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Thread: Conavirus......

  1. #3441
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    What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.

  2. #3442
    Simpleton Alan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.
    I don't think there's any real consensus on that, especially if you're looking at number of infections or deaths. From everything I've read it appears we'll reach herd immunity when somewhere between 60 to 85% of the population have either been immunized or developed natural antibodies through prior infection, and I haven't seen percentages anywhere which take naturally developed antibodies into account.

    When I hear people talk about daily or weekly infection or death rates I wonder how that compares to pre-Covid numbers for infection or death by other types of virus that Covid has now apparently usurped. I haven't been able to find that type of comparison anywhere so I think quoting numbers without comparison doesn't really tell us much.
    "Things should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler." ~ Albert Einstein

  3. #3443
    Senior Member Yppej's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.
    I'm sure different people measure it different ways. But case numbers are not the most reliable indicator.

    1) There are many people now self-testing at home and those numbers are not reported, and are largely negative.
    2) There are false positives.
    3) There are people who may test positive but are asymptomatic, with no impact from the virus.

    Better indicators are numbers of hospitalizations, patients in the ICU, and deaths, though death numbers have been manipulated, at least in my state, to inflate the numbers. For instance, I believe I have posted before about a coworker whose father died of old age and the medical examiner was forced to change the cause of death to covid because there were covid cases in his assisted living facility. He did not die of this, but because of this false label even the immediate family was not allowed to attend the burial in the VA cemetery. There has been lots of paranoia and false information out regarding this virus.

  4. #3444
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan View Post
    I don't think there's any real consensus on that, especially if you're looking at number of infections or deaths. From everything I've read it appears we'll reach herd immunity when somewhere between 60 to 85% of the population have either been immunized or developed natural antibodies through prior infection, and I haven't seen percentages anywhere which take naturally developed antibodies into account.

    When I hear people talk about daily or weekly infection or death rates I wonder how that compares to pre-Covid numbers for infection or death by other types of virus that Covid has now apparently usurped. I haven't been able to find that type of comparison anywhere so I think quoting numbers without comparison doesn't really tell us much.

    CDC data is super easy to find.

    CDC 2020.jpg

  5. #3445
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    We’ll only know what constitutes herd immunity with hindsight. My guess though is that a state with just over 1% of the US population having almost 500 cases per day is not herd immunity. If it does that would mean that the US as a whole would average over 47,000 cases per day or 17 million per year indefinitely. Compared to other diseases that doesn’t sound like herd immunity. In the US Polio dropped from 35,000 cases in 1953 to 5600 by 1957 to 161 by 1961 thanks to widespread vaccinations. Measles, when a major vaccine push happened in the late 70’s dropped 80% between 1981 and 1982. Cutting cases of covid from roundly 36 million per year to 17 million per year would not seem to be indicative of herd immunity.

  6. #3446
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    It is difficult to know for sure because of differences by state as far as mitigation measures go but strictly by the number of cases California would seem to be closer to herd immunity than CT with a seven day average of 1,878 cases for a population ten times CT’s. As would Alabama with a 7 day average of 342 cases and 5 million population. As well as a variety of other states.

  7. #3447
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    So herd immunity would be the point at which a sufficient percentage of the population has natural or vaccinated immunity that the aggregate likelihood of the disease being transmitted from one person to the other declines to some very low probability?

  8. #3448
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    I heard a story on NPR about a person who died because she refused to get the vaccine. The reporter described covid as now being a preventable illness. I think that is true in the US.

    Meanwhile I checked in with a guy I used to work with who has family in India. He told me the outbreak should peak there this month. So that is the natural immunity route.

    You would think people would choose the vaccine route but if they don't that's on them and the rest of us shouldn't be restricted for years or decades until all of them who are vulnerable die off.

  9. #3449
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    So herd immunity would be the point at which a sufficient percentage of the population has natural or vaccinated immunity that the aggregate likelihood of the disease being transmitted from one person to the other declines to some very low probability?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity?wprov=sfti1

  10. #3450
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    My state has now reached the 70% herd immunity level but we are still stuck wearing masks - except of course the governor, who even indoors removes his so he looks better at his news conferences. And I've noticed there's no plexiglass in front of his mouth either. I reported him for violating covid guidelines but I have not received a response.

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