The Return of Doctor Doom

[LDAHL]

I see Paul Erlich, predictor of the starving seventies, is back on “Sixty Minutes” telling us mankind is unsustainable. You would have thought they could have come up with a more updated prophet of doom.

[Rogar]

The concept of a sixth extinction is not uncommon among some scientists. I read the book by Elisabeth Kolbert and David Attenborough is pretty big on it in his nature shows. I'd certainly not rule it out based on what I've seen and think I know. I'd admit Erhich had a bit of a vendition gloat now that it's become popular concept again.

[iris lilies]

Is that guy still alive?whoah.

[littlebittybobby]

Okay----Yah, Paul Ehrlich has got to be "Up there" in years. But hey---I don't doubt that there will be at some point some cataclysmic event(s) that cause extinction of the human species or at least greatly reduce our numbers. I figure we can do SOME things that will help avoid immediate hazards, and extend life, as we know it. But, there are things that are beyond our control. Way it is. The Religionists attribute this factor to the will of God, see? But yeah----change is constant, in the universe. It may be barely perceptable, but it is always changing. That said, you've got sky-is-falling zealots, appealing to people who are looking for SOMETHING to believe in, if they are not by nature a Church person. See? Hope that helps you some. Thankk Mee.

[bae]

David Wallace-Wells had a pretty good article the other day:



...
Now, with the world already 1.2 degrees hotter, scientists believe that warming this century will most likely fall between two or three degrees. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27 climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with slower action and bad climate luck. Those numbers may sound abstract, but what they suggest is this: Thanks to astonishing declines in the price of renewables, a truly global political mobilization, a clearer picture of the energy future and serious policy focus from world leaders, we have cut expected warming almost in half in just five years.
...


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html

[catherine]

I love David Wallace-Wells, and I got another one of his articles in my inbox the other day: The World is Losing its Biologic Complexity. Unfortunately We Can't Fix that with Decarbonization Alone.

There does not seem to be a similar shift coming for biodiversity, whose story remains largely the one we know already from “Silent Spring” to “The Lorax,” from “The Sixth Extinction” to “The End of Nature.” Even the most ambitious proposals — preserving 30 percent of the planet’s surface, protecting the Amazon from further deforestation — seem to point to a future defined as much by normalization as by conservation. We may well look around at that denuded world a generation from now and blithely conclude that “everything is fine.” But we’ll still probably marvel in wondrous disbelief that the planet was ever as full of life as it was in 2023.

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=253&emc=edit_dww_20221221&instance_id=80772&nl=david-wallace-wells&productCode=DWW&regi_id=75715320&segment_id=120468&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fb93a347f-3242-538b-bcb8-bcce187887eb&user_id=53d0c6927438fd8c19a6b142f102f5fe

[bae]

I love David Wallace-Wells, and I got another one of his articles in my inbox the other day: The World is Losing its Biologic Complexity. Unfortunately We Can't Fix that with Decarbonization Alone.

... We may well look around at that denuded world a generation from now and blithely conclude that “everything is fine.” But we’ll still probably marvel in wondrous disbelief that the planet was ever as full of life as it was in 2023.


I read Farley Mowat's "Sea of Slaughter" some years back, I'm not sure folks living in most of the coastal regions of the USA understand what has been lost.

I've talked to ~100 year old folks here about the quantity and variety of sealife that used to exist in the Salish Sea, and this pristine-looking-to-our-eyes ecosystem here is almost a desert by comparison. I went up the coast to the Haida Gwaii about 10 years ago, and the (still-diminished) ecosystem there was so rich and productive by comparison that it made me quite sad. (You could have harvested dinner by simply scooping your dinner pot in the water off the dock...)

[ApatheticNoMore]

And then we are back to Paul Ehrlich, because his focus was population, and that's not the immediate issue with climate change (it's not the most urgent thing to address to address it), but with the loss of biodiversity it plays a part.

Meanwhile on climate change apparently Europe is experiencing the worst heat wave for this time of year ever recorded. That is what 1.2 (some climate scientist say it's really at 1.3 now) looks like. Another thing the numbers like degrees hide is that climate scientists did not predict the degree of destruction we are seeing at this degree of warming to happen at this degree of warming. They thought it would have to be much more warming to see some of the things we have seen (like the heat dome). So might be things are more sensitive to a given degree (celsius) of climate change than expected.

[catherine]

I've talked to ~100 year old folks here about the quantity and variety of sealife that used to exist in the Salish Sea, and this pristine-looking-to-our-eyes ecosystem here is almost a desert by comparison. I went up the coast to the Haida Gwaii about 10 years ago, and the (still-diminished) ecosystem there was so rich and productive by comparison that it made me quite sad. (You could have harvested dinner by simply scooping your dinner pot in the water off the dock...)

I agree--we're losing our benchmark for what the ecosystem used to be. As you said, I've also seen pictures of people standing in the waters in your part of the country, with salmon so thick the people are just standing there, watching the fish swim past them by the hundreds.

When I think about how the miracle the world has given us has simmered to life so slowly and so elegantly over millions of years, and then I think about how, in such a brief time--especially recently, maybe 3-4 generations--we have managed to destroy so much of it, I do fear that one day we will be living in a world of a paved paradise and fake plastic trees because there will be nothing left.

[JaneV2.0]

David Wallace-Wells had a pretty good article the other day:



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/climate-change-warming-world.html

When they harken back to panics past, I think of The Population Bomb and how we were all supposed to run around with our hair on fire, and now the world population is constricting and we're worrying about under-population. I lean toward the "Pollyanna" view, myself.

"...the United Nations predicted that a world more than two degrees warmer would lead to “endless suffering.” "
Yeah--WHO is going to enforce global veganism. :0! (I hope I'm kidding...)

[Rogar]

Erlichs 60 minutes talk was called, the vanishing wild. He really didn't talk that much about global warming that much. He talked about a sustainable population, overfishing, and deforestation and habitat loss. and extinction. Dr. Doom could very well have been right had it not been for the green revolution. Maybe we are going through some sort of renewable energy revolution now. I imagine us humans are clever enough to preserve the species, but it could get a little lonely and boring without the wild creatures. I think we've become a little myopic over global warming as the only environmental concern.

[ApatheticNoMore]

I think climate change gets the most attention because it is the most immediate cause of much of the death of the natural world one sees around them. Plus it also makes life hard for humans. But that doesn't mean it is the only environmental problem.

[Rogar]

I think climate change gets the most attention because it is the most immediate cause of much of the death of the natural world one sees around them. Plus it also makes life hard for humans. But that doesn't mean it is the only environmental problem.

Of course. However, I could think that the focus on climate tends to dimmish other problems disproportionately. In the end quite a few of them are interrelated.

[bae]

Of course. However, I could think that the focus on climate tends to dimmish other problems disproportionately. In the end quite a few of them are interrelated.

I think it is essential to adopt a broad systems-level approach to planetary management. Population, resources, energy, climate, waste, ...

Pulling on just a single piece of the Jenga pile isn't the best approach.

[jp1]

It intrigues me that I, who doesn’t have any kids/grandkids, seems more concerned about the future of the planet than lots of people who do have kids/grandkids. Perhaps there is a rational explanation for this. But I doubt the kids/grandkids of the unconcerned old folks who participate here will offer their opinions since our demographic tends towards the geriatric.

[iris lilies]

It intrigues me that I, who doesn’t have any kids/grandkids, seems more concerned about the future of the planet than lots of people who do have kids/grandkids. Perhaps there is a rational explanation for this. But I doubt the kids/grandkids of the unconcerned old folks who participate here will offer their opinions since our demographic tends towards the geriatric.
How are you measuring concern? Words typed on the Internet? Is “concern” equal to actions?

[Teacher Terry]

I disagree JP as many on this forum are concerned and have been doing what they can on a daily basis.

[catherine]

It intrigues me that I, who doesn’t have any kids/grandkids, seems more concerned about the future of the planet than lots of people who do have kids/grandkids. Perhaps there is a rational explanation for this. But I doubt the kids/grandkids of the unconcerned old folks who participate here will offer their opinions since our demographic tends towards the geriatric.

I was watching a documentary on Greta Thunberg, and she was saying that having a child up there at the podium on the world stage talking about adults stealing their future has been a very compelling message, but I'm sure it doesn't reach the ears of many. Here's the quote that she referred to: “You say you love your children above all else and yet you are stealing their future in front of their very eyes.”

I certainly think about my children and grandchildren. I recognize that my decision to have 4 children is an ecological "sin" in itself, but a) they are all people who have adopted simple lives themselves and consume minimally and b) that ship has sailed of course, so I try to do whatever I can to minimize other impacts. I believe firmly that the we (meaning people in developed countries who measure progress with purely economic metrics) don't treat our own homes the way we are trashing the earth, and there will be karma to pay.

[JaneV2.0]

I'm skeptical of much of "the sky is falling" rhetoric, but we should certainly reconsider our frantic consumption/throwaway habits, though capitalism makes that nearly impossible, I guess. We can all do something to mitigate the damage caused by humans.

Apparently, population is self-limiting and starting a slow decline. It's amusing seeing the rise in pro-natalism among a certain segment of the population that seems to think it's their mission to scold and browbeat women into reproducing. That ship has sailed.

[frugal-one]

I am starting to believe the sky is falling. Look at the climate now? It is hard not to think otherwise unless you don't believe in climate change.

[Alan]

I am starting to believe the sky is falling. Look at the climate now? It is hard not to think otherwise unless you don't believe in climate change.
I think you're talking about weather. The recent heat wave in the South and South/West is still less than it was in the entire decade of the 1930's, with 80% to 90% higher rates of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now. The climate has changed dramatically over eons and what little change we've seen in modern times (although not in the last 8 to 10 years) doesn't seem to be a 'sky is falling' event.

The head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is even cautioning alarmists against saying such things.

[catherine]

I think you're talking about weather. The recent heat wave in the South and South/West is still less than it was in the entire decade of the 1930's, with 80% to 90% higher rates of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now. The climate has changed dramatically over eons and what little change we've seen in modern times (although not in the last 8 to 10 years) doesn't seem to be a 'sky is falling' event.

The head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is even cautioning alarmists against saying such things.

The problem is, the calamity is part of a series of planetary systems failures due to human activity. It's not just a CO2 number: it's wildlife habitat loss, raping of marine life, mass extinctions, desertification, exponential increase in extreme events. What if the sky is not quite falling? is it even ethical to continue smugly, business-as-usual, trashing the water, air and earth with all the hubris it takes to not blink an eye at the destruction?

[Rogar]

I think you're talking about weather. The recent heat wave in the South and South/West is still less than it was in the entire decade of the 1930's, with 80% to 90% higher rates of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now. The climate has changed dramatically over eons and what little change we've seen in modern times (although not in the last 8 to 10 years) doesn't seem to be a 'sky is falling' event.

The head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is even cautioning alarmists against saying such things.

My local weather reports and national news pretty much assigns the recent heat dome, or what ever it's called this time, to human related climate change. Arguing the points might belike beating a dead horse, but I'd bet this summer made some believers out of fence riders.

[pinkytoe]

Whatever it is, the weather sure seems extreme in so many places the past few years. I agree with Catherine...it is all of the ways we continue to exploit and damage the earth that will affect us (and future generations) now and in the years ahead.

[JaneV2.0]

I am starting to believe the sky is falling. Look at the climate now? It is hard not to think otherwise unless you don't believe in climate change.

This has been the mildest summer here--in years of mild summers--in my memory. I don't doubt there are ongoing climate changes.

[frugal-one]

I think you're talking about weather. The recent heat wave in the South and South/West is still less than it was in the entire decade of the 1930's, with 80% to 90% higher rates of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now. The climate has changed dramatically over eons and what little change we've seen in modern times (although not in the last 8 to 10 years) doesn't seem to be a 'sky is falling' event.

The head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is even cautioning alarmists against saying such things.


No, climate. Just saw a program about the ocean temps rising and have been continuing to do so for many years. Some things are weather but what is happening is climate change. Obviously you are not a believer.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/

[littlebittybobby]

Okay--good for global warming! High latitude la d masses can be used for habitation and food production. Fxxk the Polar Bears and other predators; they are useless and dangerous. See?