View Full Version : White collar automation?
It seems that many well-paying jobs are lost due to automation and lots more to come. I wonder how those in their 40's and beyond will cope as they are just going into their saving years for retirement. There has been some discussion about this topic before but this link has a list of the jobs most at risk and requiring adaptation to remain employable.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/automation-jobs-canada-computers-white-collar-1.3982466
"Experts say the technological upheaval that's rocked industrial manufacturing for decades is set for rapid expansion into white-collar roles — in fact, it's already begun in some sectors. The concern is that if people aren't prepared to adapt — and quickly — they could be left without work.
Sunil Johal, policy director at the Mowat Centre think-tank at the University of Toronto, says millions more Canadians — between 1.5 million and 7.5 million, many of them highly skilled workers — could face such a fate over the next decade because of rapid technological advances, including in artificial intelligence and robotics, and the potential for automating increasingly sophisticated tasks...
A pizzeria owned by a Canadian ex-pat in Silicon Valley provides a glimpse at how far and fast automation might go. Zume is a "co-bot" environment where robots Pepe, Jojo and Bruno help prepare the pizzas. Within five years, owner Alex Garden says the entire operation could be automated.
"If you called to place your order with us you would probably be speaking to our artificial intelligence phone operator, and you may even have a drone or a self-driving car delivering your pizza," Garden said....
Consider what's already happened at Goldman Sachs. In 2000, the investment bank had 600 cash equities traders — highly-skilled, high-income workers — on its floor. Today, it has two — backed by 200 software engineers.
ToomuchStuff
3-1-17, 11:21am
There has been a t shirt, that I believe ThinkGeek was the first place I saw it (probably 15 years ago), that is apt.
Go away, or I will replace you with a very small, shell script.
This has way more potential, then off shoring, or illegal immigrants, etc. especially with the total population.
gimmethesimplelife
3-1-17, 11:27am
It seems that many well-paying jobs are lost due to automation and lots more to come. I wonder how those in their 40's and beyond will cope as they are just going into their saving years for retirement. There has been some discussion about this topic before but this link has a list of the jobs most at risk and requiring adaptation to remain employable.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/automation-jobs-canada-computers-white-collar-1.3982466
"Experts say the technological upheaval that's rocked industrial manufacturing for decades is set for rapid expansion into white-collar roles — in fact, it's already begun in some sectors. The concern is that if people aren't prepared to adapt — and quickly — they could be left without work.
Sunil Johal, policy director at the Mowat Centre think-tank at the University of Toronto, says millions more Canadians — between 1.5 million and 7.5 million, many of them highly skilled workers — could face such a fate over the next decade because of rapid technological advances, including in artificial intelligence and robotics, and the potential for automating increasingly sophisticated tasks...
A pizzeria owned by a Canadian ex-pat in Silicon Valley provides a glimpse at how far and fast automation might go. Zume is a "co-bot" environment where robots Pepe, Jojo and Bruno help prepare the pizzas. Within five years, owner Alex Garden says the entire operation could be automated.
"If you called to place your order with us you would probably be speaking to our artificial intelligence phone operator, and you may even have a drone or a self-driving car delivering your pizza," Garden said....
Consider what's already happened at Goldman Sachs. In 2000, the investment bank had 600 cash equities traders — highly-skilled, high-income workers — on its floor. Today, it has two — backed by 200 software engineers.I am personally of the opinion that more and more people are going to embrace early retirement and will leave for countries with a much lower cost of living on retirement permanent residency visas and just bail on the rat race as the deck is so stacked against average people now. Why continue on the hamster wheel when it's not that hard to get off the wheel and out of the workplace if you have been saving over the years? What's in it for you when you get right down to it? My take is that more and more people will reach the obvious conclusion and just give up the fight and flee to escape working and the deck that is stacked against them. Now for people that have not been saving and/or have been unable to save, I wish I had some answers.....maybe it would be cheaper for countries to subsidize such people in lower cost countries than to keep them on social welfare in the developed world? It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the future such "exile"schemes came to be. From a dollars and cents perspective this is not a radical idea but quite practical plus it would get those exiled out of the crushingly unrealistic expectations forced upon people in developed countries these days, perhaps even expanding life expectancies for those "exiled" due to having the basic human right to not deal with/flee such insane and unrealistic expectations.
Perhaps this is not all a bad thing when you get right down to it.....What working has become in the United States really is soul depleting and evil and vile for most people. I can't speak for other countries (other than Austria where it's not quite as soul depleting as in the US but things have slowly gotten worse for workers the past ten years) but in the US I believe the conservatives on this board would be stunned at how many would instantly jump at such a "buyout" aimed at reducing social welfare costs. And just think of the higher quality of life gained by those taking the "buyout" or "exile" or whatever you want to call it - just from not having to deal with the potential of economic terrorism entering your life at any time, completely unforeseen, via the American Health Care Industry. Such an idea truly would be win/win for so many people. Rob
I am personally of the opinion that more and more people are going to embrace early retirement and will leave for countries with a much lower cost of living on retirement permanent residency visas and just bail on the rat race as the deck is so stacked against average people now. Why continue on the hamster wheel when it's not that hard to get off the wheel and out of the workplace if you have been saving over the years? What's in it for you when you get right down to it? My take is that more and more people will reach the obvious conclusion and just give up the fight and flee to escape working and the deck that is stacked against them. Now for people that have not been saving and/or have been unable to save, I wish I had some answers.....maybe it would be cheaper for countries to subsidize such people in lower cost countries than to keep them on social welfare in the developed world? It wouldn't surprise me at all if in the future such "exile"schemes came to be. From a dollars and cents perspective this is not a radical idea but quite practical plus it would get those exiled out of the crushingly unrealistic expectations forced upon people in developed countries these days, perhaps even expanding life expectancies for those "exiled" due to having the basic human right to not deal with/flee such insane and unrealistic expectations.
Perhaps this is not all a bad thing when you get right down to it.....What working has become in the United States really is soul depleting and evil and vile for most people. I can't speak for other countries (other than Austria where it's not quite as soul depleting as in the US but things have slowly gotten worse for workers the past ten years) but in the US I believe the conservatives on this board would be stunned at how many would instantly jump at such a "buyout" aimed at reducing social welfare costs. And just think of the higher quality of life gained by those taking the "buyout" or "exile" or whatever you want to call it - just from not having to deal with the potential of economic terrorism entering your life at any time, completely unforeseen, via the American Health Care Industry. Such an idea truly would be win/win for so many people. Rob
They used to do that. It was called Colonialism. Let's say you got your wish, and the US taxpayers paid large numbers of our less competitive population to migrate to Third World countries. What would be in it for the recipient countries? They would be saddled with a new leisure class competing for housing and services, driving up prices and diluting the local culture with an entitlement mentality. I could easily see local populations resenting a program like this, perhaps violently.
ToomuchStuff
3-2-17, 1:39am
So Gimme is pushing for Civil War and Succession, or American Imperialism, all while complaining that he wants to move to another country and not doing it?
Am I the only one who hears this voice in my head?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjpGBEPYv80
gimmethesimplelife
3-2-17, 10:52am
So Gimme is pushing for Civil War and Succession, or American Imperialism, all while complaining that he wants to move to another country and not doing it?
Am I the only one who hears this voice in my head?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjpGBEPYv80I'm not about civil war and no snark going your way, either, ok? I honestly don't understand how you could come up with this conclusion based on my posts? I am however all for California seceding from the United States - I believe this could be a good thing for both Californians and for the United States, too - and for all those who might be able to switch sides before everything is formalized. If you were a liberal given the current political and economic climate - where would you rather be? In Trump's America or in a new country that is liberal friendly from it's very start? I don't believe given my political beliefs of which I have been very vocal that it's hard to understand why I'd flee to California at the drop of a hat if it were to split off. It's just common sense for me to do so in my book. How could I let such a once in a lifetime chance pass me by if it materializes?
As to imperialism - this is not what I am about, either. I'm all about people getting out of the rat race if they so wish and not being victims of economic terrorism via the insanely overpriced American Health Care Industry. Given that there is likely to be less work in the future to go around for all of us due to multiple factors, especially automation, I believe it's only smart to lower the bill for social welfare to prevent revolution and utter chaos by offering citizens buyouts - a life without work somewhere cheaper in exchange for a monthly check that would stretch much further elsewhere than it would here. I can tell you that the 85006 would be a ghost town were this ever to happen - most people would flee without a second thought. There's really no real reason to work hard for most people these days in the sense that there is no getting ahead for most people the way things are set up now.....better to exit the nightmare and such would be good for America too via keeping social welfare costs down. I don't see why this is a negative thing - but then again I've lived in fear of America and all it stands for and will never really trust it so naturally I'm going to have a very cold bloodedly practical approach towards dealing with this country with no loyalty possible whatsoever. For me loyalty was lost the Summer of 1981.....a long story I will spare you'all.
To recap, no I don't want a civil war - though I would not be surprised if one materializes though I hope it doesn't. I'm all for California seceding - it would be the sixth largest economy in the world standing on it's own and it really doesn't need the US - the US needs California. Lots of leverage there and I hope California uses it at some point - plus the wonderful chance for those in California for whom liberalism doesn't work to flee to the United States and those for whom America doesn't work to start over in a new country, with the potential of minimal hassle in order to do so. And no, I don't believe in imperialism - just economic survival with no loyalty to any one country whatsoever. All the above to me is nothing other than common sense. YMMV, I get that, and no one says you have to agree with me. I won't judge you for waving the US flag around - please don't judge me for bailing for the chance for something that works better for me. Rob
I won't judge you for waving the US flag around - please don't judge me for bailing for the chance for something that works better for me. RobI don't think anyone judges you for your desire to live elsewhere, it has more to do with your desire for the rest of us to pay for your life of leisure in another country. That's just goofy.
gimmethesimplelife
3-2-17, 11:10am
I don't think anyone judges you for your desire to live elsewhere, it has more to do with your desire for the rest of us to pay for your life of leisure in another country. That's just goofy.Perhaps I should have been more clear - I'm not talking a high end life of leisure. I'm talking of basic needs met via a monthly check without much luxury involved other than control of one's time, in exchange for a much lower social welfare bill and less chaos in America as work gets harder and harder to find and hunger starts becoming more and more obvious. I'm talking of a way to prevent societal collapse and perhaps an admission that America really doesn't work very well for many of it's citizens (which would be very apparent just from the number of people who would take such a buyout without thinking twice) - I truly believe conservatives in general would be stunned at how many people, even many conservatives, would pack up and run. I don't see how this idea is negative in any way - America would be able to prevent societal collapse orchestrated by those most vulnerable to inhumanely turbo charged capitalism and those taking the buyout would have more human rights in exchange for leaving. Win/win for all in my book, and very basic common sense to me. YMMV, I get that, but I'd hope you would wish to prevent societal collapse in a country you seem to believe in, Alan - do you have any better ideas to prevent collapse when there are fewer and fewer jobs to go around? I'm all ears.......and who knows, perhaps you can come up with something better? I don't know everything, I just have seen enough of the dark side of the US to be happy to bail in such a scenario. Rob
Perhaps I should have been more clear - I'm not talking a high end life of leisure. I'm talking of basic needs met via a monthly check without much luxury involved other than control of one's time, in exchange for a much lower social welfare bill and less chaos in America as work gets harder and harder to find and hunger starts becoming more and more obvious. I'm talking of a way to prevent societal collapse and perhaps an admission that America really doesn't work very well for many of it's citizens (which would be very apparent just from the number of people who would take such a buyout without thinking twice) - I truly believe conservatives in general would be stunned at how many people, even many conservatives, would pack up and run. I don't see how this idea is negative in any way - America would be able to prevent societal collapse orchestrated by those most vulnerable to inhumanely turbo charged capitalism and those taking the buyout would have more human rights in exchange for leaving. Win/win for all in my book, and very basic common sense to me. YMMV, I get that, but I'd hope you would wish to prevent societal collapse in a country you seem to believe in, Alan - do you have any better ideas to prevent collapse when there are fewer and fewer jobs to go around? I'm all ears.......and who knows, perhaps you can come up with something better? I don't know everything, I just have seen enough of the dark side of the US to be happy to bail in such a scenario. Rob
I might agree with this in part, having the American public pay for a bus ticket to the border might well be an excellent investment, although the ongoing support to expatriates just to be rid of them is just throwing good money after bad. I wouldn't support that.
gimmethesimplelife
3-2-17, 11:26am
I might agree with this in part, having the American public pay for a bus ticket to the border might well be an excellent investment, although the ongoing support to expatriates just to be rid of them is just throwing good money after bad. I wouldn't support that.It's throwing good money after bad to prevent societal collapse in a country with fewer and fewer jobs in the future and more crime, more violence, much more hunger, much more chaos? Is this the future you want for America, given that you believe in this country so much? I'd hope you'd want to prevent such given your obvious respect for and belief in the United States, Alan. I'll ask once again point blank - can you come up with anything better to prevent societal collapse down the road when something like 49% of all current jobs are automated? I'm all ears.....you don't have to agree with me but I will say that at this point I'm the only one of the two of us acknowledging the problem and I'm the only one of the two of us bringing a solution to the table. Please...enlighten me. As a conservative, what plans do you bring to the table to deal with intense automation and to prevent widespread chaos, and potential revolution/societal collapse in America's future? I'm all ears, the ball is in your court......Rob
Society won't collapse due to automated jobs in various categories any more than it collapsed due to mechanized agriculture. People and markets will (sometimes painfully) adapt. I don't doubt your sincerity, but I don't see how your vision of "a life without work" can be realized from a practical standpoint. I don't think your buyout and export idea would have the slightest chance of being approved either by US taxpayers or the countries we would be sending our surplus population to. Nor do I think an independent California would be the haven you might think it would. They would have water and power issues, the possible loss of readily accessible US markets and the need to pay for a defense establishment, central banking system, etc. There probably wouldn't be all that much left to finance a large influx of benefit seekers.
Personally, I think the most likely route to a life without work is to earn oneself financial independence through saving and investing coupled with living simply.
I think a far more likely scenario than the US govt subsidizing exiles with a monthly living stipend (and why should those of us who struggle to work pay for those who have moved away--not understanding that part of this equation) will be the US offering through "ACA" or something like it a euthanasia option for anyone over 65. I think this is where this is heading, unfortunately-- kind of like Soylant Green, and they will dress it up as "kind" option.
ToomuchStuff
3-2-17, 2:02pm
You don't remember your history classes very well. Succession leads to war. Division of the states by succession over values and belief's (which is exactly what your pushing), was the cause of the civil war. E Pluribus Unum (out of many, one); This is both states, as well as people. This is NOT Trumps America, anymore then it is Your America, this is simply America. (remember the whole melting pot thing?)
As a liberal Democrat, you seem to have forgotten and reversed one of your most famous values expunged by a leader of this country, who there was great fear about, due to his religious beliefs: (would he lead, or follow the Pope instead)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzRg--jhO8g
Where would I want to be, here. I think I have a much longer viewpoint then you. Healthcare and medicine as you think of it, is only a thing of the last hundred years. Before that, we could still be compared pretty well to Imhotep's prior to 1900. Medicine is both a practice as well as something in another famous document, the PURSUIT of happiness. (in this case, via money) Life, being the first part of that, is NOT the same as wellness. We even debate the life part, strongly, based on states/countries right(s) to kill, abortion, right to die/self terminate, etc. You exercise your liberty to complain. In other countries, you try to do that and the secret police may be coming for you. Instead of whining, I expect I would be closer to Bernie and trying to fix things from inside, being a leader instead of a complainer/moper/whiner. Personally, I think in the ways of medicine, we are still children.
As to the Imperialism part, you should look to the British Empire. It basically collapsed back to its own country. They don't run/control the other countries, that they once did, due to push backs from its citizens, who saw the "imperialists" trying to control everything to their standards, while those who the "country belonged to" suffered. In India's case, it was a lot less violent, due to Gandhi, but it could have been someone else who would have formed a military dictatorship.
You move our citizen's out into other countries and you get the type that loves that country as it is, as well as those that want to adapt things to how they think it should be (in this case, same as you here). Your saying you want your welfare, but just think it should be less expensive and by being in another country are asking for all over site removal of those who choose to work more/harder, to pay for it. There is and will be push back from both sides, where your going, and where you came from.
Back to the UK, as it used to be a major center of the industrial revolution. Several things happened, from the great war, where the US became a much larger industrial country, to the destroying of the country side (of many European countries). Then you had industries that changes, same as now. The UK survived and adapted and so will the USA. It won't be the same as it is, anymore then we are the same as we were in the 1700's.
You want to ex-patriot, look at others, such as Rich Hall. He ex-patrioted to the UK and supports himself over there. Others ex-patriot based on THEIR savings and retirements, their work, their sweat, etc. Not on the backs of others. You want socialized medicine, we have that in this country already. Join the military or become a member of congress.
Go back and watch that video and keep repeating it. You want changes, YOU make changes. Don't like something, YOU change it. Don't keep complaining, and saying OTHERS should change to suit you.
I have that song going through my head again:
Gimme free S(censored)
Gimme free (censored) mister
Gimme free (censored) some more
Gimme free (censored)
Gimme free (censored) mister
and hope I walk out that door!
Teacher Terry
3-2-17, 2:34pm
I have been to Mexico, Central American countries, the Caribbean islands, etc and there is no way I would want to live in any of those places. The poverty is horrible. I know a couple that had a B & B on a Caribbean island and lived there for 8 years. Whenever they left the house they carried a gun. They had a huge heavy safe for the guests to put their valuable in. They would get broke into when no one was there. After 8 years they got sick of it and also they had to be flown out for serious health issues as the island could not handle them. I don't see large #'s of people wanting to leave the US. Most would miss their family/friends, etc. Also people that have left with limited means find that if they want to come home they can't afford too. They based their lifestyle on too low of a COL and don't have the income to support anything else. I knew someone that had to do a Go Fund Me page to get a plane ticket back from Thailand and then had no where to go once she arrived. Not a smart plan. As far as the woman with 15 kids I guess her stupid reasoning is that because they arrested her boyfriend that the government should support her kids. As a former SW she is well on her way to losing custody which may be a good thing.
I think all these dystopian movies and books of late are getting to people:)
I think all these dystopian movies and books of late are getting to people:)
You may be right. We are among the most comfortable and secure people in history, but we see every stiff breeze as an existential threat.
I am however all for California seceding from the United States - I believe this could be a good thing for both Californians and for the United States, too - and for all those who might be able to switch sides before everything is formalized. Here's someone who agrees with you. http://thefederalist.com/2017/03/02/californians-vote-secede-union/
A brief excerpt:
"Think of all the new social welfare entitlements an independent California could mandate for its residents. There would be free health care, free education including college, free child care, free family leave, unlimited welfare payments, and state-funded retirement for all. "
ToomuchStuff
3-5-17, 12:21am
When you decide to come back to this instead of taking the ball and going home (since we sent it back to your court), some other things you might consider....
Worlds population, growth, verses food, water, power, and other resources. What happens to immigrants in times of war. Prejudices against immigrants in other countries (both illegal and legal, you know examples here, then UK has an example of Polish, etc). You seem to forget that tech crosses borders, so HUMAN's will adapt, as other countries will become automated as well or have lack of job and fighting for resources, while your trying to be leisure at others expenses.
gimmethesimplelife
3-5-17, 11:28am
When you decide to come back to this instead of taking the ball and going home (since we sent it back to your court), some other things you might consider....
Worlds population, growth, verses food, water, power, and other resources. What happens to immigrants in times of war. Prejudices against immigrants in other countries (both illegal and legal, you know examples here, then UK has an example of Polish, etc). You seem to forget that tech crosses borders, so HUMAN's will adapt, as other countries will become automated as well or have lack of job and fighting for resources, while your trying to be leisure at others expenses.What is amazing to me is that there are people here who don't seem to understand that I am not talking of a life of leisure per se - I'm talking about avoiding a collapse of this society in which in the future there will be many fewer jobs. To prevent revolution the government is going to have to do something and social welfare is already very expensive. Offshoring US citizens to lower cost locations - say a good place would be Columbia, which is overall much safer these days than in the 80's and wise first world folks these days are actually retiring in Medellin which was once a very Juarez-esque place of danger - would make whatever monies the US can pay out for social welfare go further. I am really only being cold bloodedly practical here - really, even more realistically conservative than a Republican in this stance. I just don't have the loyalty that seems to be expected from US passport holders but I'm incapable of such loyalty to any country.
Moving beyond this last statement, I really have to ask - if you don't like this idea, fine. Then what do you bring to the table to solve the upcoming problem of mass automation of jobs? I see disparagement of my idea but no solutions being brought to the table as to this problem. No one says you have to like my solution. But what do you bring to the table instead in regards to this problem? I wait patiently as I send the ball back to the court as it were.
This could actually be a very interesting discussion if focused upon solutions for the upcoming mass loss of jobs due to automation rather than dwelling on the politics involved with my solution (it is a solution, and to date I don't see anyone else offering a solution that has disparaged mine). Seriously....can anyone come up with a solution other than mine then? Here is a prime example of why I am a liberal - at least I bring a solution to the table. I don't see such very often coming from conservatives. You know that saying, "Man Up?" So often I want to scream at conservatives, "Solution Up!" I won't scream here though, lol, this is meant as civil discourse. So I'll just say, please, someone, offer an equally effective or even better solution than mine. Ball in other court. Rob
The masses will have to learn to get by with less if they can't contribute. They may have to start doing some of the jobs the illegals are now doing. They are also going to have to stop breeding if they can't afford kids. I think we are a long way off before everything is automated.
I thought we were all going to die soon from climate change regardless so what does it matter.
Perhaps people could create their own jobs, rather than assuming jobs will be provided to them.
Perhaps people could create their own jobs, rather than assuming jobs will be provided to them.
But that takes work.
Moving beyond this last statement, I really have to ask - if you don't like this idea, fine. Then what do you bring to the table to solve the upcoming problem of mass automation of jobs? I see disparagement of my idea but no solutions being brought to the table as to this problem. No one says you have to like my solution. But what do you bring to the table instead in regards to this problem? I wait patiently as I send the ball back to the court as it were.
The "solution" for technological and economic change, is the same as it ever was. Learn, prepare, plan, work, adapt. If we as individuals can't do that, how can we as a society hope to? It's hard, and there will be winners and losers, but I think that it is ultimately more practical than triaging our society by creating a dozen little Liberias in the Third World or a new Socialist Utopia on the west coast. It's certainly more practical than "making America great again" by shutting out the world economy.
Society won't collapse due to automated jobs in various categories any more than it collapsed due to mechanized agriculture. People and markets will (sometimes painfully) adapt. I don't doubt your sincerity, but I don't see how your vision of "a life without work" can be realized from a practical standpoint. I don't think your buyout and export idea would have the slightest chance of being approved either by US taxpayers or the countries we would be sending our surplus population to. Nor do I think an independent California would be the haven you might think it would. They would have water and power issues, the possible loss of readily accessible US markets and the need to pay for a defense establishment, central banking system, etc. There probably wouldn't be all that much left to finance a large influx of benefit seekers.
Personally, I think the most likely route to a life without work is to earn oneself financial independence through saving and investing coupled with living simply.
Your comparison to the agricultural revolution doesn't really fit, as far as I can tell. The agricultural revolution was a result of, and went hand in hand with, the industrial revolution, which created plenty of jobs to absorb the people who formerly worked on farms. I don't see anything happening now that will require droves of former white collar workers.
ToomuchStuff
3-6-17, 11:47am
What is amazing to me is that there are people here who don't seem to understand that I am not talking of a life of leisure per se EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT, FREE TIME from work at others expense- I'm talking about avoiding a collapse of this society in which in the future there will be many fewer jobsSo you won't be working at the woodwrights shop, next to the farrier, making wagon wheels, for the "plumbers" who go dig the outhouses? To prevent revolution the government is going to have to do something and social welfare is already very expensive. Offshoring US citizens to lower cost locations - say a good place would be Columbia, which is overall much safer these days than in the 80's Imperialist! and wise first world folks these days are actually retiring in Medellin On the sweat of their backs and savings which was once a very Juarez-esque place of danger - would make whatever monies the US can pay out for social welfare go further. I am really only being cold bloodedly practical here No, that would be moving in with your mom and letting her support you. Same thing, welfare.
Moving beyond this last statement, I really have to ask - if you don't like this idea, fine. Then what do you bring to the table to solve the upcoming problem of mass automation of Current jobs?
Rob
You really think there won't be new things that people never even thought of? Mechanics, didn't exist before the car, and the closest to them, would have been a blacksmith. Been to one of them lately?
The masses will have to learn to get by with less if they can't contribute. They may have to start doing some of the jobs the illegals are now doing. They are also going to have to stop breeding if they can't afford kids. I think we are a long way off before everything is automated.
Smart people will always adapt. They do things like don't make themselves indentured servants by building up debt. People do complain about illegals and comedians make jokes (best humor is always truth based), about who is going to do your landscape/roof, etc. These are jobs people don't want to work and illegals do, and work hard they do, to support themselves and their families. They are not after welfare, but opportunity, Gimme wants welfare.
Your comparison to the agricultural revolution doesn't really fit, as far as I can tell. The agricultural revolution was a result of, and went hand in hand with, the industrial revolution, which created plenty of jobs to absorb the people who formerly worked on farms. I don't see anything happening now that will require droves of former white collar workers.
How many people are out of work, today, due to combines and tractors? How many horses/mules, etc.?
How many people are out of work, today, due to combines and tractors? How many horses/mules, etc.?
Most of the people who got replaced by combines and tractors went to work in factories. Are all the people who are going to get laid off due to automation going to get jobs making automation?
I suspect the horse and mule population today is much lower than it was 100 years ago. As they got replaced there wasn't any work available that they were capable of. Perhaps that's what's coming with automation of more and more human tasks?
Perhaps people could create their own jobs
If so, then parents and schools should be teaching our kids how to be either entrepreneurs or homesteaders. As it is, most of us are are shaped into being wage slaves before we even realize there are other choices. I see a lot of aimless youth here where we moved to (way more than back in Texas) who seem content to smoke pot and just get by which makes me sad.
Most of the people who got replaced by combines and tractors went to work in factories. ?
I think it was a lot more complicated and interesting than that. They went into transportation, mining, energy, education, insurance and financial services, retail and any number of other industries. I don't think it is it so hard to imagine people and industries reinventing themselves now the way they did then. But then I'm an optimist.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-06/how-to-survive-the-robocalypse
While it's entirely possible that some new industry(ies) will come along that create boatloads of new jobs it doesn't seem likely that they will come from the automation revolution. When cars were invented they created the need for gas stations, repair shops, motels for travelers, etc, all of which required employees, thus growing the overall economy. Or the lightbulb. Once homes started having electricity all kinds of new gadgets were invented to utilize the electricity now flowing to people's homes, again requiring lots of new workers to make them. Automation is fundamentally different. It is more about wringing increased efficiency out of existing industries. Driverless vehicles won't need lots of people doing different things than they currently do. They will just eliminate a lot of existing jobs driving vehicles. Basic infrastructure needed to support those vehicles already exists. The same for paperwork automation in most industries. That will just improve the efficiency of paper pushing within organizations. In my company we have spent the past several years figuring out every little step that happens in the property/casualty insurance lifecycle. With that knowledge we have moved the paper pushing tasks to places with cheaper employees. People like me, in high priced labor markets can now sell more product per person because we spend less time on paper pushing tasks. The next logical step will be to automate those rote tasks and eliminate those employees all together. Sure that will lower the price of insurance, which is a good thing. But I'm doubtful that it will result in my employer transitioning those employees to other tasks. They will just not be needed anymore.
I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that IT and other emerging technologies could spawn any number of new industries. The commercial exploitation of space. Gene therapies. Smart power grids. The "internet of things". Whole new arenas for us to sue one another. Deadly new weapons and their countermeasures. Climate engineering. Weird, wonderful, marketable stuff we can't even think of. Why assume we will be less imaginative and greedy than our ancestors?
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/ww2010/lempopl.gif
iris lilies
3-6-17, 8:03pm
But that takes work.
Someone over on the Mr. Money Mustache website said, on a thread about demanding additional time off from one's employer, that he worked best in a situation where the work and environment was already set up for him. He couldnt make his own job, he isnt optimized for that and so no, he cant go off to make his own job. But he wants his employer to torque his worksite to please him.
ah,.most people would ragher work for someone else, and not themselves.
Some time ago, i attended a special series of sessions for training leaders in our community. It was interesting to me that one session was for five so-called successful entrepreneurs to tell others how to set up their own enterprises. In almost every case, it was the father of the speaker who had set up the enterprise and the son had simply stepped into a job. One of the speakers actually confessed this openly and said he had experienced the good fortune of succeeding a successful father and felt unqualified to speak on the how-to aspect.
One speaker was very derogatory about those who couldn't get a job or start their own businesses.
Afterwards, i investigated this further with the overall Coordinator of whole leadership program. Interestingly, the derogatory speaker had worked for no one other than his father who had started the business after losing his own job - the father did have a kindly mentor who showed him the path in providing and marketing millwright services.
After my questions, the Coordinator investigated the program and its speakers a great deal further and it was shortly thereafter discontinued.
Whenever, i read about people discussing the transition from employment to self-employment, i remember those five speakers and wonder how many kindly mentors are in the crowd. i was self-employed for 6 years and it is tough to develop the skills and do all the jobs required to succeed. One does need a new idea, opportunity and strong desire and a kindly mentor can really help.
As a reminder, California is not a liberal haven. After all, they passed Prop 8.
I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that IT and other emerging technologies could spawn any number of new industries. The commercial exploitation of space. Gene therapies. Smart power grids. The "internet of things". Whole new arenas for us to sue one another. Deadly new weapons and their countermeasures. Climate engineering. Weird, wonderful, marketable stuff we can't even think of. Why assume we will be less imaginative and greedy than our ancestors?
You're undoubtedly correct that new ideas and industries will emerge over time. My question is whether they will need anywhere near the number of workers who are going to be displaced. It seems more likely to me that we'll see a repeat of what happened when we offshored significant portions of our manufacturing base. Lots of people will find themselves unemployable at anything close to their former wages regardless of how much time and money is put into "retraining" efforts. And with that the divide between the "winners" who are able to adapt and move up from their previous middle class standing vs. the "losers" who fall down the socioeconomic ladder will become larger than it already is and the truly middle class will continue to dwindle.
Why do I keep thinking "Let them eat cake..."
How arrogant we are to think only those who are unusually well-positioned to take advantage of new technologies--well-educated, well-connected UMC types and "better"--deserve a decent life.
Oh well, I guess the rest can just join the military to take advantage of the many attractive perks. How does that go? "Travel to exotic locations, meet exotic people, and kill them." I imagine the present administration will maximize the potential for many such adventures.
Why do I keep thinking "Let them eat cake..."
How arrogant we are to think only those who are unusually well-positioned to take advantage of new technologies--well-educated, well-connected UMC types and "better"--deserve a decent life.
Oh well, I guess the rest can just join the military to take advantage of the many attractive perks. How does that go? "Travel to exotic locations, meet exotic people, and kill them." I imagine the present administration will maximize the potential for many such adventures.
I think it's a pretty far cry from saying the evolving economy will favor particular skills to "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche".
But I do see how it's easier to ascribe ugly motivations than to attack ideas.
iris lilies
3-7-17, 10:38am
Some time ago, i attended a special series of sessions for training leaders in our community. It was interesting to me that one session was for five so-called successful entrepreneurs to tell others how to set up their own enterprises. In almost every case, it was the father of the speaker who had set up the enterprise and the son had simply stepped into a job. One of the speakers actually confessed this openly and said he had experienced the good fortune of succeeding a successful father and felt unqualified to speak on the how-to aspect.
One speaker was very derogatory about those who couldn't get a job or start their own businesses.
Afterwards, i investigated this further with the overall Coordinator of whole leadership program. Interestingly, the derogatory speaker had worked for no one other than his father who had started the business after losing his own job - the father did have a kindly mentor who showed him the path in providing and marketing millwright services.
After my questions, the Coordinator investigated the program and its speakers a great deal further and it was shortly thereafter discontinued.
Whenever, i read about people discussing the transition from employment to self-employment, i remember those five speakers and wonder how many kindly mentors are in the crowd. i was self-employed for 6 years and it is tough to develop the skills and do all the jobs required to succeed. One does need a new idea, opportunity and strong desire and a kindly mentor can really help.
That is very interesting! Self employment is a tough road. And then, moving beyond being a single entrepreneur to employing people is a huge deal. Creating those jobs for others--invaluable!
I am proud of DH for quitting a job on a Friday, and starting out in his own business the collowng Mnday, and making a go of tat for years until he retired. He never made a lot of money, but he worked ten hour days and enjoyed most of it, and he survived through the housing crash when many who were doing similar work did not make it. But he never had employees and that was intentional.
I think it's a pretty far cry from saying the evolving economy will favor particular skills to "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche".
But I do see how it's easier to ascribe ugly motivations than to attack ideas.
And here I thought I was attacking ideas...I didn't ascribe any motivations--I left that up to the reader. Is hubris a motivation?
Being a small business owner definitely doesn't appeal to everyone. My eye doctor in NJ is an example of someone who hates it. I remember having a conversation with her about it where she admitted to hating being a small business owner. She had started her career as a staff doctor working in her dad's practice. For almost 30 years she was content with just being responsible for her patients' eye health. Several years prior to my conversation with her her dad had died suddenly and the succession plan that had put in place (he was in his late 50's when he passed away) was acted on. All of the details she'd never wanted to be involved in (dealing with their landlord, staffing, insurance companies, etc) were now her responsibility. The practice has survived just fine but she admitted their were a lot of days where she wished she could just close the doors and go be on staff in someone else's practice again.
ToomuchStuff
3-8-17, 2:46am
Something else NOT mentioned, and I think this is an important point, is the definition of middle class. My neighbor that lived to three centuries and her daughter used the definition that I grew up around. Having discretionary income, a refrigerator, tv, and a/c. This was what I was taught was the general middle class, in the 50's along with one vehicle if you lived in the suburbs.
Then you have someplace like Wikipedia, which has differing definitions. So your worrying about a sliding mark, which is going to be a problem, as you can never reach a goal that is imagined only.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_class
Middle class has always been a moving goalpost. Trying to peg it as anyone who has (insert random items/amount of money here) seems completely arbitrary. My dad grew up without indoor plumbing. Today anyone in the US who didn't have plumbing would be assumed to be indescribably poor. Yet my dad didn't consider himself poor because his family wasn't especially different from all the other people he knew. It was the depression and life was tough across the board.
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