Election day projections

[The Storyteller]

Okay, here are the promised electoral college projections by the main prediction sites. I'm going to keep each one in its own post, the easier to pick at it after the fact. First up is 538.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Projection.

http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1044&d=1352224744

And map.

http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1043&d=1352224743

[The Storyteller]

Princeton Electoral Consortium, run by Sam Wang.

http://election.princeton.edu/

http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1046&d=1352224745

[The Storyteller]

Votamatic.

http://votamatic.org/

http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1045&d=1352224744

[The Storyteller]

Desart and Holbrook Election Forecast

http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/november.html

http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1047&d=1352224745

Now we'll see how they do. Which one is closest, if any.

[Gregg]

Interesting to me that 538 has VA, NV, IA, NC, CO, PA, NH, OH and FL ALL going to Obama. PA is pretty likely correct, but Romney did make a surge there in the last week. But ALL the others? Seems like that prediction is setting itself up for a few misses. Guess we'll know tonight (maybe). I'm not as familiar with the other sites.

[The Storyteller]

Yeah, I'd be shy about predicting FL and VA especially. He actually has NC leaning Romney. But, it's his model that is doing it. He just plugs in the numbers, albeit he does weight them a bit sometimes, I think.

[Bartleby]

Yeah, I'd be shy about predicting FL and VA especially. He actually has NC leaning Romney. But, it's his model that is doing it. He just plugs in the numbers, albeit he does weight them a bit sometimes, I think.

Nate Silver's stock must be soaring. Looks like every one of his predictions came to pass.

[Square Peg]

Yep, what a guy. And what a guy that president is. He took every swing state except NC, and still waiting on FL

[The Storyteller]

Nate Silver's stock must be soaring. Looks like every one of his predictions came to pass.

Revenge of the Nerds.

Nate Silver's projection:
http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1043&d=1352224743

Sam Wang's projection:
http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1046&d=1352224745



Actual electoral map [hint: Florida is going Obama]:


http://www.simplelivingforum.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=1048&d=1352297609

These guys get a lot of grief from the pundit class, but I am going to check their predictions. Wonder how many are going to get even close.

[Gregg]

Revenge of the Nerds.

I love it! And truly an amazing job of number crunching. Sorry I ever doubted your guy Storyteller (I'm conservative, its my job).

[The Storyteller]

This was so much like the film Moneyball it was funny. I have been following these guys for a few weeks, and when I looked at the talking heads who were calling it a tossup, they just looked so dumb. Especially when they started grumbling about the number crunchers like Silver and Wang. There is more to this than numbers! We have experience! We are political experts! Leave the predictions to us. Anybody who thinks this is anything but a 50/50 thing is a total idealogue and should have their keyboard taken away!

Just like the disgruntled scouts in Moneyball. And just like Moneyball, the numbers guy was right and the guys who think with their gut were all wrong.

Silver said one of his goals was to take most of the guesswork out so maybe the media can focus on real issues of the campaign rather than guessing at the horse race.

Good luck with that, Nate.

But here's a prediction... in the future every major media outlet and every serious presidential campaign will have its own Nate Silver or Sam Wang. Just like every major league baseball club has a Jonah Hill character.