View Full Version : Recession
It’s pretty cool that biden has prevented one. I mean geez, unemployment is at a 50 year low and 528,000 jobs were added last month. Twice what had been predicted. And the jobs numbers for the past two months both got bumped up at the same time. And gas prices are dropping significantly so the next inflation numbers will likely be great since that was the biggest driving factor.
I guess the republicans will have to stick with the ‘LGBTQ folks and immigrants are evil and don’t get me started talking about how awful it is to let teachers discuss American history’ theme for the upcoming election.
Jobs lost or vacated during the pandemic shutdowns are finally coming back but the job numbers seem to be skewed by the increasing number of people taking part time and second jobs. (See charts below)
And gas prices are now down to only about $2.00 per gallon more than they were 18 months ago, that's a good sign but can we get it back down to where it should be during this administration? I guess we'll see.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZbRVdjXEAIuFva?format=png&name=900x900
https://scontent.fluk1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/295507321_638276101304061_658243888288542565_n.png ?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=sJMI7d-5XjAAX_LJk-l&_nc_ht=scontent.fluk1-1.fna&oh=03_AVKVoUdhOu9yv8QukBnKG5OTyH2S45xmfTNe7bdO-bL8pA&oe=63118DC7
littlebittybobby
8-6-22, 1:42am
Jobs lost or vacated during the pandemic shutdowns are finally coming back but the job numbers seem to be skewed by the increasing number of people taking part time and second jobs. (See charts below)
And gas prices are now down to only about $2.00 per gallon more than they were 18 months ago, that's a good sign but can we get it back down to where it should be during this administration? I guess we'll see.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZbRVdjXEAIuFva?format=png&name=900x900
https://scontent.fluk1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/295507321_638276101304061_658243888288542565_n.png ?_nc_cat=111&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=sJMI7d-5XjAAX_LJk-l&_nc_ht=scontent.fluk1-1.fna&oh=03_AVKVoUdhOu9yv8QukBnKG5OTyH2S45xmfTNe7bdO-bL8pA&oe=63118DC7Okay---Them charts n' graphs are about what Yossarian would have! Good job! But, personally--I feel like this country is going all to heck, and it's time for another regime change. Yup.Expecially to one that will issue immediate pardons to all the Jan 6 participants who have been railroaded. 4672
ApatheticNoMore
8-6-22, 2:45am
What is the estimate of people who can't work due to long covid now? 1 million, 4 million?
JP got his (home ownership, work from home job so he doesn't face high gas prices, etc). It doesn't matter that the next generation is priced out.
Gas prices have spiked around the world (likely price gouging) and have come down significantly; President Biden is not to blame.
JP got his (home ownership, work from home job so he doesn't face high gas prices, etc). It doesn't matter that the next generation is priced out.
I express happiness that people are finding jobs and that gas prices are dropping and you read it as ‘I’ve got mine, so screw everyone else.’ What a curious perspective.
Gas prices have spiked around the world (likely price gouging) and have come down significantly; President Biden is not to blame.
It seems pretty obvious to me that he actually is to blame, not for the complete jump in prices but certainly for a large portion of it. The administration likes to tell us that increasing gas prices were caused by Russia's incursion into Ukraine but the die was cast well before that. The chart below shows the rise in gas prices from 2020 through spring of 2021, before and after the election but before Putin's price increase. It only got worse after that.
https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Image-2243.png
I that the worldwide chart?
Also, correlation is not causation. How/why would President Biden cause a rise in gas prices?
We couldn't stop Russia from invading Ukraine, but we didn't have to spike inflation by throwing all that money at Ukraine, which paid Biden's son big bucks to run Burisma though he had no energy experience. Our biolabs in Ukraine also are a possible culprit in the pandemic. We should stop meddling in foreign countries and funding their bilogical warfare aka gain of function research.
And JP is oblivious to the economic suffering of the next generation. If they have McJobs and gas has come down (but is still twice as high as it was before Biden's election) all is well.
79% of Americans disagree.
It seems pretty obvious to me that he actually is to blame, not for the complete jump in prices but certainly for a large portion of it. The administration likes to tell us that increasing gas prices were caused by Russia's incursion into Ukraine but the die was cast well before that.
I'd be curious as to what die was cast?
Gas prices seem to be a bit of a mystery to me, but it was pretty obvious that post covid return to transportation and travel would increase demand and gas prices would follow, which has little to do with national or international politics and more to do with greedy big oil as I see it. I'm not to sure what they are dropping now, other than oil supply volumes being a production game for the industry.
We couldn't stop Russia from invading Ukraine, but we didn't have to spike inflation by throwing all that money at Ukraine, which paid Biden's son big bucks to run Burisma though he had no energy experience. Our biolabs in Ukraine also are a possible culprit in the pandemic. We should stop meddling in foreign countries and funding their bilogical warfare aka gain of function research.
And JP is oblivious to the economic suffering of the next generation. If they have McJobs and gas has come down (but is still twice as high as it was before Biden's election) all is well.
79% of Americans disagree.
That certainly covered a wide range of conspiracy theories.
I that the worldwide chart?
Also, correlation is not causation. How/why would President Biden cause a rise in gas prices?
Governments use their administrative states to manipulate their energy costs. Europe has been doing it for years to keep their costs high in order to decrease demand. On a smaller scale, some US states such as California have been doing it as well which is why gas prices are consistently higher there.
Our previous administration used the administrative state to increase supply of available crude oil and incentivize investment in refinement which resulted in some of the lowest gas prices we'd seen in years. The current administration used the administrative state to over-rule those incentives and restrict the available supply of crude oil as part of their climate change goals, which has resulted in some of the highest prices we've seen in years. That was of course the goal, decrease fossil fuel usage by restricting supply and making it too expensive for everyone not committed enough to climate change to switch to electric vehicles.
The only part of it I don't understand is why this administration isn't publicly patting itself on the back for making such great strides in its overall plan. It probably has something to do with the pain it causes voters.
Politically speaking, I think inflation is Biden’s biggest albatross. You can trumpet jobs or wage growth all you like, but if everyone in the country gets a reminder every time they make a purchase, you’re going to have a problem.
I don’t think US presidents have a decisive impact on inflation, but frantically searching for scapegoats and excuses certainly makes it look like ownership. Calling a big bill with the spending in the front and revenues coming later the “Inflation Reduction Act” may have consequences for the Dems in the next couple of years. Taking a victory lap after one arguably good jobs report could backfire as well.
ApatheticNoMore
8-6-22, 11:48am
I express happiness that people are finding jobs and that gas prices are dropping and you read it as ‘I’ve got mine, so screw everyone else.’
I think you are right about the impact of unemployment, little can be so devastating to individuals. I don't weigh in here or there on Biden, as in 6 months we could be in severe recession, everything changes (and the Fed has been pursuing recession, outright. They are pretty much saying they are trying to cause a recession).
As for people pretending things getting harder for the next generation (Gen Z?), is something new under Biden. I mean we are talking things that have kind of been happening for over a decade since AT LEAST the great recession of 2008, so much so that it has become a cliche about millenials - how hard they have it. But if we are talking housing, remember housing prices took off well BEFORE 2008 because it was a housing driven recession- but they dropped afterward, yea a bit, for like 1 year, and then up and away. Supposedly much of it is because not enough housing has been constructed. But that's Biden's fault somehow? I mean I suppose in some alternative universe Biden makes a housing bill central to his presidency or something.
The label, "Inflation Reduction Act" seems to me to be a thinly veiled marketing scheme. Something like Greenhouse Emissions Reduction Act seems more descriptive.
Its no secret that the big oil companies have had record profits recently. Perhaps they are sending quite a bit outside the states to countries who pay more? I found it curious when driving through oil country in Texas that every pump jack to be seen was furiously pumping away when normally they are mostly idle.
My cause and effect chart : )
4674
And JP is oblivious to the economic suffering of the next generation. If they have McJobs and gas has come down (but is still twice as high as it was before Biden's election) all is well.
I’m well aware that there has been a class war going on in this country since 1980. It’s not clear to me how me being successful in that environment means that I don’t care about people that are less successful. Like many other successful people I know I donate time and money towards organizations working to achieve better economic equality both at the individual level and at the more broad societal level.
President Biden confronted that notion head on:
The President also sought to head off Republican arguments that he has contributed to the higher gasoline prices with his environmental policies after recommitting the United States to the Paris climate accord and making it harder for energy firms inside the country to produce oil and gas.
He argued that a long-term strategy to wean the country off fossil fuels and transition to renewables -- a core goal of his presidency as he tackles global warming -- also makes sense for American national security.
"If we do what we can, it will mean that no one has to worry about the price at the gas pump in the future," Biden said. "That'll mean tyrants like Putin won't be able to use fossil fuels as weapons against other nations."
Of course, if big oil wanted to bring prices down (clearly, they don't), they could just take advantage of the countless leases outstanding.
Also, prices ebb and flow all the time--I ran across a 2018 article about $5.45 gas in which Trump's Iran policy was blamed. I'll be glad when fossil fuels are just a memory, personally.
Okay---Them charts n' graphs are about what Yossarian would have! Good job! But, personally--I feel like this country is going all to heck, and it's time for another regime change. Yup.Expecially to one that will issue immediate pardons to all the Jan 6 participants who have been railroaded. 4672
You mean the traitors should be executed for trying to overthrow the government.
I'd be curious as to what die was cast?
Gas prices seem to be a bit of a mystery to me, but it was pretty obvious that post covid return to transportation and travel would increase demand and gas prices would follow, which has little to do with national or international politics and more to do with greedy big oil as I see it. I'm not to sure what they are dropping now, other than oil supply volumes being a production game for the industry.
.
Chicken lady
8-7-22, 7:43pm
My gen Z kid just got her first real job with benefits and an actual salary. She had to move from a red state to a blue state to make that happen. The raise more than covers the cost of living increase.
iris lilies
8-8-22, 1:09pm
My gen Z kid just got her first real job with benefits and an actual salary. She had to move from a red state to a blue state to make that happen. The raise more than covers the cost of living increase.
I am glad she made this change.
iris lilies
10-4-22, 2:03pm
I’m not happy about the stock market. President Joe Biden is quite happy that the last months inflation rate was only a percentage point. Maybe he expected worse and didn’t tell us?
The “inflation reduction act” is such an Orwellian name. If I let myself get creeped out by things like this I would be creeped out. But I just think of it as more government shenanigans so what else is new, yawn.
To assume one of the longest bull market in history would continue forever could be a mistake in financial planning for some, but that and Trump tax cuts certainly put a lot of money into the economy for consumers to increase demand and ramp prices up. If history is any indication there will always be cycles and after things get bad they will get better.
I suspect the specifics of the so called inflation reduction act could be elusive and it is misnamed, but I doubt that much of it has been enacted so far.
Considering that inflation is in significant part driven by expectations, it could be counterproductive. I think calling a bill the “Inflation Reduction Act” is something of a red flag for anyone whose trust in government policy is less than absolute. Sort of like passing the “Don’t Think About Elephants Act”. Or the “Trust Us, We Know What We’re Doing Act”.
iris lilies
10-4-22, 4:07pm
To assume one of the longest bull market in history would continue forever could be a mistake in financial planning for some, but that and Trump tax cuts certainly put a lot of money into the economy for consumers to increase demand and ramp prices up. If history is any indication there will always be cycles and after things get bad they will get better.
I suspect the specifics of the so called inflation reduction act could be elusive and it is misnamed, but I doubt that much of it has been enacted so far.
That’s OK, I don’t expect the stock market to go up and up and up. I expect it to go down. down this much? I dunno.
Honestly, I was happy enough with our last asset statement which was, gosh, end of July I’m thinking? Maybe mid August? Yes it was down but not by that much, partially because we have so much invested that is always generating income. But I would rather not look at it as a statement right now, plugging my ears and singing trala trala.
I've seen recently that inflation in Germany and Great Britain are running about 10% inflation. I don't think it can be totally divorced from politics, but it does seem like a global issue. My total market index funds were down about 20% YTD a few days ago. Adjusted for inflation, the buying power is even further reduced. Then there's the short term bond funds. I have to say it's little discouraging regardless of who's to blame. It makes the 6 month CD's paying .05% look pretty good.
"If I were president" I'd be raising taxes and paying down debt instead of raising interest rates, which would probably be a sure way not to get reelected and in these times maybe get a few death threats, too. The government is going to be buying some pretty expensive debt these days.
frugal-one
10-4-22, 5:37pm
I never understand why everyone insists on not raising taxes ... especially cutting taxes on the rich???? We can thank trump for some this fiasco.
Today the market is up over 800 pts. .... scary roller coaster.
I never understand why everyone insists on not raising taxes ... especially cutting taxes on the rich???? We can thank trump for some this fiasco.
I've never understood why people think if you just took away more of something someone else has, all would be right. I guess that's fed in part by a progressive tax scheme but I think it's mostly just meanness. I think we should have a flat tax that applies to everyone.
Today the market is up over 800 pts. .... scary roller coaster.
Yes, the Dow was up over 800 points today and over 700 yesterday. But it's still down nearly 8000 points from just over a year ago. I never thought I'd miss those mean tweets but I'm running low on all the money that went along with them.
frugal-one
10-4-22, 7:21pm
Imagine how much worse it would be. I will be happy when the tweets are permanently silenced.
Imagine how much worse it would be.
I'm trying, but can't. Can you elaborate?
frugal-one
10-5-22, 5:07am
It doesn’t take much of an imagination….try harder. If for no other reason the constant barrage of lies that the foolish base believes.
Tax cuts for the rich is ridiculous…. take/tax more from the poor or middle class? …doesn’t make sense ..
Other reasons but not interested in rehashing… we’ve discussed repeatedly and you continue to keep your heat in the sand. Don’t see the point. You see the party republican and you vote… no matter what…. even an attempted coup doesn’t dissuade you.
I always have to chuckle when anyone who lived through the trump presidency accuses democrats of meanness or of not following political ‘norms’. The lack of self awareness would be charming if not for the fact that trump’s party would like to destroy social security and Medicare and raise taxes on the poor. Those things seem far more mean than rescinding trump’s tax cuts on the rich. They are also obsessed with taking away the bodily autonomy of 50% of the population seems pretty mean too.
I've never understood why people think if you just took away more of something someone else has, all would be right. I guess that's fed in part by a progressive tax scheme but I think it's mostly just meanness. I think we should have a flat tax that applies to everyone.
I like the idea of a flat tax too, but I can't picture Americans ever going for it. There are too many wealthy and influential people benefiting from the current tax code and it would just be too big of a change for the rest. Wasn't there a Republican promise to simplify tax returns so that they could be done on a post card?
I have wondered about how many critics of the so called inflation reduction act actually know what is in it? I can speculate that much of the criticism comes from conservative talk shows rather than objective analysis, but I don't know for sure. There are mixed opinions from non-partisan groups as to whether it will affect inflation or reduce the deficit, but it is the first significant attempt by the government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
And if republicans win in November it will all be gone along with any rights that women have...
iris lilies
10-5-22, 10:30am
And if republicans win in November it will all be gone along with any rights that women have...
Please elaborate on the “ any rights that women have.” What do you mean?
frugal-one
10-5-22, 10:40am
Please elaborate on the “ any rights that women have.” What do you mean?
Duh... any that are still left.
Portuguese John Here
10-5-22, 1:56pm
Heard an old man, he goes by the name Milton Friedman, explaining inflation and recession in a very easy way:
Inflation is like alcoholism. When you start drinking, or printing too much money, the good effects come first, and the bad effects only come later. That's why in both cases there is a strong temptation to over do it, to drink too much, or to print too much money. When it comes to the cure, it's the other way around, when you stop drinking or when you stop printing money, the bad effects come first, and the good effects only come later, that's why it's so hard to persist with the cure.
Everywhere in the world, the price of living is more expensive, and the paychecks remain the same. This being a fact, I believe, I still see the same lifestyles: the restaurants are still full, the shopping malls are still full, people still go on expensive vacations.
Please elaborate on the “ any rights that women have.” What do you mean?
Consider “The Handmaid’s Tale” as the Left’s version of “Atlas Shrugged”, and you’ll be in the ballpark.
iris lilies
10-5-22, 5:40pm
Consider “The Handmaid’s Tale” as the Left’s version of “Atlas Shrugged”, and you’ll be in the ballpark.
I have enjoyed The Handmaid’s Tale TV production, the first few seasons anyway, as good dystopian drama with high production values. As an often Republican voter I don’t see it as a blueprint for the party’s path forward.
I would like to point out that it is an old work and it’s been around for what now 20-30 years? There was a film 20+ years ago.
But at this point they need to retire the production because it is repetitious. How many times can the handmaid thwart her oppressors and gain control? Just end it already.
But at this point they need to retire the production because it is repetitious. How many times can the handmaid thwart her oppressors and gain control? Just end it already.
Wait, wait, so, like Star Wars?
rosarugosa
10-6-22, 6:27am
Heard an old man, he goes by the name Milton Friedman, explaining inflation and recession in a very easy way:
Everywhere in the world, the price of living is more expensive, and the paychecks remain the same. This being a fact, I believe, I still see the same lifestyles: the restaurants are still full, the shopping malls are still full, people still go on expensive vacations.
Interesting, John. I just read something similar in the book Atomic Habits. The author says that with good habits, we pay the price up front and reap the rewards later, and with bad habits, we get the reward up front and pay the price down the road.
littlebittybobby
10-6-22, 11:57am
Okay---One zillionaire only needs so much to live, even if he/she/it has 10 Royals Royces and a Ferrari, and 100 pair of shoes. Plus, a Yacht & a plane. The rest of His/Her/its money is invested---in Banks, in Real Estate, in Companies that employ people. All of that capital benefits almost all Americans. Libtards think the wealth should be shared--requisitioned-- so the "less fortunate" can all have a nice home(or an apartment building complex to wreck), an Escalade, and not have to work. Or else--give it to da po' fokes in Africa & of course--the Middle East, after we bomb all their infrastructure, in order to "win". Because, that's where it goes, when that happens.. See? Hope that helps you some.
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