The common measure here and I think somewhat universally is positive cases per 100,000 population and new cases. How do you think your theory distorts that number?Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
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The common measure here and I think somewhat universally is positive cases per 100,000 population and new cases. How do you think your theory distorts that number?Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
Looking at test data for colleges and universities where everyone is subject to testing and all results are reported -Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
In my area positivity rates average 1.5% over the course of the semester with 90% vaccination.
Positivity in the community at large is between 4 and 5% with 67% vaccination.
The general population is 75% as vaccinated as the college population. We know vaccination greatly reduces viral load and transmission. So the college population should have a 25% lower transmission rate than the general population, but it is in fact around 300% lower. From this I infer that there are many negative tests in the general population that are not being reported as well as tests not being conducted. If everyone were tested as they are at institutions of higher ed, instead of just people who feel sick or believe they have been exposed, we would see that the concern about supposedly high positivity rates and community spread is not justified.
I randomly checked our county stats in Missouri.
St. Louis city ( it is its own county—weird, I know) has less than 50% of its populace fully vaccinated, meaning both doses. Politically it is screaming neon blue.
Saint Charles county, home of Republican centrists, soccer moms, and middle America and generally maligned by city dwellers to be tight assed conservatives, are well above the 50% mark.
I’m not sure why enlightened people in the city are dragging our vaccination numbers down. Well I could guess but it’s not a popular sentiment.
As I understand the cases per 100,000 population measure, negative tests are not used in the calculation. So with more testing that could reveal more postive cases, the number could actually be under reported.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
Thanks for this, I couldn’t figure out what negative Covid test would have to do with Jeppy’s statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
Also, are they measuring the total population, or the total population of people eligible for vaccination? In other words the under five years old group cannot get vaccinations. Are they counted? Until recently, older youth could not be vaccinated either.
I believe it is for thetotal population. This is what I could find...
"To calculate the daily rate of new infections, we look at the average number of newly confirmed cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 residents. Using the population size in the calculation helps us more easily compare larger and smaller counties. A larger county would be expected to have more cases because of the larger population, but expressing the rate per 100,000 residents enables a more equal analysis.
Due to variations in the availability of testing, test-seeking behavior, local outbreaks, and widespread testing in congregate living settings, these data may not accurately represent true community transmission and should be considered with additional factors affecting the community in consultation with District Public Health, who can provide more guidance about the scenario in your county"
It sounds like some places further break that down by vaccination status. If you can access the NYT, cases per 100,000 in their daily map updates is one of the primary measures to determine hot spots across the US and by county. I assume it is used commonly by local health departments.
I believe you are talking about the incidence rate and I am talking about the test positivity rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
The biggest predictor of whether someone will get a vaccine is age. Older people of all political persuasions are more likely to get vaccinated as they are most at risk. There is also probably no choice in the matter if you are a nursing home resident.Quote:
Originally Posted by iris lilies
In my city the lowest vaccination rates of those 12 and over - who have had access to the vaccine for enough time to get fully vaccinated - is among 20 somethings, followed by thirtysomethings.
I would suspect IL that in a majority minority city the average lower ages of minority groups might play a role - things like lower life expectancy and more minor children per household. But I have not seen any analysis of this, probably because it is not popular to think this way as you note.
My conclusion is that no measure is absolutely perfect., but niether is grossly over or underestimating things. You might differ.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
My state is offering monoclonial antibody clinics for at risk people with mid or moderate symptoms. That's something I don't quite understand yet, but it seems like an underutilized tool.
The Mayo Clinic maintains charts and maps which show the hotspots and trends in COVID cases.
For the USA, the average daily cases per 100,000 population was 36 on 9/27/2021. The data improved to 22 on 10/27/2021. As of 11/25/2021 the data worsened to 29.6
With a couple of clicks on the webpage, you can see a state or territory's hotspots or trends. It looks like the trends are better for Texas (maybe because Texans are outdoors more?) ... and worse for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
If the Omicron variant develops into a "fifth wave" in the US, I would expect the trend graphs will track it.
http://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map
The Omicron virus is a highly evolved variant. It can tell people's nationalities and does not attack US citizens and permanent residents. Therefore they can continue to fly back and forth between here and southern Africa. I think it is overrated because it is also a lazy virus. It was detected a while back but took a long Thanksgiving break to do nothing. Therefore we didn't have to put travel restrictions in place until tomorrow.
What an interesting world some people live in.
Mental health resources for covid issues:
https://mhanational.org/covid19
It seems a Rebublican US Congressman from Texas, Ronny Jackson, has already claimed the Dems will use it as a plan to push for mail in votes in the mid term elections and allow for cheating. Indeed, what an intersting world some live in.
This looks like the same Ronny Jackson who was Trump's physician who added an inch to Trump's height, so that he would be merely overweight and not obese on his BMI (among other things). So not at all surprised he'd be making stuff up.Quote:
It seems a Rebublican US Congressman from Texas, Ronny Jackson, has already claimed the Dems will use it as a plan to push for mail in votes in the mid term elections and allow for cheating. Indeed, what an intersting world some live in.
Put up or shut up. If they have evidence of widespread cheating, they should prove it. So far, nobody has.
Well, all the evidence has been covered up. The very fact that there is no proof, is proof.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaneV2.0
‘“It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.”’
Fixed it for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
Thanks. I be more careful when posting after an afternoon nap.Quote:
Originally Posted by jp1
And the plot continues to thicken....
South Africa is now considering a vacciination mandate. And I called my Cousin Astrid in Vienna who says things have become more tense in Austria. For her personally, things boil down to the "inappropriate and anti-social protests that have happened" - my German was good enough to capture about 70 percent of that but I had her husband (a very well paid air traffic controller at the airport in Vienna who speaks flawless British English) translate for me regardless.
Ummmmm.....as someone who has engaged in protests over the years,
A. I agree with mandates period at this point, and
B. I find characterizing protesting in this case as inappropriate and anti-social quite bizarre.
Of course I did not express this. I think of all the social welfare in Austria that Americans are not worth and I keep my mouth shut due to awe of the better deal Austrians get.
But this time? It.was really.hard to keep my mouth shut - it really was. We are talking about horrific deaths here - not whether or not.protesting mandates is inappropriate/anti-social. Though both my Cousin and her husband are vaccinated. I have to say as far as vaccination I am on the same page as they are - I.just find their take on protesting bizarre. Just pass the damn mandate and get your shots, people. Really, this is not that hard. Rob
The South African doctor who discovered omicron says neither she nor her colleagues have hospitalized a single patient with it. Could this be to delta what cowpox was to smallpox - a milder disease that confers immunity against its virulent relative? If so we should be happy it is spreading around the globe.
I caught a glimpse of certain media’s attempt to minimize this latest Covid iteration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
I take that with a bigger grain of salt than the screaming headlines that greeted us the day after Thanksgiving about the latest horror of Covid known as Omniwhatever.
Both points of view are overstated, and we all will get through it.
It's pretty early to speculate. Today Moderna was saying they could have a vaccine in a hundred days. We may become human pin cushions. Between that, the anti viral pills that are being developed, and monoclonal anti-bodies I doubt that we will go back to ground zero. Third world countries may fair differently.
Public radio had a feature today on the white-tailed deer in Iowa. Something like 80% of them test positive for Covid, but don't seem to show symptoms. That's sort of crazy.
No doubt than the deer frolicking around my yard that I can see any moment have Covid as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
I know that dogs get coronavirus is but I don’t know any study that says it’s COVID-19.
To be more specific, the deer are infected with Covid-19.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...lobal-pandemic
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_he...deer-study.pdf
That is odd. Maybe deer have.a better immune system than humans? Maybe deer have some enyzme or protein that stops them from coming down with symptoms? RobQuote:
Originally Posted by Rogar
Lyme disease is transmitted to humans via deer ticks. I could see new covid variants from deer transmitting to humans in a similar manner.
Covid-19 is here to stay. We need to accept that and get on with our lives instead of thinking if we force people to quarantine and isolate we can control it.
How common is it for respiratory viral infections to be transmitted via subcutaneous blood contamination?Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
Probably a Ph.D. there...
More common than to think that in pretty much every state in the country (as studies in various locations have all found covid in deer) humans are running around kissing deer or singing Christmas carols with them or otherwise swapping air in close spaces. If the deer got it from us, we can get a new variant from them. Remember covid in China reached humans via bats.Quote:
Originally Posted by bae
So your theory is that the deer got it via bloodborne transmission from humans? Fascinating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
Definitely Ph.D. material there. Who knows what people do in the backwoods, after all...
Probably humans to mosquitoes or some other intermediary host to deer.Quote:
Originally Posted by bae
A respiratory virus. Nifty theory...Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
Makes more sense than kissing deer, or deer eating human septage as the New York Times guessed.Quote:
Originally Posted by bae
Maybe there's a phd out there for using infected ticks from deer in place of Covid boosters;)
plus: prevents covid
minus: causes lyme disease
jk
Maybe there's a PhD out there, as there's lots of lies scientists told us. We don't know lots of things but arrogant officials act like they know everything.
For example, remember in spring 2020 they told us you couldn't get re-infected?
Remember you don't need masks, you do, you need two, you don't need any, now you do, only N95, no any mask will do?
Or spray down everything because it transmits on surfaces?
Or wear a mask when walking by yourself in the woods miles from other people?
Or parents should wear masks in their own home around their children even if none of them have been diagnosed with or are quarantining for covid?
Or we can impose curfews because the virus only apparently transmits at night? And it only transmits in restaurants if you're standing up? And it only transmits on aircraft if you are a foreign national?
God.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ApatheticNoMore
I always thought people seemed to order their Corona's with Lyme?:laff:
ROFLOL. Nice one.Quote:
Originally Posted by ToomuchStuff
Re-thought post.