Are your local weather people wrong alot of the time?

[CathyA]

Maybe its just climate change, but its almost like the weather people in my area are useless. They predict rain, and we don't get any. They don't predict rain, and we get it. They make us think we're going to get the snow storm of the century, and we get an inch. Then its not supposed to snow much, and we get a foot. its been this way for awhile now. I think it was Al Roker who said that the U.S. is behind in its weather-prediction stuff, and the European model is right alot more times than the U.S. model. So why don't we use theirs?

OTOH........its sort of nice that there's something man can't always predict.

[Jilly]

The weather reports here are spot on. I have no idea why it should be different here, but if the sky is brilliant and they forecast rain for the afternoon, I take my umbrella. They are good with predicting how much snow will arrive, too. If the US is falling behind the rest of the world, maybe the men and women here are savants.

[RosieTR]

Ha ha CathyA, your post made me laugh out loud! Where do you live? I have the "code" figured out for northern CO: a 100% chance of snow + Winter Storm Warning last winter meant an inch. 50-80% and no more than a snow advisory meant ready the snow shovel, set the alarm quite a bit earlier and check the work website before heading out. Worked every time, and I'm not kidding. ;)
Weather people missed several blizzards oh, and the flood. I think we were supposed to have a good chance of rain, but I was quite surprised when I turned on the phone the morning after. You'd think 6-12 inches of rain would have been cause for warnings ahead of time since if we'd gotten that amount of *snow* they would have had their panties in a wad. They did predict today that it would cloud up and start raining in the evening which it has done so booyah to them for today. We will see how the winter plays out but prediction was abysmal last year. For summer they just always say some percentage thunderstorms so we'd get a severe T-storm or flash flood warning on some 20% chance days, and I successfully climbed mountains well into afternoon on some 60% chance days but it was rarely either 0% or 100% so law of odds was at play I guess.

[goldensmom]

Not just local. We had a project planned for last weekend so I was checking NOAA for our area. Within 3 hours the forecast changed 3 times. We've had rain predicted for days at a time and not gotten a drop. The prediction was, of course, 'chance' of rain, so I guess that is accurate in that chance is not certainty. The most certain predictor in our home is the sinus headache I get before it rains.

[razz]

Just recently I read an article by a long-term highly respected meteorologist, a Mr. Chadwick, I believe. He has worked in the field since the 1970's. He reported that the jet stream travelled a fairly predictable pattern of travelling straight for most of his working career until recently when the jet stream is more like a widely meandering stream with erratic stops and starts along the way. This has made weather prediction much more difficult. That is why when we get downpours, they stall or drought that hangs on.
Made sense to me.

[pinkytoe]

Seems like they are about 50 50 on forecasting here. Another example of humans trying to outsmart M. Nature.

[lac]

The only thing certain about the future is uncertainty. They can try to tell us what they think will occur, but nature will act as it wants :).

[JaneV2.0]

Weather reports used to be useless, but with satellites and computers they're getting much more accurate--only occasionally wrong. At least here in the PNW.

[Spartana]

My weather people are always right. But that's only because I'm in SoCal where it is exactly the same temp day after day after day. Occasionally it will change - get hotter or even rain - then they are always wrong :-). They were right this weekend though - predicted hot, dry, and very windy conditions and we got those. Or so I heard as the Barkinator and I vamoosed up the coast before the dreaded Santa Ana's arrived. Just watched the highlights on the weather channel - glad I'm not there!

[CathyA]

I suppose what makes it hard for weather forecasters (at least in my area), is that the weather is so compartmentalized. What I mean is, when a storm comes through, its in certain little round circles scattered over the state. Some people even closer by got almost a flood, and we had a drought.

[SteveinMN]

I've always thought being a weather person is the best job in the world: you can be wrong half the time and still gainfully employed. :D

[Gardenarian]

I find that Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com/) has by far the most accurate forecasts.

[Tussiemussies]

My husband uses Intellicast to see exactly what is overhead. It shows things in different colors which enables you to know if it is fierce or not. My husband calls the storms/clouds -- cells and he can tell exactly what is happening. He is going to teach me how to use it. I really recommend it to know exactly what is going on. I also use The Weather Channel in conjunction with it just to get somewhat of an idea for the coming days.

[Spartana]

I came up to the San Francisco Bay area because it was suppose to be hot all week in SoCal and cool and even rainy here. But instead it's cool and rainy in SoCal and dry and sunny and warm here. Weather people....sigh.... if they weren't so darn good looking I'd say get rid of them all :-)

[RosieTR]

My very favorite was observing a fair bit of snow out the window while simultaneously having the Weather Channel saying current conditions were "partly cloudy". So now I joke about shoveling the partly cloudy off the driveway! This was far and away not the last time something like that occurred. I don't think the prediction is now worse than it used to be here, just more amusing since I' e seen them give exact amounts to a tenth of an inch when they clearly were wrong on even the presence of precip. They used to just issue percent chances and watches or warnings.

OTOH in AZ they were spot on. You'd know a week ahead of time if it was going to rain, and roughly how much. But they would call a tiny cloud off on the horizon in an otherwise cloudless sky "partly cloudy".

[Rogar]

The internet Weather Channel that I check on seems pretty accurate and very useful considering Colorado's changeable weather. The talking heads on the TV tend to over dramatize things and I sometimes wonder if it is part of their routine to generate interest and keep people coming back to their station for updates.

[Spartana]

I don't have cable so get my weather from the local new source - which is so full of hyperbole it's useless. Like Rosie TR, he tiny cloud on the horizon is grounds to issue dire storm warnings and go to DefCon 4 status with endless "storm track" upgrades. But now I'm in a motel room watching "The Weather Channel" and loving it. Don't know how accurate they are since they aren't doing the weather but a show about coast guard rescues in Alaska - all for my viewing pleasure being an ex-coastie :-) !

[RosieTR]

The internet Weather Channel that I check on seems pretty accurate and very useful considering Colorado's changeable weather. The talking heads on the TV tend to over dramatize things and I sometimes wonder if it is part of their routine to generate interest and keep people coming back to their station for updates.

Agreed! I never watch them, but even NOAA and Weather Underground totally biff it on a pretty regular basis. Accuweather (the website) had snow potential down to tenths of an inch based on zip code, which I found hilarious. They were about 6.2 inches short on the particular storm but to think one can predict to a tenth of an inch the snow totals is fantasy. I can well imagine that the intermountain west in general is one of the most difficult to accurately predict, since everywhere else I've lived I've been astounded at the weather prediction accuracy. But they don't seem to be worse or better IMO than they used to be.