Do You Think It's Possible? (Regarding Russia/Ukraine)

[gimmethesimplelife]

Do you think it's realistically possible that Russia may invade the Ukraine? Apparently earlier this week Joe Biden was quoted as saying if Russia invades, the whole world will change. What do you think?

This issue has not been on my radar until very recently when I've been cut back on OT. So I'm not 100 percent up to speed here - I'm just asking what others think. Rob

[ApatheticNoMore]

Nuclear war would change the whole world come to think of it. I don't know what Biden imagines they can win there.

[gimmethesimplelife]

Nuclear war would change the whole world come to think of it. I don't know what Biden imagines they can win there.Good point. And I wonder what kind of war it would be given nuclear weapons, and saying that nuclear were not used, what types of weaponry would be used? I've heard of logic bombs, destroying the grid so Americans have no electricity and also doing something, I don't know what, to cut off Internet access in the US.

It does seem to me that with all the advances in tech since WW2, that type of boots on the ground war is a thing of the past. So I see it, anyway. Rob

[Yppej]

Yes it is possible. The Allies are divided. Germany needs fuel that comes from Russia. Russia will seek to take advantage of the divisions.

[Alan]

I think it's possible. Putin is playing a geo-political game now to see how much resistance the NATO countries will put up. The US is now seen as weak and inefficient on the world stage and Germany is sitting on their hands, seemingly showing a lack of interest in whatever he does. Together, it's sort of an invitation to do whatever he wants with little to no consequences.

[frugal-one]

I think it's possible. Putin is playing a geo-political game now to see how much resistance the NATO countries will put up. The US is now seen as weak and inefficient on the world stage and Germany is sitting on their hands, seemingly showing a lack of interest in whatever he does. Together, it's sort of an invitation to do whatever he wants with little to no consequences.

Where do you see this?

[Alan]

Where do you see this?
Fiona Hill: Putin Sees US As Weak After Trump's 4 'Disastrous' Years (businessinsider.com) (https://www.businessinsider.com/fiona-hill-says-putin-sees-us-as-weak-after-4-disastrous-years-under-trump-2022-1) and elsewhere.
An excerpt from this link:
Hill also pointed to the Afghanistan withdrawal to explain why Putin sees an opportunity to challenge the West on Ukraine. President Joe Biden continues to face criticism in Washington and beyond over his handling of the Afghanistan pullout, which coincided with the Taliban regaining control of the country.
"From Russia's perspective, America's domestic travails after four years of Donald Trump's disastrous presidency, as well as the rifts he created with U.S. allies and then America's precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan, signal weakness," wrote Hill, who served as the top Russia advisor on the National Security Council under the Trump administration.

[razz]

Here is another view of the reason for Putin's efforts to destabilize European efforts to protect the Ukraine.

Russian troops are poised to invade Ukraine and yet many experts disagree on why. Does President Vladimir Putin want to restore the Russian Empire? Prevent Ukraine from joining NATO? Split Europe from the United States?

Well, now add another https://www.csmonitor.com/Daily/2022/20220126?cmpid=ema:bundle:20220126:1138956:read&sfmc_sub=13805523&id=1138956#1138956 theory to the mix. Based on a new report from corruption watchdog Transparency International, seven countries in the former Soviet Union – from Estonia to Uzbekistan – have made significant reforms toward honest and clean governance in the last few years. Not so in Mr. Putin’s Russia. In the report’s ranking of countries on perceptions of corruption, Russia’s score has worsened. A new law, for example, has made reporting on corruption even riskier for pro-democracy activists.

It may be only a matter of time before Russian citizens wonder why so many neighbors are moving toward civic equality, transparent government, and other essentials for curbing corruption. Ukraine’s moves toward democratic ideals since 2014 may be driving Mr. Putin to end its progress. The country has a close association with Russian history, culture, and geography.

While Ukraine has instituted a host of anti-corruption reforms under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy since 2019, the Transparency report shows one of Russia’s other neighbors, Armenia, is the world’s top mover in making anti-corruption changes over the past few years. And that is despite the fact that the small landlocked nation of nearly 3 million suffered an embarrassing defeat in a brief war with Azerbaijan in 2020, triggering political turmoil.

Armenia’s military loss in the war, however, has been widely attributed to the country’s legacy of corruption from the Soviet era. It has stirred even more support for reforms, such as laws for an independent judiciary and a rule for public figures to declare their financial interests. By setting up anti-graft watchdogs, Armenia can help guarantee the country’s security, says Haykuhi Harutyunyan, head of a new body to prevent corruption.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a reformer who rose to power in a 2018 nonviolent “velvet” revolution, promised to end the country’s oligarch-led kleptocracy. “There will be no privileged people in Armenia and that’s it,” he said after taking power.

The Transparency report finds Armenia has “expanded civil liberties, paving the way for more sustainable civic engagement and accountability.” If such reforms in many of Russia’s neighbors are the real threat that worries Mr. Putin, they could also be the best defense against Russian meddling. Many nations have rallied behind Ukraine and are sending arms and money. They would only do so knowing that Ukrainians reject corruption as a social norm. And that also sends a strong signal to Russians to do the same.

[Yppej]

Location, location, location. Ukraine is a big flat plain that Napoleon's troops marched across and Hitler's tanks rolled across to attack Russia. The root of Putin's bullying is fear, as with all bullies.

[pinkytoe]

Wouldn't it be novel if the US could not be involved in a "war" for a few years?

[gimmethesimplelife]

Wouldn't it be novel if the US could not be involved in a "war" for a few years?Yes! I certainly welcome such. Rob

[LDAHL]

Well, it was certainly possible in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula. As to Putin’s motivation for his actions, it could be a desire to create friction within NATO, intimidate neighbors, conquer himself a corridor connecting to the Crimea or simply as theater for the home audience.

The risks would be some potential for military embarrassment at the hands of a motivated Ukrainian population, several years of imported body bags, economic sanctions or pushing neighbors into strengthening their defense establishments. I’ve read there are polls showing greater support in places like Sweden and Finland for possible NATO membership.

[LDAHL]

I see Ben and Jerry’s has taken a position on the Ukraine situation, insisting you cannot simultaneously promote peace and be prepared for war.

Personally, being the old Cold War dinosaur that I am, I think the odds for peace improve when potential predators need to consider the possibility of prey fighting back.