View Full Version : Calexit, how realistic is this?
gimmethesimplelife
1-31-17, 6:29pm
I have been following the drive to have California secede from the United States. My personal take is that this is not going to happen, that such is highly unlikely, though I could also see Donald Trump saying something to the effect of fine, GO!!!! I don't believe California leaving the Union is something that Donald Trump could just sign away and make happen...but I have to say, I would move to Cal in a heartbeat to start over in a new country before the border is sealed off and US citizens can still enter. It's always been a wish of mine to have one of the states break off from the Union and to move there before the border is sealed to entry to all so that I could start over in a new country without a lot of hassle. And California is definitely liberal enough for me. I'd skip the big coastal cities that are super expensive and focus on something inland, say Redding in Shasta County.
I really wonder, if such were to happen (and I don't realistically see it happening in the real world, the US needs California too much to let it go) how many hundreds of thousands of US citizens would flee to California for a relatively easy process of starting over in a new country? I believe the answer, were it ever to take place, would permanently stun a lot of people. I hope I live to see such take place....but once again I doubt it's realistic as California brings in too much money to the federal coffers.
How realistic do you see California breaking away from the US to be? Rob
Teacher Terry
1-31-17, 7:30pm
I agree with Bae.
Another scenario I heard is if CA sanctuary cities get federal funding cut, CA might stop dollars flowing from the state to the federal government. Is this even a possibility?
Another scenario I heard is if CA sanctuary cities get federal funding cut, CA might stop dollars flowing from the state to the federal government. Is this even a possibility?
How does that happen? When I lived in California, my federal income tax check was made out to the IRS, not the FTB.
I agree with Bae.
Mind you, I'd be a big fan of some form of Cascadia, but I wouldn't want most of CA to be part of it :-)
How does that happen? When I lived in California, my federal income tax check was made out to the IRS, not the FTB.
That's what I was wondering as well - I don't know many mechanisms by which state monies move into federal hands.
Its interesting to think about. Sort of like the debate over Scottish independence. We often hear about all the money redistributed by the feds to the other states, but would California be better of having to see to it's own defense establishment, diplomacy, central banking system, etc? Would the need to import water and electricity be a major economic or national security problem? Much of California's wealth comes from intellectual property. Might that be problematic if their biggest market is a separate country? How would the national debt be allocated?
I don't see it. Sounds like a "Man in the High Castle" story line.
Frankly, I always thought Vermont would be the state most likely to secede. Then Bernie could be President and Prime Minister!
I suspect it's just a little sword rattling. I have heard talk that if some policy gets pushed back to the states that they may form multi-state alliances for things like health care, trade, and environmental protections. That's probably not much higher on the rumor scale, but it makes a little sense.
I suspect it's just a little sword rattling. I have heard talk that if some policy gets pushed back to the states that they may form multi-state alliances for things like health care, trade, and environmental protections. That's probably not much higher on the rumor scale, but it makes a little sense.
That makes a lot of sense.
I can't decide if it's realistic or not. I've always believed that states should have the right to secede from the union if they believed they were being under served. The California legislature has recently hired Eric Holder to represent the states interest against the Federal government in their quest to become a sanctuary state. That level of defiance tells me they're finally serious about states rights, which seems to be a complete departure from your garden variety blue state up to now. It will be interesting to watch this play out.
One of the good things we could see from them seceding is the loss of a reliably Democratic 55 votes in the Electoral College. That could tilt National elections for generations to come, and I'm good with that.
Would the USA accept refugees from California?
Would the USA accept refugees from California?
I understand Texas has been doing that for some time.
I understand Texas has been doing that for some time.
Arguably to its detriment.
gimmethesimplelife
2-1-17, 2:29pm
Would the USA accept refugees from California?More importantly, would California accept refugees from the US? For universal health care, I'm there, and I am of the opinion that conservatives in general might be stunned to see how many Americans would flee just for socialized medicine. They might say good riddance, but the truth is that young people with energy and brains - millenials who tend toward being liberal - people you want to keep if you are thinking in dollars and cents terms of potential contributions - will flee, too. I don't believe conservatives have the emotional strength to grasp this reality. Their loss I guess. Rob
California will have free cheese for all? Yay!
California will have free cheese for all? Yay!I don't know. I'm reminded of a news story I read several years ago having to do with Austin TX residents being stunned to find they actually had to pay all the taxes they'd voted for.
More importantly, would California accept refugees from the US? For universal health care, I'm there, and I am of the opinion that conservatives in general might be stunned to see how many Americans would flee just for socialized medicine. They might say good riddance, but the truth is that young people with energy and brains - millenials who tend toward being liberal - people you want to keep if you are thinking in dollars and cents terms of potential contributions - will flee, too. I don't believe conservatives have the emotional strength to grasp this reality. Their loss I guess. Rob
California leads the nation in many measures of inequality (http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/05/news/economy/california-unequal/). Why would that be attractive to young people? It's high housing costs are driving out much of its middle class (http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/04/pf/people-moving-out-california/). If sudsidized health care was so important to young people, why haven't they enrolled in Obamacare in greater numbers? Would an independent nation of California create a magnet welfare state by taxing it's billionaires even more, or would they run out of billionaires before they ran out of "basic human rights" that needed to be paid for?
I may be my emotional feebleness, but I do have a little trouble grasping "this reality".
Like bae, I like to think of the possibilities of Cascadia; more so lately. I think our Constitution makes it difficult to secede, but suddenly the Constitution seems frangible, so who knows.
Like bae, I like to think of the possibilities of Cascadia; more so lately. I think our Constitution makes it difficult to secede, but suddenly the Constitution seems frangible, so who knows.
I don't see any text in the Constitution concerning the matter of secession.
The UN Charter recognizes the right of political self-determination.
There's an older Supreme Court case from just after the Civil War (Texas v. White) that opined that states can't just pull a Ft. Sumter and leave on their own without consent.
I don't see any a priori reason why arbitrary lines on maps should be eternal.
paulcoholic
2-1-17, 4:41pm
One issue to consider (and this also concerns secessionist movements in OR and WA): what about the more rural counties in the eastern parts? They are hardly likely to join in the secession. From what I've seen in electoral maps that break down Blue/Red voter orientation, most of the eastern counties of CA, OR and WA are red, and thus might prefer to stick with the US rather than leave with the blue counties.
Would a seceding state respect the wishes of those that might not want to leave with them? If "yes," then fine! But if "no," then how could the secessionists demand something they would deny others?
It's more complicated than that perhaps even. Here in WA, there is a good chunk of rural counties, tired of being dominated by Seattle/Tacoma and subjected to their urban-oriented land-use regulations, that would be quite happy to slip over the border to be part of B.C.
My own county is right on the border, and I bet we could get 65%+ in a referendum to join BC. Our version of Cascadia might well draw the line a bit north of Seattle :-)
Eventually we'll just be a lot of Bosnias, and Disney will be the premier power of North America.
It will be a small world after all.
I've often thought the state border between Oregon and Washington should be drawn north to south, rather than east to west, in keeping with the sensibilities of the citizens there.
This essay, by Phillip Bump, suggests the only way we can secede is in the aftermath of a full-out collapse of the United States. So maybe sooner than later!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/27/so-you-want-to-secede-from-the-u-s-a-four-step-guide/?utm_term=.ea876669b38a
There's a fascinating book and TV series called "How the States got their Shapes" that covers how the boundaries were drawn, often for quite interesting reasons. Wisconsin lost the Upper Peninsula to Michigan as part of the settlement of the Toledo Strip War of 1835. Nevada got it's odd shape in 1864 by taking land with water access from Arizona, in part to punish that territory for being too Confederate-friendly.
I suppose there's an interesting story behind most political borders.
ToomuchStuff
2-2-17, 9:53am
How realistic do you see California breaking away from the US to be? Rob
As equal in realism as you divorcing your husband and marrying a woman.:laff:
gimmethesimplelife
2-2-17, 10:02am
As equal in realism as you divorcing your husband and marrying a woman.:laff:Good zinger! They say never say never, and as I've gotten older I've come to agree with this - but this one time I feel quite safe in saying NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN!!! LOL. Good point, though, ToomuchStuff. I'd love California to break away from the Union - mostly for my own selfish reasons of potentially being able to start over in a new country with values that a more similar to my own. I believe it's as likely as my divorcing my husband and marrying a woman, though. Rob
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2025 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.