There are no good answers to this pandemic. Various countries have tried various approaches and it seems that the virus is spreading everywhere, in waves.
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There are no good answers to this pandemic. Various countries have tried various approaches and it seems that the virus is spreading everywhere, in waves.
In theory that’s fine. But how many old people either live in nursing or other group senior living facilities staffed by younger people who will be out contracting covid or are dependent on younger people to come help
them with various activities and potentially infect them? A lot. Aiming for herd immunity ignores that and ignores the fact that there will be a lot of middle aged Chris Christie’s that will need several days in limited ICU beds to survive covid. And since we’re nowhere close to herd immunity getting there will be a long ugly slog with a lot of dead people along the way. Especially since a not insignificant chunk of the population still doesn’t take this seriously and won’t do their part by wearing masks and taking other precautions.
Personally I’d prefer a more humane approach. We’re the richest damn country that ever existed. The only reason people are hurting financially is because of the selfishness of Mitch McConnell who thinks this is all a laughing matter and the complicit senate republicans.
In Ann Arbor, U of M students are essentially on lockdown for two weeks, effective immediately. The county realized at least 60% of the cases were from U of M students.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/edu...us/5993741002/
Another problem with herd immunity is that we don’t know how long immunity lasts. Other coronaviruses have immunity that only lasts 1-2 years. So we may never get there without regular vaccinations. Like the flu shot.
Some guy locally has had it twice.
Same strain?Quote:
Originally Posted by Teacher Terry
I've read reports about a couple cases where someone had caught a different/mutated strain.
Have one friend who has been in the hospital on a respirator (CEO of a bank), one of our suppliers tested positive, then two relatives of a coworker (family, an hour away) tested positive and one of them is in the hospital and not expected to make it. It is getting a lot closer.
I don't think anyone could point to a single country where just protecting old people has worked, but I am all ears. Because it's seeming like what part of does not work don't you understand? In theory this and that, got a working model, a single example? Because it seems like everywhere younger people get sick, older people do too. I'll go with a theory without a single working example only if all other options are worse (so yes in a certain doom scenario, running with untested theory may make sense), otherwise where are the examples?
I also find it profoundly inhuman and immoral to not follow a policy of reducing spread so things are safer for everyone, but instead to make old people prisoners indefinitely. Everyone sacrificing indoor restaurants and bars actually is preferable to old people being imprisoned in their houses entirely so we can have restaurants and bars. Of course if we look at the actual victims which aren't just the old, some might find it even more immoral, but it's old people AND it's poor people and minorities. Duh.
Only so many countries are doing great at this. Many are stumbling along. Making things even worse by allowing uncontrolled spread won't improve anything.
In retrospect it's OBVIOUS to me that the U.S. would do badly at Covid, and I'm wondering how clueless were those who predicted otherwise? And how patriarchal? I mean ok Trump doesn't help anything at all, but a fact about the U.S. compared to other developed countries is vastly more women in the U.S. die in childbirth than in other developed countries (California is an exception). A country that can not save the lives of women in their prime like it's developed peers do, is maybe not going to be stellar at dealing with a pandemic. That more than some high tech we might have should maybe have been the symbol how competent we are at healthcare and how we would cope.
That is why people should assess their risks and act accordingly. Live with elderly people? Do your schooling remotely, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tammy
I am staying away from my parents, only visiting outdoors 10+ feet apart. Do I like not having hugged them since early March? No, of course not, but family gatherings are now acknowledged as a major transmission route, other ways being cut off through lockdowns. I didn't need this week's news to tell me that though. It's common sense which is why I have been doing it all along. Living in a cold climate Thanksgiving and Christmas with them will be out this year too.
If only the slogan ‘die for the Dow’ had proven more popular we’d be over this pandemic by now. Sure, lots of old people and minorities would be dead, but we could paint it as a heroic, patriotic thing. Maybe build a monument to their lost lives on Wall Street where all their loved ones could go to remember them and think ‘grandpa sacrificed everything so that I could go out to my favorite bar.’
The problems with attempting to get herd immunity, spelled out in a succinct article.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/o...-immunity.html
My awesome math skills helped me calculate the corollary that 58% of US Covid deaths are not in nursing homes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
4.5% of older adults live in nursing homes and 2% in assisted living facilities. Source: NIH
Yet these facilities account for 42% of covid deaths.
From this I glean that:
Mortality rates correlate highly with age. The cases of younger people dying that some folks trot out to stir up paranoia are blue moons.
Congregate living or otherwise being around other people is deadly for older folks during this pandemic. They may not like to stay home for months at a time but for their own safety they should.
There are people who want to keep smoking. They will find cases of smokers who lived into their 90's. They will find cases of nonsmokers who died of lung cancer. This does not change the facts, that smoking causes lung cancer.
Similarly, age is a risk factor for covid. It's a fact and our response to the virus should take age into effect. It's not ageism anymore than banning travel from hotspot countries is xenophobia, though certain left wing loonies argue otherwise.
FYI
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens...t-it-1.5767967
Eight months after the start of the global pandemic, Sweden is changing its COVID-19 strategy — but virologist Dr. Lena Einhorn says it's far too little, too late.
Last spring, as other countries went into lockdown, Swedish citizens were mostly living as usual. The government issued advice and guidance in place of rules and restrictions. School and work went ahead. Many businesses stayed open.
But as of Monday, Sweden's per capita death rate from COVID-19 was the 15th highest in the world, or 13th if you exclude the tiny countries of Andorra and San Marino, according to data from Time magazine and Johns Hopkins University.
Now Sweden is shifting its policy. According to the Telegraph, starting Monday, the government has empowered regional health authorities — in consultation with the federal public health agency — to instruct citizens to stay away from crowded spaces like shopping malls, museum, gyms, and concerts, and avoid taking public transport or visiting the elderly. However, there will be no legal or financial consequences for non-compliance.
Einhorn, a virologist, author and filmmaker in Sweden, is one dozens of medical experts who have been critical of the country's COVID-19 response from the start. Here is part of her conversation with As It Happens host Carol Off.
Is the Swedish government finally willing to admit that its approach to tackling COVID-19 has failed?
I haven't seen any such signs, no.
Do you think they'll just continue as they are?
There have been incremental changes in the recommendations. There has never been, and I doubt there ever will be, any kind of admission of having made mistakes.
If you were to describe Sweden's approach to tackling the coronavirus, what words would you use?
Stubborn is probably the best word I can come up with.
When they started, their initial assumptions were fair. They assumed that this would be like SARS; it would never sort of be a major problem in Sweden or outside of Southeast Asia. They were convinced it's only spread from symptomatic people, so like SARS, you could isolate the symptomatic people and stop the spread that way.
That was fair, you know, sometime in January. It was not fair in April or in May. So they stuck to that. And one could say that when the spread really … hit Europe and Sweden, they did the opposite of our Scandinavian and Nordic neighbours who went into lockdown, and we did not.
There was an idea that we heard from coming from Sweden in the spring, and I guess it continued, that Sweden would attempt something called "herd immunity," that if enough people were to contract the virus, that eventually there would be a general immunity enough within the population that it would have a better effect than locking things down and keeping people from getting it. Is that what happened?
It has been assumed that they were going for herd immunity, but they've been speaking through two sides of their mouths. On the one hand, they've been denying it. On the others, on the other hand, they said it would be a bonus.
They said that come fall, and the second wave, we will be much better protected than our Scandinavian neighbours who had 10 times less deaths than we did in relation to population. But it became very clear once broad testing of antibodies was being done that there was nothing close to herd immunity.
And so, of course, they realize that they can't go for herd immunity. It's going to kill too many people. I mean, it's already killed almost 6,000 people in a population of 10 million. So they are no longer going for herd immunity, which doesn't mean that they're prepared to say, "we were wrong and we're going to change our recommendations."
And what do you think of Anders Tegnel?
I have no opinions about him personally, but I think he has not handled this well and he keeps on not handling this well.
Just as an example, Sweden is [one of the only countries], together with Somalia, Yemen, Eritrea, Syria, Greenland and some Pacific islands, who have still no recommendations for face masks whatsoever. So, you know, he hates face masks. He says they don't help. He keeps saying there's no support for them.
In the spring, that could have been a fair assumption. But by now, there's the studies are overwhelmingly showing the benefit of face masks, especially when it's used in the whole population, because it protects against someone who is sick.
So if everybody wears it, face masks are extremely efficient. But if only 50 per cent wear it, it's not at all sufficient. But he will not even say that they're good. I mean, you have to understand, in the Swedish hospitals, the doctors and nurses do not wear face masks.
Well, it seems that [U.S. President] Donald Trump and the people around him would agree with Anders Tegnel. But the rest of the world, at least in countries where they have policies, they are not doing that. So somebody is right and somebody is wrong.
The interesting thing is that in Sweden, we have a social democratic government dominated by the Social Democrats, so … it's more of a left-wing policy. Whereas in the rest of the world, it's very much a right-wing laissez faire policy to have herd immunity, or to try to have herd immunity, or to not wear face masks. Freedom, you know?
There was a freedom of information [request, and] a bunch of emails that have been published by journalists in your country that show that Mr. Tegnel said that at one point that when it was suggested that 10 per cent of those who would get the disease would be the elderly and maybe they would die, 10 per cent might be "worth it," he apparently said. How much of the decisions are being driven by this idea that, well, maybe we have to keep Sweden moving, keeping the businesses open, and that's part of the motivation?
They will never admit that the economy is an aspect. By the way, Sweden's economy has not fared any better than its Nordic neighbours. Rather, it's more at the bottom than at the top among our neighbours. So it hasn't benefited from it, and it has certainly not benefited from the herd immunity.
Today we saw the announcement that citizens in Sweden should avoid places like shopping malls, museums, gyms, concerts, and avoid public transportation or visiting the elderly. So is there a shift perhaps in perception?
There are policies. You know, it's not a completely laissez faire. I mean, people are advised to stay to work from home if they can. People are advised to not fill up the public transportation, the busses and the subways. There is still a maximum amount of people gathering of 50.
It's not a complete "let's live as normal" — but it's all recommendations and advice.
I would say that incrementally, Sweden has has gotten closer to other countries. I mean, we do a lot of testing now. We do, you know, about as much as Canada per capita. So it's not like in the spring, where nobody was tested outside of the hospital.
But it still is always too little.
I believe the U.S. is higher though.Quote:
But as of Monday, Sweden's per capita death rate from COVID-19 was the 15th highest in the world, or 13th if you exclude the tiny countries of Andorra and San Marino, according to data from Time magazine and Johns Hopkins University.
It's what has never made sense in the "be like Sweden" thing, we already have more deaths per capita in the U.S., possibly more cases, does anyone think we would have less deaths and cases of covid if we had even less restrictions? And we're on a 3rd wave. If Sweden somehow does better there, it's not because of some kind of generic "herd immunity". So credit whatever you want if you think Sweden did better, but Sweden's lax policy isn't it.
I don’t know if the local guy had different strains. So we are in placerville, California for 3 days which is a rural area staying on a farm in a separate guest house. The owner said all their guests wear masks and the locals don’t and this is Trump country. Don’t know how she knew we weren’t Trump people and felt safe enough to share. My husband told her we are a divided house but he does cross party lines and votes for the person. He told her it’s inconceivable that anyone would vote for him now that we know who he is. She told us that 2?restaurants had their licenses taken away by the state but the sheriff wouldn’t enforce it so they kept open. Some restaurants have signs saying no masks she said. We are eating at outside ones and won’t eat anywhere with those signs. Because we have a kitchen we will only eat out once a day.
Actually I wish you were so you would quit being so cavalier.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yppej
That's a little harsh. There's a significant number of people who believe that it is their responsibility to do the right thing, and a seemingly higher number of people who believe that the government must force their responsibilities onto others. You can often tell them apart by their political affiliation, but not always. I don't think believing one way or the other makes you cavalier.Quote:
Originally Posted by frugal-one
Read highlighted above. What you stated is not what I was referring to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan
Covid is so boring I figured I would try for some online companionship, but I didn't want to put my picture online. However, to respond to messages it is required. So I found the biggest mask I have and took my picture with it on, problem solved.
I got a message from some guy that masks are disgusting and trap bacteria under them and why would I put a diaper on my face. I didn't think that was a good way to start things out so I blocked him.
This morning I saw on BBC News that the second wave in Europe has as many or more cases but fewer deaths. To me this makes sense as the most vulnerable died in the first wave. If we don't get a cure or vaccine and suffer from continuous waves for years, barring a mutation to a more dangerous form of the virus I think its lethality will go lower and lower, and projections of deaths based on the first wave are exaggerated.
And with enough spread, we might be able to nearly eliminate diabetes from the population!
Haha! Black humor necessary these days.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicken lady
Good one CL! All the old people dying will also save SS!
And old age will be a thing of the past!Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicken lady
And bigots will welcome a reduction in the POC population.Quote:
Originally Posted by bae
And kiss fat people goodbye.
And liberals will rejoice in the reduction of Republicans, because only dead Democrats vote. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by JaneV2.0
what... moronicQuote:
Originally Posted by Alan
Sadly, we are seeing a not insignificant number of people who develop diabetes after covid. Didn’t have it prior.
Well crap, Tammy ruined my snark. That sucks.
Sorry. 😞
It’s good to have you back. Hang in there.
Bitter pill to swallow... My county has had its first COVID-19 fatality. In my state, the death count is 1,778.
All the numbers seem to say we are still getting sicker.
Personally, I believe our only hope lies in splendid isolation. In the fullness of time there likely will be a vaccine. But until then, we will not be congregating for any cause, however worthy!
King County has recorded 789 deaths, for a death rate of 3% among infected individuals. Most of us are taking it seriously here, even as the federal government has lost interest. I'm laying in supplies--and Kindle books--and am fully prepared for the long haul.Quote:
Originally Posted by dado potato
I was shocked to get invited to do a set of in-person interviews in a market research facility in 2-3 weeks. 10 nurses, 5 doctors. It would be in Boston or NJ. I usually have a very difficult time saying no to projects, but a) I like being sequestered in Vermont during this, and b) DH has some compromising health conditions. Yes, I could get tested when I got back, but why even go through the hassle??
I'm going to say no, and it's it's going to kill me to turn down money.
Suburban Cook County (the county where Chicago is located) - where I live - has now banned indoor dining at restaurants beginning Wednesday. I had a friend who wanted to meet for dinner, but thankfully, her schedule kept getting in the way.
I noticed through an online NJ community forum that the Regal Cinemas that was about 5 minutes from our NJ house has closed. I never even thought about movie theatres! Who would go to the movies these days? Never mind how vulnerable they were before COVID because of the streaming culture these days. I'd be really sad to have that industry go down. It's always kind of fun to go out for a movie experience.
Our local movie theatre tried opening with proper spacing but had to close due to lack of response. Yesterday, they offered a special movie that you had to register to attend. The first viewing of 40 people was committed with second time scheduled for taking registrations. I was tempted but opted not to go. I wonder how many actually showed up.
Can you offer to do it virtually? I can't imagine why it has to be in person.Quote:
Originally Posted by catherine
I can offer, but I'm sure they specifically want in person and eventually if they can't get anyone to travel, they'll probably have to be satisfied with telephone interviews or video interviews. I just flew it by my husband and he is not comfortable with me doing it at all, so that seals the deal for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaneV2.0
I talked to my friend in Westfield today and she said the high school there is closed now, and so are the schools in Boston. They had been open, now closed. So I think you are wise not to go.Quote:
Originally Posted by catherine