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Thread: Anyone here skeptical of the unemployment numbers just released?

  1. #31
    Senior Member dmc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iris lily View Post
    DH called me this morning to say "Obama has the election sewn up" when he heard the loudly trumpeted improvement in joblessness rate. We've been comparing notes on mainstream media's drumbeat of economic improvement in this, the countdown to the Presidential election. Every couple of days, it is "good news" (but how that's deficit working for you Barack?)

    The loud promotion of news that teenage motherhood is at an all time low ( I posted an article about it on another thread) is part of the MSM show. This teenage mom study was release way last February. I heard about it on two MSM outlet this week, 8 months after the fact. MSM is scrambling to get positive news out there, and this sociology study will make people happy.
    Not much talk about the loss of household income, higher insurance cost, more on food stamps, the increase of people signing up for disability from SS, and the debt that is unsubstainable. Nope, happy day's are here.

  2. #32
    Senior Member Rogar's Avatar
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    I would imagine that toying with employment data by the Obama staff, if discovered, could pretty much end his career in politics. But regardless, one data point does not a trend make. The fact is that we suffered through a major recession and recovery has been very slow. I would actually be more interested in a number that includes those who are long term unemployed and have stopped looking for work. And as a more abstract number, skilled people who have taken low paying jobs in the food and health service industry.

    Fact is we missed having a depression by a hair. Whether Obama saved us by pulling us from the brink of disaster, or whether he has been ineffective in a faster recovery is not going to be answered by a single employment figure.

  3. #33
    Senior Member gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar View Post
    I would imagine that toying with employment data by the Obama staff, if discovered, could pretty much end his career in politics. But regardless, one data point does not a trend make. The fact is that we suffered through a major recession and recovery has been very slow. I would actually be more interested in a number that includes those who are long term unemployed and have stopped looking for work. And as a more abstract number, skilled people who have taken low paying jobs in the food and health service industry.

    Fact is we missed having a depression by a hair. Whether Obama saved us by pulling us from the brink of disaster, or whether he has been ineffective in a faster recovery is not going to be answered by a single employment figure.
    I think you are right - toying with the numbers, if discovered, would end Obama's career in politics, and now that I think about it, there are probably some kind of safeguards in place to ensure accuracy of the information. There seems to be some question as to what information gets included and what does not BUT I remember complaints of this when I graduated college into the recession of 1990 - 1991. I also think you are right that we missed a depression by a hair, and I personally am glad it was Obama at the Helm and not McCain.....imagine the more widespread suffering without unemployment insurance extensions and that I've got mine, you go starve kind of mentality from the what I call the hardcore right - though I will say not each and every person on the right is like that, I have certainly met some who are not. At any rate, great post! Rob

  4. #34
    Senior Member gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lhamo View Post
    This recent podcast from Planet Money goes into some depth in examining the security measures that exist to ensure the integrity of the jobs figures and prevent them from being released early. I would imagine that any monkeying with the data would be trackable (and tracked):

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/...he-u-s-economy

    lhamo

    (This is linked in in the snippet redfox posted above, but thought worth pointing out separately).
    Thanks Llamo! Rob

  5. #35
    Senior Member gimmethesimplelife's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dmc View Post
    Maybe that explains the 8% drop in household income since Obama took office. Way to go Barry, it only took you 44 months to get those job numbers slightly below 8%. Even after spending trillions and driving the debt up.
    I won't deny you have a point about household income for the majority dropping, I know mine sure has. I would even venture to guess that with so many jobs offshored so that the upper strata can make money, there will probably be more drops coming, and that who gets into office does not matter, it's going to happen anyhow the way things are set up now. My question however is about the debt being driven up by all the Obama government spending - was there any alternative to avoid a depression? Honestly? If you have a way around that one that does not involve large amounts of spending, I'm all ears......Seriously. I would rather the debt be much less myself. Rob

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmethesimplelife View Post
    I won't deny you have a point about household income for the majority dropping, I know mine sure has. I would even venture to guess that with so many jobs offshored so that the upper strata can make money, there will probably be more drops coming, and that who gets into office does not matter, it's going to happen anyhow the way things are set up now. My question however is about the debt being driven up by all the Obama government spending - was there any alternative to avoid a depression? Honestly? If you have a way around that one that does not involve large amounts of spending, I'm all ears......Seriously. I would rather the debt be much less myself. Rob
    I think we went over the fiscal cliff a while back, we're just in free fall waiting for the crash. Balance the budget - imagine removing a trillion dollars from the economy in one year. I really think we've hit a point where we can't go back without "breaking" the system.

  7. #37
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    They should probably just let the fiscal cliff hit. As far as deficit reduction measures go it's ... fair and balanced? Really though it requires cuts to both defense and social program AND tax hikes. It is a far more balanced measure than you are going to get from most politicians after they've sold you down the river (and they will). And it doesn't much touch Social Security.

    Thus any agreement worked out by politicians is likely to be *WORSE* than the fiscal cliff. Any agreement probably won't touch defense (you might upset Lockhead! You see how much they dislike that). Any agreement worked out by politicians probably WILL go after Social Security. And they probably won't be able to raise any taxes. We will be sold an EVEN WORSE plan out of fear of the fiscal cliff.

    Of course the whole fiscal cliff is unnecessary in the first place, of course why are we cutting social programs when we're still drone bombing and in declared wars with half the world - if we're broke shouldn't we pull out of the empire business, of course why were additional silly tax measures only recently passed when they are only making things worse (the payroll tax cut). Still that doesn't mean if we have to drink poison that the fiscal cliff measures aren't far preferably than the "compromises" (ie everything their donors want, nothing for the majority, all the time) the politicians will give us.
    Trees don't grow on money

  8. #38
    Senior Member bae's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ApatheticNoMore View Post
    A Bunch Of Very Sensible Stuff.
    Indeed so!

  9. #39
    Senior Member freein05's Avatar
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    The decrease in wages may be caused by market forces. Supply and demand. With the number of unemployed employers can pay almost what they want. As the unemployed decreases the rate of pay will go up or should go up.

  10. #40
    Senior Member bae's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by freein05 View Post
    The decrease in wages may be caused by market forces. Supply and demand. With the number of unemployed employers can pay almost what they want. As the unemployed decreases the rate of pay will go up or should go up.
    Given how many nations around the world are busily developing their economies these days, given how many educated willing workers they have that now directly compete with our workers, given how easy it is to move goods and capital around the world, why exactly do we expect USA unemployment to go down? Supply-and-demand, as you say.

    I suspect quite a few of the "lost" jobs don't exist anymore in this country, and never will again.

    So if you were keen on lifelong career in buggy-whip manufacturing, it might be time for some rethinking.

    Personally, I think the best way out of this mess is to pay a lot more attention to our basic infrastructure, so our citizens can create jobs for today's world: education, transportation, communication, ... Maybe one of the Presidential candidates would be so bold as to offer up a way of doing that, perhaps by cutting 1/2 the military budget and spending it on schools, roads, railways, ports, telecommunications, hospitals, energy production, ...

    I have a dream.

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