View Full Version : The Cure Is Worse Than the Disease
I wondered if Covid is impacting life expectancy the way the opioid epidemic has, and ran across this article, whose author argues mitigation costs take away from health care spending and that leads to a greater loss of life than the herd immunity approach would, if I i interpret this correctly. He used different terminology. He works for trip.com so has a bias. What do you think?
http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/02/coronavirus-epidemic-implications-life-expectancy/
I don't know why there is a piece of paper icon to the left of my post title??
I wondered if Covid is impacting life expectancy the way the opioid epidemic has,
And what is that impact IYO?
Are you closely following COVID Data in New York City? How many people do you think would be dead without mitigation? With mitigation, the hospitals are all beyond fill with all of them adding 20% + capacity. So more sick people means NO CARE!
If you by chance, watch the daily briefings and specifically Dr Birx and Dr Fauci, you know that the death toll was estimated at 2.2 million without mitigation. So that's cool by you?
My guess is no. In my area half the deaths from covid are among nursing home residents who had a few years of life left, whereas most opioid deaths are among younger people who should have had decades more of life left.
My guess is no. In my area half the deaths from covid are among nursing home residents who had a few years of life left, whereas most opioid deaths are among younger people who should have had decades more of life left.
Careful with this approach. Some have stated over centuries that once women are past their child-bearing stage, they are disposable in a society that provides for criteria of valued vs valueless life. With men, it was if they could do hard work, they had value.
Opioid addicts are all ages. Each drug addict reportedly requires 2 years of intense therapy to manage the addiction with some degree of success. How is each addict's value to be decided using the years of life remaining model vs a healthy woman over 70 years of age caring for grandchildren or volunteering in the community?
Stephen Hawking was vulnerable health-wise, was he disposable vs a young addict?
I am amused that there appears to be the belief that a virus will simply fade away when anyone over the age of 60 is gone. Ample healthcare left for those remaining, 60 and under, with that viewpoint.
There are legitimate differences of opinion. NBC Nightly News had a piece today on Sweden, where everything is open.
It is too early to tell if life expectancy will be affected. That is usually reported on an annual basis. But in places without controls, including certain US states that refused to shut down, we are not seeing Black Death or Spanish flu mortality rates. I have even heard that if we tested everyone the mortality rate would be the same as with regular flu. It is only high now because so few are tested.
It's still serious because it is more contagious than regular flu, and leads to more hospitalizations, but I am not convinced it is more lethal, or lethal enough to affect life expectancy rates.
Careful with this approach. Some have stated over centuries that once women are past their child-bearing stage, they are disposable in a society that provides for criteria of valued vs valueless life. With men, it was if they could do hard work, they had value.
Opioid addicts are all ages. Each drug addict reportedly requires 2 years of intense therapy to manage the addiction with some degree of success. How is each addict's value to be decided using the years of life remaining model vs a healthy woman over 70 years of age caring for grandchildren or volunteering in the community?
Stephen Hawking was vulnerable health-wise, was he disposable vs a young addict?
I am amused that there appears to be the belief that a virus will simply fade away when anyone over the age of 60 is gone. Ample healthcare left for those remaining, 60 and under, with that viewpoint.
Covid-19 kills more men than women. It is not some societal plot to kill old women.
Healthy 70 year olds do not live in nursing homes. But yes, age is a factor. Why else are there more deaths in nursing homes than other crowded environments like prisons?
I am not saying anyone's life lacks value, but that as the article points out there is an economic calculus to health. Would we say because people die in vehicle accidents that we need to lock down motorized transport including ambulances? Yet we lock down our economy even if the benefits to health/life expectancy of an active economy exceed the costs to health/life expectancy of the virus.
Covid-19 kills more men than women. It is not some societal plot to kill old women.
Healthy 70 year olds do not live in nursing homes. But yes, age is a factor. Why else are there more deaths in nursing homes than other crowded environments like prisons?
I am not saying anyone's life lacks value, but that as the article points out there is an economic calculus to health. Would we say because people die in vehicle accidents that we need to lock down motorized transport including ambulances? Yet we lock down our economy even if the benefits to health/life expectancy of an active economy exceed the costs to health/life expectancy of the virus.
Your "logic" defies my ability to comprehend. And you didn't respond to my inquiries above, instead you keep on going.
No nursing home deaths in my state. Many under age 60 and quite a few are healthcare workers.
44% of COVID deaths in the USA are people under age 75.
Age won't be a factor at all if we just go on about life as usual and let this run rampant!
ToomuchStuff
4-18-20, 11:47pm
Sounds like your using statistics, before all the data is in.
dado potato
4-19-20, 12:09am
What do you think?
http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/02/coronavirus-epidemic-implications-life-expectancy/
I think there is a fallacy in the linked article. First, it asserts that the 100% increase in per capita income in China caused life expectancy in China to increase by 1-3 years. It may be the fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore, because of this).
Second, it asserts "by a conservative estimate" a 50% decrease in GDP would reduce life expectancy by 1.5 years. I think this assertion is specious, even if the assertion pertains only to China.
Linked article aside, I think it is early to draw conclusions about mortality. We could speculate that a novel virus for which there is still no vaccine and "no cure", may increase the overall mortality rate to some extent. To exactly what extent, would be a question for actuaries.
ApatheticNoMore
4-19-20, 12:31am
With no mitigation are more medical workers going to die than otherwise? What is the effect on health and the healthcare system of that? What about people with all types of jobs who have serious Covid and recover, how able are they to work again immediately or ever?
ApatheticNoMore
4-19-20, 12:37am
Sounds like your using statistics, before all the data is in.
this is almost certainly correct.
Good points dado. Thank you for reading the article and responding to it in detail.
ANM I guess I think of mitigation as things like social distancing not the use of PPE by medical staff. Yes, people disabled by the virus is a concern unrelated to life expectancy that the article failed to account for in the economic calculations.
And what is that impact IYO?
Are you closely following COVID Data in New York City? How many people do you think would be dead without mitigation? With mitigation, the hospitals are all beyond fill with all of them adding 20% + capacity. So more sick people means NO CARE!
If you by chance, watch the daily briefings and specifically Dr Birx and Dr Fauci, you know that the death toll was estimated at 2.2 million without mitigation. So that's cool by you?
First question answered originally but without including it as a quote in my response. IYO = in my opinion, I gave my opinion.
Regarding NYC the problem is not sufficiently large for people to put aside the culture wars:
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/opposition-samaritan-s-purse-central-park-field-hospital-grows-n1184216
The ship Comfort is largely unutilized. Now they are planning to send patients from Philadelphia there. The Javits Center was also underutilized according to recent reports.
No, I don't watch every day's briefing, but I am aware there have been various estimates of projected death tolls. It's also my understanding that flattening the curve just spreads those deaths out over a longer period of time.
Your "logic" defies my ability to comprehend. And you didn't respond to my inquiries above, instead you keep on going.
No nursing home deaths in my state. Many under age 60 and quite a few are healthcare workers.
44% of COVID deaths in the USA are people under age 75.
Age won't be a factor at all if we just go on about life as usual and let this run rampant!
In 2019 the life expectancy in the US was 78.87 years, less for men. The high risk group let into stores early etc starts at 60 not 75. So although over 75 is not that big a cohort it has over half the deaths according to your own statistics.
Age and obesity are the two largest factors today. You can say age is not a factor and wish it weren't but that doesn't make it so.
And how many obese people are there in the US? Are they, like grandma, expendable as well?
Where do you draw the line? Should our economy be shut down to save one life? 10,000 lives? 100,000? 1 million? 10 million?
At what point should we shut down our roads because of car accidents? If we don't are we saying commuters are expendable? Or Uber drivers? Or truckers? Every day we make risk/benefit analyses.
Where do you draw the line? Should our economy be shut down to save one life? 10,000 lives? 100,000? 1 million? 10 million?
At what point should we shut down our roads because of car accidents? If we don't are we saying commuters are expendable? Or Uber drivers? Or truckers? Every day we make risk/benefit analyses.
Thanks for linking the article and trying to have this discussion, Yppej. I think people are very polarized and upset in general right now, and I see a lot of attacking others who are trying to think freely about this complex situation.
ToomuchStuff
4-19-20, 9:27am
Where do you draw the line? Should our economy be shut down to save one life? 10,000 lives? 100,000? 1 million? 10 million?
At what point should we shut down our roads because of car accidents? If we don't are we saying commuters are expendable? Or Uber drivers? Or truckers? Every day we make risk/benefit analyses.
One life, based on the responses about gun's on this forum. Why should cars or anything be different?
iris lilies
4-19-20, 9:55am
Thanks for linking the article and trying to have this discussion, Yppej. I think people are very polarized and upset in general right now, and I see a lot of attacking others who are trying to think freely about this complex situation.
Yes, agreed.
Teacher Terry
4-19-20, 10:55am
There’s a happy medium to shutdown for awhile as not to overwhelm the medical system and open up slowly versus the extremes of never shutting down or staying closed for 3 months. People are getting plenty of money on employment and many will be better off. Of course businesses are being hurt.
First question answered originally but without including it as a quote in my response. IYO = in my opinion, I gave my opinion.
Regarding NYC the problem is not sufficiently large for people to put aside the culture wars:
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/opposition-samaritan-s-purse-central-park-field-hospital-grows-n1184216
The ship Comfort is largely unutilized. Now they are planning to send patients from Philadelphia there. The Javits Center was also underutilized according to recent reports.
No, I don't watch every day's briefing, but I am aware there have been various estimates of projected death tolls. It's also my understanding that flattening the curve just spreads those deaths out over a longer period of time.
You do understand, don't you, that because of mitigation requirements, those beds were not needed. Without mitigation, they would have. The hospitals all increased their capacity by 25% plus! Doubled rooms, patients in hallways, patients living in ERs....all happened before those "beds were built".
Yes, flattening the curve spreads it out. So as not to overwhelm the HC resources in this country. When 30% of the RNs, Drs and EMS staff are out sick, the system shuts down. This happened to a critical access hospital in my state. Closed! Roadside readerboard says: Be prepared to rescue yourself.
You will believe what works for you.
You do understand, don't you, that because of mitigation requirements, those beds were not needed. Without mitigation, they would have.
Don't use reason and logic!
FYI re Sweden's stats an update: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Coronavirus Cases:
14,385
Deaths:
1,540
Recovered:
550
Are my figures correct? = about 11% died
United States
Coronavirus Cases:740,928
Deaths:39,084
Recovered:68,599
Comparison - 5% have died Again check my figures please.
Canada
Coronavirus Cases: 33,951
Deaths: 1,509
Recovered: 11,207
Does that calculate to 4%?
Realistically, many people who have experienced the virus in some form but not required hospitalization have never been tested so the statistics don't tell the true facts.
Also, does Sweden which has a universal and comprehensive healthcare that the US does not, a lower population not spread over such a huge geographic area really present a comparable alternative for any statistical consideration?
Don't use reason and logic!
I know. WTF was I thinking? :~)
You do understand, don't you, that because of mitigation requirements, those beds were not needed.
I understand that's the prevailing theory. We don't have a double blind test here with two identical cities. We have a theory. Medical experts used to theorize that illness was caused by an imbalance of humors, or that putting leaches on George Washington would cure him.
There was a theory that Covid -19 started this past winter. I saw another expert from Cambridge University on the news yesterday stating it jumped to humans last September.
There are conflicting theories about whether it goes dormant in warm weather.
There are conflicting reports about how long the virus lives on surfaces, and ideas about how far it can travel through the air vary.
Faulty predictions did lead to a field hospital in Washington being shut down without ever being used. But that being ground zero mitigation did not precede the virus.
The first test was faulty. There is no guarantee a vaccine will be found or work properly. Suppose this is one of those diseases for which a cure is never found, one which scientists don't ever get all the answers on. Will we lock down our economy and borrow for endless mitigation efforts and stimulus packages for 18 months? Two years? Five years? Forever?
Animals learned to live with the virus. We may have to as well.
What if everything goes great, we find a cure to Covid-19, and this fall we get another similarly bad novel virus, and another the year after, and another the year after that. What if this is nature's way of telling us humans have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet and we need to reduce our population? After all Covid -19 hits hardest in densely populated areas.
ApatheticNoMore
4-20-20, 12:21am
What if everything goes great, we find a cure to Covid-19, and this fall we get another similarly bad novel virus, and another the year after, and another the year after that. What if this is nature's way of telling us humans have exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet and we need to reduce our population? After all Covid -19 hits hardest in densely populated areas.
well ironically that probably means that we should never open up the existing economy again, because obviously that's part of exceeding the capacity of the planet.
And then there is logic and thoughtfulness:
"South Korea has an enviable record of handling the coronavirus outbreak. It has recorded five deaths per million of population, compared to 42 in Canada, 122 in the United States and 437 in Spain. On Sunday, there were just eight new cases reported in South Korea. How did South Korea perform so well? It is a combination of intensive testing and elaborate contact-tracing, says Lee Hoon-sang, a professor of global health security at Yonsei University in Seoul."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/south-korea-covid-19-outbreak-record-1.5537631?cmp=newsletter_CBC%20News%20Morning%20Br ief_1020_20967
My question would be: will welfare of the common good and its needs overcome the individualism of the North American?
Don't fail to factor in the total incompetence of this administration, and its absolute refusal to take responsibility.
ApatheticNoMore
4-20-20, 11:33am
Don't fail to factor in the total incompetence of this administration, and its absolute refusal to take responsibility.
yea really, it's not so much individualism, it's corrupt leadership. But on the topic of individualism or not, the reasons the Swedish give for going along with their non-policy policy is NOT individualism. It seems to be because they "are scared not to social distance too, but they trust their government and that what it is telling them is right". Because it's not a heavily individualistic society. In the U.S people do want to social distance and prevent the spread for the most part, but we have bad leadership and incompetence and inability to get tests so that we could move forward and etc. etc.. Yes Asia has handled it well, and I wish we could do as well, they did have a few pandemics to prepare them though.
SteveinMN
4-20-20, 12:09pm
Asia has handled it well, and I wish we could do as well, they did have a few pandemics to prepare them though.
With some notable native exceptions, Japanese and (South) Korean societies are far more group-oriented than the U.S. Singapore as well, though they have a fairly heavy hand on the law to help. China, of course, can pretty much legislate group orientation. I'm sure there will be lessons to be learned in how each of these countries handles the coronavirus, both now and as/if it flares up again.
The number of new cases (despite expanded testing) and of deaths in Massachusetts peaked on April 17, but there has been no easing of restrictions as the numbers have gone down, unlike in neighboring Vermont. Instead some communities are putting curfews in place. Some rulers having seized increasing powers do not want to give them up.
ApatheticNoMore
4-20-20, 5:46pm
One of the rare parts of the country where testing has increased I guess, who knows who gets to be the lucky state that gets tests or ventilators or PPE.
In the country as a whole testing has been flat or fallen since the beginning of April.
I know a woman with no symptoms who got a test just because she felt like it.
I know a woman with no symptoms who got a test just because she felt like it.And all that told her was her condition at the time of the test. If it was negative on test day will it still be negative on test day +1, or will that require another test?
Exactly Alan. I am only interested in the antibody test myself.
ApatheticNoMore
4-20-20, 6:05pm
The testing is for tracking community spread, how widespread it really is. There aren't enough tests to track that at this point though. And with tests not widely available I don't need to run out and get one either as I have no symptoms, if I had any illness symptoms I might. But if they were doing widespread testing to track spread, I wouldn't mind doing it.
The thing with the antibodies is I suspect it would be negative as I haven't had so much as a minor cold even, in YEARS, but I could be symptomless though.
San Francisco is now reporting positive tests by zip code. 22 cases in my 40,000 person zip code. But without widespread testing that’s kind of meaningless.
It turns out even death rates are suspect. A coworker of mine lost his father last week. He was very ill and weak, declining for years, no respiratory symptoms. The medical examiner ruled it death by natural causes. Along comes the government and says there was corona in the nursing home and they make the medical examiner change the cause of death. Other nursing homes are recording any death from apparent respiratory issues as corona without any testing, but this case was really over the top. A possible motive to exaggerating the epidemic is our governor increased funding to nursing homes 10%, an additional % beyond that for those that maintain separate covid and noncovid wings, and is paying $1000 sign on bonuses for any new home health aides they hire.
Any statistics based on limited nonrandom testing are suspect. Here is an interesting article about preliminary findings in LA. I suspect our rates in all areas are higher than any testing would tell us. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-shows-la-county-outbreak-is-up-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html
Chicken lady
4-21-20, 9:51am
I admit to only skimming this thread.
I teach teenagers. They are caring, intelligent, and cynical. Some of them are medically fragile or clinically obese.
the general consensus across political affiliations is:
1) this is going to make a small but inadequate dent in both the social security problem and the obesity epidemic
2) the financial toll is going to dwarf the social security problem
3) I am staying home and avoiding people and encouraging all the people I care about to do the same
4) I support the rights of people who don’t because they either improve the species (Darwin) or mitigate the economic problems
5) oh yeah, healthcare workers, (subset: well, if you do this to yourself you shouldn’t get healthcare)
6) adults suck.
dado potato
4-21-20, 10:46am
My sense is that many people {those who would relax containment efforts, "open up"} are eager to test the hypothesis that they, their families, their friends, and the innocent people around them are somehow more immune to this virus than the people of New York have been.
Source: John Hussman, "Market Comment" 4/20/2020
The linked market comment includes Hussman's own independent analysis of what to expect from the novel coronavirus and COVID-19. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200420
Really, I just want everyone who appears to "not give a shit" to sign a contract stating they will not attempt to get healthcare but rather, go home and tough it out. Let's not infect RNs, Docs, RTs and all of the support staff that make healthcare happen. They don't deserve to be sickened by someone who didn't bother to care. I am tired of losing colleagues to this virus!
Yes, it is personal! Wouldn't it be for you if your Mom/Grandma/spouse/SO/child/best friend got it and died on a ventilator in an ICU all by themselves except for the RN who was trying to save their life?
Are you really making zero attempt to protect others?
early morning
4-21-20, 12:12pm
I interpreted the OP as questioning the need for isolation and social distancing in her post; I am making a guess that other readers have done the same. It seems a short stretch to the idea that the OP their self does not advocate the use of safe practices. I agree that those who are keen to open the economy with little regard for the health/safety of others should be willing to "tough it out" on their own should they contract the virus - Darwin should win that one - and I certainly don't want them around me or mine. The closing roads comparison is flawed, IMO, because we DO work to mitigate the hazards of driving. We have speed limits, require seat belts and child care seats, safety standards for cars, tests for driving ability, and require drivers to be sober. And then we police, as best we can, those roads and the people on them, to be sure the rules are adhered to, as much as we can. Yes, people will die on roads. Yes, people will die from flu - any flu. That is not an excuse to follow not safe procedures as much as we can. If there are more pandemics, we will (hopefully) be better equipped, now, to met their challenges. But humans don't seem to always learn from their experiences. . .
*** and now I'm confused... there was a post between Gardnr's and this one, and now there isn't!
Really, I just want everyone who appears to "not give a shit" to sign a contract stating they will not attempt to get healthcare but rather, go home and tough it out. Let's not infect RNs, Docs, RTs and all of the support staff that make healthcare happen. They don't deserve to be sickened by someone who didn't bother to care. I am tired of losing colleagues to this virus!
Yes, it is personal! Wouldn't it be for you if your Mom/Grandma/spouse/SO/child/best friend got it and died on a ventilator in an ICU all by themselves except for the RN who was trying to save their life?
Are you really making zero attempt to protect others?
I suppose you're talking about all those rednecks surrounding you, right? You know those people never give a shit about the right things, you should educate them.
I suppose you're talking about all those rednecks surrounding you, right? You know those people never give a shit about the right things, you should educate them.
That is not a comment I ever expected you to make when someone is grieving the deaths of colleagues due to their acts of service!
That is not a comment I ever expected you to make when someone is grieving the deaths of colleagues due to their acts of service!At least one of our long time members thought the screed was directed at her. I just suggested a more likely target.
I suppose you're talking about all those rednecks surrounding you, right? You know those people never give a shit about the right things, you should educate them.
No. I'm really talking about people all across this country that don't give a shit.
I interpreted the OP as questioning the need for isolation and social distancing in her post; I am making a guess that other readers have done the same. It seems a short stretch to the idea that the OP their self does not advocate the use of safe practices. I agree that those who are keen to open the economy with little regard for the health/safety of others should be willing to "tough it out" on their own should they contract the virus - Darwin should win that one - and I certainly don't want them around me or mine. The closing roads comparison is flawed, IMO, because we DO work to mitigate the hazards of driving. We have speed limits, require seat belts and child care seats, safety standards for cars, tests for driving ability, and require drivers to be sober. And then we police, as best we can, those roads and the people on them, to be sure the rules are adhered to, as much as we can. Yes, people will die on roads. Yes, people will die from flu - any flu. That is not an excuse to follow not safe procedures as much as we can. If there are more pandemics, we will (hopefully) be better equipped, now, to met their challenges. But humans don't seem to always learn from their experiences. . .
*** and now I'm confused... there was a post between Gardnr's and this one, and now there isn't!
I am using safe practices, wearing gloves at work, staying 6 feet away from others, and washing my hands and using hand sanitizer frequently. People can do things like this with an open economy. They are mitigation efforts comparable to seat belts, child car seats, etc.
I am following all my state's orders and only going to work, the gas station, grocery store, and bank drive-thru window. But I am much more worried about the economic fallout from coronavirus. My state recently released statistics. The average age of an infected person is 54. The average age of a hospitalized corona patient is 68. The average age of a person who died of covid-19 is 80. 97.50% of those who died had underlying conditions.
I would like to see financial support to those at serious risk of the virus not already retired so they can stay home and for everyone at low risk the ability to work with mitigation efforts such as I mentioned above in place.
Early Morning do you think if someone is injured in a car accident and they were speeding or otherwise breaking the law they should be refused treatment? Should smokers who develop lung cancer be denied chemo? Promiscuous patients with HIV be refused medication? Did they bring their conditions on themselves and do they need to tough it out?
I suppose now that Georgia and a few other states are rapidly moving towards opening back up we’ll find out if the extreme measure of shutting down the economy was necessary or excessive.
In my state the average age of death for covid patients is 80. The average life expectancy in the US is 78.87. So I now have the answer to the question I originally raised. No, this pandemic is not impacting life expectancy the way the opioid epidemic did.
Chicken lady
4-21-20, 7:39pm
Yppej,
none of the people in your example pose a risk of death to the person trying to save them from their recklessly self-inflicted harm.
Chicken lady
4-21-20, 7:41pm
Well, the HIV one might if we failed to provide the caregivers with adequate protection.
and did when we knew less.
and I feel the same way about the brave and selfless people who helped them and their own stupidity IF THEY HAD ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION TO KNOW BETTER.
That is not a comment I ever expected you to make when someone is grieving the deaths of colleagues due to their acts of service!
Thank you Razz.
early morning
4-22-20, 10:40am
Yppej, none of the people in your example pose a risk of death to the person trying to save them from their recklessly self-inflicted harm.
+1
dado potato
4-22-20, 10:41am
In my state the average age of death for covid patients is 80. The average life expectancy in the US is 78.87. So I now have the answer to the question I originally raised. No, this pandemic is not impacting life expectancy the way the opioid epidemic did.
I believe that for the entire US the median age of death due to COVID-19 is 80.
Italy 81,
China 75.
Old Age in America is often associated with comorbidities and congregate living.
Comorbidities which seem to increase the death rate due to COVID-19:
Cancer
Hypertension
Diabetes
COPD
Cardiovascular Disease
Congregate living situations increase the risk of the virus spreading from person to person:
Nursing Homes,
Assisted Living.
How has Sweden been doing? It will be interesting to see if their less draconian approach will result in accelerated herd immunity along with economic benefits. I suppose it’s too early to make that determination yet, but it may point to different strategies for future outbreaks.
ApatheticNoMore
4-22-20, 12:38pm
and that assumes people even develop immunity, anyway would need to infect at least 60% of the population or something first.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 12:38pm
Y, tell that to the parents of a 5 year old girl whose dad was a cop and mom in healthcare, the woman who lost her husband of 2 years at 37 or the parents of a 18 year old son in perfect health, etc, etc, etc.
Y, tell that to the parents of a 5 year old girl whose dad was a cop and mom in healthcare, the woman who lost her husband of 2 years at 37 or the parents of a 18 year old son in perfect health, etc, etc, etc.
Are you referring to the 5 year old in Detroit? Mom was a cop, dad a firefighter.
https://abcnews-go-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/year-daughter-detroit-responders-dies-coronavirus-complications/story?_gsa=1&id=70256558&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&_js_v=0.1#aoh=15875228733534&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fabcnews.go.com%2FUS%2Fyear-daughter-detroit-responders-dies-coronavirus-complications%2Fstory%3Fid%3D70256558
Y, tell that to the parents of a 5 year old girl whose dad was a cop and mom in healthcare, the woman who lost her husband of 2 years at 37 or the parents of a 18 year old son in perfect health, etc, etc, etc.
Y’s point was that this disease is not having the same impact on life expectancy that opioid addiction has had, based on available statistics. I don’t see how your anecdotes, however sad, contradict that.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 1:21pm
She was acting like only older people were dying which I guess are expendable. Unemployment is huge now so I would guess many people protesting to get back to work are making more money doing nothing. I really feel sorry for small business owners. Are people so addicted to work that they cannot just go with the flow for a short period of time?
How has Sweden been doing? It will be interesting to see if their less draconian approach will result in accelerated herd immunity along with economic benefits. I suppose it’s too early to make that determination yet, but it may point to different strategies for future outbreaks.
From what I am reading, the US and Canada vs Sweden cannot ever be compared- it is oranges and avocados, both fruit but little else is the same.
Sweden smaller and geographically condensed,
Swedes trust their government, their strong leaders' rationale and explanation and self-direct physical distancing, voluntarily complying,
Swedes have universal healthcare, prepared for demanding situations,
Swedes have high participation in technology for ease of communication
Swedes have a young population, many living on their own by choice,
There are many other considerations but those come quickly to mind.
While Canadiana are getting a little perturbed with the lockdown as are the US citizens, there appears to be a greater public trust in the Canadian leadership of both health and government at provincial and federal levels. In Ontario, an annoying, petty-acting premier is actually growing into the role and building confidence in his abilities . Kind of great to see, to be honest.
She was acting like only older people were dying which I guess are expendable. Unemployment is huge now so I would guess many people protesting to get back to work are making more money doing nothing. I really feel sorry for small business owners. Are people so addicted to work that they cannot just go with the flow for a short period of time?
Have you considered that people may not have any money coming in, which is why they might want to go back to work so badly? Many states unemployment systems are so overloaded that I'm constantly reading reports on FB and elsewhere that people applied more than 30 days ago and still have no response. In IL, they have to build a system from scratch to handle UI applications from the folks (self employed, contract employees, etc.) who normally aren't eligible for unemployment. I've heard that other states won't be able to take applications from those people until sometime in May. Many small business owners haven't gotten anything from the SBA loans.
Or are you going to blame people for living paycheck to paycheck and not having any savings?
dado potato
4-22-20, 3:38pm
From what I am reading, the US and Canada vs Sweden cannot ever be compared-.
I saw a recent item in The National Post...
Ann Linde, Sweden's Foreign Minister, was quoted, "It is not business as usual." School is closed for students over 16. The rationale for keeping school going for younger kids was to enable health care workers with young children to continue coming to work. "It is a marathon, not a sprint."
The political parties in Sweden agree that rather than putting legal restrictions on people to shelter in place, it is preferable to appeal to the "common responsibility" of Swedes.
Concern was expressed about the rate of infection of the elderly in care homes.
I gather that the Swedish policy is not about liberty or individualism. Rather, the aim is community survival. The state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, advises the government accordingly.
ApatheticNoMore
4-22-20, 4:04pm
It's still being played out as the death rate is currently high there, many there seem to be working from home (so it's advised not mandated, yea maybe you can do that in a social democracy, you can't do that where employers hold all the cards - you have to mandate). Old people in nursing homes there have fared badly, and those caring for them were advised by the government not to wear masks. So they are also anti-mask.
Never mind that many policies are based on what the hospitals can handle. Maybe the situation with shortages of adequate ventilators, hospitals beds, PPE for medical personnel, etc, is as bad there as here, maybe not. And maybe the population is younger, likely healthier too, the U.S. is the poster child for an unhealthy population right.
Y, tell that to the parents of a 5 year old girl whose dad was a cop and mom in healthcare, the woman who lost her husband of 2 years at 37 or the parents of a 18 year old son in perfect health, etc, etc, etc.
I read the other day that the media trying to drive ratings latch onto these stories of corona deaths among young people, but they are rare - less than a thousand in total, and in a typical flu season several thousand younger folks die. So though more people have contracted corona than the flu, the death rate is significantly lower for young folks than it is with the flu.
And we don't shut our whole economy down for the flu. Do you think we should?
Have you considered that people may not have any money coming in, which is why they might want to go back to work so badly? Many states unemployment systems are so overloaded that I'm constantly reading reports on FB and elsewhere that people applied more than 30 days ago and still have no response. In IL, they have to build a system from scratch to handle UI applications from the folks (self employed, contract employees, etc.) who normally aren't eligible for unemployment. I've heard that other states won't be able to take applications from those people until sometime in May. Many small business owners haven't gotten anything from the SBA loans.
Or are you going to blame people for living paycheck to paycheck and not having any savings?
As do so many. I've never made more than below a living wage. I've never really been able to build a significant amount of cushion and saving from the money I have earned. For many people, this is the difference between getting by and going flat under. Like great depression under.
iris lilies
4-22-20, 6:01pm
3174
I had to unfriend someone and block his cell number. Guy really got his nose out of joint when I mentioned I was going diving at a quarry in Ohio next weekend and up in WI mid-May. He told me to not come anywhere near him and to stay away. Guy lives 2 hours from me, and I only ever see him out at the quarry. Talk about people getting weird!
Personally I am fortunate that I have the luxury of continuing to socially distance myself regardless of what happens, and will continue to do so until I'm confident that testing and tracking are at a level that going out is a reasonably safe thing to do. I'd really rather not get infected because honestly, no one knows a lot about this virus because it's too new. It's not unreasonable to imagine that it may remain in one's body in the way that other viruses such as chickenpox or HIV do.
About the only thing I'm certain of at this point is that I'm glad I'm not invested in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. I had considered doing so a few years ago because it looked like a solid growth industry. Now, though, I fear that once this has run its course there will be a lot of half empty facilities struggling financially.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 8:28pm
Whenever someone posts pictures or a item like IL did it’s blurry and can’t be read. I am not blaming anyone for not being able to save because at 21 I was a divorced mom with a 2 year old, no child support, full time job with insurance that paid poorly. I qualified for free daycare and shared a small apartment. I know how it is to be poor. No state is prepared and some have to apply in the middle of the night to get through. In our state you can’t be thrown out of your apartment if you cannot pay the rent. People will get paid and get caught up. All the utilities and CC companies are willing to work with people. My son was out of work for 4 months in Vietnam and was running out of money which is why he is here.
Whenever someone posts pictures or a item like IL did it’s blurry and can’t be read. I am not blaming anyone for not being able to save because at 21 I was a divorced mom with a 2 year old, no child support, full time job with insurance that paid poorly. I qualified for free daycare and shared a small apartment. I know how it is to be poor. No state is prepared and some have to apply in the middle of the night to get through. In our state you can’t be thrown out of your apartment if you cannot pay the rent. People will get paid and get caught up. All the utilities and CC companies are willing to work with people. My son was out of work for 4 months in Vietnam and was running out of money which is why he is here.
If someone is out of work, lives paycheck to paycheck, and can’t get unemployment, do you really think they’re going to be able to catch up on 3-4 months of back rent? I’ve come across people online who think they can go without paying rent and won’t have to pay it back at all.
I have seen on the news that 1 in 8 Americans are unemployed. That means 7/8 are still working. A few are working from home but many are not. I can understand the frustration of the 1/8. If the disease is so serious why are people doing things in close proximity to each other like construction and road paving that are not emergency services? That's why some of the protesters have signs saying their jobs are essential too, because if it's your livelihood it's essential to you.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 8:35pm
They can catch up when they get their unemployment. Very few people won’t qualify.
iris lilies
4-22-20, 8:50pm
Whenever someone posts pictures or a item like IL did it’s blurry and can’t be read.....
can you go here and see https://imgur.com/gallery/jObF90P
ApatheticNoMore
4-22-20, 8:54pm
Because government policies aren't perfect, there will always be "but what about". That's no reason to get rid of whole policies. I don't want everything is this country to be this politicized (is climate change serious - oh all depends if you are red or blue etc. oh climate scientists believe ... well who cares, are you red or blue am I right?). But this country is a lunatic asylum, so what can one do. Makes me sad really. That it is that bad. That we can't even just LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS and try to manage this pandemic. Worry about politics after we have got the pandemic under control.
Of course it's just a bunch of astroturf protests anyway. Real discontent would also be as likely to demand a rent moratorium - not everyone thinks the answer to the economic problems caused by the virus is to let the virus rip (pretty much no experts on handling a pandemic do). Most countries did a lot more than that economically, even those that cautiously open up (many of which could because the epidemic was managed well from day 1, it wasn't here or Italy etc.)
And there is probably AT LEAST 1/8th of the population scared @#$#less of being ordered back to work, especially if they are high risk etc.. They don't go around protesting in coronavirus spreading protest parties but it takes a lot for powerless people to protest and half the time if we ask them to die on the job THEY WILL. However, not always, witness the strikes for PPE etc. by medical personnel, by Amazon workers etc... People are scared their jobs are going to kill them or at least make them spread diseases to their loved ones, and these are those deemed "necessary", many unnecessary are probably too, but may be at home or out of work now. Most don't protest, even if there job was putting them in danger, why would they, only when they have leverage like Amazon workers do know do they, but they may be scared and happy to not be in danger right now. Their voices aren't all over the t.v.. Many people don't actually want to die for their jobs.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 8:54pm
Yes I can. Thanks IL.
Whenever someone posts pictures or a item like IL did it’s blurry and can’t be read.
When I clicked on the picture it opened up to a bigger, clear version of it.
Because government policies aren't perfect, there will always be "but what about". That's no reason to get rid of whole policies. Of course it's just a bunch of astroturf protests anyway. There may be real discontent but it tends to be demanding things like rent moratoriums etc.. There is probably at least 1/8th of the population scared @#$#less of being ordered back to work, especially if they are high risk etc.. They don't go around protesting in coronavirus spreading protest parties but ... of course there are people terrified and working and they don't get adequate PPE etc. (not just medical personnel, janitors etc.)
A recent poll had 4 out of 5 americans saying that they are willing to wait to reopen the economy. If THAT many americans agree on anything, then it has rock solid support.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/04/15/trump-wants-to-reopen-the-country-in-may-but-81-of-americans-want-to-wait-until-its-safe-coronavirus-cuomo-newsom/#61ba2f64d070
I can understand people who live in super rural areas maybe getting impatient (like my mom's hometown in western kansas. Population of the whole county 2,000. Number of covid cases, zero.) But all it will take is one infected person coming through town or coming back to town after getting infected elsewhere and suddenly their 18 bed hospital will quickly be overwhelmed.
Teacher Terry
4-22-20, 9:47pm
APN, you are so right. All my kids are being hit hard by this but don’t want to die for work. When the casinos reopen business will be slow so tips bad. My oldest and his wife are preparing by packing and getting ready to move into a smaller cheaper apartment. They are downsizing from 1400 sq ft to 700. Will have to get rid of half their stuff. They are hoping to end their lease sooner than 7/1. I am not taking people not working lightly but this virus is serious. I am also concerned about what this is doing to our economy and country. The cities that did best during the 1918 Spanish flu were the ones that locked down.
I am not taking people not working lightly but this virus is serious. I am also concerned about what this is doing to our economy and country. The cities that did best during the 1918 Spanish flu were the ones that locked down.
And we have a ways to go yet.
3175
APN, you are so right. All my kids are being hit hard by this but don’t want to die for work. When the casinos reopen business will be slow so tips bad. My oldest and his wife are preparing by packing and getting ready to move into a smaller cheaper apartment. They are downsizing from 1400 sq ft to 700. Will have to get rid of half their stuff. They are hoping to end their lease sooner than 7/1. I am not taking people not working lightly but this virus is serious. I am also concerned about what this is doing to our economy and country. The cities that did best during the 1918 Spanish flu were the ones that locked down.
What I haven't seen is how long those lock downs were for...and also, while they prohibited public gatherings, they didn't ban work, did they?
Get to work you lazy effs. Fear of dying is not a satisfactory reason to collect unemployment in Georgia.
https://www.wabe.org/fear-of-corornavirus-not-a-reason-to-qualify-for-unemployement-in-georgia/?fbclid=IwAR0kBN-zwtdbySZY9emnE1QFl4-ZIsRzSZaYFFySGxfeltz6T9Ljs5ruz1w
Just came across a meme on Facebook that seemed right. I’ll know it’s safe to stop social distancing when the White House starts allowing tours again.
ToomuchStuff
4-23-20, 1:03am
Just came across a meme on Facebook that seemed right. I’ll know it’s safe to stop social distancing when the White House starts allowing tours again.
Sounds like the one about the Mickey Mouse operation that is all about getting our money out of our pockets, and how they will be testing everyone entering, to keep the park safe, if/when it is safe to reopen.
Our state is pretty much opening everything on a limited basis as of May 1. Social distancing is requested and people are still encouraged to work from home if possible. Exceptions are gyms, restaurants, and bars. I suspect sports events although I didn't catch that. And uncertain about religious gatherings. I think it's too soon and will continue to self-isolation for the near future, which is what they recommend for seniors and those at risk.
Get to work you lazy effs. Fear of dying is not a satisfactory reason to collect unemployment in Georgia.
https://www.wabe.org/fear-of-corornavirus-not-a-reason-to-qualify-for-unemployement-in-georgia/?fbclid=IwAR0kBN-zwtdbySZY9emnE1QFl4-ZIsRzSZaYFFySGxfeltz6T9Ljs5ruz1w
In IL, not going to work because you have a general fear of CV-19 doesn’t get you unemployment either.
https://www2.illinois.gov/ides/Pages/COVID-19-and-Unemployment-Benefits.aspx#h6
In IL, not going to work because you have a general fear of CV-19 doesn’t get you unemployment either.
https://www2.illinois.gov/ides/Pages/COVID-19-and-Unemployment-Benefits.aspx#h6
The difference though is that in Georgia the businesses will all be reopened so they will have to choose between going back to work and risk getting sick or quitting, unlike Illinois. Additionally the businesses in Georgia will no longer be eligible for any of the programs intended to help them get through this. So thousands of small businesses in Georgia will go bankrupt when they have a lack of employees and customers.
The difference though is that in Georgia the businesses will all be reopened so they will have to choose between going back to work and risk getting sick or quitting, unlike Illinois. Additionally the businesses in Georgia will no longer be eligible for any of the programs intended to help them get through this. So thousands of small businesses in Georgia will go bankrupt when they have a lack of employees and customers.
If you’re a grocery store worker here, same still applies. Or in healthcare. If you quit your job because you’re afraid of CV-19, you don’t get anything. So trying to pin this on a red state, when a blue state has the same policy doesn’t work.
If you’re a grocery store worker here, same still applies. Or in healthcare. If you quit your job because you’re afraid of CV-19, you don’t get anything. So trying to pin this on a red state, when a blue state has the same policy doesn’t work.
I suppose one can claim that grocery stores and massage parlors, gyms, and bowling alleys are all the same in terms of being critical businesses, but that doesn't mean it's true.
dado potato
4-24-20, 2:52pm
"Hurra" for Iceland!
On 4/24/20 there were zero new positives in the island nation. 12% of the population has been tested to date. The restriction preventing more than 20 persons gathering is scheduled to be LIFTED on 5/4/20.
"Hurra" for Iceland!
Sorta kicking myself now for not having moved there 3 years ago :-)
ApatheticNoMore
4-24-20, 5:18pm
Iceland on the U.S.:
https://twitter.com/CNBCClosingBell/status/1250507076977164291
Of course it's not just incompetence (and there may be that, but Americans are competent at some things for all that, so that isn't quite it). Incompetence is too kind an accusation actually. And it's not even just corruption although there is PLENTY of that, it's probably not even just defunding although that plays a huge role. But people keep voting for rotten people, personality disordered psychopaths, rotten people run most everything, and people seem to like it that way, cruelty reigns.
I don't have an account to read the tweet. How did Iceland do it? Did they inject Lysol into people's lungs and stick them under UV lamps?
ApatheticNoMore
4-24-20, 5:28pm
They screened early on in the epidemic before they even found people with covid, they screened those without symptoms as well as those with symptoms, they isolated the infected and put the contacts of the infected in quarantine.
They screened early on in the epidemic before they even found people with covid, they screened those without symptoms as well as those with symptoms, they isolated the infected and put the contacts of the infected in quarantine.
Public Health 101.
I just don't understand why it seems so hard for the US to get a handle on this disaster. It all seems piecemeal, confusing and willy-nilly. As I understand it, Colorado will slowly re-open but older and compromised people should continue to stay at home. But I don't really know...
Public Health 101.
Yes. And a Leader who listened to medical experts!
I just don't understand why it seems so hard for the US to get a handle on this disaster. It all seems piecemeal, confusing and willy-nilly.
Do you really not understand why? You must not have watched the daily Briefings from the beginning!
Do you really not understand why? You must not have watched the daily Briefings from the beginning!Well, there are 50 states and several territories doing their own thing, and that would be the same whoever is President.
Federalism, you can blame the current President or you can blame the founders, probably based upon who you dislike most, but you gotta admit it's the best form of government going if all the countries adopting it after our inception is any indication.
frugal-one
4-25-20, 3:12am
Well, there are 50 states and several territories doing their own thing, and that would be the same whoever is President.
Federalism, you can blame the current President or you can blame the founders, probably based upon who you dislike most, but you gotta admit it's the best form of government going if all the countries adopting it after our inception is any indication.
Read Yppej’s post above.
As I understand it, Colorado will slowly re-open but older and compromised people should continue to stay at home.
This makes a lot of sense to me.
Well, there are 50 states and several territories doing their own thing, and that would be the same whoever is President.
Federalism, you can blame the current President or you can blame the founders, probably based upon who you dislike most, but you gotta admit it's the best form of government going if all the countries adopting it after our inception is any indication.
However, it is possible to have federalism and a competent president. They don’t have to be mutually exclusive. Instead we have a guy that just gets up in front of the tv cameras everyday and spews whatever idiot bs pops into his head.
But sure, go ahead and convince yourself that our death toll is entirely because ‘federalism’.
But there is a method to his madness--funneling stolen PPE to supportive governors, pushing untried drugs he has financial interests in, using his "bully pulpit" (never has there been a more apt phrase) to harangue reporters, endlessly patting himself on the back...I think his toxic incompetence will lead to more coalitions between state leadership, as seen on the West Coast.
I thought this was a really interesting article:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/23/she-held-the-family-together-san-jose-woman-is-first-known-u-s-covid-19-death/
A husband thought his wife's death suspicious. It was classified as a death from a heart attack on Feb 6. So they do an autopsy and found she had Covid-19, and died way back in February, meaning it was in the community at that point.
However, it is possible to have federalism and a competent president.
I don't think the Russians could have picked a better candidate to cause the death of the Republic.
I don't think the Russians could have picked a better candidate to cause the death of the Republic.
Agreed.
I don't think the Russians could have picked a better candidate to cause the death of the Republic.
I believe I posited this months ago. Even before the Mueller report made it clear.
frugal-one
4-25-20, 2:43pm
I don't think the Russians could have picked a better candidate to cause the death of the Republic.
Sad, but true.
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