The Aging Population

[Gregg]

The link is from NPR and has a set of graphs showing aging populations in the US, Japan and Nigeria. Obviously there are almost infinite political ramifications to discuss, but in my pre-coffee mode I just thought the graphics were cool.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/12/09/247385046/the-global-population-boom-and-bust-in-4-gifs?utm_content=socialflow&utm_campaign=nprfacebook&utm_source=npr&utm_medium=facebook

[jp1]

I agree that the graphics are cool, but in my pre-coffee mode I wish they were a little slower. As I move towards the right end of that graph I have trouble keeping up with the speed of visuals that are put together by the young whippersnappers these days...

[Florence]

That was interesting. And like jp1, I wish I could slow the graphics down even though I am fully caffeinated.

[Gardenarian]

Excellent graphics! Thanks.

[Spartana]

Cool! Besides making me NOT want to live in Nigeria (where I would have been dead long ago) it's interesting to see how different countries age and how they adapt their social structure to the way they age (or maybe it's visa versa). I wonder if the Japanese will need to import immigrant labor to help not only with their regular work force demands, but to supply workers to care for their aging populations.

[jp1]

The other problem with Japan, and other aging population countries (including the US) to a lesser extent, is that most government run old age pensions, including social security, are a situation where current worker payments into the system are used immediately for current retired person benefits. If you have as many retired people as current workers that means that you have to collect enough pension input from one worker to support one retired person. I've read that the US will, at the height of baby boom retirement, be something like 2.5 or so workers per retired person, at least at the current levels of payments into the system and retirement benefits paid out.

[Spartana]

The other problem with Japan, and other aging population countries (including the US) to a lesser extent, is that most government run old age pensions, including social security, are a situation where current worker payments into the system are used immediately for current retired person benefits. If you have as many retired people as current workers that means that you have to collect enough pension input from one worker to support one retired person. I've read that the US will, at the height of baby boom retirement, be something like 2.5 or so workers per retired person, at least at the current levels of payments into the system and retirement benefits paid out.

I've heard that also. Not enough young working people to foot the bill for the oldsters. Many states, including Calif, and government jobs have changed their pension plans to increase both the age of retirement as well as the employees costs to fund their pensions and medical coverage (both during their working years and after they retire). Tacking on 10 years or more before an employee can begin to collect a pension. I know Soc Sec does this to a lessor degree - adding a year or 2 onto the traditional age 65 before you can collect full benefits. Probably won't help much and we will probably end up importing more migrant workers into the country on work programs. I know several countries in Europe did this over the years.

[jp1]

In a paradigm of ever expanding growth, as we're in, you're right, getting more young migrants here to help foot the bill is probably the answer. Another part of the answer would be achieving lower unemployment by actually getting more people on the job as opposed to reducing the supposed number of people in the laborforce. Various tweaks will probably salvage social security because our situation, while bad, isn't super-critical awful bad. Japan, China, Italy, on the other hand are not even close to growing enough young people (Italy is averaging about 1.1 kids per child-rearing-age couple). As their populations age it will be a very dire problem taking care of the retired populations.

[RosieTR]

I remember being in late high school or maybe college and figuring out that I'd probably have a job but also be paying a bunch for Social Security and Medicare that I may not see. I think the Boomer retirement is just starting to hit now, a little later than predicted because of the financial crisis and healthy aging that wasn't predicted 20 years ago.
The graphics are cool, and yes I wish I could slow them a little. Both Nigeria and Japan seem a bit scary in different ways.

[creaker]

I'm surprised the article did not bring up the elephant in the room - China. They will likely be much more impacted due to the one child policy.

[MaryHu]

Wasn't it interesting to watch the baby boom ripple through the US graph like a wave or swell out on the ocean?

[Spartana]

I'm surprised the article did not bring up the elephant in the room - China. They will likely be much more impacted due to the one child policy.

I just heard on the news that they are now allowing 2 children per couple. So that may change things for them down the road. However many Chinese - the more middle class urban dwellers - said that they don't plan to have a second child (even if they have a girl) as they like the financial benefits and lifestyle of having just one child.

I also liked the sped of the graphics and it's wave-like quality. Felt it should have been put to music!

[razz]

I was reading an article about the Chinese one-child policy change and the writer decided that it would make little difference as there had been increasing flexibility about a second child for some time plus the choice to have a better life or another child based on use of resources.

[reader99]

I'm surprised the article did not bring up the elephant in the room - China. They will likely be much more impacted due to the one child policy.

I saw an article recently that indicated China sees that coming. They've already taken the lid off a teeny bit, allowing a second child to couples in which one parent is an only child (used to be both had to be onlies).