I just finished making the statistical model our County will use for figuring out what to do.
I used as much information on infection rates and such as was available as of Sunday evening.
Basic top-level takeaways:
- One week after an initial infection appears in your community, things really speed up. The inflection point is at about day 5/6.
- About 2 weeks after the initial infection appears, assuming things go as they did in China, infections will have reached about 90% of their peak.
- People who get the "just a cold"-level infection take about 2 weeks to be happy again.
- People who get the "super bad flu or worse" infection take 3-6 weeks to be happy again, assuming they live.
Conclusion: 2 months' supply of toilet paper, bacon, and coffee should do you just fine.