View Full Version : Is anyone seeing the economy getting better where they are?
gimmethesimplelife
2-4-12, 10:18am
After yesterday's jobs report, I was just curious if anyone see things getting better where they are? I am here in Phoenix and I understand housing prices here have went up 0.6 of a percent last month - only metro area in the country where they rose. I also have heard that there were two million more passengers passing through the airport here in 2011 than in 2010, and I have indeed been seeing some help wanted signs scattered about here and there. Not exactly like the boom days, but I'll welcome any improvement.......Rob
Not whatsoever. Here in Canada, the jobless rate is WAY up, unemployment at record highs, and the local economy (in our area) is floating in the toilet, yet people continue to spend and borrow like there's no tomorrow.
I saw a little burp in my commissions for 2011 - very little. :( I don't expect we will see much change until after the November elections.
Well if you discount the Super Bowl blip our city is having right at this moment, there are more stores opening up. Simon Mall Group just raised the rent on our local needlework store $1000 a month and told her it was only the beginning of more raises. Nordstrom Rack and The Container Store opened to big fanfare.
Lots of new medical and research buildings and our university sited downtown is growing. Honda plant has increased shifts. City Market remodeled and full of new tenants downtown.
We still have businesses closing as evidenced by the commercial auctions. Business for our friend, a SE mechanical engineer, has increased dramatically this year and he is rehiring some employees. Somewhat boom or bust. There are three new apartment complexes in the middle of building right now. Condos dead but apartments downtown are greatly in demand.
New grocery being built downtown for these new units. Although we hope it doesnt cannibalize the existing one we love.
Life is not this rosey for the smaller cities outside of commute distance to Indy. They usually were manufacturing oriented and that segment is dead. Downtowns in those areas are losing much more than gaining. The difference is dramatic.
Last night's local news story was the release of real estates sales figures that show St. Louis properties had stopped dropping in price and are, in fact, moving up. Property sales have picked up. Interviews with agents and brokers confirmed that.
Personally, I don' want to see a return to the huge boom of 2005 because far too many slap together construction jobs were done on our wonderful Victorian houses. I prefer to see people take their time, work slowly, and do quality work as money allows. It's tough to make money on renovations (new constructions is much easier, fewer unknowns) and so it tends to be those who love historic fabric of our city who move in to do renovations in non-boom times. They have more staying power.
When DH and I first did the basics on this house, we were upside down in value. We had $120,000 in it and could probably get about $105,000 for it. That was decades ago, but that's the kind of return that is more normal, although I'd like to see break-even returns for owner-developers. Right now, at this very moment, my neighborhood has that kind of cache and new construction is going up in several places, but in another few years there will be other neighborhoods that are The Hot Spot and we will be dead here..
Where I am in Manitoba, it seems there's been virtually no downturn at all. Our house prices never fell and are continuing to rise. Apartments and food are just getting more expensive. I haven't heard of any lay-offs - well, at least no more than any year in the last 10. My company just had our best sales month ever. People are still spending like there's no tomorrow, though they say consumer debt is increasing across Canada. We're a very diversified province re: industry and job opportunities and never had a major boom period or crazy house prices, so it's just business as usual here.
The papers continue to show businesses hiring and not going out of business. It definitely is showing improvement here in the midwest.
No. Housing prices are continuing to drop in the Seattle area. According to Zillow, our home value went down another almost 2% in the last 30 days. A report I read online the other day said that housing prices are at their lowest since 2003, and about 30% of homeowners are under water. I am not optimistic about the economy. More problems in Europe, or a spike in oil prices due to problems in the Middle East have the potential to quash the currently tentative recovery.
Yes- our unemployment rate has dropped here in the midwest. It was never as bad as other parts of the country though. Anecdotally, the commuting traffic seems heavier than it did in 2009 or 2010. At least, my commute has gotten about 10-15 min. longer. Also, people I know who have had trouble finding work found jobs in the past year.
Federal Government cuts have only recently begun, and metropolitan Washington is declining now at a pace faster than it did several years ago.
My own view is that suburban houses isolated from jobs, schools, and stores, served only by strip malls several miles away, are suffering from obsolescence rather than a cyclic downturn. The baby boom doesn't want to get old mowing half acre lawns, and people under 30 have no interest in the suburbs they grew up in.
So, recovery may be a very long time coming to the suburbs.
So, recovery may be a very long time coming to the suburbs.
Vive le urban core!
gimmethesimplelife
2-4-12, 11:03pm
Vive le urban core!Gotta say I second that! Rob
I really haven't noticed any great downturn in my area or among acquaintances. I've had a few friends go through unemployment, but have found relatively decent jobs. The local news says that we have typical unemployment rates, so I'm sure there is a part of things I don't see. I do see a lot of smart phones.
Property values have been down modestly for a few years, but were overpriced shortly before that. Home sales are slow, but at least sell within a few months and a couple of run down bank repos close by have been bought by speculators and are being fixed up for resale, which is good for the neighborhood.
If you could take away the portion of the population that are unemployed and a few smaller issues around local infrastructure projects that have been delayed or cancelled, I've not seen a huge impact. As an aside, I'm actually wondering if the economists are wrong and that we are posed for a boom period rather than the predicted slow growth.
AmeliaJane
2-5-12, 10:02am
Texas is in pretty decent shape, but was also one of the areas least hard hit by the recession. State and local govt budgets went through a bad cycle which caused cuts, but it's hard to say how much was the economy and how much was the governor and legislature playing politics, especially since the governor was getting ready to launch his presidential campaign. My area is building and renovating at a healthy rate--I am also urban core, and as commutes get longer and longer to the exurbs, more people are interested in reconsidering the city. I have family and friends in Seattle, and the recovery is definitely slower there...but a relative who has a consulting business is able to do that full-time now where before he needed a half-time contract job to cover expenses. Also, the non-profit sector seems to be doing well in terms of jobs, which is another indicator. Seattle was one of the tightest housing markets in the country before the recession, so I'm not surprised the correction is deeper.
Vive le urban core!
Gotta say I second that! Rob
After 30 years, I'm pretty much over suburban living. It's looking like small to mid-size city urban neighborhood rather than urban core, though.
We're commute bound at the moment as we work 50 miles apart. There aren't many places that both work geographically and are affordable.
EDITED TO ADD: My dissatisfaction may have a lot to do with living in an area where we are dealing with both suburban inconvenience and neighborhood decline. Our neighborhood has the potential for change, so I am not inclined to throw in the towel just yet.
Returning to the economy, expensive energy, generational dissatisfaction with suburbia, difficulty of rehabilitating 50 and 60 year old neighborhoods, and inability to pay middle-class wages for manufacturing/service work due to international competition and immigration all add up to a large drag on the U.S. economy.
My belief is that this is much deeper than a recession.
I just looked over housing start figures for our city (pop. about 280,000). In my thinking that provides a great snapshot of an area's economic activity. In 2003, the high, we had 1,471 starts. Last year, the low, there were 381. The average valuation hit a high in 2007 at $236,000. Last year it was down to $208,000. Our unemployment rate crept up to 5.8%. Better than average, but still high for here. This is a pretty typical city in the fly-over. There was never a great boom cycle ans so we avoided the huge bust. The housing start info was surprisingly bleak, much different than what I was expecting. Talking to a few friends who are real estate brokers tells me there is a hole in the market for new homes in the starter and first move up price ranges. The low interest rates are still moving people into the market. I'm optimistic that we've bounced off the bottom here, but its not a high bounce and I think it is fragile and dependent on national level policy.
San Onofre Guy
2-6-12, 12:36pm
I work in municipal government in Southern California. Personally the economy isn't any better. I am making less money now than I was four years ago. Let me explain. Unlike other employers, in municipal government one does not receive raises based upon ones efforts but rather raises are based upon what the union bargained for. I am in management and even though I have no entity bargaining for me, my raises track the unions. The issue is that four years ago I topped out in my salary range and until the City Council votes to give raises, I get no more, and no there is nothing called a cost of living adjustment. This is compounded on the fact that last year the Council decided to cut my pay rate by 5%. Those in the union saw a ten percent reduction in hours, one furlough day per pay period but only a 5% reduction in pay. My hours actually went up as due to hiring freezes there are fewer people to do the job.
We are in the budget preparation stage at the moment and when I look at tax revenues for the first six months of the fiscal year, the economy has clearly bottomed out. Remember that tax receipts lag the economy. When the economy goes into recession, tax receipts don't drop but lag the economy. The same is true as recovery occurs.
ApatheticNoMore
2-6-12, 2:54pm
Unemployment still over 11% in California (was over 12% though - see recovery :P). I thought traffic might be getting worse (sigh one sure sign of recovery, darn it), but I think that was really just a few bad days of traffic. Things seem the same as they ever were. Maybe the difference between 12% and 11% unemployment really isn't that great, especially as some have just dropped out of the labor market.
Unemployment still over 11% in California (was over 12% though - see recovery :P). Maybe the difference between 12% and 11% unemployment really isn't that great, especially as some have just dropped out of the labor market.
It would appear that 1.2 million dropped out over the last month.
http://www.heritage.org/~/media/InfoGraphics/2012/02/wmunemploymentJAN2012chart2_590.ashx
Simpler at Fifty
2-6-12, 4:35pm
I have noticed more home building going on. More 1200-1400 sq ft homes than mcmansions. (based on lot size and subdivision) Several 16 units apt complexes are being built also. This is usually a sign here that things are picking up. We have had a very mild winter though. so some of that might have been started in a couple months and they got a head start due to the weather.
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