Unemployment: Just sayin'

[catherine]

Before laurels start getting thrown at Trump's feet following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' news that unemployment dipped to the lowest rate since 2000, I would like to point out this chart: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

I believe the downward trend was actually started with Obama's presidency in 2008.

And BTW, if you look at the trend line since 1992, there was also a steep downward trend during Clinton's administration, until, of course, George Bush 43 took over.

Just sayin'

[Chicken lady]

Also, “it’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job. It’s a depression when you lose yours.”
here’s what my “recovery” looks like:
rising housing costs.
dd2 (bachelors in graphic design, concentration in marketing) is underemployed and having difficulty getting interviews
heart daughter (bachelors in polisci, masters in sociology with a concentration in youth issues and development, 16 years teaching) is severely underemployed and having trouble getting interviews (this woman looks amazing on paper and is even better in person)
dd1 is facing possible layoff due to her company (construction!) losing business
dd2’s best friend (associates business) just chose to quit her job as her employer asked her to engage in illegal accounting practices and she has no prospects.
local restaurant closed after 4 months.
local ice cream parlor closed after 30 years, for sale over a year, no nibbles.
feed store has cut full time staff to one minimum wage high school kid.
local bar is expanding seating area.
fewer people coming to the food bank, but more of them coming in groups in shared cars. Donations are also down, so in spite of lower demand, we run out of things more often.

[iris lilies]

Also, “it’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job. It’s a depression when you lose yours.”
here’s what my “recovery” looks like:
rising housing costs.
dd2 (bachelors in graphic design, concentration in marketing) is underemployed and having difficulty getting interviews
heart daughter (bachelors in polisci, masters in sociology with a concentration in youth issues and development, 16 years teaching) is severely underemployed and having trouble getting interviews (this woman looks amazing on paper and is even better in person)
dd1 is facing possible layoff due to her company (construction!) losing business
dd2’s best friend (associates business) just chose to quit her job as her employer asked her to engage in illegal accounting practices and she has no prospects.
local restaurant closed after 4 months.
local ice cream parlor closed after 30 years, for sale over a year, no nibbles.
feed store has cut full time staff to one minimum wage high school kid.
local bar is expanding seating area.
fewer people coming to the food bank, but more of them coming in groups in shared cars. Donations are also down, so in spite of lower demand, we run out of things more often.

so, not one, even ONE positive economic thing is happening in your sphere? I find that hard to believe.

And to cherry pick your examples, I would never use the closing of a new restaurant as an economic indicator. Even President Trump cannot reverse the fail rate of new restaurants. It is healthy that no one is taking on the ice cream parlour, smart people.

I could detail the empty shops and restaurant in our tiny business district but since I was skeptical anyway about them when they first opened, I was less than surprised when they closed. Why every woman here she can open a little shoppe with little fussy pieces of crap and others will flock in to buy the crap is beyond me. And the restaurants there, several in the same spot, were poorly conceptualized and capitalized.

[LDAHL]

I think it's usually ridiculous to give much credit or blame to presidents for the favor of the economic gods, especially during their administration. I think it may be our way of simplifying complex systems and allowing us to scapegoat or lionize a single figure. The more conspiracy-inclined might also offer up the Fed, "banksters" or their billionaire of choice as the hero/culprit.

In my State of Wisconsin the May unemployment rate of 2.8% is about 1% below the national average. Anecdotally, I am being told that it could go even lower if people with the needed skills and sobriety were available.

[Chicken lady]

The bar and the housing prices? Maybe the food bank use, but signs are that’s at least partly an access issue.

the restaurant was actually a successful food truck for over a year before they decided they could become a restaurant. I know that is always a gamble, it’s Just a data point.

dh’s company is increasing the number of interns it takes - but not hiring new employees - and he is currently in a multi-year wage freeze.

i bought a “new” used car - because the old one was dead, and I now have a car payment, but it was economically good for someone?

the place I work was down 50% on contributions to our annual fundraiser this year. Enrollment is about the same, but more kids are requesting scholarships.

ds got promoted - but he lives in another state. Dd2 has recently expanded her job search to that state.

[Chicken lady]

LDAHL - cross post - that’s the state.

maybe we should be examining wisconsin’s Economic policies....

[LDAHL]

LDAHL - cross post - that’s the state.

maybe we should be examining wisconsin’s Economic policies....

I'm sure Scott Walker and our legislators would be pleased to take the credit, but I think it's more due to forces largely out of their control.

[Teacher Terry]

CL: rural areas always have a tougher time economically. We are booming here. Our downtown and midtown areas have been revitalized and full of shops, bars and stores because we have the population to support it. We have always had to move to where the jobs are despite being highly educated. Many are unwilling to do that. Economically the country always does better when the democrats are in control ��

[ApatheticNoMore]

Booming in jobs that pay minimum wage which does not pay rent. But yea the local minimum wage job is hiring! A homeless person is now living in a car right outside my apartment and I debate whether to disturb him or just let him be because uh bleeding heart battles with practicality (it's not really that practical to have a homeless person there uh ...!). He seems so far as I've seen to be very normalish (not mentally ill, an addict etc.), he could very well be among the 25% of homeless that have worked in the past few months, I could literally see that guy going to a job. While homeless are not right outside everyone's apartment, they are in the alley outside my boyfriends apartment, until they were moved by the city on the block of his mom's apartment etc.

Break up your relationships and move where the jobs are? Just because I could get a job elsewhere perhaps much more easily than here doesn't mean that my boyfriend will get a job there at all. Although at least it's clear that marriage and kids truly are for idiots - they don't work with the present economy, where it's every man for himself. Or should one only ever be married to those in the same field so one is sure the job market will be the same when one relocates? Whether a location is a good one for jobs or not seems to depend largely on one's field.


dd2’s best friend (associates business) just chose to quit her job as her employer asked her to engage in illegal accounting practices and she has no prospects

I was that moral when I was young, I still am as I haven't been asked to do anything like that, but whether I would be that moral these days, oh probably ha, however I'd give it a heck of a lot more thought than I did when young, because the world yea ... However there are legal consequences of that stuff too, and unemployment sucks so badly, but hey so does prison even if you are guaranteed 3 not even hot meals and a cot.

I think it's often hard for the young, of course at 50 you become nearly unable to get a job at all as well, there are few good years in between IF you are lucky.

----

I don't think the economy is as bad in the depths of the Great Recession, but that seems to have been a depression for anyone affected, I read their stories a lot now (well I would) and it was a depression. But things are good now? No, not even. Just relative to the depths of an economic depression they are, of course. With labor force participation they say that some retired, and no doubt that is a little of it, but not all of it at all. And I read idiocy online about it like: "let's confine it to people in prime working years age 25 to 54". Oh FU! Most people will NOT have the money to retire at 55, they may have once, but not now in an age without pensions or employers covering healthcare in retirement etc.. And at the other end of it, certainly some fresh college grads want to work, they aren't all aiming for the graduate degree until they enter the real world. But at least the young often but not always, have some family support if they become desperate enough to humbly accept it (and with some families at the cost of sanity). Those between 55 and 62 are just totally screwed, headed fast for homelessness.

[Teacher Terry]

We moved as a family so looked for places where we both could get jobs. This was before the internet so much harder to get information but it can be done. Did we want to move away from family when we had kids? No but we needed too. Here if you are not skilled cocktail waitresses, waiters etc are making 50k/ year working 4 days/week. This is the crummy day shift. Night workers make more. We have cocktail waitresses and bartenders in there 60’s that don’t want to retire because the money is so good. We also have manufacturing jobs paying good wages along with crappy jobs too.

[Teacher Terry]

2 of my sons liv in Wichita Kansas which is dirt cheap. Someone making 9/hour can rent a small house or nice apartment and not be strapped for money.

[dmc]

My son and daughter in law just moved down a few weeks ago. Both had jobs lined up before they arrived, no problem and good pay. They can’t afford to live in the same neighborhood as us, but can afford something very nice a few miles out.

Allegiant Air is building a new waterfront development across the harbor so that area will be booming soon. And they are buying my equity in the golf club I just joined for a big windfall for me. So the economy down here is booming. The only downside is housing cost are rising. But my 34 yr old kids family will still be able to afford a newer 2200 sq ft or so house with a pool.

[Yppej]

The impact on me is traffic is worse and it is hard to find contractors to do small residential jobs.

No inflationary pressures have pushed up my savings rates.

I do feel if my employer let me go I could find something else. I do not feel trapped as I have in years past.

[dmc]

The impact on me is traffic is worse and it is hard to find contractors to do small residential jobs.

No inflationary pressures have pushed up my savings rates.

I do feel if my employer let me go I could find something else. I do not feel trapped as I have in years past.

its definatly hard to find someone to do small jobs around here also. I have noticed my money market rates at Vanguard have risen. They are now 1.9%, while not high, better than the 0.5% they were not to long ago.

[frugal-one]

I think it's usually ridiculous to give much credit or blame to presidents for the favor of the economic gods, especially during their administration. I think it may be our way of simplifying complex systems and allowing us to scapegoat or lionize a single figure. The more conspiracy-inclined might also offer up the Fed, "banksters" or their billionaire of choice as the hero/culprit.

In my State of Wisconsin the May unemployment rate of 2.8% is about 1% below the national average. Anecdotally, I am being told that it could go even lower if people with the needed skills and sobriety were available.

Yeah, and Walker is bringing Foxconn at a cost of billions of dollars to supply jobs that WI can’t fill.... and negating EPA regulations (for a foreign company no less) and this company needs 7 million gallons of water PER DAY to operate. Just read they were supposed to build large LCD screens and are now reneging and building small screens. This is one example of a poor Republican! The WI roads are literally falling apart and he gives a $100 credit to each child in the state. I don’t get it! Trying to buy votes? That money does little for the parents but costs taxpayers how much? Trump wants to emulate some of Walker’s policies..... We are in a world of hurt!

[ApatheticNoMore]

the job market seems crazy, it feels like you have to be a genius to get a job and p.s. know everything, and well I'm not one and don't. I guess non-geniuses aren't meant to work anymore. okay.

[Chicken lady]

So, I went out with dh yesterday and looked hard for more economic indicators.

the local hardware store now closes at 6 on saturdays.

home depot had only self check lanes open with one employee watching them. No line. We did encounter several non-busy employees on the sales floor however.

we passed a billboard informing us that a company I have never heard of in a town 40 minutes away is hiring. Dh said he thinks they are manufacturing. McDonald’s is also hiring.

traffic on the “main drag” was light. A house mixed in to the commercial frontage was being torn down.

[Yppej]

Lots of retail establishments have help wanted signs. There seems to be an especially high demand for auto mechanics.

[Chicken lady]

Thinking about what would drive a high demand for auto mechanics:
auto mechanics in your area are not paid well enough? - bad economic indicator
people are keeping older cars longer and needing them fixed more - bad economic/quality of life indicator
Fewer people have skills to fix their own cars - not economics
more people are willing to pay to have their cars fixed instead of doing it themselves - good economic indicator

what do you think?

[Gardnr]

Thinking about what would drive a high demand for auto mechanics:
auto mechanics in your area are not paid well enough? - bad economic indicator
people are keeping older cars longer and needing them fixed more - bad economic/quality of life indicator
Fewer people have skills to fix their own cars - not economics
more people are willing to pay to have their cars fixed instead of doing it themselves - good economic indicator

what do you think?

I don't know how old your cars are CL, but we haven't been able to work on our own since 1991. computer driven everything and oil changes were/are a royal pain in the arse d/t difficult access. Now, when we had a 1969 Camero and a 1970 Chevelle? we did it all!

[LDAHL]

Yeah, and Walker is bringing Foxconn at a cost of billions of dollars to supply jobs that WI can’t fill.... and negating EPA regulations (for a foreign company no less) and this company needs 7 million gallons of water PER DAY to operate. Just read they were supposed to build large LCD screens and are now reneging and building small screens. This is one example of a poor Republican! The WI roads are literally falling apart and he gives a $100 credit to each child in the state. I don’t get it! Trying to buy votes? That money does little for the parents but costs taxpayers how much? Trump wants to emulate some of Walker’s policies..... We are in a world of hurt!

While I think Walker has on balance has been good for Wisconsin, I have mixed feelings on the Foxconn deal. Economic development efforts by governments is very complicated and is more often botched than effective. I do think Walker would have made a better president than the present incumbent. That may in part may be why so many people inside and outside Wisconsin are so eager to demonize the guy.

[Rogar]

I've seen a lot of help wanted signs that I've not noticed before, too. One industrial place had a sign out for assembly line workers starting at $25 and hour the fast food places signs seem to start at $15. plus benefits. I have wondered how limiting immigration might affect some sort of labor shortage for certain type jobs. The younger people in my small circle of acquaintances that are college aged or recent college graduates seem to find work, but much of it is in the service business and not career jobs. There's always work for electricians and plumbers.

My former employer is offering a fairly attractive wage for entry level professionals but they have cut way back on benefits from just a few years ago.

Around here housing has gotten fairly expensive, which also means high taxes and insurance. Any government calculations for inflation don't apply to the bare basics of food, shelter and transportation in my area where I'd bet it is significantly higher than the 2 or 3 percent official figure.

It's sure a lot better than a few years ago, but I would not call it a robust career type job market that affords a decent lifestyle.

[Chicken lady]

My “new” car is a 2008. The one before that was 2001. The truck is a ‘98. Dh does pretty much everything. Autozone will read your code for free.