved in the long run and that Britain should be part of the solution for its own sake. The counterargument is that if the problems had been soluble they would have been solved years ago.
For a financial community, there is a built-in desire for predictability. It can make money in good or bad markets and economies. It has trouble making money in uncertainty. Therefore, the financial community was inherently biased toward Britain remaining in the EU because it gave them predictability. There was a subconscious assumption that everyone had the same bias toward maintaining the status quo. This was not just the view of the global financial community. It was one shared with other elites – political, journalistic, academic and the rest.
Someone I know, who has many friends in Britain, told me that she didn’t know anyone who favored a British exit. That was true. As the graduate of an elite college she is in touch with similar people around the world. This enclosure has profound social indications to consider, but in this case it created a psychological barrier to anticipating what was coming. When everyone you know thinks an idea is rubbish, it is hard to imagine that there is a majority out there that you haven’t met that doesn’t share your views.
There was also a sense of contempt for the opponents. The leaders, like UKIP leader Nigel Farage, were odd from the elite point of view. Their rhetoric was unseemly. And their followers by and large did not come from the places in London where the elite did. Their views were not the liberal, transnational views of the supporters of the EU. They led much narrower, harder lives and did not know the world as the pro-EU people did. So they were discounted. There was an expectation that the elite, who had governed Britain for so long, were dealing with an annoyance, rather than a peaceful rising against them. Thus, in spite of the polls indicating the election would be extremely close, the “remain” supporters could not believe they would lose.
The reporters of leading British media were talking to their European and American counterparts. The politicians were doing the same. And the financial community is on the phone daily with colleagues around the world. The challenge that was posed in the U.K. referendum is present in many countries around the world, albeit in different forms. What has become universal is the dismissive attitudes of the elite to their challengers. It is difficult for the elite to take seriously that the less educated, the less sophisticated and the less successful would take control of the situation. The French Bourbons and the Russian Romanovs had similar contempt for the crowds in the streets. They dismissed their lack of understanding and inability to act – right to the moment they burst into the palaces.
The analogy should not be overdone but also should not be dismissed. The distance between what I will call the technocratic elite and the increasingly displaced lower-middle and even middle class is becoming one of the major characteristics of our time. This elite did not expect “leave” to win because it was clear to them that the EU would work itself out. They didn’t know anyone who disagreed with them – a measure of how far out of touch they had become with the real world. And above all, they were dismissive of the kind of people who led their opponents.
Not understanding their own isolation and insularity; not grasping the different world view of “leave” supporters or that they couldn’t care less if the financial institutions of the City moved to Frankfurt; not grasping the contempt in which they were held by so many, the elite believed that “leave” could not win. Hence, they were surprised in spite of the fact that others, including myself in my book “Flashpoints: The Coming Crisis in Europe,” had noted all of these trends.
In the end, the financial decline on Friday resulted from the lack of imagination of the elite. And it is that lack of imagination that led them to believe that the current situation could continue. That lack of imagination, the fact that the elite had no idea of what was happening beyond their circle of acquaintances, is a far greater crisis in the West than whether Britain is in the EU or even if the EU survives. We are living in a social divide so deep that serious people of good will and a certain class have never met anyone who wants to leave the EU or who supports blocking Muslim immigration or perhaps even who will vote for Donald Trump.
A democratic society cannot survive this divide. It occurred in the United States in the Great Depression, but was smashed by World War II when the young soldiers of all classes discovered that their lives depended on each other and social class meant nothing when the artillery opened up. The moderation of the post-war period had much to do with this experience.
Of course, World War II was unique and hardly the solution to a social problem. Nevertheless, something dramatic needs to happen. It will, as the situation becomes increasingly untenable. In the end, the palace doors may be kicked in. Hopefully, it will be done more politely and without the viciousness of the falls of the Bourbons and Romanovs.
No one had the right to believe that this couldn’t happen. No one should believe that it will be confined to Britain. No one should believe that it won’t happen again. The days when the elite could assert that the EU is going to be just fine in the face of evidence to the contrary are over.
Plus this comment from Brussels and the original EU members again from John Mauldin's letter. All this is reverberating around the world so it is not just Brexit but world inequality/imbalance that is being addressed. I found this very helpful to think about. What is your thinking on this?
The EU Capitulates
By George Friedman
Today, foreign ministers from the European Union’s six founding member states issued an extraordinary statement, declaring that they will “recognize different levels of ambition amongst Member States when it comes to the project of European integration.” This was a landmark capitulation by the major European powers, accepting the idea that uniformity across the bloc is impossible and nations can choose the terms of membership.
The ministers – representing Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – publicly recognized that there is discontent across the bloc. The statement said that they will “focus our common efforts on those challenges which can only be addressed by common European answers, while leaving other tasks to national or regional levels.”
This response to the decision of British voters to leave the bloc marks a profound change in the EU’s formal goals and could signal a transformation in the EU’s role. Until today, the EU — and many of its member states’ governments — were formally committed to boosting integration. From banking regulations to refugee policies to everyday matters like cellphone fees, Brussels was moving toward greater interconnectivity and uniformity across the Continent.
On paper, the EU has sought to limit states’ ability to bail out banks, cap fiscal deficits and set up a quota system for distributing newly arrived refugees, among other goals. And yet, the failure to respond effectively first to the financial crisis and then to the refugee crisis gave momentum to nationalist forces. The gap between the EU’s formal aims and the preferences of some national-level governments has been widening as a result.
But successive crises and the diverging interests of member states led to fatigue with Brussels and, in some cases, active opposition to the bloc’s policies. Some countries, like Hungary and Poland, began to ignore EU rules, with few consequences. The EU warned countries like Spain and Portugal time and again over their excessive budget deficits but failed to impose any meaningful repercussions. European officials, however, ignored growing signals that the bloc’s formal aims and the realities in member states were growing further apart.
The decision of a major European economy to leave the bloc has led European leaders to recognize that anti-establishment and anti-EU forces are gaining ground, and that as a result the bloc could be moving toward irrelevance.
The type of EU today’s statement describes would ultimately reduce the bloc to a free trade zone. Given Germany’s hyper-dependence on exports, this was an urgent and desperate retreat to the one thing the Germans had to have: access to the European market. Germany, more than any other European country, is dependent on the EU, and its signature on this statement is an attempt to safeguard the country’s economic interests in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave. With anti-establishment parties gaining ground in Germany, France, Italy and beyond, incumbent governments are also seeking to appease their voters, who are becoming more and more skeptical of Brussels.
Today’s statement is thus a capitulation and a recognition that much of the European public does not share Brussels’ enthusiasm for further integration. The EU has accepted that, if the bloc is to survive, each member will pursue its own policies and different levels of integration in the future.
******
You can receive George Friedman’s analysis by subscribing to his new service, Geopolitical Futures, by clicking here.
Truly, I am heartsick at the venom directed at us Brexiters! Both here and abroad. The incidence of ignorant UK citizens making racist comments and threats to immigrants also appals me. I know we are in for a tough time. The idea of another hate-filled Independence referendum is another serious cause for concern.
Your MiL sounds like she was a real character.
Apologies for the auto-correct on your name! That's the second time it turned Ishbel into Isabel!
And yes, my MIL was a character, but a great one.
iris lilies
6-29-16, 7:37am
Razz, those two articles were useful, thanks.
Truly, I am heartsick at the venom directed at us Brexiters! Both here and abroad. The incidence of ignorant UK citizens making racist comments and threats to immigrants also appals me. I know we are in for a tough time. The idea of another hate-filled Independence referendum is another serious cause for concern.
Whether you regard the EU as the last best hope for mankind or as a trading bloc with delusions of grandeur, the "brysterics" of the last week seem all out of proportion to me. Contempt isn't an argument.
IshbelRobertson
6-29-16, 9:25am
Statements reported by the meeja include things like 'All those who voted Leave were uneducated racists', 'The exiters will make the future of 18-24 year olds unbearable'.
As I keep saying... The youngest group of voters had the worst voting rate. If they knew it mattered so much, why did they not turn out to vote? I am desperately sick of entitled, younger people. Many in that younger group have barely contributed to the workforce yet!
The whole "You stole our future" whinge is thinking one should perhaps expect from immature minds. Those of us with a little less tread left on the tires might be more inclined to believe the future is something you build for yourself. That might include tasks like showing up for elections that affect "your" future.
I sometimes think a collateral benefit of reintroducing military conscription might be the acclimation of large numbers of young people to a universe of which they are not the center.
ToomuchStuff
6-29-16, 10:48am
Statements reported by the meeja
Are designed to bring people back to that media. They are not designed for critical thought, but are designed to be self fulfilling.
The whole "You stole our future" whinge is thinking one should perhaps expect from immature minds. Those of us with a little less tread left on the tires might be more inclined to believe the future is something you build for yourself. That might include tasks like showing up for elections that affect "your" future.
I sometimes think a collateral benefit of reintroducing military conscription might be the acclimation of large numbers of young people to a universe of which they are not the center.
Not entirely sure I'd be in favor of mandatory service, but +1 nonetheless.
Statements reported by the meeja include things like 'All those who voted Leave were uneducated racists', 'The exiters will make the future of 18-24 year olds unbearable'.
Foreign Policy has captured the current zeitgeist by declaring "It's time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses!"
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/28/its-time-for-the-elites-to-rise-up-against-ignorant-masses-trump-2016-brexit/
"One of the most brazen features of the Brexit vote was the utter repudiation of the bankers and economists and Western heads of state who warned voters against the dangers of a split with the European Union."
How dare they!
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2025 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.