jp1
11-9-24, 9:43pm
This is probably the best post mortem I've read so far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/opinion/republicans-democrats-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YU4.bMMb.MYLSD9 3omXcK&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
For those who don't know, the concept of "fourth turnings" is that society moves through a cycle of roughly 80-100 year cycles with things happening based on how the current leaders lead and run things, which they do based on what was going on when they were children. A book was written about this back in the 90's. Basically children who lived through a fourth turning, by the time they are middle aged and in charge of society's institutions, lead with integrity and an interest in preserving what exists. Children that grew up after the last fourth turning have no such compunction. Greed and corruption run rampant. Eventually another fourth turning happens because the same basic issues that caused the last one cause the next one. The one constant in fourth turnings is that many of society's institutions get destroyed and replaced by something new. The previous fourth turnings in the US were the revolutionary war, the civil war and the great depression/WW II.
I’ve long thought the current system has failed a lot of average folks. The fact that zero bank execs went broke or to jail after 2008 while millions of average Americans lost their homes made clear that we were in a failed system.
Among all the changes that happen in one the previous fourth turnings have vanquished the previous folks that benefited financially from the existing systems. The British after the revolutionary war. The slave owners after the civil war. The bankers after the Great Depression. This one will be no different.
The one thing that is super scary about fourth turnings is that the end result may not be better than what it replaces. Just look at Russia's past two fourth turnings for cautionary tales. The 1917 revolution resulted in the Soviet Union. The end of the soviet union in the 90's resulted in what they have now where a few oligarchs hoovered up massive assets to become absurdly wealthy and control everything. We could very well end up with a society more resembling the current state of Russia than a renewed FDR New Deal society when all is said and done.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/opinion/republicans-democrats-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YU4.bMMb.MYLSD9 3omXcK&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
For those who don't know, the concept of "fourth turnings" is that society moves through a cycle of roughly 80-100 year cycles with things happening based on how the current leaders lead and run things, which they do based on what was going on when they were children. A book was written about this back in the 90's. Basically children who lived through a fourth turning, by the time they are middle aged and in charge of society's institutions, lead with integrity and an interest in preserving what exists. Children that grew up after the last fourth turning have no such compunction. Greed and corruption run rampant. Eventually another fourth turning happens because the same basic issues that caused the last one cause the next one. The one constant in fourth turnings is that many of society's institutions get destroyed and replaced by something new. The previous fourth turnings in the US were the revolutionary war, the civil war and the great depression/WW II.
I’ve long thought the current system has failed a lot of average folks. The fact that zero bank execs went broke or to jail after 2008 while millions of average Americans lost their homes made clear that we were in a failed system.
Among all the changes that happen in one the previous fourth turnings have vanquished the previous folks that benefited financially from the existing systems. The British after the revolutionary war. The slave owners after the civil war. The bankers after the Great Depression. This one will be no different.
The one thing that is super scary about fourth turnings is that the end result may not be better than what it replaces. Just look at Russia's past two fourth turnings for cautionary tales. The 1917 revolution resulted in the Soviet Union. The end of the soviet union in the 90's resulted in what they have now where a few oligarchs hoovered up massive assets to become absurdly wealthy and control everything. We could very well end up with a society more resembling the current state of Russia than a renewed FDR New Deal society when all is said and done.