Operation Epic Fury

[Rogar]

The Shah was not a kindly man…

There are two sides to his legacy, but he could be viewed in relative terms to the Ayatollah as kindly.

[Rogar]

Triggernometry podcast guys had two Middle Eastern experts give a good program about the situation in Iran with some details I didn’t know, but in the overview, I can’t say that any big concepts came up that we don’t already know, and those seem to be:


These were subtle points i did not know:


*A majority of Iranians do not want the tight religious leadership that kept them constrained for decades; emphasis on this is a MAJORITY

* there is no one monolithic culture in Iran, it is a mix of various cultures, faiths, and tribal alignments. It will be difficult to bring that country together as one

*Many of the Iranian people and Iranian regions are poor because the country’s leadership spent billions of dollars funding terrorists and proxy wars; their economy is poor, inflation is super high

The biggest and scariest idea I came away with is:

* With the toppling of Khomanei, there is no one in charge to negotiate a peace with EVEN IF other factors seem to come into power.

Apparently the Ayatollah Komanei left instructions for each military unit with bombs to make their own decisions as to targets. Same thing with terrorist cells. So, there are dozens of independent military and terrorist units around the shooting off their weapons.

I think they would call the situation "fluid", but what I've heard is that the Royal Guard is still very strong and probably loyal. Possibly as many as a million strong? The ugly scene I've heard described is the majority tries to rise up and take control and the Royal Guard responds with some sort of civil war or slaughter. They are certainly better armed. I think trump was figuring once the Ayatollah was gone, they would flip. That's a mighty high gamble. It doesn't sound like they will have a free election where the majority would rule.

I expect the scope of what the administration here considers who are suspect terrorists will expand.

[Rogar]

I see where the CIA has been covertly arming and training American friendly Kurdish forces in northern Iran.

[rosarugosa]

Rogar: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss," ran though my head as well.

[LDAHL]

I wouldn’t consider it totally tragic to see a situation analogous to Libya after we toppled the regime. Multiple competing factions harmful mostly to one another.

[frugal-one]

Kristi Noem fired!

[KayLR]

Kristi Noem fired!

There are apparently a lot of things DJT will tolerate, but not being made to look bad.

[flowerseverywhere]

Where will the refugees go? There are over 100 million people forcibly displaced in the world. The US refugee program is on hold per executive order.

[Rogar]

There are apparently a lot of things DJT will tolerate, but not being made to look bad.

Yes, that was an interesting account of events.

Krugman's latest substack claims that the US is running out of the expensive Patriot missiles and has learning and operate to build the much cheaper interceptor drones ..from the Ukraine.

News today is saying Cuba is next. That would be a nice reward for all of Marco's hard work. I've noticed Hegseth has a remote resemblance to the host of Wheel of Fortune?

[catherine]

YI've noticed Hegseth has a remote resemblance to the host of Wheel of Fortune?

Oh, I wouldn't insult Seacrest with that comparison. I just finished reading an Atlantic article, "Pete Hegseth's Troubled Soul," which encapsulated exactly what I think about that man.

AMERICA’S “SECRETARY OF WAR” doesn’t approach matters of war and peace, of life and death, with even the slightest bit of reverence or humility. All of his instincts are toward aggression; he appears to relish the destruction and death that he can now unleash.

We need people in government and in the military who can lead the nation to victory in times of war, but that is quite different than having people in leadership who indulge in bloodlust or who are wrestling with inner demons.

Dwight D. Eisenhower was the supreme commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force in World War II. Having seen the violence of war, he had a great aversion to it. He was deeply moved by the sacrifices of soldiers, whom he cared for and loved. Eisenhower had a profound understanding of the human cost of conflict; as president, he exercised immense caution in using military force.

“I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can,” Eisenhower said, “only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity.”

What can you say about a Secretary of "Defense" who loves war?

Fie on Goodness, fie!
Ah, but to burn a little town or slay a dozen men
Anything to laugh again

https://www.allmusicals.com/lyrics/c...ongoodness.htm


You probably won't be able to read the article behind a paywall but here it is..
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...s-iran/686260/