Dateline Moscow.....

[gimmethesimplelife]

I'm losing hope in diplomacy quickly ending the war in Ukraine. Astrid sent me an email to the effect that the new Austrian Chancellor's talks with Putin did not go well/yielded no results. I was hoping against hope that some kind of at least tentative ceasefire could be achieved.

It seems unbelievable to me that I may just end out providing refuge for my relatives should Putin go further West with his carnage. I realize such may not be likely - but did anyone a year ago.think this was going to.happen? Rob

[bae]

I suspect that any Russian peace talks at this point are just cover for regrouping and redeployment of resources, and are not honest discussions in any way.

[Yppej]

He will not go to Austria. The Russians will get bogged down in Ukraine the same way they did in Afghanistan.

[gimmethesimplelife]

He will not go to Austria. The Russians will get bogged down in Ukraine the same way they did in Afghanistan.I will try to keep hope that Austria will not become involved. Austria has taken a neutral stance so maybe my family and.friends will be safe. Great.

That said about Austria, I want Putin's goons out of Ukraine, too. I see your point about Russia in Afghanistan - I'd love for Russian forces to be bogged down as you say and then totally 86'ed from Ukraine. Rob

[gimmethesimplelife]

I suspect that any Russian peace talks at this point are just cover for regrouping and redeployment of resources, and are not honest discussions in any way.I suspect you are dead on here. bae. The Austrian media has cast these talks as a total waste of time (other than having Austria appear in a humanitarian role on the world stage). Rob

[LDAHL]

Austria is a fairly negligible force as world powers go, so it is hardly surprising that the Chancellor’s trip would fall into the empty political stunt category.

I don’t think you need to worry about a violent return of the Warsaw Pact anytime soon. The Russians clearly lack the capacity or credibility they enjoyed in the forties and fifties, when there were still plenty of true believers in the Communist project and the Red Army could think of themselves as crusaders for a cause. I think stumbling into the use of theater nuclear forces is a pretty remote possibility, as is a generalized European conventional war.

I do think there will be continuing impacts to the financial markets, as well as disruptions in the energy and agricultural commodities markets for some time to come. But to me, the likeliest outcome will be for Putin to pull back and annex a few more bites of Ukraine, tell the world he has defeated the Nazis, and declare victory, perhaps even gaining enough concessions to effectively Finlandize what’s left. He’s done it before.

[JaneV2.0]

From what I've been reading, Russia has been in a downward spiral for some time--ignoring its infrastructure to build up its energy sector.. John McCain characterized it as "a gas station masquerading as a country."

[ApatheticNoMore]

From what I've been reading, Russia has been in a downward spiral for some time--ignoring its infrastructure to build up its energy sector.. John McCain characterized it as "a gas station masquerading as a country."

That's the U.S. Are their bridges collapsing? LOL, maybe they are, for sure ours are. An infrastructure bill was passed I guess. Who does serious infrastructure investment? China, of course.

As for the gas station, yes it's an exporter, I don't think it's more of one than the U.S. though.

[JaneV2.0]

That's the U.S. Are their bridges collapsing? LOL, maybe they are, for sure ours are. An infrastructure bill was passed I guess. Who does serious infrastructure investment? China, of course.

As for the gas station, yes it's an exporter, I don't think it's more of one than the U.S. though.

Yeah--I thought of the irony as I was typing that out, but Russia has also not invested in more basics--like education, medical supplies. public health measures (it's estimated 25% of the population has markers for multiple drug resistant TB) as well. And it's clear their army is not well-trained or well-armed.

[ApatheticNoMore]

So it seems the u.s. is actually the biggest "petroleum liquids" and crude oil producer in the world. But it's a big country? Well yes, so is Russia. So a gas station masquerading as a country, though I've always preferred "a corporation pretending to be a country" for the u.s.. And you wonder why we don't' deal with climate change. It's always blamed on consumption, like Americans like to drive large gas vehicles, and sure it doesn't help, but the reason we don't deal with it is probably production.

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/worlds-top-oil-producers/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/oil-production-by-country

[JaneV2.0]

"A corporation pretending to be a country" is certainly apt--you'll get no argument from me on that. It's always about the mythical shareholder. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky there's profit involved in medicine and education here. And so far, we don't have our own version of Putin, though one could argue we came close.

[gimmethesimplelife]

Austria is a fairly negligible force as world powers go, so it is hardly surprising that the Chancellor’s trip would fall into the empty political stunt category.

I don’t think you need to worry about a violent return of the Warsaw Pact anytime soon. The Russians clearly lack the capacity or credibility they enjoyed in the forties and fifties, when there were still plenty of true believers in the Communist project and the Red Army could think of themselves as crusaders for a cause. I think stumbling into the use of theater nuclear forces is a pretty remote possibility, as is a generalized European conventional war.

I do think there will be continuing impacts to the financial markets, as well as disruptions in the energy and agricultural commodities markets for some time to come. But to me, the likeliest outcome will be for Putin to pull back and annex a few more bites of Ukraine, tell the world he has defeated the Nazis, and declare victory, perhaps even gaining enough concessions to effectively Finlandize what’s left. He’s done it before.Finlandize? I've been jeaious of Finns and their country for years. I should be so lucky to be Finlandized. Rob

[gimmethesimplelife]

Alan - I don't know how the above happened but could you delete it? Thanks. Rob

[LDAHL]

Finlandize? I've been jeaious of Finns and their country for years. I should be so lucky to be Finlandized. Rob

I don’t think that word means what you think it does.