View Full Version : So.....War or No War?
gimmethesimplelife
3-5-22, 7:31pm
What do you think? Is this the precipice of WW3 or can face be saved some other way? I just have this antsy feeling sweeping change of some kind is coming. Rob
All depends on Vlad the Invader. Our best hope might be someone taking him out, but who knows the next one might be worse.
gimmethesimplelife
3-5-22, 8:11pm
All depends on Vlad the Invader. Our best hope might be someone taking him out, but who knows the next one might be worse.Senator Lindsey Graham (sp?), a well known conservative was quoted as saying assassination is the only fix here. Gotta say - this one time on this one issue, I agree 100 percent. Rob
Senator Lindsey Graham (sp?), a well known conservative was quoted as saying assassination is the only fix here. Gotta say - this one time on this one issue, I agree 100 percent. Rob
As a politician, Lindsey screwed that one up, he should have felt free to think that but shouldn't say such a thing in public. We wouldn't want people to think leaders should be assassinated due to actions or disagreements and that our senior politicians endorse the act.
That said, I'm not sure the sanctions against Putin and his top people won't accomplish the same thing. Those oligarchs will soon know, if not already, that Putin must be replaced if they ever hope to remain rich. I hear poison is popular in that country.
I wish my Board of Health was focused on issuing us iodine pills in case of nuclear war instead of ineffective covid mitigation strategies.
I wish my Board of Health was focused on issuing us iodine pills in case of nuclear war instead of ineffective covid mitigation strategies.
Ehhh, someone just needs to remind Vladimir of the concept of mutually assured destruction. If he were to initiate a launch he needs to know that 20 minutes later Moscow and anywhere else he may be hiding will be vaporized.
ApatheticNoMore
3-5-22, 9:47pm
I don't think it likely because I think Putin knew that there would only be so much backup for the Ukraine, it's not in Nato, and that the object is probably limited (I mean not for Ukrainians but in terms of global impacts). But then never say never, as we have been near nuclear war several times before.
Senator Lindsey Graham (sp?), a well known conservative was quoted as saying assassination is the only fix here. Gotta say - this one time on this one issue, I agree 100 percent. Rob
Would you be willing to kill him yourself, Rob?
Would you be willing to kill him yourself, Rob?
It probably wouldn't go well for him if he did, but he'd be an international hero in many people's eyes. Is there a point you're going for?
gimmethesimplelife
3-6-22, 10:24am
Would you be willing to kill him yourself, Rob?No. I couldn't do that. Both sides of my bloodline (Austrian/Russian) are responsible for numerous deaths in the past. I would not/can not/won't be a party to such. It would be insulting to my heritage AND also highly hypocrital given my take(s) on US police. I must pass. Rob
ToomuchStuff
3-6-22, 11:02am
No. I couldn't do that. Both sides of my bloodline (Austrian/Russian) are responsible for numerous deaths in the past. Rob
Then it would be continuing your heritage.
Ukraine I expect will fall. I have no idea how long they will keep it, with rebuilding costs, etc. I expect initially, a puppet government to be installed, not sure if it will stay.
What happens after that, depends on Putin and any that are part of Nato.
I still don't understand what would happen if the Ukraine is allowed to join the EU, though?
Does the EU have to help militarily, without the Nato forces that we contribute so much to?
Alan, don't you mean Polonium?
ToomuchStuff
3-6-22, 11:15am
Saw this, this morning, and had to laugh:
4230
I wish my Board of Health was focused on issuing us iodine pills in case of nuclear war instead of ineffective covid mitigation strategies.
Let's start a drinking game where we knock one back every time yppej attempts to divert the topic to masking.
Let's start a drinking game where we knock one back every time yppej attempts to divert the topic to masking.
I don't know if my liver could take it!
Saw this, this morning, and had to laugh:
4230
That's pretty funny, in a dark and twisted way!
Let's start a drinking game where we knock one back every time yppej attempts to divert the topic to masking.
I don't know if my liver could take it!
ROFLOL - I couldn't afford all the liquor it would take to play! I see things haven't changed much while I was away.
In the absence of Article 5 protection or Rob’s intervention, I think the most likely outcome is a sort of Chechnya writ large scenario. The history indicates the Russians will eventually murder and starve enough people to “control” the wrecked cities. How effective a subsequent resistance will be depends on Ukrainian morale and whether the West eventually loses interest in providing materiel support. That will probably persist whether Putin stays in power or not.
I don’t see an escalation to a nuclear exchange as likely. Putin may decide he’s got nothing to lose, but the Russian elite would probably disagree. Hopefully, we will see a reinvigorated and possibly enlarged NATO as a result. We will probably also see strengthened ties between Russia and China, at least as long as both parties see an advantage.
gimmethesimplelife
3-6-22, 5:43pm
Let's start a drinking game where we knock one back every time yppej attempts to divert the topic to masking.lol Rob
gimmethesimplelife
3-6-22, 6:22pm
I wonder what Edward Snowden's take on all this is? Rob
I wonder what Edward Snowden's take on all this is? Rob
That maybe he betrayed the wrong country?
ToomuchStuff
3-9-22, 4:05pm
That maybe he betrayed the wrong country?
I seriously doubt that.
My view is he is living in the country that America was emulating by violating fundamental principles, but that country is more open about, you have no rights.
I seriously doubt that.
My view is he is living in the country that America was emulating by violating fundamental principles, but that country is more open about, you have no rights.
So no real difference between the two?
ToomuchStuff
3-9-22, 10:55pm
So no real difference between the two?
There is supposed to be.
War powers and peace time are two different laws/sets of rules. Things like the Patriot act, allowed them to operate in wartime rules, without a declaration of war, during peace time.
What do you think? Is this the precipice of WW3 or can face be saved some other way? I just have this antsy feeling sweeping change of some kind is coming. Rob
I feel we are on the cusp of a whole new world. In many ways.
I feel we are on the cusp of a whole new world. In many ways.
Or a return to an old one that we deluded/flattered ourselves that we had left behind?
gimmethesimplelife
3-15-22, 7:47pm
That maybe he betrayed the wrong country?I don't see his actions as betrayal. I only hope he's safe in Russia. I wonder if Finland might take him? Rob
gimmethesimplelife
3-15-22, 7:48pm
I feel we are on the cusp of a whole new world. In many ways.I agree. The future is going to look very different, methinks. Rob
I don't see his actions as betrayal. I only hope he's safe in Russia. I wonder if Finland might take him? Rob
I wonder why Finland would want him.
Perhaps he could show an appropriate level of gratitude to his host country by enlisting in the great crusade to denazify Ukraine.
Finland? No more like China.
gimmethesimplelife
3-16-22, 11:57pm
I heard that Finland was offering Russians asylum and some small number have fled across the Russian/Finnish border. But today I also read that Russia has shut it borders to most all foreign nationals as of today. I'm all about resettlement for Ukrainians and for whatever Russian nationals have managed to flee Russia. Rob
I think that WWIII has been underway for some time already:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html
Teacher Terry
3-17-22, 10:38am
Unfortunately reached my number of free articles I can read this month.
I think that WWIII has been underway for some time already:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opinion/russia-ukraine-world-war-iii.html
Paraphrasing Fitzgerald, all the big interesting wars happen gradually, then suddenly.
I do think we’re a little loose in our designation of which wars are “world”. Couldn’t we consider the Seven Years War or some of the Napoleonic Wars as global in scope?
"Frequent suggestions that Putin has already lost the war or that he can’t possibly win when Ukrainians are united in their hatred for him or that he’s looking for an offramp — and that we should be thinking up ingenious ways to provide him with one — may turn out to be right. But they are grossly premature. This war is only in its third week; it took the Nazis longer to conquer Poland. The ability to subdue a restive population is chiefly a function of the pain an occupier is willing to inflict. For a primer on that, look at what Putin did to Grozny in his first year in office.
Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world. And our vocal aversion to confrontation is an invitation, not a deterrent, to Russian escalation." (From the NYT article)
"Frequent suggestions that Putin has already lost the war or that he can’t possibly win when Ukrainians are united in their hatred for him or that he’s looking for an offramp — and that we should be thinking up ingenious ways to provide him with one — may turn out to be right. But they are grossly premature. This war is only in its third week; it took the Nazis longer to conquer Poland. The ability to subdue a restive population is chiefly a function of the pain an occupier is willing to inflict. For a primer on that, look at what Putin did to Grozny in his first year in office.
Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world. And our vocal aversion to confrontation is an invitation, not a deterrent, to Russian escalation." (From the NYT article)
I’m not sure the Korean War comparison is terribly apt. Soviet pilots in Chinese aircraft operating far from either superpower’s territory would have had a level of deniability (and ignorability) that wouldn’t exist for a NATO fighter pursuing a Russian plane close to or over the Russian border.
Also the Korean conflict ended only 3-4 years after the first successful Soviet nuclear test. They would only have had a relative few weapons and delivery systems available, and certainly wouldn’t have been interested in a nuclear exchange with the West. The Soviet Union of 1952 was in many ways close to the zenith of its power and self-confidence, and not the ramshackle dictatorship of today with thousands of warheads at the command of an aging despot who could easily decide “apre moi, le deluge”.
Different situations, different set of risks. If Russia is to be driven from Ukrainian soil, the most likely way would seem to be some combination of a horrific and lengthy war of attrition and Russian internal coup.
ApatheticNoMore
3-18-22, 3:24pm
Americans squared off with Soviet pilots operating under Chinese or North Korean cover in the Korean War without blowing up the world.
How is that even relevant, the Soviet Union no longer exists, nor it's leaders. Not that we didn't get close to nuclear war at times. But I don't see how it is relevant to liken Putin's regime and it's likely actions to them. Russian missile stocks still exist alrighty.
Russian missile stocks still exist alrighty.
But do they? I used to be a physicist. I have spent time at Los Alamos using the fun gear there.
My understanding is that nuclear weapons require constant attention to remain functional. And in particular some of the voodoo components inside degrade with age and simple exposure to some of the other materials. Since the atomic test ban treaty, verifying functionality has required somewhat specialized particle accelerators along with large supercomputers to simulate and model the device.
I am not sure Russia is capable of doing that anymore.
The American Federation of scientists estimates about 4,500 operational weapons, and about 1,500 more awaiting dismantling. Even if they’re off by 90%, that would still make for a lot of tragedy.
If Pakistan can manage to maintain a nuclear capability, I have no doubt Russia can.
dado potato
3-18-22, 9:49pm
I hope for reconciliation and peace.
4283
happystuff
3-19-22, 9:57am
I hope for reconciliation and peace.
4283
Ditto.
I don’t know about the Russian ICBMs, but I bet they’ve got tactical nukes that would work. These are smaller ones that can be launched on the battlefield.
ToomuchStuff
3-19-22, 1:05pm
While the USSR is no more, the countries that were in it, like Ukraine, exist.
What I would be more worried about is a "briefcase nuke", being used by one of the countries.
What happened to all the nukes in the USSR? Did Ukraine, Belarous, etc. end up with any?
Did Ukraine, Belarous, etc. end up with any?
No.
Belarus permanently hosts nuclear weapons controlled by Russia. I believe Ukraine gave up it’s nuclear capability as part of the original independence deal.
What happened to all the nukes in the USSR? Did Ukraine, Belarous, etc. end up with any?
No.
For several years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the 3rd most powerful nuclear state in the world. Unfortunately, we and the UK convinced them to give up their nukes in exchange for the promise of security which was formalized in the Budapest Memorandum. I'm not sure what type of security we promised, but I suspect we're falling down on the job.
For several years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the 3rd most powerful nuclear state in the world.
Washington State now has the world's 3rd largest nuclear arsenal :-)
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/what-russias-nuclear-escalation-means-for-washington-state-home-to-the-globes-third-largest-atomic-arsenal/
Washington State now has the world's 3rd largest nuclear arsenal :-)
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/what-russias-nuclear-escalation-means-for-washington-state-home-to-the-globes-third-largest-atomic-arsenal/
That made me laugh out loud, but only briefly. I suppose that means we're the 3rd largest target...
That made me laugh out loud, but only briefly. I suppose that means we're the 3rd largest target...
In truth, we are a small high value target :-(
In truth, we are a small high value target :-(
I feel so special...>8)
Somebody has to be collateral damage.
Somebody has to be collateral damage.
:devil:
NYT article from today about the smaller nuclear weapons I mentioned a few days ago.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/21/science/russia-nuclear-ukraine.html
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