I think it's increasingly random in terms of where it strikes the hardest. Vermont was extremely low in cases and deaths until the last few months. Even my rural county has spiked. Then you hear Florida and Texas bragging about how little they pay heed to safety measures and frankly, they're not dong all that bad--I think Florida is roughly in the middle of # of cases/deaths.

I'm not in favor of thumbing my nose at fate, however. I believe in masks and social distancing, but I think the patterns we've seen recently defy any "formula" for safety. Maybe these states with moderate numbers of cases despite no care in the world for masking are lying about their numbers, but I doubt it.