Unemployment to stay high until 2017

So apparently the Obama administration has said that nationwide unemployment will not return to 6% until 2017. Wow. (remember when even 6% was considered kinda high, yea I guess we're well into the new normal). But the shocking part is not the 6% which isn't that bad really, but the 2017!!! Wow more than 5 years to go in a recession we're already 2-3 years into (yea the economists say it's not a recession, why it's a jobless recovery!). Making what, near a decade of recession maybe? Great depression like in length then if not in intensity. Who knows how many years unemployment it will stay as high as it is now.

This can not help but have an effect on the psychology of the nation. How exactly I can't say. It's not necessarily positive. It might just lead to the ghettoization of the unemployed where everyone else goes on with their life as if nothing has changed, whereas many who manage to fall into unemployment join the permanent underclass. It could make people even more competitive and stresed out because afterall the dog eat dog world has now become wolf eat wolf in the level of carnage. I don't actually think a brutal economy is particularly helpful to the better attributes of people, I think even non-material values tend to flourish better in abundance. I don't have a fix for it of course. Yea yea if only leader x was in charge instead everything would be wonderful. I don't believe it. Any leader who was radical enough to have a plausible plan for this type of crisis would never get elected.

I think any of this talk about future years is just a way of telling us something really simple. "This is the new reality and get used to it because it is staying." How far would this comment make it in the media? So they come up with all kinds of future "assumptions" and give the media something more benign to report.

Our president has little effect on the actual workings of any plan. Right now the Dems and Reps cannot get their act together because it seems they all are only interested in their party and the coming election and "what looks good" than any sacrifice and restructuring of programs, etc.

The post WWII economy is finally over - actually it was over years ago, but we delayed the end through debt and bubbles. Now I think we are (not so) boldly going where we've never gone before.

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Originally Posted by ApatheticNoMore

So apparently the Obama administration has said that nationwide unemployment will not return to 6% until 2017. Wow. (remember when even 6% was considered kinda high, yea I guess we're well into the new normal). But the shocking part is not the 6% which isn't that bad really, but the 2017!!! Wow more than 5 years to go in a recession we're already 2-3 years into (yea the economists say it's not a recession, why it's a jobless recovery!). Making what, near a decade of recession maybe? Great depression like in length then if not in intensity. Who knows how many years unemployment it will stay as high as it is now.

This can not help but have an effect on the psychology of the nation. How exactly I can't say. It's not necessarily positive. It might just lead to the ghettoization of the unemployed where everyone else goes on with their life as if nothing has changed, whereas many who manage to fall into unemployment join the permanent underclass. It could make people even more competitive and stresed out because afterall the dog eat dog world has now become wolf eat wolf in the level of carnage. I don't actually think a brutal economy is particularly helpful to the better attributes of people, I think even non-material values tend to flourish better in abundance. I don't have a fix for it of course. Yea yea if only leader x was in charge instead everything would be wonderful. I don't believe it. Any leader who was radical enough to have a plausible plan for this type of crisis would never get elected.

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I have been unemployed since November, and this is my second time to be without a job. I was out of work for almost a year in 2009. Whether we like it or not (and no one likes it) its how it is. To paint a rosy picture isnt going to help. As they say, it is what it is. I think people will have to help each other and our way of living is radically changing. How it will end up (in our lifetime) I have no idea. I fear for my children and grandchildren. I have heard all kinds of critical comments from people, some implying I havent looked hard enough, some saying "oh take a waitress or McDonalds job" (they are not hiring either) and I find that those with jobs seldom understand the struggle. I dont see it improving because there are no jobs and I dont think any are going to materialize overnight no matter who gets elected. So i am brainstorming different ways to live. And still looking......

I think it has been interesting to see how folks assume the government can end high unemployment. There are obviously things that can be done to help, but it's not like we live in a socialist or communist country where the government owns or heavily controls businesses. I think in a free economy there are certain things that just have to work themselves out in the private sector...on top of help from the government.

In my humble opinion, we've basically lost much our middle class through automation and outsourcing overseas. Somehow we have to figure out how to retool and train our work force for the jobs of the future and try to bring overseas production back home. The QE1s, 2s, and maybe 3s plus all of the fed actions only shotgunned the issue rather than focusing on the lower and middle class unemployed.

I think about how the pressure put on the auto industry through the bailouts has turned them around, but it took putting them in a retooling half nelson. How much of the stimulus money went to reduce the escalating costs of higher education or other education. The stats show that people with a college education are typically more employable. If I recall correctly, college grads have a 5% unemployment rate and those without a high school degree are 14% unemployed.

Sure, the post WWII boom has had something to do with a gradual decline. But there was also somethings special about the ambition and work ethics of the WWII generation that has declined. Not to say that there aren't many skilled and ambitious unemployed that try very hard, but on a whole. I worked in a manufacturing plant until a couple of years ago. In my last few years of work it was getting harder and harder to find reliable people to do hard and dirty work, sometimes on off-shifts. There were opportunities for advancement and good career jobs, but many people would work for a few months, enough to get a little spending money and pay a few bills, and leave.

Sorry if that is a slight non-specific rant.

I personally think that the economic situation that we now find ourselves is in line with our current expectations these days. Things will not continue like they are but I don't think that is a desirable anyway.

It probably won't happen but there is a possibility that we will learn to live within our means to the extent that any downturn in our economy will not dramatically affect our lives. That means having an emergency fund, savings, and a lifestyle that is far below your means. Simplicity is the biggest high on the planet. Once you accept the basic principles of no debt, good food, good friends, and good weed then the rest is a piece of cake.

Enjoy every minute because time goes very fast.:)

Peace

Yeah Zigman, at one time I thought about buying a nice street vendor cart and selling some sort of special food or beverage. Meet some interesting people and low key. It's a free country with a lot of choices and opportunities.

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Originally Posted by Zigzagman

I personally think that the economic situation that we now find ourselves is in line with our current expectations these days. Things will not continue like they are but I don't think that is a desirable anyway.

It probably won't happen but there is a possibility that we will learn to live within our means to the extent that any downturn in our economy will not dramatically affect our lives. That means having an emergency fund, savings, and a lifestyle that is far below your means. Simplicity is the biggest high on the planet. Once you accept the basic principles of no debt, good food, good friends, and good weed then the rest is a piece of cake.

Enjoy every minute because time goes very fast.:)


Peace

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But how do you get an emergency fund and savings? With a job.

I feel so bad for those who are willing to work and cannot find a job. Any job. I cannot imagine how disheartening it must be to just want to work and support your family.

We did not downsize after our kids left because I want them to know if things get bad they can always come home and bring their spouses/children. It won't be easy for anyone, but it is an option. We are the last resort, but their will be a roof over your head, food on the table and heat in the winter. unfortunately many who are in a bad position don't have a supportive family or a plan b or c to revert to.

Poetry_writer, i agree so much with you. So much of what we hear about financial security, such as having an emergency fund, contributing to a 401K etc. all depends on having a good income to go along with it. And social security and medicare are on the chopping block. Prepare to work until you are pushing up daisies.

Apatheticnomore, who has come up to serious challenge Obama? Bachmann? she scares me to death with her anti-social security, abortion, Christian approach. Perry maybe?Palin?

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Originally Posted by poetry_writer

But how do you get an emergency fund and savings? With a job.

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+ 1

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Things will not continue like they are but I don't think that is a desirable anyway.

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agreed but ....

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It probably won't happen but there is a possibility that we will learn to live within our means to the extent that any downturn in our economy will not dramatically affect our lives. That means having an emergency fund, savings, and a lifestyle that is far below your means.

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Ok, so suppose you have an emergency fund and savings. There is no doubt that it is much more comforting to have these things than not, before and after unemployment. However, these don't last forever (and if you have enough to last you the rest of your life, what are you doing working anyway? :)). In the long run for most people jobs are needed. Furthermore it is worse than this, how do employers look at the long term unemployed? There are plenty of rumors that employers just don't want to hire them period.

Say everyone's income was reduced by 30%, then some people are on the edge and would not be able to handle it, but many would adjust, lower their expectations, conserve more, spend less, and realistically probably reduce their savings as well. But unemployment is not like that, it can reduce an unemployed persons income entirely. Suppose everyone has their turn at the wheel of unemployment, their time to be unemployed in the grand scheme of things. A time to sow, a time to reap, and a time to work, a time to be unemployed, turn, turn, turn ..... Well ok that is how it often works, but it is still very hard psychologically, but it might work out ok. My concern is the long term unemployed and if they will get their turn to be on top again (even just a relative top, having *a* job).