The Current Situation

[bae]

How are you managing through the Current Situation?

There is a lot of uncertainty, and huge volatility in the markets. Tariff/trade wars. Possibilities of war. Yada yada yada.

How do you maintain your Simple Life investing strategy during this time, and hedge against this level of uncertainty?

[bae]

My steps so far:

-I have 50%+ of my assets overseas now, in non-USD accounts
- I have three different housing solutions overseas, UK, Ireland, Thailand.
- I have reduced discretionary spending to zero
- I am prepared to flee my US location on 15 minutes notice, and can be in London in 12 hours
- I am aggressively hedging spreads on the VIX to preserve my US assets
- I have 3 different visa solutions
- My mid-80s parents are moving to places where they will be safe and have better access to reliable medical care
- I am moving to liquidate the family compound the parents live on ASAP after they have no use of it, and turning the revenue from the property sale into tangible precious metals
- I can get by in many languages. French, German, Spanish, Italian, Norwegian, Icelandic, Japanese, Greek, Latin, Pitkern, Klallam, Lummi, Welsh, Irish. I'm working on Pirahã but it seems of limited utility.

I am incredibly risk-averse.

[sweetana3]

We will stay in place. Currently in an urban area walkable to almost everything.
No debt and already have a significant cash position.
Monthly expenses already extremely low.

Looking forward does not give us a comfortable feeling and there will be so many that are going to hurt.

[catherine]

I have always had a suspicion that you, bae, having had Friends In High Places, have had more insight about the political climate than you are willing to disclose, but your radical efforts to protect yourself and your family suggests that something out there truly is worth all the effort.

As for me, my mantra is something like "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"--financially speaking. I have very little in the stock market. I did have some money in it until 2008 wiped me out. So I have a fraction of what I did have. If those few bucks evaporate, well, BTDT. I actually did consider pulling it out, but not now that it's down so far, that's for sure.

But I am cutting discretionary spending, like you. I have not considered exUS getaways. I am only 20 miles from the Canadian border, so if things got really bad the family could do a Sound of Music coda and make a break for it there, but frankly, it's very unlikely.

I have considered going darker on the internet, using proton mail and VPN, but am not completely there yet.

That's basically it, other than opening the news and doing a "read it and weep" loop.

[Tybee]

All I have done so far is to change my allocation so that I only have about 20% in stocks. I have looked into how to open a bank account in Canada, but that's as far as I have gotten. Am feeling really paralyzed right now.

[happystuff]

I think I'm more like sweetana3 and catherine at this point. Still looking for a place to downsize to that won't take us further away from family and our family/friends support system. No debt - so far, and trying to cut all spending. If we have to, we can stay in place and work to stay in this house. While not my first choice, it would be doable.

[Tradd]

I have both IRA and 401K in target date funds. Current stock allocation is about 65%. I need to see about moving some of that out. I’m just going between work, church, and home. Diving will just be locally. Any vacations I’d been considering are cancelled. I buy a few books but that’s it other than the essentials. Pretty much stocked up like I was during Covid. I’ve got a good support system at my church. Rent is dirt cheap and landlord has said it will remain cheap. I have a new car loan from last summer. Plugging away at it with regular payments. Throwing all cash in savings.

[Rogar]

How do you maintain your Simple Life investing strategy during this time, and hedge against this level of uncertainty?

I have always been a very risk averse person with finances and have a relatively small percent of savings invested in equities. Probably something like 100 minus my age, which is a conservative number most advisers I've run across who are too young to remember the financial crisis of 2007 say is a missed opportunity. That said, the traditionally safe havens have lost some of their safety. There has been talk of the FDIC being eliminated or absorbed by the Treasury Dept., which I find very disturbing. I have no investments overseas and assume the US economy is still the gold standard for a prospering nation, and how the US goes, so goes the world.

As long as medical services remain available and affordable through insurances, Medicare, etc. I think my personal risk is low, based on a strong nest egg, conservative savings, and a simple life style. However it's not a zero risk and greater that a year ago when we had a strong economy and low inflation. I have larger concerns for the US and global economy. Until more dire indicators show up, I'm am not in the recession camp quite yet, but more like an economic slow down.

From a political aspect, Americans can pollute to an embarrassing degree, hire and fire many, ignore decaying infrastructure, and cut back on government cervices, but once things start hitting peoples wallets in terms of inflation on consumables and energy and the stock market starts to fail, they will demand changes.

I have a vegetable garden and can bicycle most places I need to be if necessary.

In the case of a global or civil war, all bets ore off. I have some ammunition and will keep the frig stocked with beer.

[Tradd]

I have always had a suspicion that you, bae, having had Friends In High Places, have had more insight about the political climate than you are willing to disclose, but your radical efforts to protect yourself and your family suggests that something out there truly is worth all the effort.

As for me, my mantra is something like "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"--financially speaking. I have very little in the stock market. I did have some money in it until 2008 wiped me out. So I have a fraction of what I did have. If those few bucks evaporate, well, BTDT. I actually did consider pulling it out, but not now that it's down so far, that's for sure.

But I am cutting discretionary spending, like you. I have not considered exUS getaways. I am only 20 miles from the Canadian border, so if things got really bad the family could do a Sound of Music coda and make a break for it there, but frankly, it's very unlikely.

I have considered going darker on the internet, using proton mail and VPN, but am not completely there yet.

That's basically it, other than opening the news and doing a "read it and weep" loop.

Move any non-email communication to Signal.

[flowerseverywhere]

Your post threw me off, Bae, as you are not one to be rash or panic. My first thought was why would anyone leave your isolated paradise? But I’m not paying much attention trying to keep my sanity. Besides more complete preps as prices rise, unemployment rises and social safety nets are cut. Going to be a lot of people hurting in a big way.

sounds like you have great options. Also, there are quite a few countries that will put you on a path to citizenship if you invest enough money in an approved investment.

i can’t conceive of a scenario where we would get up and move at our advanced age. I’m hoping you can elaborate on what types of scenarios that could possibly make you leave.its really a big deal to leave your country.