View Full Version : The coming Trump rally covid spike
So, I did a little back of the envelope math. Tulsa county Oklahoma has 500 current covid cases. And as of now that number is doubling weekly. With a population of 651,000 that means that roughly 1 in every 1300 people who live in the county has it, 1 in 650 will have it a week from now, etc. The place where the rally is going to occur holds 19,000 people with an overflow space of 40,000. Even if everyone with symptoms stays home the presymptomatic population at the time of the rally will likely be 1 in 1300 people since six days is the average time from infection to showing symptoms. Simple math indicates that 14 infectious people will be at the rally and 30 infectious people will likely be at the overflow site. (those numbers might be a bit high since covid affects minorities at a higher rate and obviously there won't be many minorities at the rally.) If cases spike like they did with 1 infectious person at a church service in South Korea recently there will be 2900 new cases per infectious person attending the rally. And that's probably a reasonable expectation because no one will be wearing masks or attempting to socially distance. And there will be lots of yelling and cheering spreading people's saliva droplets freely all over the place.
Looking at my crystal ball that calculates out to 127,600 new cases in the 2-4 weeks after the rally. I'm putting this here because it will be interesting to look back at the end of July to see how close or far off I was. Admittedly this won't be quite as clean of a prediction since undoubtedly not all the people attending the rally will be from Tulsa County, so the number of infectious people at the rally may be different, and the resulting infections will also be diffused beyond Tulsa to all the surrounding areas where rally attendees come from.
Yay freedom?
happystuff
6-17-20, 7:27am
Nice job. Definitely something to check back on.
Teacher Terry
6-17-20, 11:08am
We can only hope that the moron that’s holding this rally gets it.
I hope everyone stays healthy, everywhere. Not a good thing to gloat about disease and death.
frugal-one
6-17-20, 1:55pm
I hope everyone stays healthy, everywhere. Not a good thing to gloat about disease and death.
People are being stupid putting themselves at risk in that atmosphere. Wait, they say this is just like getting the flu! Did you ever hear of having to sign a waiver in case you get the flu? It will be hard to feel sorry for these people. I feel sorry for the medical people who will be required to look after their dumb -----!
That's your right, and I feel sorry for anyone who gets this disease. And I feel repulsed by the gloating that goes on when people talk about "stupid" people getting sick.
Pointing out that people are senselessly putting themselves and others at risk isn't gloating. It's just pointing out that people are senselessly putting themselves and others at risk. They're either stupid or selfish. The people I will feel sorry for are all the people they come into contact with afterwards, the hotel workers, restaurant workers, grocery store workers, etc in their hometowns, who will be at risk of covid because of these people and the president's stupidity and selfishness.
There seems to be an air of Schadenfreude at the prospect of a bunch of MAGA hat wearers falling sick.
frugal-one
6-17-20, 3:45pm
There seems to be an air of Schadenfreude at the prospect of a bunch of MAGA hat wearers falling sick.
If it were church goers, golfers, or any group of people.... I would feel the same. As jp1 stated so succinctly, they are senselessly putting themselves and others who they come into contact with at risk.
There seems to be an air of Schadenfreude at the prospect of a bunch of MAGA hat wearers falling sick.
I wouldn't wish this thing on anyone.
I wouldn't wish this thing on anyone.
No rational person does.
If it were church goers, golfers, or any group of people.... I would feel the same. As jp1 stated so succinctly, they are senselessly putting themselves and others who they come into contact with at risk.
What about all the folks who've been out protesting the last couple of weeks? Or do they get a pass?
What about all the folks who've been out protesting the last couple of weeks? Or do they get a pass?
We'll see if the virus gives them a pass.
frugal-one
6-17-20, 5:21pm
What about all the folks who've been out protesting the last couple of weeks? Or do they get a pass?
I cannot imagine they will be spared.
The protesting crowds may be at least partially protected by their mask wearing and operating out in the fresh air (except for tear gas and pepper balls, etc.) So far, testing seems to indicate a relatively low infection rate. It's not like they were all standing in a confined space, maskless.
We'll see if the virus gives them a pass.
I cannot imagine they will be spared.
But we probably will not see internet discussion threads focused on the likelihood of them getting sick and thread participants breathlessly, anxiously hoping so. They do get that pass.
But we probably will not see internet discussion threads focused on the likelihood of them getting sick and thread participants breathlessly, anxiously hoping so. They do get that pass.
That’s actually the pass I meant.
I guess if pointing out the level of failed leadership it takes for the president to host a stupidly dangerous (and pointless since OK is not a swing state) rally that is completely contrary to the recommendations by health experts for safe behavior in the middle of a pandemic is breathlessly anticipating the unfortunate deaths that will occur than sure, call me breathless. But no, the only people who will actually be breathless are the people who will die after attending this rally and probably more than a few people unfortunate enough to come into contact with them after it.
I guess if pointing out the level of failed leadership it takes for the president to host a stupidly dangerous (and pointless since OK is not a swing state) rally that is completely contrary to the recommendations by health experts for safe behavior in the middle of a pandemic is breathlessly anticipating the unfortunate deaths that will occur than sure, call me breathless. But no, the only people who will actually be breathless are the people who will die after attending this rally and probably more than a few people unfortunate enough to come into contact with them after it.
I'm fairly breathless gasping at the stupidity and supreme reckless arrogance of scheduling such a "rally." He's flouting every recommendation by not only communicable disease experts, but Tulsa's own leaders--just to feed his own insatiable ego.
frugal-one
6-17-20, 7:11pm
The protesting crowds may be at least partially protected by their mask wearing and operating out in the fresh air (except for tear gas and pepper balls, etc.) So far, testing seems to indicate a relatively low infection rate. It's not like they were all standing in a confined space, maskless.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/states-coronavirus-hospitalizations-rise-experts-point-lack-social/story?id=71181103
Trump and his toadies' refusal to model social distancing and mask wearing--basically just denying there's any need for caution--is influencing a gullible public. That may be why our incidence graphs have plateaued at such a high level. We're number one! :sick:
From frugal-one's link:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, addressed some of the reopening concerns on Wednesday, urging states to recognize that "when you open, that doesn't mean that everything is okay."
"You still have to practice a degree of caution and carefully go through the process of trying to normalize. That means you still should be wearing a mask. You still should be trying as best as possible to have that physical distancing," Fauci told Robin Roberts on ABC's "Good Morning America" on Wednesday. "We know everyone wants to approach normality and get things back to normal including the economy, but that doesn't mean that all bets are off. And that's the reason why we say be careful and do it prudently." Fauci has referred to COVID19 as his "worst nightmare."
Trump and his toadies' refusal to model social distancing and mask wearing--basically just denying there's any need for caution--is influencing a gullible public. That may be why our incidence graphs have plateaued at such a high level. We're number one! :sick:
Fauci has referred to COVID19 as his "worst nightmare."
Yes. And Dr Fauci was on the forefront of the AIDS epidemic. Trust me, those of us in healthcare would rather see our patients with MRSA or C-diff....which used to be the sucky contagions!
Yes. And Dr Fauci was on the forefront of the AIDS epidemic. Trust me, those of us in healthcare would rather see our patients with MRSA or C-diff....which used to be the sucky contagions!
Along with Luc Montagnier and Robert Gallo, IIRC. Those were the days.
But as Fauci has pointed out, Ebola and HIV/AIDS aren't nearly as easy to get as COVID19.
Along with Luc Montagnier and Robert Gallo, IIRC. Those were the days.
But as Fauci has pointed out, Ebola and HIV/AIDS aren't nearly as easy to get as COVID19.
Yes. That's why we don't list those. The contagions of recent are the ones I mentioned.
I have to admit, even I didn't expect we'd start getting the covid spike news before the rally even began.
https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-campaign-tulsa-0cba2748-3e9f-4c91-8d99-a8d7e0afa86e.html
ETA, apparently the people in the photo haven't gotten to the free mask station yet...
It seems inevitable that some time people are going to want to challenge their freedom to mass assemble whether it's football games, or school events, or whatever. Probably later would be less risky, but hopefully some one is planning to collect some information that could help assess the risks for the future beyond just anecdotal stories. After all, they have the names of the people who are registered and could do some sort of follow up to determine problems. Seems like an opportunity with 20,000 test volunteers.
ApatheticNoMore
6-20-20, 6:11pm
yes theoretically stuff could be learned from contract tracing, but we don't really do that in the U.S.. So basically everything we learned from contract tracing is from South Korea or maybe China it seems, because hey South Korea does contract tracing.
You would think well if we're going to run a giant human experiment, and let infections run rampant, well I can't say I approve, probably a crime, but if we're going ahead with it anyway, then let's at least learn some scientific stuff from it. But no. Even if we did contract tracing more, you think Trump would allow this to be traced, no way. He doesn't even like that testing is going on because "it makes us look bad". That's what we're dealing with.
Well, it looks like I'm going to have to recalculate my numbers. The arena was half full and the overflow area empty. And the one protestor that showed up was arrested well before the start and taken away. They probably should have left her so that she could have provided some excitement for the evening.
On the plus side the crowd was suitably impressed that he could drink from a glass of water with only one hand.
So I see that 1) Herman Cain likely caught covid at the Tulsa event and is now in the hospital seriously sick after keeping up a full travel schedule and not isolating at all. And 2) trump is having another death rally, this time at Mt Rushmore. The governor has proudly proclaimed that they won’t be social distancing and masks will be optional.
I wonder if he’ll do a better job of attracting stupid people to attend tonight than he did in Oklahoma.
So I see that 1) Herman Cain likely caught covid at the Tulsa event and is now in the hospital seriously sick after keeping up a full travel schedule and not isolating at all. And 2) trump is having another death rally, this time at Mt Rushmore. The governor has proudly proclaimed that they won’t be social distancing and masks will be optional.
I wonder if he’ll do a better job of attracting stupid people to attend tonight than he did in Oklahoma.I was at Mt Rushmore two weeks ago and was one of only a few folks wearing a mask. Trump had nothing to do with that.
https://scontent.ffsd3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/103596390_10217437952556045_732841201534283861_n.j pg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=0wMBSHK-1yUAX_zJs5F&_nc_ht=scontent.ffsd3-1.fna&oh=dff195a9cb308004153c9c42bf810057&oe=5F24FB43
https://scontent.ffsd3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/104165245_10217437952236037_1801909922955703351_n. jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_ohc=erMPScmtUsUAX_FW_tw&_nc_ht=scontent.ffsd3-1.fna&oh=b451916cb10e5adbff06118611c6241c&oe=5F26CE8A
Today I was out walking and passed a church in the neighborhood that appeared to be having a funeral or some type of gathering. There were at least 200 people, maybe more, the parking lot packed and folks just lined up to get in. This just doesn't happen here. At the risk of sounding racist, I will say it may be cultural phenomena at work here, because they looked to be primarily Pacific Islanders from the dress, very formal costuming.
But it surprised me and at the same time it was worrisome in regards to uptick among their community.
I was at Mt Rushmore two weeks ago and was one of only a few folks wearing a mask. Trump had nothing to do with that.
Today, on the other hand, is an entirely different situation. I'm glad you aren't there today. I wouldn't want you to be the next Herman Cain.
We were happy to stop in a Kroger in a minority neighborhood and see almost every single person was wearing a mask and there was a large display of masks and sanitizer. Actually quite different from many of our white neighborhoods. However, it was quite crowded with early holiday weekend shoppers. We are just used to shopping at very odd hours.
iris lilies
7-3-20, 8:03pm
Alan, you look like a bandit.
Alan, you look like a bandit.I bought myself a Stetson hat in Wyoming and have been considering taking up robbing stage coaches, but I haven't found one yet. Guess I came to the game a little late.
iris lilies
7-3-20, 8:09pm
Alan, you look like a bandit.
I don’t know if you’re planning on swinging through Georgia, but they set aside their law that bans conceal carry people wearing masks. During COVID-19 one can in fact wear a mask while carrying a gun.
Alan, you look like a bandit.
I don’t know if you’re planning on swinging through Georgia, but they set aside their law that bans conceal carry people wearing masks. During COVID-19 one can in fact wear a mask while carrying a gun.
I'll probably be home the middle of next week without getting to Georgia but I gotta admit wearing a mask hasn't stopped me from anything yet in the dozen or so states visited so far.
I wonder if he’ll do a better job of attracting stupid people to attend tonight than he did in Oklahoma.It looks like he attracted quite a few protesters who have blocked the entrance with vans chained together and tires removed or slashed. They appear to be white liberals so I'm assuming they're not BLM or Native American activists, just average white liberals showing their wokeness to each other.
I'm back in South Dakota now but on the other side of the state in Sioux Falls, I'm kinda wishing I had time to get back over there just to watch the festivities.
I'm back in South Dakota now but on the other side of the state in Sioux Falls, I'm kinda wishing I had time to get back over there just to watch the festivities.
Personally I wouldn't want to be near there. In addition to turning Indpendence Day into a divisive partisan political event in a way no other president before him has, they may well burn down the whole place. From what I've read back when they used to do fireworks there the fire brigade would spend the night running around squashing embers. Currently they're in the middle of a drought. What could possibly go wrong. Especially since I'm sure that with his insecurities he insisted on the biglyist fireworks display ever seen.
Personally I wouldn't want to be near there. In addition to turning Indpendence Day into a divisive partisan political event in a way no other president before him has, they may well burn down the whole place. A divisive partisan event, how so? Was it divisive for Obama or Clinton to visit the monument during their campaigns in 2008? How about when Bernie Sanders visited during his first campaign?
It looks like he attracted quite a few protesters who have blocked the entrance with vans chained together and tires removed or slashed. They appear to be white liberals so I'm assuming they're not BLM or Native American activists, just average white liberals showing their wokeness to each other.
I'm back in South Dakota now but on the other side of the state in Sioux Falls, I'm kinda wishing I had time to get back over there just to watch the festivities.
Out that way BLM stands for Bureau of Land Management and after their site at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge was occupied by right wing nutcases they would have every right to protest Trump, who cozies up to the extremists.
And another reason to be glad to not be anywhere near there. Don jr’s girlfriend, a major trump fundraiser, is positive and there. I assume like Tulsa this will result in a whole bunch of campaign staffers getting infected.
Can’t fix stupid.
A divisive partisan event, how so? Was it divisive for Obama or Clinton to visit the monument during their campaigns in 2008? How about when Bernie Sanders visited during his first campaign?
Regarding divisiveness, Trump answered your question himself during his death rally.
"Make no mistake, this left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American revolution," Trump said.
"Our children are taught in school to hate their own country," he added.
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