View Full Version : So.....who will win?
gimmethesimplelife
9-28-24, 11:38am
Jusr as my thread is titled, who do think will win on November 5th? My take is that it could go either way. Rob
It’s an effing dead heat.
The looming possible east coast/gulf dockworkers’ strike Tuesday could definitely influence things. The union president is very belligerent. They want a 77% wage increase. The east coast union hasn’t gone out since 1977 (unlike the west coast). He told Biden that he (Biden) would regret it if the feds intervened. Effing selfish greedy bastards willing to screw tbings up for a lot of people. This is much different than a strike against a big company ot even the Big Three.
ToomuchStuff
9-28-24, 12:27pm
Duh, the one with the most electoral votes. The other will contest/ask for a recount.
catherine
9-28-24, 12:36pm
Well, we got our ballots in the mail. In Vermont all voters get early ballots. I asked DH, "Do you want the ballots or should we just throw them away because we're going to cancel out each other anyway?" :)
I am sure about who I want to vote for, but I think I'll wait for November 5 because I enjoy the ritual of going to Town Hall and standing in line with all the other civic-minded people.
As far as who will win--it's definitely a crap shoot at this point. It's all up to those swing states.
iris lilies
9-28-24, 12:41pm
Well, we got our ballots in the mail. In Vermont all voters get early ballots. I asked DH, "Do you want the ballots or should we just throw them away because we're going to cancel out each other anyway?" :)
I am sure about who I want to vote for, but I think I'll wait for November 5 because I enjoy the ritual of going to Town Hall and standing in line with all the other civic-minded people.
As far as who will win--it's definitely a crap shoot at this point. It's all up to those swing states.
honestly, people. There are down ballot issues and offices that are important. There’s a whole lot more that goes on in our country in addition to the presidential election.
I was visiting a small town on the other side of our state recently. There were many men driving big pickups with American flags and Trump signs going back and forth honking their horns through town. I had never seen anything like that. One can't underestimate the lock-step support Trump gets from so many especially in rural places like that. I am not going to early vote as I sense a surprise of some sort that may upend things.
A recent Forbes article claimed the bookmakers taking bets are going 51.8% Harris and 47.4% Trump.
honestly, people. There are down ballot issues and offices that are important. There’s a whole lot more that goes on in our country in addition to the presidential election.
You make a good point. Most of the real action in government occurs down ballot. Does it really matter, for instance, that Jill Biden is doing so much of the talking in cabinet meetings? We tend to attribute mystical significance to the presidency, but much of the power of the office derives from Congressional lassitude and the gradual mission creep of administrative agencies. Dubious executive orders aside, what power can a president really exercise over the economy beyond deciding which bill to sign?
Since there seems so little by way of competence and integrity at the top of the two major parties, I think our best hope resides down ballot.
honestly, people. There are down ballot issues and offices that are important. There’s a whole lot more that goes on in our country in addition to the presidential election.
OK, so here is my ballot and this is how I'm voting
6050
President: The Democratic candidate (you will note how many qualified people are on the ballot on VT). Senator: You know it's Bernie. Congresswoman: Becca. Governor: Phil Scott (A very, very well-respected Republican governor. No one wants to run against him he's so good.
I'm sure you guys don't care about the others down-ballot in my state, and I haven't completely made up my mind about most of them. DH was asked to run for Justice of the Peace in our district which made me laugh, but I wish he had, because then he could have married people on his boat. (He has actually already hosted a couple who asked him to marry them but he couldn't so they got a minister instead.)
frugal-one
9-28-24, 6:36pm
I was visiting a small town on the other side of our state recently. There were many men driving big pickups with American flags and Trump signs going back and forth honking their horns through town. I had never seen anything like that. One can't underestimate the lock-step support Trump gets from so many especially in rural places like that. I am not going to early vote as I sense a surprise of some sort that may upend things.
meaning?
iris lilies
9-28-24, 6:37pm
You make a good point. Most of the real action in government occurs down ballot. Does it really matter, for instance, that Jill Biden is doing so much of the talking in cabinet meetings? We tend to attribute mystical significance to the presidency, but much of the power of the office derives from Congressional lassitude and the gradual mission creep of administrative agencies. Dubious executive orders aside, what power can a president really exercise over the economy beyond deciding which bill to sign?
Since there seems so little by way of competence and integrity at the top of the two major parties, I think our best hope resides down ballot.
Oh Lord, is it Jill who is now running cabinet meetings? Does Hunter come, too?
I deliberately stay away from any news about what that old creaky brain addled President of ours is doing, it depresses me too much. Only 3 more months of this bullshit.
frugal-one
9-28-24, 6:39pm
OK, so here is my ballot and this is how I'm voting
6050
President: The Democratic candidate (you will note how many qualified people are on the ballot on VT). Senator: You know it's Bernie. Congresswoman: Becca. Governor: Phil Scott (A very, very well-respected Republican governor. No one wants to run against him he's so good.
I'm sure you guys don't care about the others down-ballot in my state, and I haven't completely made up my mind about most of them. DH was asked to run for Justice of the Peace in our district which made me laugh, but I wish he had, because then he could have married people on his boat. (He has actually already hosted a couple who asked him to marry them but he couldn't so they got a minister instead.)
Just looked at the ballot here and not that many for president ….
Does it really matter, for instance, that Jill Biden is doing so much of the talking in cabinet meetings?
I'm not sure if I understand this. Is it getting at that Jill is running the ship, or at least having a heavy hand in doing so, because of Joe's failing mental condition. I don't totally doubt it, but never heard anything like that, at least substantiated beyond reasonable doubt by observation. Maybe I misunderstood the implication.
I don't know. I was fairly sure of things before Biden stepped down but now I'm not so sure.
I'm not sure if I understand this. Is it getting at that Jill is running the ship, or at least having a heavy hand in doing so, because of Joe's failing mental condition. I don't totally doubt it, but never heard anything like that, at least substantiated beyond reasonable doubt by observation. Maybe I misunderstood the implication.
Politifact indicates this narrative is false. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/21/tweets/jill-biden-joined-a-cabinet-meeting-to-give-a-wome/
Politifact indicates this narrative is false. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/sep/21/tweets/jill-biden-joined-a-cabinet-meeting-to-give-a-wome/
I watched the SNL cold open because I think they are particularly genius in election cycles. This cold open was hilarious.. Maya Rudolph is almost indistinguisable from Kamala, and James Austin Johnson is also incredible at Trump. But I have to say, as great a performance Dana Carvey gave as Biden, I felt his characterization was a bit below the belt, making fun of his "diminished cognitive abilities." I thinnk it's one thing to pan a politician, but making fun of Joe over something he has no control over seemed harsh. But aside from that the sketch didn't disappoint.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg4Z1M_GjhQ
iris lilies
9-29-24, 9:25am
I watched that on YouTube as well. I don’t watch Kamala Harris so I can’t speak to Maya Rudolph’s impression, but what you said is what everyone else is saying in YouTube comments —she’s exactly Kamala. When they brought out Vance they also rolled away the bullet proof shield. That was funny. I was thrilled to see Dana Carvey as Joe Biden because he’s been doing Biden for decades.
yes it sad that Joe Biden is diminished and it’s absolutely more than sad, it’s tragic. It’s tragic for this country. It’s tragic that that old sickly man had the BALLS to think he could work four more years putting himself before our country. He lied when he said he was only going to be in office for four years. Given all that bullshit, I think it’s fine that Dana Carvey mimics exactly what President Biden does.
the moderator was skewered slightly when he admitted his defacto support of the Dems.
I'm not sure if I understand this. Is it getting at that Jill is running the ship, or at least having a heavy hand in doing so, because of Joe's failing mental condition. I don't totally doubt it, but never heard anything like that, at least substantiated beyond reasonable doubt by observation. Maybe I misunderstood the implication.
https://nypost.com/2024/09/20/us-news/jill-biden-leads-one-of-husbands-last-cabinet-meetings-before-hosting-rose-garden-party-without-him/
OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!! JILL BIDEN ATTENDED ONE CABINET MEETING AND TALKED ABOUT WOMEN'S HEALTH RESEARCH!!!!!!
Meanwhile, in realityville Trump is talking about getting California more water from a giant Canadian faucet and fretting about immigrants with weapons more powerful than the military.
https://nypost.com/2024/09/20/us-news/jill-biden-leads-one-of-husbands-last-cabinet-meetings-before-hosting-rose-garden-party-without-him/
I'm not seeing evidence of a mental decline after reading both the NY Post article and the PolitiFact. The Post article is not clearly written by my account.
iris lilies
9-29-24, 6:36pm
OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!! JILL BIDEN ATTENDED ONE CABINET MEETING AND TALKED ABOUT WOMEN'S HEALTH RESEARCH!!!!!!
Meanwhile, in realityville Trump is talking about getting California more water from a giant Canadian faucet and fretting about immigrants with weapons more powerful than the military.
I watched seven minute video of the cabinet meeting and Dr. Jill was speaker for five of those minutes. She was speaking only about her topic, research initiative into women’s health issues. It was a lot of blah blah blah, but was certainly a good summary of what the White House initiative is trying to do.
I don’t understand why she’s giving that summary. Her qualifications are —that she’s a woman? Ok.
In this brief video the President of the United States was apparently his normal self, which is kinda sorta with it, but he talks fast and slurs his words, and he repeated himself a couple times in a very short time, so C+ for his delivery.
I watched seven minute video of the cabinet meeting and Dr. Jill was speaker for five of those minutes. She was speaking only about her topic, research initiative into women’s health issues. It was a lot of blah blah blah, but was certainly a good summary of what the White House initiative is trying to do.
I don’t understand why she’s giving that summary. Her qualifications are —that she’s a woman? Ok.
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And donold trump is a game show host who obviously has rapidly deepening dementia. Remind me again what his qualifications to be president are?
Also maybe remind me why we should care about what the wife of the outgoing president did for a few minutes of one day? Because I just don’t get the f***ing point of the whole reich wing freak out about it. Is that seriously all your team has to talk about at this point? Because frankly it’s as sad and weird as just about everything the republicans are serving up at this point.
iris lilies
9-30-24, 8:54am
I was having deep thinky thoughts in the shower this weekend. And it occurred to me that maybe people in general don’t have a lot of contact with people in their 80s? I have a LOT of friends in their 80s older than Joe Biden. Many. It has to do with being in plant societies and garden clubs made up of mostly old people. Any one of these people Plus my three friends from our old city neighborhood, all older than Joe Biden, are in better shape than our President, cognitively anyway.
hell, Nancy Pelosi elbowed Joe Biden out, and she’s a little old lady older than he is.
and then there is my cousin who is certainly going to be voting the Democratic ticket. Both of his parents died with Parkinson’s disease within the past five years. he said he cannot watch the President, it’s too sad and too reminiscent of his parents’ decline. Biden has physical markers of Parkinson’s disease to his eyes.
My point here is: age 81 doesn’t automatically mean cognitive decline.
But that doesn’t mean I want Presidential candidates in their 80’s, either.
I don't have many associates in their eighties, but many 70 somethings. I'd be confident in saying most of them have some various degrees of memory loss typical of their age. Some are pretty sharp and capable of a lively conversation, but have trouble remembering names, appointments, where they put their keys, and certain past events. I still wonder how much of Joe's speech hesitation is related to his stuttering defect, but some of his memory issues could be normal for his age. Of course the relevance is somewhat mute now.
At my tender young age (ha) I have found myself starting a book that sounds good only to recall I read it a few years ago. But am otherwise extremely astute: )
In Trump's case, his age and memory are compounded by his mental illnesses.
iris lilies
9-30-24, 9:47am
I don't have many associates in their eighties, but many 70 somethings. I'd be confident in saying most of them have some various degrees of memory loss typical of their age. Some are pretty sharp and capable of a lively conversation, but have trouble remembering names, appointments, where they put their keys, and certain past events. I still wonder how much of Joe's speech hesitation is related to his stuttering defect, but some of his memory issues could be normal for his age. Of course the relevance is somewhat mute now.
At my tender young age (ha) I have found myself starting a book that sounds good only to recall I read it a few years ago. But am otherwise extremely astute:)
In Trump's case, his age and memory is compounded by his mental illnesses.
well, yes. This does t mean I actually WANT Presidents in their 80’s, not at all. I was the one who was mad even before Biden’s disastrous debate performance that two old men were running for President of the U.S. For me, Trump’s age is not his main disqualification tho.
well, yes. This does t mean I actually WANT Presidents in their 80’s, not at all. I was the one who was mad even before Biden’s disastrous debate performance that two old men were running for President of the U.S. For me, Trump’s age is not his main disqualification tho.
I agree. I am 72, and I feel like whatever I can do before I'm 80 will be the last of it. I don't know exactly why I have the cut-off of 80, but I do. And I'm still writing reports my clients are happy with, and I'm writing a book, even though it takes me up to 5 minutes to recall the name of actors I've followed for years. I constantly spell-check myself, even though I used to be a very good speller. I used to be great at Jeopardy! but my DIL beats me to the punch every time. I have good genes, and I'm super healthy IMHO, but I don't think I'll even be an effective market researcher by the time I'm 80. No way. No one would be an effective President of the US in their 80s.
iris lilies
9-30-24, 3:26pm
I agree. I am 72, and I feel like whatever I can do before I'm 80 will be the last of it. I don't know exactly why I have the cut-off of 80, but I do. And I'm still writing reports my clients are happy with, and I'm writing a book, even though it takes me up to 5 minutes to recall the name of actors I've followed for years. I constantly spell-check myself, even though I used to be a very good speller. I used to be great at Jeopardy! but my DIL beats me to the punch every time. I have good genes, and I'm super healthy IMHO, but I don't think I'll even be an effective market researcher by the time I'm 80. No way. No one would be an effective President of the US in their 80s.
spellcheck has ruined good spelli g skills.
But yes, cognitive decline sets in. Just the other day I could not for the life of me remember how to spell “BLUE” the color. I kept wanting ro write “blew” and even “bleu” came into my head.
spellcheck has ruined good spelli g skills.
But yes, cognitive decline sets in. Just the other day I could not for the life of me remember how to spell “BLUE” the color. I kept wanting ro write “blew” and even “bleu” came into my head.
That's exactly what I experience. It's diskonserting. (that's a joke).
I am 72, and I feel like whatever I can do before I'm 80 will be the last of it I just turned 70 and am thinking 75 might be the beginning of the end:) The thing about electing old people to run the country is that they are mostly operating on old paradigms/experiences and because of their age, the future will not be theirs to live in. Younger more innovative candidates need to be shaping that world IMO.
Chuck Grassley, the Senator from Iowa is an amazing 91, not to mention the ages of Warren and Bernie. I think some of those life time politicians get into their good old folk groups where they know who to go to in order to get things done, and are into a reciprocal back scratching mutual commensalism. So maybe a few memory lapses can be excused for their experience?
Carter adjusted his ambitions to his age and had meaningful productivity well into his 90's, but didn't hang on to his political career. Although he may have been figuratively black balled from politics after his presidency anyway.
Thank goodness for the digital age to be my memory assistant.
My parents are ~83. Both seem very sharp still, and spend most of their time being active doing community service.
Their mental abilities have *changed* over the past few decades from my observation. Stronger in some areas, weaker in others.
Discussing the "could you be President?" topic with them recently, both agreed that there would be no way they'd want to serve at their age, the energy and stress demands wouldn't be good for them.
At ~60, serving as an elected official for an organization that has a lot of stress and strife and irregular hours, and having decent mental capabilities, I don't believe I would enjoy the presumably-higher levels of this sort of thing the President must have to handle. I'm not sure I'd even be capable of doing a decent job, unless I was very careful about self-care.
Have you noticed how fast new Presidents seem to age once they take office? It's pretty stunning.
I wonder if we could have a cap on how old you can be to run for president the same way there is a minimum age? I would personally like to see 60 as the top limit and cannot serve past 65, sort of like the mandatory retirement of old.
Maybe that's a bad idea, but just as I would not want a 22 year old as president, I would not want someone my age either.
Have you noticed how fast new Presidents seem to age once they take office? It's pretty stunning.
Yeah, I agree! That cortisol spigot must run 24/7 when you're responsible for the entire free world.
Have you noticed how fast new Presidents seem to age once they take office? It's pretty stunning.
Obama sure looks like he has aged, but it's also been a few years under the bridge. Even Trump's hair seems to have shifted from orange to white.
I agree. I could just maybe logic my way through a few problems, but I'm certain I couldn't rouse the energy needed to fill the office or to campaign. At least the Congress people seem to get a few breaks in the action.
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