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Thread: Conavirus......

  1. #3291
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LDAHL View Post
    People keep pushing that scolding narrative, but are those states substantially worse off in real-world numbers than the ones who imposed more draconian lockdowns?
    Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents

    Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents

    Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.

    King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.

    If you really want to see what it looks like if no safety measures were taken pick a state like Kansas and look at most of the small county numbers. Gove county, population 2600 had 22 deaths for an eye popping 8,321 death rate per million.

  2. #3292
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    Quote Originally Posted by jp1 View Post
    Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents

    Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents

    Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.

    King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.

    If you really want to see what it looks like if no safety measures were taken pick a state like Kansas and look at most of the small county numbers. Gove county, population 2600 had 22 deaths for an eye popping 8,321 death rate per million.
    I find it fascinating that doubters never do their own research, they just doubt. Very kind of you to find data that you've reviewed before to show that you aren't just talking off the cuff. 'Tis getting very old.

  3. #3293
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    Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents

    Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents

    Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.

    King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.
    Los Angeles county, 2,334 deaths per million. Wow does that surpass Maimi dade? Of course it does. MASSIVE FAIL.

    But team red and team blue frontal lobotomy, pick a cherry, is it a red cherry or a blue cherry? Governor Newsom FAILED, our local leaders FAILED, and ultimately because of that the hospital system FAILED. And I don't care if they all lose their jobs because of it, heads gotta roll. Noone responsible should be in office.
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

  4. #3294
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    In order of increasing deaths:
    San Francisco county - 588 deaths per million (per capital income 139-140k)
    King county Washington - 657 deaths per million (per capita income 94-95k)
    Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents (per capita income 62-63k)
    Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million (per capita income 54k)
    Los Angeles country - 2,334 deaths per million (per capita income 65k)

    No I am not doing cost of living adjustments, too much work . And yea, yea correlation, only a few examples, maybe should be a median, blah blah, this is post big deal. But still think it's about red states and blue states? S-o-c-i-a-l D-e-t-e-r-m-i-n-a-n-t-s o-f H-e-a-l-t-h. Of course policy also helps but that too probably flows from wealth. But with conditions of poverty hard hits many places could be predicted, and they did nothing to stop it either.

    There may be other factors, noone really knows what all them are now though. Either way our politicians failed as hospitals became overwhelmed.
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

  5. #3295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gardnr View Post
    I find it fascinating that doubters never do their own research, they just doubt. Very kind of you to find data that you've reviewed before to show that you aren't just talking off the cuff. 'Tis getting very old.
    I think that's called cherry picking data, not terribly helpful but interesting none-the-less.
    "Things should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler." ~ Albert Einstein

  6. #3296
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    My point wasnít red state blue state but that doing lockdowns and people actually following them work. Which was what a previous poster had doubted. Ohio is a red governor state but theyíve done comparatively well overall because the governor took the pandemic seriously. Or at least had earlier. Not sure about their current status.

  7. #3297
    Simpleton Alan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jp1 View Post
    My point wasn’t red state blue state but that doing lockdowns and people actually following them work.
    As part of just today's discussion on the topic it was pointed out that Texas and Florida were vying for the worst possible response to the pandemic, both states having been endlessly excoriated in the greater discussion by people who like to say things like "freedumb" when mentioning them. Another poster asked if those states were worse off than others and you chose to reply using cherry picked county stats to imply that 'yes they are'.

    Of course the problem is that they are not. As of this very moment, Florida and California are statistically tied in deaths per 100,000 while the difference between those states and Texas is close enough to be a rounding error. And, it would appear that they're doing much better than approximately half of the other states.

    Here's a link to current covid deaths per 100,000 for all 50 states and DC for anyone interested. • U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

    It's interesting to note that any particular state's lockdown status seems to have little effect on the numbers. I suspect it has more to do with population density, access to health care and other local factors, but that's just speculation on my part.
    "Things should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler." ~ Albert Einstein

  8. #3298
    Senior Member iris lilies's Avatar
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    I agree that County stats are not useful if weíre talking about states.


    But if weíre looking at death rates, donít you have to look at age of the population as well? Are there a lot of old people in Florida? Arent there the fewer per capital old people in California?

    Once again, statewide mandates donít necessarily mean a lot. Cities and counties can be restrictive as they are in my state with the state itself is not restrictive. We can let local government manage this. No itís a different question as *IF* they manage it.

    The sneering and shaming óitís just as effective as you all have told me for years it is. I thought we didnít shame people? I thought shaming was not conducive to good human relations? Iím confused.

  9. #3299
    Senior Member jp1's Avatar
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    I guess at the end of the day we can bicker over whether red states or blue states did better at keeping people alive or we could bicker over what actions by governmental entities and individuals actually worked to keep people safe. There's enough evidence out there to indicate that things like mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering, regardless of where, worked if people actually followed them. Some places the government did the right thing, some places they didn't. Some places people actually follow the guidelines/mandates, and some places people haven't. Arbitrarily deciding that only whole state statistics matter is silliness that just ignores the reality that in the end people doing the right things is all that mattered. The government dictates mattered not much if people didn't follow them. And wouldn't have been necessary if people would've done the right thing if told what it was regardless of whether the government ordered it.

    The thing that has been so dispiriting about this pandemic is the realization that there are a lot of people in this country who simply aren't willing to make any sort of sacrifice to their lifestyle in order to reduce the spread of a pandemic that has now killed more than half a million americans. So maybe it's not "yay freedumb". Maybe more accurately it's "yay selfishness!" And that comes from both sides of the political aisle. Only one dresses it up in the cloak of freedumb but plenty of people from both are behaving just as abhorrently.

  10. #3300
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    There's enough evidence out there to indicate that things like mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering, regardless of where, worked if people actually followed them.
    this seems fallacious,maybe no true scottsman. So the counter argument would be "mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering (to the extent done in the U.S. which I think was woefully insufficient) didn't always work, see x, y, z". And then this could always be countered "but there was a mandate but it wasn't followed". I mean is there any way the argument doesn't become a closed one that could not possibly be disproved by any possible evidence because every counter example is met with "but it wasn't followed"?

    Mind you as a factual matter, I don't even believe it was all caused by "but it wasn't followed" anyway. It was to a large part driven by crowded living conditions and workers working essential jobs, at least as much as it ever was due to "bad people doing things they shouldn't". But sure since there was no real enforcement attempted, other countries had stricter enforcement but the U.S. never did, people breaking rules will always exist to some degree, if they didn't want it, maybe there should have been some enforcement.

    I don't really blame the pandemic on the people's of this country by and large. I think that's a dishonest deflection those with actual power use to deflect their share of responsibility. It's straight up manipulation so that they never have to be held accountable for their actions.

    I blame it on leaders, structural factors, and a certain amount of dumb bad luck perhaps. Polls often showed the majority wanted things not to be opened up so quickly in the spring, people were very cooperative then. It wasn't the majority of the people who wanted what happened, but government leaders made their choices driven by policy in D.C., driven by economic worries etc.. Certain things like masks became bizarrely politicized (in part due to Trump sure), but there was nothing all that inevitable in that either, it's just how it unfolded. The public health authorities gave bad advice after bad advice (never emphasized the difference between indoor and outdoor). They were objectively bad. As people we trudge along anyway maybe we know the difference between indoor and outdoor, maybe we don't, but many people tried to do the best they could, despite government failing almost utterly. All we ever got from them who had the actual power to have clear public communication and didn't and to close things down and didn't in time, was shaming, never a single thank you to all those doing what they understood, when powerful people's decisions on putting business first overwhelmed the hospitals.
    If you want something to get done, ask a busy person. If you want them to have a nervous breakdown that is.

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