The shooter’s homeland of Senegal is a predominantly Sunni Muslim country. Iran is Shia. There being no love lost between the two sects historically, I’m prepared to believe he was motivated more by mental illness than righteous outrage.
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The town I left behind in New Jersey is very, very diverse--always has been, but the Asian population has been growing steadily--it is now the majority. In our town we have Catholic and mainline Protestant churches, a couple of synagogues, a Hindu temple, a Buddhist temple, and a big, well-attended mosque.
I'm still on the township's email list for police notices, and I got one yesterday for all township residents to exert caution in light of the less-than-benign sentiments that might erupt in violence as an outcome of this war with Iran.
We think we can breathe a sigh of relief because all the action is "over there" but....
So, do we have a concept of a plan here?
I feel we've unleashed hell...and this will end very badly.
Latest news I'm getting is that the most likely successor as leader is the Ayatollah's son. Another religious hardliner. It reminded me of the Who song, meet the new boss, same as the old boss. "We Won't Get Fooled Again"? I saw an interview with the Shah's son who is inexile in the US. He seemed like a very decent man and they implied he might be on the short list as the next leader. That's probably very optimistic. My friend from Iran spoke highly of the Shah and I think he came here to avoid the political turmoil when the Shah was deposed.
The Shah was not a kindly man…
Triggernometry podcast guys had two Middle Eastern experts give a good program about the situation in Iran with some details I didn’t know, but in the overview, I can’t say that any big concepts came up that we don’t already know, and those seem to be:
1. The Khomanei regime was a bunch of bad actors. It’s good they’re gone, both for their own people and the people of the world. Theirs is an ideology that wants to blow up the world as a religious mission. it is a good goal to eliminate their nuclear capability.
2. Their absence doesn’t assure that the next regime will be much better for US and world interests
3. Iran’s neighbors, Muslim countries, dislike the destabilizing activities of Iran and they wanted Iran quashed. Iran funds many of the wars going on in the Middle East
4. Civil War in Iran could result from all of this, devastating for the Iranian people; massive refugee problem could result.
5. Many of the Iranian people and Iranian regions are poor because the country’s leadership spent billions of dollars funding terrorist and proxy wars
6. there’s no way this war will be over in 4 weeks.
These were subtle points i did not know:
*A majority of Iranians do not want the tight religious leadership that kept them constrained for decades; emphasis on this is a MAJORITY
* there is no one monolithic culture in Iran, it is a mix of various cultures, faiths, and tribal alignments. It will be difficult to bring that country together as one
*Many of the Iranian people and Iranian regions are poor because the country’s leadership spent billions of dollars funding terrorists and proxy wars; their economy is poor, inflation is super high
The biggest and scariest idea I came away with is:
* With the toppling of Khomanei, there is no one in charge to negotiate a peace with EVEN IF other factors seem to come into power.
Apparently the Ayatollah Komanei left instructions for each military unit with bombs to make their own decisions as to targets. Same thing with terrorist cells. So, there are dozens of independent military and terrorist units around the shooting off their weapons.