Conavirus......

[SteveinMN]

I've been wondering how commercial TV will fare. About half of the commercials are for businesses that are closed.

That's part of the long tail I mentioned in one thread or another here (maybe "Boy that Dow"). There are going to be ripples from this pandemic which will be felt several levels removed from the actual medical issue and the slump in the world market indexes. People without money won't be buying goods or experiences. Expect that the cruise industry will come back minus a few brand names people recognize now. Some near-luxury branded goods won't be seen again in stores. Many restaurants and bars and hair salons will close for not having enough funds to continue paying the bills until business comes back. Many boutiques and specialty stores (cosmetics, fancy pet food, etc.) are going to take a hit, in some cases fatal. And then there will be the ancillary businesses, like ad agencies, travel consultants, and freelance video producers, that suffer for lack of money floating around.

I wrote in the Boy that Dow thread that I expect the market to come back relatively quickly. I still do; market averages are not the entire economy. But this pandemic is going to leave a sizable mark on lots of people who don't suffer more than a cough for a few days.

[Rogar]

That's part of the long tail I mentioned in one thread or another here (maybe "Boy that Dow"). There are going to be ripples from this pandemic which will be felt several levels removed from the actual medical issue and the slump in the world market indexes. People without money won't be buying goods or experiences. Expect that the cruise industry will come back minus a few brand names people recognize now. Some near-luxury branded goods won't be seen again in stores. Many restaurants and bars and hair salons will close for not having enough funds to continue paying the bills until business comes back. Many boutiques and specialty stores (cosmetics, fancy pet food, etc.) are going to take a hit, in some cases fatal. And then there will be the ancillary businesses, like ad agencies, travel consultants, and freelance video producers, that suffer for lack of money floating around.

I wrote in the Boy that Dow thread that I expect the market to come back relatively quickly. I still do; market averages are not the entire economy. But this pandemic is going to leave a sizable mark on lots of people who don't suffer more than a cough for a few days.

I was thinking that suddenly Yang's guaranteed income makes better sense. There will be small or maybe big businesses that are not going to weather through this and will be out of business, whether it's short lived or long term closures. The governments fiscal stimulus is unlikely to affect a lot of businesses and the $1000. checks we've been promised are just a short term band aid or feel good money. I had a college friend in the financial business who was caught up in the 2007 meltdown and for a time was living out of his car and doing night time janitor work. I don't know if any predictions of unemployment are reliable right now, but people in certain previously gainful professions are going to be hitting the food banks and shelters.

I have some money in municipal bonds and have even wondered if some of these might default in places where local resources are strained are unprepared.

[rosarugosa]

I did a curbside pickup at my local wild bird store yesterday. The owner is a great guy, and he's running a one-man show right now with a really good strategy for making sales with no real risks to himself or his customers. If I'm going to be spending more time at home, I can't have empty bird feeders, so I did a substantial stock-up order.

[LDAHL]

Our city has shut down access to most public buildings and mass transit. Our public library has started a curbside pickup service.

[Geila]

I went grocery shopping this morning just to see how things were and buy some meat for the freezer if available. Pleasantly surprised that the store had everything I needed, including lots of fresh veggies and fruit so I loaded up on those. Bought some pork for the freezer and a few other things. They still had some toilet paper and paper towels, not much, but some and they are restricting quantities. I didn't need any so left them for others. They are well stocked on eggs, milk, chicken, etc. Plenty of staples on the shelves: crackers, tortillas, rice, beans, even some bread. And they had plenty of fresh-baked bread as well as their rotisserie chicken.

Everyone was pleasant and we even exchanged a few jokes amongst our fellow shoppers and staff, who were busy stocking the shelves and produce.

Traffic was light on the street and the weirdest thing was seeing the mall parking lot completely empty.

We should be good for the next few weeks.

[LDAHL]

That's part of the long tail I mentioned in one thread or another here (maybe "Boy that Dow"). There are going to be ripples from this pandemic which will be felt several levels removed from the actual medical issue and the slump in the world market indexes. People without money won't be buying goods or experiences. Expect that the cruise industry will come back minus a few brand names people recognize now. Some near-luxury branded goods won't be seen again in stores. Many restaurants and bars and hair salons will close for not having enough funds to continue paying the bills until business comes back. Many boutiques and specialty stores (cosmetics, fancy pet food, etc.) are going to take a hit, in some cases fatal. And then there will be the ancillary businesses, like ad agencies, travel consultants, and freelance video producers, that suffer for lack of money floating around.

I wrote in the Boy that Dow thread that I expect the market to come back relatively quickly. I still do; market averages are not the entire economy. But this pandemic is going to leave a sizable mark on lots of people who don't suffer more than a cough for a few days.

I think you are right. There could be all kinds of short and longer term ramifications. Will online education increase or decrease its stigma after so many new students are exposed to it? Or will working from home or telemedicine be looked at differently? Will certain careers or investments be viewed differently after their vulnerabilities are highlighted in such an extreme way? Will the general public become more amenable to big government solutions or find a renewed respect for local and individual action?

[Tradd]

My manager came into the office today with a story that she talked to someone last night who works for the Feds. We’re going on a 2 week lockdown beginning Monday but they’re only going to announce it Sunday night so there’s no panicked preparation. She said United Nations troops are going to enforce it. I laughed. She didn’t get it when I told her UN troops wouldn’t be involved as they come from outside the US.

Another coworker said a friend of her in the National Guard was told she’s going to be gone for around 30 days. That does make sense as the NG is already being used for various things.

Manager told our regional VP. We’re having to take all our files home with us tomorrow.

She is gullible and doesn’t pay attention to the regular news.

[Geila]

I went grocery shopping this morning just to see how things were and buy some meat for the freezer if available. Pleasantly surprised that the store had everything I needed, including lots of fresh veggies and fruit so I loaded up on those. Bought some pork for the freezer and a few other things. They still had some toilet paper and paper towels, not much, but some and they are restricting quantities. I didn't need any so left them for others. They are well stocked on eggs, milk, chicken, etc. Plenty of staples on the shelves: crackers, tortillas, rice, beans, even some bread. And they had plenty of fresh-baked bread as well as their rotisserie chicken.

Everyone was pleasant and we even exchanged a few jokes amongst our fellow shoppers and staff, who were busy stocking the shelves and produce.

Traffic was light on the street and the weirdest thing was seeing the mall parking lot completely empty.

We should be good for the next few weeks.

Correction: They had everything I WANTED. It's so easy to see wants as needs immediately. I had everything I needed already. Gosh, we are used to so much comfort.

[SteveinMN]

I think you are right. There could be all kinds of short and longer term ramifications.

You hit on the societal changes stemming from the pandemic, another whole element of it.

If enough work can be done from homes, do companies need to build huge structures their employees commute to every day? People are social and there are many jobs which are not easy to replicate at home. But for those of us who could work with a computer to get most/all of our work done, how critical is an fixed office or cube somewhere? Maybe office buildings start to look more like those co-work places where you walk in, grab a cart of supplies, find a spot, and get to work. Make it convenient for you. Pick the place near your kids' day care or your favorite coffee shop. Does it matter that the company logo is not on the building? Smaller buildings, less to buy, less to heat/cool/repair, ... so what happens to the commercial real estate market? What happens to the old command-and-control managerial model? If the work gets done without the boss walking by the desk at regular intervals, what does the boss do instead of making bed checks?

The number of local businesses I've seen that have moved to a drive up/pay/load up/drive home/delivery model -- and the speed with which it's happened -- surprises me. The vet clinic we used to use now asks you to call when you arrive with your pet. A vet tech comes out, takes the pet, they do their thing inside, the pet is returned to you, the vet tech can take your payment, and the tech can relay what the vet said or the vet will call you later with the Dx and treatment options. You no longer wait in their building.

Someone in another thread mentioned curbside pickup at Sherwin-Williams, about the last place I would ever think would change their business model. They did it in the space of a week or two. Local bar/pizza joint is doing the same thing. What does this mean for delivery services if every company now has a process for sales outside their stores? Not that (some) people don't want to shop, but it's a new delivery model and it showed up almost literally overnight.

My favorite radio station -- non-profit, listener-supported, has moved all of its staff out of the studios. Even the on-air staff is doing their shows from home. The only people on hand are an engineer at the booth to monitor the equipment. They did this in days. If nothing else, it shows resourcefulness and that business can move a whole lot faster than many thought it could. That could be an interesting dynamic in the future, too.

Kind of fun to watch this aspect of it.

[LDAHL]

You hit on the societal changes stemming from the pandemic, another whole element of it.

If enough work can be done from homes, do companies need to build huge structures their employees commute to every day? People are social and there are many jobs which are not easy to replicate at home. But for those of us who could work with a computer to get most/all of our work done, how critical is an fixed office or cube somewhere? Maybe office buildings start to look more like those co-work places where you walk in, grab a cart of supplies, find a spot, and get to work. Make it convenient for you. Pick the place near your kids' day care or your favorite coffee shop. Does it matter that the company logo is not on the building? Smaller buildings, less to buy, less to heat/cool/repair, ... so what happens to the commercial real estate market? What happens to the old command-and-control managerial model? If the work gets done without the boss walking by the desk at regular intervals, what does the boss do instead of making bed checks?

The number of local businesses I've seen that have moved to a drive up/pay/load up/drive home/delivery model -- and the speed with which it's happened -- surprises me. The vet clinic we used to use now asks you to call when you arrive with your pet. A vet tech comes out, takes the pet, they do their thing inside, the pet is returned to you, the vet tech can take your payment, and the tech can relay what the vet said or the vet will call you later with the Dx and treatment options. You no longer wait in their building.

Someone in another thread mentioned curbside pickup at Sherwin-Williams, about the last place I would ever think would change their business model. They did it in the space of a week or two. Local bar/pizza joint is doing the same thing. What does this mean for delivery services if every company now has a process for sales outside their stores? Not that (some) people don't want to shop, but it's a new delivery model and it showed up almost literally overnight.

My favorite radio station -- non-profit, listener-supported, has moved all of its staff out of the studios. Even the on-air staff is doing their shows from home. The only people on hand are an engineer at the booth to monitor the equipment. They did this in days. If nothing else, it shows resourcefulness and that business can move a whole lot faster than many thought it could. That could be an interesting dynamic in the future, too.

Kind of fun to watch this aspect of it.

It is interesting. The thought of working from home and not being aware of your coworkers and supervisors or professors were human or artificial intelligence.