View Full Version : Conavirus......
So here I am five days later and I’m still healthy, so I guess I’m OK. I got lucky. And I did have Pfizer shot number one under my belt.
Just a single dose gives you a significant improvement in odds after just a few days, so breath easy!
GeorgeParker
3-20-21, 3:59pm
Just a single dose gives you a significant improvement in odds after just a few days, so breath easy!In theory this is like figuring any other odds: What are the odds that you'll be in the airspace of someone who has Covid and is in the infectious stage? What are the odds that your mask will filter out enough of whatever virus is in the air from that person to prevent you becoming infected? What are the odds of the first Pfizer shot having generated enough immunity already to kill any Covid virus that does end up in your respiratory system? Multiply it all together, and you end up with pretty good odds that you won't get Covid.
Wrap up and open the car window
. Maybe she will get the point. It is all playing the odds. I am fully vaccinated but am aware I do not have a big V on my forehead so I wear a mask, in addition to all the other reasons, so people who are afraid can relax a little.
One thing that confuses me is use of masks in outdoor spaces. I/we don't wear ours when walking around the neighborhood or in the park. About half of people do and half don't outdoors. From what I have read, the odds of inhaling enough virus outdoors is minimal and trying to take a brisk walk or run with a mask on makes it especially hard to breathe. I wouldn't go to a crowded event outdoors without one but otherwise...
GeorgeParker
3-20-21, 5:26pm
One thing that confuses me is use of masks in outdoor spaces. I/we don't wear ours when walking around the neighborhood or in the park. About half of people do and half don't outdoors. From what I have read, the odds of inhaling enough virus outdoors is minimal and trying to take a brisk walk or run with a mask on makes it especially hard to breathe. I wouldn't go to a crowded event outdoors without one but otherwise...I'm very cautious, but I agree with your reasoning. In fact I figure if I'm outside and more than 10 feet from the nearest person I'm pretty safe if there are only a few scattered people around. The problem is there is always some maskless butthead who will walk right up to you, often from behind or from one side, and start talking to you. So I always wear a mask if I'm in a public place. The only exception is when I'm riding my motorcycle. I feel safe then because most cars turn on their heat or air-conditioning and keep their windows closed.
iris lilies
3-20-21, 5:32pm
One thing that confuses me is use of masks in outdoor spaces. I/we don't wear ours when walking around the neighborhood or in the park. About half of people do and half don't outdoors. From what I have read, the odds of inhaling enough virus outdoors is minimal and trying to take a brisk walk or run with a mask on makes it especially hard to breathe. I wouldn't go to a crowded event outdoors without one but otherwise...
Yes, I agree!
I regularly go outside but do not carry a mask because I don’t intend to talk to anyone. If I do end up seeing a neighbor I want to talk to, I stand far far away and we kind of shout at each other.
GeorgeParker
3-20-21, 5:33pm
If most people in the US actually had concern for others our infection stats would look more like countries like Australia.If most people in the US actually had concern for others 75%-90% of all our social, legal, environmental, housing, food supply, energy, transportation, and other problems would have been solved a long time ago. And I don't see it happening.
I carry a mask when doing things outdoors, in case for some reason I have to get close to someone. I try to arrange things so that this doesn't happen. I did this pre-pandemic as well though :-)
I can't think of any rational support for me wearing a mask when hiking on the 80 miles of empty trails on the mountain I live on. I mean, when the weather is bad, I wear something over my face to avoid freezing, but that's a different issue.
So the CDC says students can now be 3 not 6 feet apart because masks will protect them. If masks really protected them then they could sit shoulder to shoulder. Obviously masks do not stop covid transmission or given all the masks being worn the disease would have gone away by now.
happystuff
3-21-21, 10:53am
So the CDC says students can now be 3 not 6 feet apart because masks will protect them. If masks really protected them then they could sit shoulder to shoulder. Obviously masks do not stop covid transmission or given all the masks being worn the disease would have gone away by now.
Playing your "if" game... IF EVERYONE wore masks, especially from the onset of this, then YES, they could probably sit shoulder to shoulder NOW!
More trollish things. Troll troll troll..
Troll.
happystuff
3-21-21, 1:10pm
I carry a mask when doing things outdoors, in case for some reason I have to get close to someone.
I also carry a mask pretty much all the time and probably will from here on out. So simple to help keep me safe and others safe.
Troll. Wow! Look how easy it is to to make it look like someone Originally Posted something they did not. A great trick of Bae's. He's so smart!
'Nough said?
I hugged my parents for the first time in over a year. So glad they are both vaccinated since my mom fell and broke her back and it would not be easy for her to come outdoors to visit with me.
My brother and I stayed six feet away from each other since neither of us is vaccinated.
happystuff
3-21-21, 3:29pm
I hugged my parents for the first time in over a year. So glad they are both vaccinated since my mom fell and broke her back and it would not be easy for her to come outdoors to visit with me.
My brother and I stayed six feet away from each other since neither of us is vaccinated.
Glad you got to hug your parents, but you realize the vaccine won't necessarily PREVENT them from getting sick, just hopefully keep them from dying - (edited to add) should they get some strain of COVID-19 after being vaccinated. So you not being vaccinated still means you can definitely be a carrier and make them sick.
Edited to add again - Them being vaccinated made it safer for YOU.
I'll probably carry a mask for the foreseeable future, especially as the threats from variants develops. If nothing else, it will be handy for flu season, even if I haven't contracted a case of the flu literally for decades now.
Teacher Terry
3-22-21, 1:41am
Being vaccinated also means that the chance of getting sick from the virus is slim although possible. Before my kids were vaccinated or my friends I was comfortable being around them because I was vaccinated. Nothing is 100% so I think Yppej is fine to be around her parents. I am happy to have my life back. I still wear masks going into stores, etc.
I hugged my parents for the first time in over a year. So glad they are both vaccinated since my mom fell and broke her back and it would not be easy for her to come outdoors to visit with me.
My brother and I stayed six feet away from each other since neither of us is vaccinated.
I am so sorry to hear that your poor mom broke her back! That is terrible, and it is so difficult dealing with health issues now. I am glad you got to hug her. When I got to hug my dad after a year, we both cried for about five minutes. I am really glad you can be there for and with your mom and that she has been vaccinated. Thank God for small mercies.
happystuff
3-22-21, 9:36am
Being vaccinated also means that the chance of getting sick from the virus is slim although possible. Before my kids were vaccinated or my friends I was comfortable being around them because I was vaccinated. Nothing is 100% so I think Yppej is fine to be around her parents. I am happy to have my life back. I still wear masks going into stores, etc.
My point was that since YOU are vaccinated, YOU are comfortable, but you - however slim - could still carry a variant and pass it along to someone who is NOT vaccinated, and someone who is NOT vaccinated can still potentially carry and give you a variant that you are not vaccinated against. Granted these scenarios may be very slim, but when it comes to the health and safety of my family, I will still practice safety until even more is learned about the vaccines, the variant strains and the various rates of spreading between vaccinated and non-vaccinated people.
I think of it like the flu shot. I get the shot and I'm protected against SOME flu strains - not all. Someone who doesn't get the flu shot can still give me a variety of the flu and/or I have the potential of carrying a variety and passing it on to them.
Again, it seems to all come down to the level of risk a person is willing to expose themselves and others to - personal choice. For me personally, the information is still not definitive enough with regards to these scenarios for me to feel "back to normal" after I get my 2nd vaccine.
iris lilies
3-22-21, 10:26am
...Again, it seems to all come down to the level of risk a person is willing to expose themselves and others to - personal choice. For me personally, the information is still not definitive enough with regards to these scenarios for me to feel "back to normal" after I get my 2nd vaccine.
Yes, we will all take a different path of risk.
For me, stepping out into the world of normalcy is a step, or two, or three, masked up and conscious of space between me and others.
I can’t envision the time when I will willingly go into an enclosed interior space shoulder to shoulder with a bunch of people again! But I suppose that time will return.
Teacher Terry
3-22-21, 11:40am
Happy, you are working in a warehouse which is definitely a risky thing to do. Locally the virus has spread through some of ours. If I was doing that I would avoid elderly people also. I joined a singles dining group and am comfortable being with up to 20 people at these events. A year was long enough to be in isolation. I wouldn’t go without the vaccine but there’s some seniors in the group that are just getting it.
I am going to restaurants twice a week. I feel very comfortable as do my friends that are vaccinated. I can finally shop again versus ordering online for groceries. My kids were very paranoid and also felt safe once vaccinated. My DIL went back to work in a casino 2 weeks after the first dose. Yppej, it’s sad your mom broke her back but I say enjoy your parents while you have them.
The Spanish flu was the leading cause of death in 1918. Announced in today's news - in 2020 covid was the third leading cause of death in the US. Keep this in mind the next time you see something on social media about how bad covid is compared to other disasters, when those posts don't take into account differences in population over time among other things.
The Spanish flu was the leading cause of death in 1918. Announced in today's news - in 2020 covid was the third leading cause of death in the US. Keep this in mind the next time you see something on social media about how bad covid is compared to other disasters, when those posts don't take into account differences in population over time among other things.
#1. Heart Disease-not contagious 690,882
#2. Cancer-dozens of kinds. Also, not contagious. 598,932
#3. Covid. Contagious.....PREVENTABLE to a significant degree 8 months 345,323 deaths . Extrapolate to 1 year (at that low starting death rate) 460,431
2021 death rate on track for 822,708. Total for 12 months: 551,000. Fabulous don't ya think?
Assuming Suicide at a measly 44k is totally not worthy of attention whatsoever?
Really....you think no biggie? >:(
Wow, those numbers are really interesting. Those first two, while not contagious, have a certain degree of preventability, I think, so it makes me think of what I need to do going forward if I wish to remain around and not succumb to one of them. Interesting!
Big increase in cases in both Chicago and the surrounding area. 18-30 somethings are the culprit. The Chicago positivity rate has gone from 3 to 4% in the past week. The mayor is threatening to roll back 20% at the ball parks and bar/restaurant capacity increases.
Just wondering....is this our record for thread length?
And, in the middle of it all, lame, housebound, unvaccinated Jane just got a jury summons.
After a bit of a search, I managed to get hold of a helpful staff person who excused me permanently.
I wouldn't have minded serving if the conditions were different, but really...
The last time I was summoned, I had just moved to Bellevue when Washington County, Oregon sent me a notice. A couple of lucky defendants dodged bullets.
Just wondering....is this our record for thread length?
Not sure if it #1 or #2. The other thread in the running would be the trump thread that Williamsmith started back in 2016.
Things are getting bad in Cook County (where Chicago is). I’m on the far edge of suburban Cook. Looking like indoor dining will be going away. Frankly, I think recreational air travel needs to go away.
But reason behind the spread here is the 18-30 something age group.
I agree with you on the air travel Tradd. Now we have a new possibly doubly dangerous from India here because it was never shut down.
Personally I think that recreational baseball game attendance should be ended. From what I saw on the news today the people in stupidville are about to have a massive increase in cases of the covid. But, ‘yeah freedumb!’
gimmethesimplelife
4-7-21, 8:25pm
Things are getting bad in Cook County (where Chicago is). I’m on the far edge of suburban Cook. Looking like indoor dining will be going away. Frankly, I think recreational air travel needs to go away.
But reason behind the spread here is the 18-30 something age group.Don't be too shocked - with all these variants afoot I'd agree that recreational air travel needs to cease for a bit. Rob
iris lilies
4-7-21, 8:53pm
Personally I think that recreational baseball game attendance should be ended. From what I saw on the news today the people in stupidville are about to have a massive increase in cases of the covid. But, ‘yeah freedumb!’
The Cards are opening with a third of their seats being sold for social distancing, no vendor sales, and other precautions.
This in an outdoor venue.
Seems reasonable to me.
The Cards are opening with a third of their seats being sold for social distancing, no vendor sales, and other precautions.
This in an outdoor venue.
Seems reasonable to me.
The Cubs and White Sox are doing the same. Not sure about the Sox, but the Cubs are doing no contact vendor sales. People are assigned specific gates.
The Cards are opening with a third of their seats being sold for social distancing, no vendor sales, and other precautions.
This in an outdoor venue.
Seems reasonable to me.
Meanwhile, in stupidville, they had a full house. And from what I saw on the teevee news maybe a third were wearing masks. But since everything is supposedly bigger in Texas I guess they might as well make the fourth wave of covid bigger as well. The ****ing stupidity is impressive.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEFlAVj-IX8iUgMayKK1gEKsqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowvIaCCzDnxf4CMN2F8 gU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
Texas and Florida seem to be vying for worst possible response to this pandemic.
Teacher Terry
4-8-21, 10:50am
Jp, they could have done baseball the smart way like others are planning. It’s a shame.
Texas and Florida seem to be vying for worst possible response to this pandemic.
People keep pushing that scolding narrative, but are those states substantially worse off in real-world numbers than the ones who imposed more draconian lockdowns?
ApatheticNoMore
4-8-21, 2:47pm
The "draconian" lockdowns seldom were. They no more exist than the Easter bunny. I sat here in California appalled at the continuing opening of stuff. I literally watched the hospitals get overwhelmed (they failed the lowest possible bar: flatten the curve enough to preserve hospital capacity), as they didn't shut down stuff because of xmas shopping and they had to get black friday in too.
They will lie to us of course and say "well who could have known hospitals would have been overwhelmed", while claiming to work from models on diseases spread and prediction. But I suspect their models weren't really THAT bad, they just let it happen. I mean someone should investigate, how did it happen, were the models really that off or was it a choice? It did not help of course that we had mini rebellions going on with sheriffs refusing to enforce lockdown as well. Tell me does that on the ground reality ever figure into the mythical "draconian" lockdowns that were supposedly happening?
Now states differed in a lot of features. Those that were hit early when we had no idea how to treat this thing had high death tolls. Some places have problems with overcrowding etc.. But almost nowhere did anyone do draconian lockdowns, certainly not in California.
Texas and Florida seem to be vying for worst possible response to this pandemic.
They try but the reality is that north and South Dakota win the award. Part of the problem for Florida’s efforts is that they export a lot of their success at spreading the disease to other states who get to count the case numbers and deaths as their own wins.
People keep pushing that scolding narrative, but are those states substantially worse off in real-world numbers than the ones who imposed more draconian lockdowns?
Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents
Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents
Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.
King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.
If you really want to see what it looks like if no safety measures were taken pick a state like Kansas and look at most of the small county numbers. Gove county, population 2600 had 22 deaths for an eye popping 8,321 death rate per million.
Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents
Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents
Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.
King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.
If you really want to see what it looks like if no safety measures were taken pick a state like Kansas and look at most of the small county numbers. Gove county, population 2600 had 22 deaths for an eye popping 8,321 death rate per million.
I find it fascinating that doubters never do their own research, they just doubt. Very kind of you to find data that you've reviewed before to show that you aren't just talking off the cuff. 'Tis getting very old.
ApatheticNoMore
4-8-21, 4:09pm
Sam Francisco county - 588 deaths per million residents
Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents
Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million.
King county Washington - 657 deaths per million.
Los Angeles county, 2,334 deaths per million. Wow does that surpass Maimi dade? Of course it does. MASSIVE FAIL.
But team red and team blue frontal lobotomy, pick a cherry, is it a red cherry or a blue cherry? Governor Newsom FAILED, our local leaders FAILED, and ultimately because of that the hospital system FAILED. :( And I don't care if they all lose their jobs because of it, heads gotta roll. Noone responsible should be in office.
ApatheticNoMore
4-8-21, 4:22pm
In order of increasing deaths:
San Francisco county - 588 deaths per million (per capital income 139-140k)
King county Washington - 657 deaths per million (per capita income 94-95k)
Dallas county - 1478 deaths per million residents (per capita income 62-63k)
Miami dade county - 2183 deaths per million (per capita income 54k)
Los Angeles country - 2,334 deaths per million (per capita income 65k)
No I am not doing cost of living adjustments, too much work :). And yea, yea correlation, only a few examples, maybe should be a median, blah blah, this is post big deal. But still think it's about red states and blue states? S-o-c-i-a-l D-e-t-e-r-m-i-n-a-n-t-s o-f H-e-a-l-t-h. Of course policy also helps but that too probably flows from wealth. But with conditions of poverty hard hits many places could be predicted, and they did nothing to stop it either.
There may be other factors, noone really knows what all them are now though. Either way our politicians failed as hospitals became overwhelmed.
I find it fascinating that doubters never do their own research, they just doubt. Very kind of you to find data that you've reviewed before to show that you aren't just talking off the cuff. 'Tis getting very old.
I think that's called cherry picking data, not terribly helpful but interesting none-the-less.
My point wasn’t red state blue state but that doing lockdowns and people actually following them work. Which was what a previous poster had doubted. Ohio is a red governor state but they’ve done comparatively well overall because the governor took the pandemic seriously. Or at least had earlier. Not sure about their current status.
My point wasn’t red state blue state but that doing lockdowns and people actually following them work. As part of just today's discussion on the topic it was pointed out that Texas and Florida were vying for the worst possible response to the pandemic, both states having been endlessly excoriated in the greater discussion by people who like to say things like "freedumb" when mentioning them. Another poster asked if those states were worse off than others and you chose to reply using cherry picked county stats to imply that 'yes they are'.
Of course the problem is that they are not. As of this very moment, Florida and California are statistically tied in deaths per 100,000 while the difference between those states and Texas is close enough to be a rounding error. And, it would appear that they're doing much better than approximately half of the other states.
Here's a link to current covid deaths per 100,000 for all 50 states and DC for anyone interested. • U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/)
It's interesting to note that any particular state's lockdown status seems to have little effect on the numbers. I suspect it has more to do with population density, access to health care and other local factors, but that's just speculation on my part.
iris lilies
4-8-21, 7:40pm
I agree that County stats are not useful if we’re talking about states.
But if we’re looking at death rates, don’t you have to look at age of the population as well? Are there a lot of old people in Florida? Arent there the fewer per capital old people in California?
Once again, statewide mandates don’t necessarily mean a lot. Cities and counties can be restrictive as they are in my state with the state itself is not restrictive. We can let local government manage this. No it’s a different question as *IF* they manage it.
The sneering and shaming —it’s just as effective as you all have told me for years it is. I thought we didn’t shame people? I thought shaming was not conducive to good human relations? I’m confused.
I guess at the end of the day we can bicker over whether red states or blue states did better at keeping people alive or we could bicker over what actions by governmental entities and individuals actually worked to keep people safe. There's enough evidence out there to indicate that things like mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering, regardless of where, worked if people actually followed them. Some places the government did the right thing, some places they didn't. Some places people actually follow the guidelines/mandates, and some places people haven't. Arbitrarily deciding that only whole state statistics matter is silliness that just ignores the reality that in the end people doing the right things is all that mattered. The government dictates mattered not much if people didn't follow them. And wouldn't have been necessary if people would've done the right thing if told what it was regardless of whether the government ordered it.
The thing that has been so dispiriting about this pandemic is the realization that there are a lot of people in this country who simply aren't willing to make any sort of sacrifice to their lifestyle in order to reduce the spread of a pandemic that has now killed more than half a million americans. So maybe it's not "yay freedumb". Maybe more accurately it's "yay selfishness!" And that comes from both sides of the political aisle. Only one dresses it up in the cloak of freedumb but plenty of people from both are behaving just as abhorrently.
ApatheticNoMore
4-9-21, 1:54am
There's enough evidence out there to indicate that things like mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering, regardless of where, worked if people actually followed them.
this seems fallacious,maybe no true scottsman. So the counter argument would be "mask mandates and limiting indoor gathering (to the extent done in the U.S. which I think was woefully insufficient) didn't always work, see x, y, z". And then this could always be countered "but there was a mandate but it wasn't followed". I mean is there any way the argument doesn't become a closed one that could not possibly be disproved by any possible evidence because every counter example is met with "but it wasn't followed"?
Mind you as a factual matter, I don't even believe it was all caused by "but it wasn't followed" anyway. It was to a large part driven by crowded living conditions and workers working essential jobs, at least as much as it ever was due to "bad people doing things they shouldn't". But sure since there was no real enforcement attempted, other countries had stricter enforcement but the U.S. never did, people breaking rules will always exist to some degree, if they didn't want it, maybe there should have been some enforcement.
I don't really blame the pandemic on the people's of this country by and large. I think that's a dishonest deflection those with actual power use to deflect their share of responsibility. It's straight up manipulation so that they never have to be held accountable for their actions.
I blame it on leaders, structural factors, and a certain amount of dumb bad luck perhaps. Polls often showed the majority wanted things not to be opened up so quickly in the spring, people were very cooperative then. It wasn't the majority of the people who wanted what happened, but government leaders made their choices driven by policy in D.C., driven by economic worries etc.. Certain things like masks became bizarrely politicized (in part due to Trump sure), but there was nothing all that inevitable in that either, it's just how it unfolded. The public health authorities gave bad advice after bad advice (never emphasized the difference between indoor and outdoor). They were objectively bad. As people we trudge along anyway maybe we know the difference between indoor and outdoor, maybe we don't, but many people tried to do the best they could, despite government failing almost utterly. All we ever got from them who had the actual power to have clear public communication and didn't and to close things down and didn't in time, was shaming, never a single thank you to all those doing what they understood, when powerful people's decisions on putting business first overwhelmed the hospitals.
My County, which did not have "draconian" lockdowns, has had 0 deaths per million.
My County, which did not have "draconian" lockdowns, has had 0 deaths per million.
We had such low incidence where we lived in Michigan, which was rural and by the lake, compared with the cities, that I think it has more to do with population density and air quality, particularly air quality. I also think there are genetic components as to who is more susceptible, and that maybe more enviromental things we don't yet know.
Definitely population density is a factor. My state's most rural county has fared best. I feel so lucky to have been working there since October and when case counts spike where I live I get groceries near work even though it is more expensive.
Population density ain’t the problem. The worst hit counties in Kansas are all sparsely populated rural counties.
I think it's increasingly random in terms of where it strikes the hardest. Vermont was extremely low in cases and deaths until the last few months. Even my rural county has spiked. Then you hear Florida and Texas bragging about how little they pay heed to safety measures and frankly, they're not dong all that bad--I think Florida is roughly in the middle of # of cases/deaths.
I'm not in favor of thumbing my nose at fate, however. I believe in masks and social distancing, but I think the patterns we've seen recently defy any "formula" for safety. Maybe these states with moderate numbers of cases despite no care in the world for masking are lying about their numbers, but I doubt it.
iris lilies
4-9-21, 7:59am
I think it's increasingly random in terms of where it strikes the hardest. Vermont was extremely low in cases and deaths until the last few months. Even my rural county has spiked. Then you hear Florida and Texas bragging about how little they pay heed to safety measures and frankly, they're not dong all that bad--I think Florida is roughly in the middle of # of cases/deaths.
I'm not in favor of thumbing my nose at fate, however. I believe in masks and social distancing, but I think the patterns we've seen recently defy any "formula" for safety. Maybe these states with moderate numbers of cases despite no care in the world for masking are lying about their numbers, but I doubt it.
Certainly aggressive counting brings rewards to some jurisdictions, so there’s that. Aggressive counting, creative counting, benefit-of-the-doubt counting is going on to some extent.
In the Biden funeral giveaway, that there might engender a bit of creativity with death certificates. In case anyone thinks I am just making this up, one of the experts on the NPR show yesterday talked about the pressure this new giveaway will put on physicians ro write the correct thing on the death certificate. He is an academic in the social sciences whose area of study is death culture. That is “the science” as we know it, apparently.
I agree that there are many factors at work, but when I see the President accuse Texas of “Neanderthal thinking” and the recent botched 60 Minutes hit piece directed at the Florida Governor, I have to wonder if some of our media culture warriors are pushing a narrative here. Compared to say, New York or California these states seemed to do better at preserving their economies while doing as well on infections. There doesn’t seem to me to be much objective evidence for the constant drumbeat of contempt aimed at “freedumb”.
I have to wonder if some of our media culture warriors are pushing a narrative here. In my opinion, they absolutely are. I think people forget that media news organizations are independent businesses or profit centers for their owners, and selling their product to their preferred demographic is their ultimate goal. Sometimes that means giving their customers what they want by crafting narratives designed to keep their audiences coming back. Unfortunately, carefully crafted narratives sell better than objective analysis.
That business model requires a fair amount of effort from people wanting to be truly informed to separate the wheat from the chaff.
ApatheticNoMore
4-9-21, 12:11pm
Population density ain’t the problem. The worst hit counties in Kansas are all sparsely populated rural counties.
not density per se but overcrowding almost certainly played a roll. When you have 20 people or more living in a single family home or a single apartment unit, that's not your properly planned density, but it is overcrowding.
but honestly saying states with "draconian" shutdowns didn't fare better is like saying "I used to eat 2 whole chocolates cake every night and couldn't lose weight, now I'm only eating 1 whole chocolate cake every night and yet I'm still not! I don't think my cake consumption has any effect on my weight at all!" Draconian restrictions no more actually existed that eating a chocolate cake a day is calorie restriction. If no restrictions at all existed would the death toll be even higher, probably.
Back in the early days the anti-lockdown folks were pointing to them to 'prove' that lockdowns weren't effective. Lets see how that worked out for them.
As of today:
Finland 157 dead per million
Norway 128 dead per million
Sweden 1369 dead per million.
Countries like South Korea and New Zealand, Cuba and Vietnam*, who took the threat seriously, are likely even lower.
Oregon and Washington are doing better than average (after Washington got blindsided), due IMO, to effective leadership.
*And many, many others. Our statistics are grim in comparison.
ApatheticNoMore
4-9-21, 1:23pm
Countries like South Korea and New Zealand, Cuba and Vietnam*, who took the threat seriously, are likely even lower.
these are examples of zero-covid policy though right? I'm not sure when all is said and done they are going to conclude that lockdowns that do not try to eliminate the virus work all that well. As opposed to zero-virus, which DOES try to eliminate the virus and not let it come back, which has worked surprisingly well. But U.S. lockdowns were never ever that and there is no point in pretending they were. Supposedly "draconian lockdowns" included "outdoor dining" in tents, um ... yea.
Maybe it slowed transmission enough that some people will get the vaccine rather than the virus and if one is one of these people of course that's what they want. I suspect 50% of people may have had the virus here, so that's not much of a slowing, and is actually in so many ways a failure of policy. But that's still 50% that will get the vaccine rather than the virus, glass half full. But only because this is the U.S. and we are first in line for the vaccine, Europe and other places with slow vaccine rollout do not have time on their side.
Lockdowns can preserve hospital capacity when threatened, but the political will to do that was sometimes not even there. When you have an unknown virus and your hospitals are getting overwhelmed it makes some sense to do a lockdown though (early days in New York certainly).
Our contact tracing was next to non-existent, so I tend to agree with you.
Just ran across an interesting piece of news. Despite concerns to the contrary, apparently the number of suicides in the US during 2020 fell 6% from 2019.
iris lilies
4-9-21, 3:25pm
Just ran across an interesting piece of news. Despite concerns to the contrary, apparently the number of suicides in the US during 2020 fell 6% from 2019.
Of course, we didn’t have to interact with each other!
ApatheticNoMore
4-9-21, 4:59pm
Of course, we didn’t have to interact with each other!
it's humor but there is probably a lot to that (well except the people who live with people that are stressful - their life was no fun)
Of course, we didn’t have to interact with each other!
Lol. Good point. Although to be honest the few times in my life I’ve thought about murdering someone after an unpleasant interaction it wasn’t myself. 😂
I see Governor De Santis is still lying about the number of COVID deaths in Florida:
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/20200513/coronavirus-florida-editorial-gov-desantis-still-hiding-crucial-data-on-covid-19-deaths-from-public
I see Governor De Santis is still lying about the number of COVID deaths in Florida:
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opinion/20200513/coronavirus-florida-editorial-gov-desantis-still-hiding-crucial-data-on-covid-19-deaths-from-public
I see that article was posted nearly a year ago. I suspect if they’re looking to create a red state Cuomo they’re going to need to be a little more creative.
I see that article was posted nearly a year ago. I suspect if they’re looking to create a red state Cuomo they’re going to need to be a little more creative.
Update: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/03/florida-covid-19-deaths
He's still at it.
Update: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/03/florida-covid-19-deaths
He's still at it.
The accusation of 4,924 additional deaths seems oddly specific. Nor does the third most populous state having the third highest death count seem all that damning. I suspect it will take more than one disgruntled former employee to get us to Cuomo levels.
My impression is that the enmity of the media seems to have done the Governor more good than harm thus far.
My mother told me about several people I know who are themselves hospitalized for covid or have relatives who are. All are in their 80's or 90's.
I noticed WMUR in New Hampshire reports daily covid deaths by age bracket and county. The other day there were two - one a man over 60 and in a different county a woman over 60. I think this type of information has helped people assess their risks and act accordingly - get vaccinated if they are older (they lead the nation in vaccination rates) and avoid excess fears in others.
Stumbled across a sad, but not tragic, story about some friends of ours while reading the news today. Chad and Tom are at the fringe of our social circle, much closer friends to some of our other friends than to us although in pre-covid times they had been to our place once or twice for barbecues and we ran into them from time to time if we were out for happy hour or whatever. We'd heard last spring that Chad had moved out because of concern that he might bring covid home and risk Tom's life. I had no idea, though, that Chad had become infected and seriously ill, or that they had remained apart for over a year.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/The-pandemic-forced-this-Bay-Area-couple-to-spend-16107280.php
rosarugosa
4-21-21, 5:20am
JP: I could only read the first few lines and then I hit a paywall.
DH and I went out to a restaurant for the first time since 3/14/20 with Mom, Sis, Sis's boyfriend and Mom's best friend. We are all vaccinated except for Sis's boyfriend, who just became eligible this week. It was fun to get together. Restaurant wasn't empty but definitely not crowded.
JP: I could only read the first few lines and then I hit a paywall.
DH and I went out to a restaurant for the first time since 3/14/20 with Mom, Sis, Sis's boyfriend and Mom's best friend. We are all vaccinated except for Sis's boyfriend, who just became eligible this week. It was fun to get together. Restaurant wasn't empty but definitely not crowded.
Enjoy it! Ontario is in lockdown again until mid-May due to rising numbers and overlaoded ICU's but outdoor patios are open, I think. Not sure that I would go there, though.
iris lilies
4-21-21, 9:21am
Jp1, that is a sad story i deed about those two men.
happystuff
4-21-21, 10:54am
Immediately hit the pay wall, but even the article title is so sad!
JP: I could only read the first few lines and then I hit a paywall.
It's weird, I don't subscribe but could read it, but you and my sister both hit paywalls... Here's the text of it:
What happened was a monumental upheaval in the couple’s lives. With the advent of the pandemic, Chad’s career as an ER nurse at Kaiser Richmond was directly threatening to Tom, who has respiratory issues and an immune system disorder that could have made COVID-19 fatal.
So, starting in February 2020, Chad, 49, lived alone in motels for months on end, including during the summer when he contracted the virus and was on oxygen for six weeks.
Meanwhile, Tom, 59, never left the house, ordering all his food and supplies. “It was just like Howard Hughes, all the fear and terror knowing there was something right outside that door that almost guaranteed would kill me,” he said.
The couple never saw each other in person the whole time. They stayed connected via constant FaceTime calls, but it wasn’t the same as cuddling on the couch. Both endured loneliness and isolation.
Now thanks to being vaccinated, the Bakers are reunited. Their saga, which took a toll on them physically, financially and emotionally, encapsulates some of the many ways the pandemic upended people’s lives and forced them to adapt in ways they never expected.
The most catastrophic hit was to Chad’s health. He is now a COVID long-hauler — someone afflicted with lasting ill effects from the virus.
In July he spiked a fever, felt weak and had shortness of breath. The hospital notified him he’d been exposed to COVID-19. A subsequent positive diagnosis was not a surprise.
As a critical care nurse, Chad was able to provide his own care, including managing his supplemental oxygen. With hospitals overwhelmed, he hoped not to become an in-patient. Instead he holed up at a Pleasant Hill hotel.
“I was crazy sick,” he said. “Getting up and walking to the door for the DoorDash or UberEats drop-off was pretty much all I could muster.”
He developed a cascade of complications. There was sudden onset insulin-dependent diabetes, a documented COVID side effect that still continues. There was brain fog, which also continues.
He contracted post-viral sinusitis, an aggressive bacterial infection that didn’t respond to antibiotics or steroids, forcing him to administer IV antibiotics to himself every eight hours for several weeks. Eventually it required surgery.
The onset of wildfires that shrouded the region in smoke made things worse. “I was already having so much shortness of breath,” he said. “I would sit on the couch with an air purifier on my lap.”
He went back to work for a couple of weeks in the fall but his oxygen levels were too low to continue. Then he spent a couple of months on modified duty, including making outreach calls to COVID patients.
Tom was a constant presence on FaceTime, helping advocate for Chad to his medical team.
“I just lived the fear,” Tom said. “It was high anxiety, feeling so helpless, knowing he was isolated in a hotel room.” He had already lost a partner to the AIDS epidemic in 1992.
“I don’t know how both of them survived this,” said Andrea Walker, a nurse colleague in the Kaiser Richmond ER. “They were apart for so long. It was really heartbreaking to see.”
The ordeal was also a huge financial drain.
Chad paid for his hotel rooms out of pocket for many weeks, battling with Kaiser for reimbursement, as The Chronicle reported at the time. Eventually the state offered a Hotels for Health Care Workers program that covered room costs. But the trade-off was constant moving as prices changed.
Tom, a healthcare administrator, was recovering from a stroke and between jobs when the pandemic hit, so he has no income. Chad has been receiving worker’s compensation.
They consumed their savings and are now getting some support via a GoFundMe campaign.
Even after eight years together and seven years of marriage, the couple now must relearn cohabiting.
“When Chad walked in, as powerful as it was to see him, it was terrifying at the same time,” Tom said. “I had not had human contact with anyone for 14 months.”
They’ve fallen back into the comforting rhythm of snuggling on the couch with their “fur babies.”
Tom is learning to cook low-carb dishes appropriate for a diabetic.
“I’ve never seen so many vegetables fit into one pot,” said Chad, who feels like he’s healing from being able to sleep in his bed and eat home-cooked meals.
The dogs are ecstatic. “I woke up the other day and Gus was on top of my head like a yarmulke,” Chad said.
He’s eager to get back to work, although with his many debilitating conditions, it is not clear when that could happen. “I can’t tell you how much I miss being at the bedside and helping people to feel better,” he said.
Tom, who ironically ended up being the healthier one, is filled with gratitude.
“All of Chad’s commitment to keep me safe during the pandemic— what a love story,” he said.
iris lilies
4-21-21, 11:39am
Immediately hit the pay wall, but even the article title is so sad!
I can scroll around the pay wall. The wall is still “there” but I can scroll and read underneath.
Jp1, that is a sad story i deed about those two men.
Hopefully Chad feels well enough that they can get out and work in their garden. In the pre-covid world every spring they posted a feast of gorgeous pictures from it on facebook.
What a bittersweet story; so glad they survived and are all together again.
How often is a story like Chad and Tom replicated? So sad, but great that they made it to the other side relatively intact but with long-term effects of COVID and financial devastation.
I had a high school friend on FB who used to post "pun-ny" memes all the time. He was such a funny, nice guy. He was really, really looking forward to our 50th high school reunion which should have been in September, but which was postponed due to COVID. Jay pushed to reschedule that reunion as soon as possible--he loved coming back to CT from KY and seeing all his old friends.
We heard he passed away a few months back. I thought it was cancer--he had been battling prostate cancer. But I learned it was COVID. I got his address so I could send his wife a sympathy card, but before I got it in the mail, I learned that his wife had just died of COVID, too.
It's shocking how it has changed lives all over the world. So sad.
Teacher Terry
4-21-21, 3:20pm
So many sad stories.
So many sad stories.
Indeed. And a reminder to those of us who are lucky enough to not have a sad story so close to home that a lot of people really have been suffering and hurting because of this pandemic.
rosarugosa
4-21-21, 6:23pm
Thanks for sharing the text of the article, JP. Truly a sad story, but glad they came through it.
I vaccinated a patient last week who shared this. She's had covid twice. She's a long-hauler. She hasn't been able to work for 5 months as she is too debilitated. She has an acquaintance who experienced long-hauler's resolving about 3 weeks after her 2nd vaccine so she was very hopeful!
The anecdotal stories we get as vaccinators are amazing. This is just one.
iris lilies
4-22-21, 4:21am
I vaccinated a patient last week who shared this. She's had covid twice. She's a long-hauler. She hasn't been able to work for 5 months as she is too debilitated. She has an acquaintance who experienced long-hauler's resolving about 3 weeks after her 2nd vaccine so she was very hopeful!
The anecdotal stories we get as vaccinators are amazing. This is just one.
that is interesting!
happystuff
4-22-21, 10:00am
Thanks for sharing the article. So sad, yet so motivating - such love!!!
Our governor is still on a power trip. After an infectious disease specialist from a leading hospital in the state wrote an article in The New England Journal of Medicine stating the outdoor mask mandate should be dropped, did he drop it? No.
After the CDC said the same thing, did he drop it? Not for several days. He just couldn't bear to give up the control right away. Pathetic.
iris lilies
4-29-21, 1:23pm
Our governor is still on a power trip. After an infectious disease specialist from a leading hospital in the state wrote an article in The New England Journal of Medicine stating the outdoor mask mandate should be dropped, did he drop it? No.
After the CDC said the same thing, did he drop it? Not for several days. He just couldn't bear to give up the control right away. Pathetic.
The CDC dropped outdoor mask recommendations this week. I don’t think my city has dropped that yet. But I don’t worry about that I think it’s ridiculous that there’s any kind of directive for me to wear a mask outdoors, that’s stupid and I wont be doing it.
I WILL be avoiding close up talk with humans outdoors, however.
On the way home from an outdoor dinner last night we ran into a neighbor and had a chat, maskless. Even though I had a mask around my neck because I had gone to this restaurant and thought I might need it if had to dart indoors. Anyway. I talked to the neighbor I ran into, but I stood 6 feet apart I stood in the street he stood on the sidewalk and we had our necessary conversation. It’s not hard.
rosarugosa
4-29-21, 3:36pm
Our governor is still on a power trip. After an infectious disease specialist from a leading hospital in the state wrote an article in The New England Journal of Medicine stating the outdoor mask mandate should be dropped, did he drop it? No.
After the CDC said the same thing, did he drop it? Not for several days. He just couldn't bear to give up the control right away. Pathetic.
But he did update the mandate just a few days after the CDC updated their guidance. I think the CDC updated on Tues and our change goes into effect tomorrow, so 3 days later. That doesn't seem so bad to me.
That doesn't seem so bad to me.
It isn't. But it doesn't fit into the "my governor is an evil dictator" narrative. Following CDC guidance for vaccine priorities also didn't fit in with the Evil Dictator narrative.
But he did update the mandate just a few days after the CDC updated their guidance. I think the CDC updated on Tues and our change goes into effect tomorrow, so 3 days later. That doesn't seem so bad to me.
He should have done it the same day. The mandate should never have been put in place to begin with. Having to wear a mask when you're walking in the middle of the woods with no one else around was always stupid. He removed "when you can't socially distance" from the original outdoor mandate to make it ridiculous, yet he himself did not follow it and took off his mask at news conferences so he would look better on TV.
Wow, sounds just terrible....
ApatheticNoMore
4-29-21, 6:47pm
Stalin-Hitler
I am not a fan of the royal family but they did wear masks at Prince Philip's funeral rather than say, "Do as I say not as I do or I will fine you $300."
rosarugosa
4-29-21, 7:08pm
He should have done it the same day. The mandate should never have been put in place to begin with. Having to wear a mask when you're walking in the middle of the woods with no one else around was always stupid. He removed "when you can't socially distance" from the original outdoor mandate to make it ridiculous, yet he himself did not follow it and took off his mask at news conferences so he would look better on TV.
If a woman takes off her mask in the woods and nobody sees it, did it really happen?
If a woman takes off her mask in the woods and nobody sees it, did it really happen?
If there's a wildlife cam and she gets caught on it ... sure.
iris lilies
4-29-21, 7:40pm
Wow, sounds just terrible....
For the record, I think a mask mandate for being out doors is generally silly. It throws shade on all other gubmntal recommendations for their veracity.
There is no “ One size fits all” so your hikes in the PNW woods where you do not meet a human in 3 hours may be maskless, and crowded running paths in NYC Central Park maybe should be populated with masked runners.
When I read CDC directives, I did not see this distinction. The great outdoors in Nanny G’s is One Concept and One Space.
For the record, I think a mask mandate for being out doors is generally silly. It throws shade on all other gubmntal recommendations for their veracity.
My "terrible" was more concerning state and county level governments not immediately instantly changing their protocols the very instant the CDC issues a new guideline. Because, you know, there's no friction associated with doing things in the real world :-)
As far as masks and the great outdoors, well, people are being silly in many ways...
But he did update the mandate just a few days after the CDC updated their guidance. I think the CDC updated on Tues and our change goes into effect tomorrow, so 3 days later. That doesn't seem so bad to me.
It's all so political. Supposedly Baker had to consult with his health experts before making changes, then when he saw New York is fully reopening a month earlier than Massachusetts he had to rush out and make a statement that we might be able to open earlier because he doesn't want to be one upped by Andrew Cuomo. No days worth of consultations there even though throwing bars, nightclubs, and similar businesses wide open is much more consequential than whether people walk around by themselves outdoors.
ApatheticNoMore
4-29-21, 8:07pm
Well it's about money. In the course of the pandemic, they have insufficiently controlled anything that might interfere with business, while forbidding non-profitable activities with equivalent or even much less risk. If people are too be sacrificed, it must be to the economy!
We live on the NH Maine border and shop in New Hampshire, and I heard that today is the last day for the mask mandate, although individual businesses may still require it. So starting at midnight tonight, no more masks, supposedly.
We shall see.
I was curious about other states that lifted mask mandate and found out all the chain stores still seem to require them. Here is an Aarp article about this:
https://www.aarp.org/health/healthy-living/info-2020/retailers-require-face-masks-coronavirus.html
happystuff
4-30-21, 10:27am
Even if/when mandates are lifted, I will be using my common sense and will wear masks where I feel necessary to continue to protect both myself and others. I know the subjective part here is "common sense" and that not everyone utilizes theirs.
yes, I think many people feel as you do, happystuff.
The middle of last week the Feds announced this coming Tuesday flights from India will stop. After 9/11 planes were immediately grounded but they don't take covid outbreaks seriously, waiting a week before doing anything. The Indian variant has already been found in the US due to this delay. Our leaders suck!
I will ditch my mask as soon as I can, simply due to my hot flashes. They’ve gotten bad. Doesn’t matter what kind of mask I wear, I’m red faced and sweating within 20 min of non-stop wearing a mask. I’m not anti-mask. I’m just hot as hell.
Teacher Terry
5-2-21, 11:56am
Traded, I had a long, miserable menopause journey so I totally understand. I got so I had to shower at night because I would sweat so much if I tried to blow dry my hair in the morning. In winter I wore tank tops under my shirt so I could take off my shirt at work when sweating. I had the heat vent closed and sealed over with cardboard. I had to drive to work with my windows down in the morning. Mornings were horrible.
Yesterday morning at church (2 hour service), after I did a reading (without mask) I just left it off. I was sitting at the front and off to the side. Some people were giving me looks, but I don’t care. I sit right next to a stone wall I can hug - and do. Today is my last service for a good while due to diving. Hopefully when I’m back in the fall, masks will be gone. I’m full vaxxed. Most of the people from church I know are as well. I’m going to grocery pickup so I don’t have to wear a mask in the store. The only thing I have to go in for is my allergy meds which have to be signed for at pharmacy.
At least at work you only have to wear it away from your desk or when close to someone. Those are quick bits.
I heard today on the news there is a big uptick in child marriages in India due to covid. Families are selling off girls as young as 12 because they can no longer afford to feed them.
I imagine many folks here won't give a rat's behind about these poor girls, forced to drop out of school to marry grown men, and with their whole lives ahead of them harmed, so long as the economic restrictions in place prolong the lives of sick older Americans by weeks, months, or a small number of years.
And since my post last November India continues to suffer, and Americans here who like to beat their breasts about anything that impacts them are once again silent about the impact on folks who, as one of my critics put it, are on another continent.
Where is the handwringing, the panic, the fear?
And since my post last November India continues to suffer, and Americans here who like to beat their breasts about anything that impacts them are once again silent about the impact on folks who, as one of my critics put it, are on another continent.
Where is the handwringing, the panic, the fear?
Okay, and since last November when you posted, YOU have done what in response to this?
Teacher Terry
5-3-21, 1:25am
Letting older people here die is not going to save anyone in India. Yes it’s sad how many in that country live and in many other countries.
Letting older people here die is not going to save anyone in India. Yes it’s sad how many in that country live and in many other countries.
I think both situations are very bad, and neither situation causes the other. So I think it best to separate them and look at them as two separate bad situations,not one as causal for the other.
iris lilies
5-3-21, 10:09am
I think both situations are very bad, and neither situation causes the other. So I think it best to separate them and look at them as two separate bad situations,not one as causal for the other.
It almost sounds like, Tybee, you are saying my mother was wrong all those years of my childhood. When she said I should think of all of those starving children in India and eat my dinner, she had no real point!
haha just kidding you. And my mom never made that time worn argument.
One of the two owners of my new company is Indian. We just sent out a shipment of 50 O2 concentrators. The company has been working with a charity in India and built a 100 bed hospital within the past couple of years.
And the US government is sending vaccines to India, so we are doing something.
More than that. Heard on the radio news this morning that a military cargo plane went over with a lot of supplies, including O2.
That's good news, Tradd. The stories emerging about desperate attempts to get oxygen there are hard to hear.
Desantis just signed a pro-covid bill that bans localities or individual businesses from trying to keep people safe so maybe we’ll get to also be concerned about Florida.
ApatheticNoMore
5-3-21, 1:58pm
Desantis just signed a pro-covid bill that bans localities or individual businesses from trying to keep people safe so maybe we’ll get to also be concerned about Florida.
The difference is Florida has vaccines. The problem in India is not "la la la, I don't want a vaccine". They don't have enough vaccines.
But it's all old people so who cares yeppej would say. But only about 5% of the population of India is 65 and older.
Teacher Terry
5-3-21, 2:29pm
2 of my sons vacationed in India and said while it’s a beautiful country the poverty is unimaginable. The water and air are very polluted. I have no desire to visit.
Desantis just signed a pro-covid bill that bans localities or individual businesses from trying to keep people safe so maybe we’ll get to also be concerned about Florida.I believe his executive order simply cancels all existing covid orders and bans businesses from requiring a covid passport to enter. So, it essentially opens Florida up effective July 1st, which I believe is the same time New York plans to open. Is New York pro covid?
Here in Ohio the plan is to re-open the state once covid cases reach a 50 per 100,000 person mark. We're currently at just under 150 per 100,000 so we may possibly open even earlier than Florida. Yahoo!
I believe his executive order simply cancels all existing covid orders and bans businesses from requiring a covid passport to enter. So, it essentially opens Florida up effective July 1st, which I believe is the same time New York plans to open. Is New York pro covid?
Here in Ohio the plan is to re-open the state once covid cases reach a 50 per 100,000 person mark. We're currently at just under 150 per 100,000 so we may possibly open even earlier than Florida. Yahoo!
Yahoo! huh? I understood herd immunity to be over 70%?
2 of my sons vacationed in India and said while it’s a beautiful country the poverty is unimaginable. The water and air are very polluted. I have no desire to visit.
It is a beautiful place and, yes, very poor and polluted. Visiting there changed my perspective and I am very happy I went.
The difference between Florida and New York are that the Florida law states July 1st but the desantis exec order states open everything today. Secondly I’m not aware that New York forbids businesses requiring vaccination of either employees or customers. The devil is in the details, as is often the case. And in this case the devil is in Tallahassee not Albany.
The difference between Florida and New York are that the Florida law states July 1st but the desantis exec order states open everything today. Aren't New York, New Jersey and Connecticut doing the same in just under two weeks? Maybe you can bring us up to speed on the details and differences?
Probably the most significant difference is that NY is creating a vaccine passport so that businesses who choose to will have the freedom to keep their employees and other customers safer while Florida has outlawed vaccine passports because they believe the freedom to risk other people’s health is more important. I haven’t looked but would be surprised to learn that CT and/or NJ were planning to follow the Florida model.
I wonder when Florida is going to make it illegal for businesses to require that people where shoes and shirts when entering their establishment?
ApatheticNoMore
5-3-21, 5:22pm
2 weeks also of course matters as vaccines have not been widely available for long, so until everyone who wants a vaccine has had a second shot more or less and that is a matter of timing.
Probably the most significant difference is that NY is creating a vaccine passport so that businesses who choose to will have the freedom to keep their employees and other customers safer while Florida has outlawed vaccine passports because they believe the freedom to risk other people’s health is more important.
So NY is creating a passport but not requiring its usage. I wonder how many businesses will refuse to sell products or provide services to anyone without one? I'm betting none outside of perhaps school districts.
Do you think we should have a nationwide law requiring vaccine passports in order to do civic things, like perhaps voting?
Why are you assuming that only school districts will be interested in keeping people safe? Have you seen data to that effect?
Anecdotally I can think of at least one person whose employer required him to get vaccinated in order to start traveling for his sales related job again. As a manager he didn't think he could do his job effectively from home forever so he begrudgingly got vaccinated. Other than him, and I don't actually know him, he's a friend of a friend, I don't know of anyone else being "forced" to get vaccinated but that may be because most of my friends have been vaccinated without anyone requiring them to.
Why are you assuming that only school districts will be interested in keeping people safe? Have you seen data to that effect?
No, I've seen no data to that effect, just some of the emails the American Federation of Teachers sent to the CDC in their successful efforts to influence their school opening recommendations. Powerful teachers union influenced CDC on school reopenings, emails show (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers-union-collaborated-with-cdc-on-school-reopening-emails/)
I don't know of anyone else being "forced" to get vaccinated but that may be because most of my friends have been vaccinated without anyone requiring them to. Me neither, that's why I'm leery of reports suggesting rather high percentages of specific groups refusing to be vaccinated. But even if they are true, I'm not in favor of Vaccine Passports, people who are vaccinated are relatively safe from harm and we don't need governments to protect the remainder from themselves. The usage of those passports is antithetical to a free society.
The libertarian in me recoils at the thought of some sort of registry or travel documents, especially at the national level. I can envision them extending into all kinds of unsavory areas “for the public good”. On the other hand if some employer or other party wants to know my inoculation status, and I agree, I can simply show the card I got at the time. No need to submit to the whims of some bureaucracy.
A hospital in Houston is requiring all its employees get covid vaccines.
A hospital in Houston is requiring all its employees get covid vaccines.
My fire/rescue department requires vaccination if we are to continue to perform many of our functions.
The libertarian in me recoils at the thought of some sort of registry or travel documents, especially at the national level. I can envision them extending into all kinds of unsavory areas “for the public good”. On the other hand if some employer or other party wants to know my inoculation status, and I agree, I can simply show the card I got at the time. No need to submit to the whims of some bureaucracy.
So you’re against passports and the requirement of a valid drivers license to get on an airplane for non international travel?
No, I've seen no data to that effect, just some of the emails the American Federation of Teachers sent to the CDC in their successful efforts to influence their school opening recommendations. Powerful teachers union influenced CDC on school reopenings, emails show (nypost.com) (https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers-union-collaborated-with-cdc-on-school-reopening-emails/)
Me neither, that's why I'm leery of reports suggesting rather high percentages of specific groups refusing to be vaccinated. But even if they are true, I'm not in favor of Vaccine Passports, people who are vaccinated are relatively safe from harm and we don't need governments to protect the remainder from themselves. The usage of those passports is antithetical to a free society.[/COLOR]
From what I’ve read about the vaccine verification system in NY the state isn’t going to be mandating vaccination, they are simply providing a service for businesses that wish to implement vaccine requirements. Anyone who wants to be a customer or employee of those businesses will have an easy way to provide verification of vaccination.
I have no idea where things stand at this point but a month ago the ceo of my employer, in an email regarding office reopening, mentioned that it was undecided if vaccination will be required of people who wish to return to the office. If a modest sized commercial insurance company is considering this than surely many businesses are. An easy way to provided trusted proof seems like a useful function of the government. Every state already has an organization dedicated to maintaining an accurate database of info on the majority of it’s citizens.
From what I’ve read about the vaccine verification system in NY the state isn’t going to be mandating vaccination, they are simply providing a service for businesses that wish to implement vaccine requirements.
I am aware of several local businesses that intend to only offer their services to vaccinated individuals.
So you’re against passports and the requirement of a valid drivers license to get on an airplane for non international travel?
I don’t have a problem with providing identification establishing I am who I say I am to board a plane, vote or pick up a prescription. But I do object to making which diseases I’m vaccinated for literally a federal issue.
I don’t have a problem with providing identification establishing I am who I say I am to board a plane, vote or pick up a prescription. But I do object to making which diseases I’m vaccinated for literally a federal issue.
How is it literally, or even figuratively, a federal issue if it's an individual business that has that requirement?
How is it literally, or even figuratively, a federal issue if it's an individual business that has that requirement?
It’s not. It’s a problem with government compiling more information about me.
It’s not. It’s a problem with government compiling more information about me.
You’ve obviously never gone through a background check by the Feds! I had one for my customs broker license. Fingerprinted for that, too. Plus multiple background checks and fingerprints for my concealed carry permit/FOID card.
It doesn’t bother me.
You’ve obviously never gone through a background check by the Feds! I had one for my customs broker license. Fingerprinted for that, too. Plus multiple background checks and fingerprints for my concealed carry permit/FOID card.
It doesn’t bother me.
I went through all the rigamarole for a TS clearance back in my military days. But that was for a purpose I saw some value to. I don’t happen to think giving up a bit more privacy with regard to which shots I’ve had is especially worth it.
I went through all the rigamarole for a TS clearance back in my military days. But that was for a purpose I saw some value to. I don’t happen to think giving up a bit more privacy with regard to which shots I’ve had is especially worth it.
Do you honestly think they don’t know? The government already knows everything. Including the last time you drove down whatever freeway is near you. This fact is why Edward Snowden now lives elsewhere.
Teacher Terry
5-3-21, 10:20pm
I think many countries aren’t going to let people in without a vaccine passport.
Do you honestly think they don’t know? The government already knows everything. Including the last time you drove down whatever freeway is near you. This fact is why Edward Snowden now lives elsewhere.
I honestly think they don’t know. And even if I were paranoid enough to believe they did, I wouldn’t want to make it any easier for them.
I honestly think they don’t know. And even if I were paranoid enough to believe they did, I wouldn’t want to make it any easier for them.
Facebook knows. And if facebook knows so does the government.
If you don't want the government to know then just don't sign up for an optional vaccine passport. But live with the consequences when you get denied entry to businesses that prefer that their customers have concern for their other customers. Free will and all that.
What does "vaccine passport" mean, precisely?
What does "vaccine passport" mean, precisely?
It seems to depend on one's perspective. Personally I take it to mean something similar to what NY state has planned to implement. A government built system that will record it when people voluntarily submit evidence that they have been vaccinated so that they can then patronize businesses that choose of their own free will to restrict patronage to vaccinated people. Those businesses will trust that the database is accurate and free of fraudulently claimed vaccination, which seems more rational than 400,000 businesses each individually having to create a system for verifying vaccination.
Other people seem to have an idea that the government is going to get all "papers please" and use these systems to prevent people from voting or walking down the street or whatever. But those concerns seem, to me at least, about as warranted as the people who have equated wearing a mask to the grocery store as almost identical to the oppression of Jews during the holocaust.
I suspect that a lot of the people who claim fear of a "papers please" government are actually more afraid that if the government creates an effective voluntary system of tracking vaccination that a lot of businesses will chose to require vaccination for anyone who wants to patronize them so they would prefer that confirming vaccination be as difficult as possible so as to thwart the free will of businesses that want to keep everyone safe.
So, a sort of "...and that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name" thing? :-)
So, a sort of "...and that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name" thing? :-)
Since it's all private businesses that seem to care, perhaps this is a sign that capitalism is a tool of the devil? :-)
When I got my vaccine another recipient was asking, "Should I laminate my card?" The person was told "No. There are spots for booster shots. Also you don't need to carry your card around. I am entering your information in the Federal database. That's what matters. Anyone can buy a counterfeit card on the internet."
As others have said working for the government requires a fairly extensive background check. I have had at least two. They even came and interviewed my husband which was pretty funny. Took months. I have a passport, Global Entry, etc. Adding a vaccine part to it is fine with me if it allows me to travel outside the US. Or even to use some inside the US facilities.
Privacy? Give me a break. If you use a computer, you have no privacy. Family DNA will track you down.
happystuff
5-4-21, 11:18am
We got Federal, state and local background checks for every adoption. Have also had them done for the military and various jobs. Thing is, if you have and use a cell phone, your info is "out there". LOL.
I think there are times government is justified in asking for and maintaining data, and times when it is not. I personally don’t see the necessity of signing up for a new bio-surveillance regime. I don’t buy the Facebook panopticon theory or the omniscient deep state theory, so I don’t think it’s a waste of time standing up for privacy rights.
Nor am I convinced that most businesses will soon be turning away custom from people not in some medical apartheid database, so I don’t think that particular threat carries much weight.
My assessment of the risks and benefits of some new surveillance system is that it simply isn’t justified. So I won’t be herded into that particular pen.
Just found a place closer to home (in MA) for my second dose (previously scheduled in NH) and during the signup process I was asked if I consent to share my information with my state "which is required by your state". No choice there.
My assessment of the risks and benefits of some new surveillance system is that it simply isn’t justified. So I won’t be herded into that particular pen.
Where does the "surveillance" come into this system, if they are simply issuing a verifiable proof of vaccination?
I also wonder how many people signed up for their vaccine through some sort of government web site like myturn.ca.gov as I did. The state obviously already knows that I had my vaccine. The worry that somehow the state issuing vaccine passports will result in nefarious use of the knowledge of who is vaccinated is only possible if by nefarious one means "people can't easily lie and say they had it if they didn't."
ApatheticNoMore
5-4-21, 4:21pm
I also wonder how many people signed up for their vaccine through some sort of government web site like myturn.ca.gov as I did.
I don't know if was myturn but many vaccine sign ups seemed to be routed through a state website (directly to their webpage, I'm not implying anything remotely hidden)
I don’t have a problem with providing identification establishing I am who I say I am to board a plane, vote or pick up a prescription. But I do object to making which diseases I’m vaccinated for literally a federal issue.
Schools do this all the time.
Wonder if insurance companies will charge less for those vaccinated? There are ramifications, if not.
As others have said working for the government requires a fairly extensive background check. I have had at least two. They even came and interviewed my husband which was pretty funny. Took months. I have a passport, Global Entry, etc. Adding a vaccine part to it is fine with me if it allows me to travel outside the US. Or even to use some inside the US facilities.
Privacy? Give me a break. If you use a computer, you have no privacy. Family DNA will track you down.
Husband's info got hacked because of gov. My info has been also because of background checks. Gov is paying for credit monitoring for both of us. Interestingly, when we travel many times are assigned to pre-check and just slide right through. Is it because we travelled frequently or because of the background checks????
Airlines can assign you to precheck just because. We get it for business/first class. However, one time Precheck was slower than regular lines. A strange occurrence. Had to use handicapped once due to knee damage and walker use. Best transport thru airport ever.
More people are arguing for ditching the masks, but the dictators refuse to give up their fearmongering and control freakishness:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/06/ex-fda-chief-gottlieb-says-its-time-to-relax-indoor-mask-rules---but-the-cdc-isnt-so-sure/?sh=1afda0207f08
I am growing to especially despise Rachelle Walensky, who seems to wish we lived in a big brother surveillance state.
Masks would seem the opposite of a surveillance state. Otherwise why do bank robbers wear them?
I emailed the governor's constituent services line and selected the option to report someone for violating covid guidelines. I then reported that the governor is not and throughout the pandemic has not been wearing his mask at news conferences including ones held indoors. I said that being the case masks aren't that important, and that I know he doesn't care what ordinary people think, but he could at least listen to Scott Gottlieb and look across the state line at New Hampshire where the sky is not falling, and dump the mask mandate.
On the webpage where you go to submit your tattling there is a picture of the governor at a news conference, surrounded by people wearing masks, but not wearing one himself. It is indoors. Here is the link:
https://www.mass.gov/orgs/office-of-the-governor
Do you have the time/energy to accomplish anything other than raging at the world about masks? Surely there must be a better hobby for you somewhere.
rosarugosa
5-8-21, 10:24am
Masks would seem the opposite of a surveillance state. Otherwise why do bank robbers wear them?
lol
lol
Walensky seems disappointed that there is no easy way to surveil citizens to see if they are vaccinated, so she wants to mandate masks for vaccinated people although no one seriously believes there is any medical benefit. I wonder if she would like a big scarlet letter U for unvaccinated on people's foreheads.
If getting the J&J vaccine which is 66% effective means you are fully vaccinated, then the people who got one dose of Pfizer and Moderna at 87% effectiveness are also de facto fully vaccinated, even though they haven't got their second dose to get them up to 95%. None of these people should be forced to wear masks. It is stupid and sends the message that vaccines don't work.
happystuff
5-8-21, 10:52am
Walensky seems disappointed that there is no easy way to surveil citizens to see if they are vaccinated, so she wants to mandate masks for vaccinated people although no one seriously believes there is any medical benefit. I wonder if she would like a big scarlet letter U for unvaccinated on people's foreheads.
Last time you expressed this same idea, I thought the resolve was that the markings would be "NV" - not vaccinated. Hmmm... nobody seems to be taking you up on the idea, though. Maybe go find the tattling website to submit an occurrence of ignoring constituent suggestions.
ApatheticNoMore
5-8-21, 12:46pm
Mask mandates in indoor public places should continue until all who want a vaccine have one. But this implies not just availability of a second shot to all over 16 at least, but a few months of hard outreach to those for whom it is hard to get the vaccine (those without internet access, without a car, without the ability to take time off work or go out of their way for a shot). That does not mean converting those against vaccines. It means making vaccines readily available. As for offices or something well it's a much more limited demographic, so everything that applies to the broad broad demographic of the general public may not apply, employers could offer vaccinations at work to any who have not received them, and sure masks mandates could be dropped.
Last time you expressed this same idea, I thought the resolve was that the markings would be "NV" - not vaccinated. Hmmm... nobody seems to be taking you up on the idea, though. Maybe go find the tattling website to submit an occurrence of ignoring constituent suggestions.
Maybe we should go with FO- for fauci ouchie negative. Then if they change their mind and get it they could simply turn the negative into a plus.
Biden ran on 100 days of masking "to get the virus under control". Did he stop at 100 days when the virus was no longer out of control? No, he extended the mandate including standing outdoors on the deck of a ship until September 13th. He is a typical lying politician. I will not be taking the ferry to Block Island this summer.
Do you have the time/energy to accomplish anything other than raging at the world about masks? Surely there must be a better hobby for you somewhere.
I never thought I'd say this but I'm almost missing the days of talking endlessly about the student loan forgiveness program. :|(
Biden ran on 100 days of masking "to get the virus under control". Did he stop at 100 days when the virus was no longer out of control? No, he extended the mandate including standing outdoors on the deck of a ship until September 13th. He is a typical lying politician. I will not be taking the ferry to Block Island this summer.
Did it ever occur to you that he's operating under advice from the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and others on this matter? Trying to reverse our horrendous statistics and bring an end to this plague? Probably not. He's probably just "lying" to annoy you.
Did it ever occur to you that he's operating under advice from the CDC
When our Massachusetts governor is following CDC guidance, that's called "being a dictator".
A lot of governors are getting grief for trying to save their citizens--a thankless task for sure.
Did it ever occur to you that he's operating under advice from the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and others on this matter? Trying to reverse our horrendous statistics and bring an end to this plague? Probably not. He's probably just "lying" to annoy you.
The CDC said you don't need to wear masks outdoors if you can socially distance, but I can be on the deck of a ship with no overhang more than 6 feet away from others and I still have to wear a mask under Biden's Coast Guard regulations. Biden is also telling us we'll be in good shape by the Fourth of July but he extended this particular Federal mask mandate until the middle of September. I knew he was a hypocrite when Mr. Mask didn't wear one when he hugged people indoors who were not members of his household the night he won the election. I am glad I did not vote for him. I didn't vote for Trump either, but I bet with the majority of adults now vaccinated (half of a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine being more efficacious than a J&J vaccine) that we would now be back to normal instead of getting vaccinated for nothing.
I never thought I'd say this but I'm almost missing the days of talking endlessly about the student loan forgiveness program. :|(
Your wish is my command.
Your wish is my command.
ROFLOL! Quick, herbgeek - make more wishes!!!!
A lot of governors are getting grief for trying to save their citizens--a thankless task for sure.
I remember when I posted about my mother with dementia walking places and people told me you can't save someone, they have the right to live the way they want.
The governor of Minnesota acknowledged this by stating masks mandates will go away when 70% of people are vaccinated but regardless of vaccination rates by July 1st. If people don't want to get the vaccine those who do should not suffer forever, certainly not until mid September.
The mask fanatics are really grasping at straws. The latest I heard on the news today is that now, in May, we have to wear masks because there is a chance that there might be a surge in the winter. Dumb dumb dumb dumb.
The mask fanatics are really grasping at straws.
I see the anti-mask fanatics are STILL grasping at straws with the same old selfish whining behaviors. dumb dumb dumb dumb
Walensky seems disappointed that there is no easy way to surveil citizens to see if they are vaccinated, so she wants to mandate masks for vaccinated people although no one seriously believes there is any medical benefit.
Your continued beliefs in false narratives is becoming admirable. I recommend reading science not conspiracy theories and hoax loving anti-maskers.
I remember when I posted about my mother with dementia walking places and people told me you can't save someone, they have the right to live the way they want..
Which is very different from having the right to KILL others!
So given the fact in Connecticut 70% of people have one dose of the vaccine
And given that a first dose of Moderna and Pfizer is more effective than the J&J vaccine
Therefore given that Connecticut has achieved herd immunity
Why the hell is their mask mandate still in place?
Dumb dumb dumb dumb.
So given the fact in Connecticut 70% of people have one dose of the vaccine
And given that a first dose of Moderna and Pfizer is more effective than the J&J vaccine
Therefore given that Connecticut has achieved herd immunity
Why the hell is their mask mandate still in place?
Dumb dumb dumb dumb.
You refuse to listen, read or research. I refuse to repeat.
So given the fact in Connecticut 70% of people have one dose of the vaccine
And given that a first dose of Moderna and Pfizer is more effective than the J&J vaccine
Therefore given that Connecticut has achieved herd immunity
Why the hell is their mask mandate still in place?
Dumb dumb dumb dumb.
Try reading what the vaccines actually DO for the individuals who get them! THAT is why the mask mandates are still in place. You and the repeated use of the word "dumb" is very appropriate.
There is a new breed of science denying anti-vaxxer out there. They aren't against getting the vaccine, they just think it doesn't work and doesn't produce herd immunity and that we should wear masks forever (we used loosely, these are some of the governors who don't wear masks so they look good on TV, and ordinary people who socialized maskless with those outside their household at the height of the pandemic by invoking the word pod).
Walensky is one of these and Fauci has started hinting her position is off base.
My prediction is Biden will want a political win and Fauci will prevail over Walensky. I sure hope so.
The seven day average case count in Connecticut is 498 new infections per day. How exactly is that herd immunity?
The seven day average case count in Connecticut is 498 new infections per day. How exactly is that herd immunity?
Right? With an average daily US death rate of just 667, herd immunity has certainly arrived:confused:
What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.
What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.I don't think there's any real consensus on that, especially if you're looking at number of infections or deaths. From everything I've read it appears we'll reach herd immunity when somewhere between 60 to 85% of the population have either been immunized or developed natural antibodies through prior infection, and I haven't seen percentages anywhere which take naturally developed antibodies into account.
When I hear people talk about daily or weekly infection or death rates I wonder how that compares to pre-Covid numbers for infection or death by other types of virus that Covid has now apparently usurped. I haven't been able to find that type of comparison anywhere so I think quoting numbers without comparison doesn't really tell us much.
What kind of statistic would be an indication of herd immunity? I assume it would be some small number(s) but not zero.
I'm sure different people measure it different ways. But case numbers are not the most reliable indicator.
1) There are many people now self-testing at home and those numbers are not reported, and are largely negative.
2) There are false positives.
3) There are people who may test positive but are asymptomatic, with no impact from the virus.
Better indicators are numbers of hospitalizations, patients in the ICU, and deaths, though death numbers have been manipulated, at least in my state, to inflate the numbers. For instance, I believe I have posted before about a coworker whose father died of old age and the medical examiner was forced to change the cause of death to covid because there were covid cases in his assisted living facility. He did not die of this, but because of this false label even the immediate family was not allowed to attend the burial in the VA cemetery. There has been lots of paranoia and false information out regarding this virus.
I don't think there's any real consensus on that, especially if you're looking at number of infections or deaths. From everything I've read it appears we'll reach herd immunity when somewhere between 60 to 85% of the population have either been immunized or developed natural antibodies through prior infection, and I haven't seen percentages anywhere which take naturally developed antibodies into account.
When I hear people talk about daily or weekly infection or death rates I wonder how that compares to pre-Covid numbers for infection or death by other types of virus that Covid has now apparently usurped. I haven't been able to find that type of comparison anywhere so I think quoting numbers without comparison doesn't really tell us much.
CDC data is super easy to find.
3771
We’ll only know what constitutes herd immunity with hindsight. My guess though is that a state with just over 1% of the US population having almost 500 cases per day is not herd immunity. If it does that would mean that the US as a whole would average over 47,000 cases per day or 17 million per year indefinitely. Compared to other diseases that doesn’t sound like herd immunity. In the US Polio dropped from 35,000 cases in 1953 to 5600 by 1957 to 161 by 1961 thanks to widespread vaccinations. Measles, when a major vaccine push happened in the late 70’s dropped 80% between 1981 and 1982. Cutting cases of covid from roundly 36 million per year to 17 million per year would not seem to be indicative of herd immunity.
It is difficult to know for sure because of differences by state as far as mitigation measures go but strictly by the number of cases California would seem to be closer to herd immunity than CT with a seven day average of 1,878 cases for a population ten times CT’s. As would Alabama with a 7 day average of 342 cases and 5 million population. As well as a variety of other states.
So herd immunity would be the point at which a sufficient percentage of the population has natural or vaccinated immunity that the aggregate likelihood of the disease being transmitted from one person to the other declines to some very low probability?
I heard a story on NPR about a person who died because she refused to get the vaccine. The reporter described covid as now being a preventable illness. I think that is true in the US.
Meanwhile I checked in with a guy I used to work with who has family in India. He told me the outbreak should peak there this month. So that is the natural immunity route.
You would think people would choose the vaccine route but if they don't that's on them and the rest of us shouldn't be restricted for years or decades until all of them who are vulnerable die off.
So herd immunity would be the point at which a sufficient percentage of the population has natural or vaccinated immunity that the aggregate likelihood of the disease being transmitted from one person to the other declines to some very low probability?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity?wprov=sfti1
My state has now reached the 70% herd immunity level but we are still stuck wearing masks - except of course the governor, who even indoors removes his so he looks better at his news conferences. And I've noticed there's no plexiglass in front of his mouth either. I reported him for violating covid guidelines but I have not received a response.
My state has now reached the 70% herd immunity level but we are still stuck wearing masks - except of course the governor, who even indoors removes his so he looks better at his news conferences. And I've noticed there's no plexiglass in front of his mouth either. I reported him for violating covid guidelines but I have not received a response.
Does that 70% have any scientific basis behind it, or is it just a number the President threw out because we were on track to get there anyway?
Does that 70% have any scientific basis behind it, or is it just a number the President threw out because we were on track to get there anyway?
I heard the number before he was in office.
or is it just a number the President threw out because we were on track to get there anyway?
It depends on the infectivity of the virus as to what the actual percentage is- its not an across the board number. Though you probably already knew that and were just politicizing.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1
It depends on the infectivity of the virus as to what the actual percentage is- its not an across the board number. Though you probably already knew that and were just politicizing.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1
I’d only ever heard the 70% mentioned by the President. If it’s not an across-the-board stat, who does it apply to?
I’d only ever heard the 70% mentioned by the President. If it’s not an across-the-board stat, who does it apply to?
70% is a guess as to how many people need to be in inoculated before the spread of the virus will steadily decrease. We will only know the actual number once we hit it and case counts steadily and mostly continually fall. It won’t happen uniformly across the country because different areas will have different levels of vaccination.
As new more infectious variants continue to develop the number of vaccinated people needed to have herd immunity will increase.
The other thing people often seem to forget when discussing the percentage of people needing vaccination to achieve herd immunity is that the percentages quoted of vaccinations usually only count the percent over age 16. For instance in my county 85% have had one shot and 71% are fully vaccinated. But that ignores that 45,000 of the county’s 255,000 people are under 16. When you add in the kids the number of people vaccinated are 70% one shot and only 50% fully vaccinated.
70% is a guess as to how many people need to be in inoculated before the spread of the virus will steadily decrease. We will only know the actual number once we hit it and case counts steadily and mostly continually fall. It won’t happen uniformly across the country because different areas will have different levels of vaccination.
As new more infectious variants continue to develop the number of vaccinated people needed to have herd immunity will increase.
So the 70% is more of an estimated inflection point where things start getting better, than a sort of end stage herd immunity? That makes sense to me.
So the 70% is more of an estimated inflection point where things start getting better, than a sort of end stage herd immunity? That makes sense to me.
Exactly. The estimate of R0 for covid, the average number of infections each infected person causes in others, is believed to be roughly 3. Without vaccinations or other mitigation efforts (masks, distancing, limiting gatherings, etc) the disease explodes across the population because that’s an increditbly high R0. One infected person infects threw more, who infect nine more, who infect 27 more, etc. The flu, by comparison is thought to have an R0 of about 1.5.
Herd immunity happens when the number of people available to get infected due to not being vaccinated is low enough that each infected person infects, on average, less than one person. With an R0 of 3 that means that roughly 2/3 of the population needs to be vaccinated so that 2 of the 3 people the infected person would have infected won’t get sick.
Does that 70% have any scientific basis behind it, or is it just a number the President threw out because we were on track to get there anyway?
It depends on the value of R_nought for the disease in question.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0f/Herd_immunity_threshold_vs_r0.svg/1280px-Herd_immunity_threshold_vs_r0.svg.png
Note that some of the new variants have a higher R_nought....
Also consider that unvaccinated people serve as an R&D lab/ecosystem for the virus to develop more virulent strains...
Further consider that dorks who refuse to social distance and wear masks are helping breed a better virus...
Frankly, I'm about to withdraw from any form of public service, I've given up.
Our narrative in this country for a long time has been in favor of safety over freedom "if it saves just one life it's worth it". It's okay to take away people's freedom forever if it keeps one person from dying from covid according to some. We can gut our economy. We can run up huge deficits. We can live in fear of hypothetical variants (rather than shut down international borders to prevent them getting here). And apparently now we need to all put our lives on hold forever for people who refuse to get the vaccine. Canvassers are going door to door trying to convince them - I don't think there's more we can do in my state.
It's okay to take away people's freedom forever if it keeps one person from dying from covid according to some.
I think you are the only person I've heard issue that opinion.
None of the professionals I work with, who have managed the response in my County, which has had some of the best results on Earth, have ever muttered such a thing. But what do they know, they just do this for a living, and have training and experience.
Carry on.
ApatheticNoMore
5-11-21, 1:10pm
Perhaps it helps to realize that it really doesn't matter very much what some holdouts from the vaccine in the U.S. do (except to endanger those who really can't take vaccines etc.) so long as the virus is spreading uncontrolled in much of the rest of the world, that could breed a better virus itself. And international travel to the U.S. has never, will never it seems, be shut down. And are we even testing arrivals? I doubt they are quarantined. And much of the rest of the world is predicted to be vaccinated in 2023 or something! Well that doesn't sound very fast.
So someone in the U.S. refuses because Tucker Carlson or something, yea but solve India or that's a far bigger breeding ground anyway, and humanitarian crisis, that too. When the rests of the world has access to the vaccine then holdouts will be the bottleneck preventing elimination. Of course vaccines also continue development. So we may well get vaccines that handle all variants even if we don't have them now. I'm not convinced it needs to be a yearly shot but we'll see what is available.
ApatheticNoMore
5-11-21, 1:25pm
Our narrative in this country for a long time has been in favor of safety over freedom "if it saves just one life it's worth it".
lol, if that was true it wouldn't be so car-centric. think about it. We accept a lot of deaths for it.
It's okay to take away people's freedom forever if it keeps one person from dying from covid according to some.
but the BS you talk about is not how actual political freedom is defined, it's about right to protest etc., it's not about the right to open or go to restaurants in a pandemic. Noone wants your BS "freedom". Freedom's just another word for dying in a pandemic. Bah, get if off me.
I mean sure there are places where life is very cheap indeed, probably way overpopulated, and poor, and so it's taken as a given. I didn't know that was what we were aspiring to.
I listen to the BBC a lot online. The local UK oriented stations, not the World Service. Radio 5 Live is their talk radio station. Anyway, I might have mentioned last year that when there was talk about relaxing some restrictions, more than a few people called up and said on the air that anyone who wanted to get back to even a semblance of regular life was a “murderer.” So SOME people seem to think that having a destroyed economy, people’s livelihoods destroyed, etc., are worthless if the plague is still out there.
Frankly, I still think international travel bans should have been continued.
I think there’s a sort of freedom/responsibility spectrum people fall on. Freedom isn’t functional in any reasonable sense unless we accept the personal responsibility that comes with it. At one end of the spectrum are the people who childishly want what they want with no regard to any consequences. At the other are people so fearful of consequences that they decide individual liberty is a luxury we can’t afford.
I think most people are mature enough to act on the best advice without a gun to their head, and that the deliberately obtuse science deniers and the pecksniff scolds are both outliers. Otherwise this country would either be impossible to live in or not worth living in.
Frankly, I'm about to withdraw from any form of public service, I've given up.
That would be a pity. Understandable perhaps, but still a pity.
Think of the people who aren’t dangerously stupid.
"Our narrative in this country for a long time has been in favor of safety over freedom "if it saves just one life it's worth it"."
Oh, please. We had nine mass shootings last week and no one batted an eye.
"Our narrative in this country for a long time has been in favor of safety over freedom "if it saves just one life it's worth it"."
Oh, please. We had nine mass shootings last week and no one batted an eye.
And over the last seven days an average of 650 covid deaths every day. That works out to another 237,000 dead people if it stays that high for another year. But some people are trying to claim that we’re already at herd immunity. So absurd.
States like Minnesota and West Virginia are giving people advance warning mask mandates will go away. That way if this bothers them they can get off the fence and get vaccinated. Makes sense to me.
"Our narrative in this country for a long time has been in favor of safety over freedom "if it saves just one life it's worth it"."
Oh, please. We had nine mass shootings last week and no one batted an eye.
We have so called mass shootings all the time in Chicago. No one but the locals gives a sh*t.
I can't talk on my phone in the car on speaker phone, even though studies show all the buttons people have to press to take or initiate a handsfree call on bluetooth are more distracting than what I did for years, because heaven forbid one person die in a car accident, everyone's freedom must be curtailed. It is not just with covid.
I can't talk on my phone in the car on speaker phone, even though studies show all the buttons people have to press to take or initiate a handsfree call on bluetooth are more distracting than what I did for years, because heaven forbid one person die in a car accident, everyone's freedom must be curtailed. It is not just with covid.
Wow, you are certainly oppressed. It must be terrible.
ApatheticNoMore
5-11-21, 5:35pm
I can't drive drunk or with drugs in my system. Now I say what drugs I put in my body is my business, and that filling the prisons up with harmless drug crimes is just wrong*, but the police continue to enforce DUIs nontheless (they say I might kill someone, now might is doing an awful lot of work here don't you think, a lot of things *might* happen am I right. And as if I care about whoever I might kill anyway, I don't even know them!!) TYRANNY. Absolute tyranny.
* ever have a conversation with someone who has got a DUI, because I've actually seen it argued it was a "harmless drug offense", never mind the massive metal object
rosarugosa
5-11-21, 5:36pm
My state has now reached the 70% herd immunity level but we are still stuck wearing masks - except of course the governor, who even indoors removes his so he looks better at his news conferences. And I've noticed there's no plexiglass in front of his mouth either. I reported him for violating covid guidelines but I have not received a response.
To be fair, the ASL translator does not wear a mask while translating at the press conferences, and whoever is at the podium speaking removes their mask while at the podium, not just the governor.
To be fair, the ASL translator does not wear a mask while translating at the press conferences, and whoever is at the podium speaking removes their mask while at the podium, not just the governor.
The translator I am fine with.
No covid deaths today in Massachusetts. Nada. Zip. Zero. None. But yet we must wear masks.
I was happy to see Rachelle Walensky taken to task today in a Congressional hearing.
Frankly, I'm about to withdraw from any form of public service, I've given up.
I'm there. I will not be renewing my Nursing License. Enough of this ignorance. I shall not be a target of higher risk nor put my family in that target.
Let them all take care of themselves. Enough is enough.
Chicken lady
5-11-21, 7:31pm
I do not know your lives.
I do not know your resources or your breaking points.
but i offer you John Stewart Mill “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Or Jana stanfield “[you] cannot do all the good that the world needs, but the world needs all the good that [you] can do.”
The translator I am fine with.
No covid deaths today in Massachusetts. Nada. Zip. Zero. None. But yet we must wear masks.
The mask could prevent a death two weeks from now though.
I do not know your lives.
I do not know your resources or your breaking points.
but i offer you John Stewart Mill “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Or Jana stanfield “[you] cannot do all the good that the world needs, but the world needs all the good that [you] can do.”
Is this directed at Healthcare providers who are fed up with ignorance? If yes, please avail yourself of a mask that has been worn for a full week, and get in there and help!
Data from the last year, on matters of caregiver burden, has approximated just what effect the pandemic may have had on the rate. Just this week, a systematic review and meta-analysis of 97,000-plus healthcare workers found depression, anxiety, and PTSD were each prevalent in more than 20% of the observed workforce.
Enough is enough.
I can't talk on my phone in the car on speaker phone, even though studies show all the buttons people have to press to take or initiate a handsfree call on bluetooth are more distracting than what I did for years, because heaven forbid one person die in a car accident, everyone's freedom must be curtailed. It is not just with covid.
Yup. All these safety measures put in place to make your life miserable.>:( You truly are oppressed.
iris lilies
5-11-21, 8:13pm
I do not know your lives.
I do not know your resources or your breaking points.
but i offer you John Stewart Mill “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
Or Jana stanfield “[you] cannot do all the good that the world needs, but the world needs all the good that [you] can do.”
I think both of them can do a lot of good in the world without putting themselves in the path of extreme pathogens.
There is nothing wrong with removing yourself from unfixable, untenable positions.
Myself, I will removing myself for the fkry that is this city’s politics and the accompanying flying bullets.
The mask could prevent a death two weeks from now though.
Maybe it will prevent a death 200 years from now. Maybe the virus could mutate inside me and a new variant arises. I breathe it out and an insect breathes it in. It starts to travel through the animal kingdom, just as original covid travelled amongst bats and other animals before hitting humans. After 200 years this variant could then find a human host. If I give up all my freedoms now I just might save a life 200 years from now, and every life counts. Now being that I am vaccinated the chances of this happening are miniscule, but you never know. Anthrax lies dormant in the soil for years.
Ignore all the downward trends in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Ignore that trends are all moving downward despite some states dumping mask mandates. Be afraid, be very afraid. Be so afraid that public health experts can continue to get all the attention that will help their careers by whipping up hysteria about "impending doom". Never mind that the doom never materialized and things got better instead. Walensky has to be right. I mean she's an expert, right? What do ignorant ordinary people know? How can their experiences of the pandemic possibly compare to hers or those of other self-described public health heroes? If we don't listen to them and appreciate them they might quit and then where would we be?
Free. That's where.
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Following the science is not fear. No misery in my life.
Sorry science doesn't match your needs. Whine away. Can't imagine an hour in your angry skin.
ApatheticNoMore
5-11-21, 9:11pm
This pandemic has been so awfully inconvenient, so awfully inconvenient I tell you. All lives have value in theory, but if yeppej was drowning, I don't think i'd bother to disrupt my stroll. I mean she herself says her life is worth no bother.
Yppej, why don’t you just move to a red state where you can live free to your heart’s content and stop whining all day every day about the tyranny of having to wear a piece of clothing that keeps other people safe. Mississippi, with only 45% having received even one shot of the vaccine would probably be perfect for you. Undoubtedly no one there is wearing or expected to wear a mask. You can live happily ever after since you are vaccinated while the virus continues to burn through the population for the foreseeable future. But, hey, that was their decision so it won’t be your problem. Right?
Chicken lady
5-11-21, 9:41pm
Gardnr,
this is why I basically no longer post here. I fail miserably and frequently to communicate with others here.
let me rephrase.
first two lines - you may very well be irretrievably burned out, I am not in a position to judge.
But I see what you do and I know that we need you, and while you may not be able to do what you are doing anymore, I hope you will not just tell us all to go to hell. Because I don’t want to see the world in the hands of the people who are not stressed by this.
my masks are cloth and I wash them and I put them back on and I go teach and I say “please cover your nose” dozens of times a day. And I tell high school kids truths about vaccines and where to find good information. Because that is what I can do.
my profession lost a lot of good people this year as well, and I grieve that too.
We are in New Hampshire at least once a week and the mask mandate has been lifted there. There is absolutely no difference in mask wearing--they are required in all stores, etc., the dentist office, everywhere we have been. People still wear them out of the store until they are a safe distance from other people.
So I don't think, just because a state lifts the mandate, that it mean no one is wearing a mask. There is nowhere to go inside in NH where you are not wearing a mask, and people wear them when they are passing each other, just as before.
Although the outdoor mask mandate has been lifted in my state I still see people walking by themselves wearing masks. I have no problem with that. We all should have the power of choice. I also believe businesses can put in place whatever restrictions they want, but I don't have to shop there. For instance, I am not buying clothes because I am not allowed to try them on.
rosarugosa
5-12-21, 6:31am
Gardnr,
this is why I basically no longer post here. I fail miserably and frequently to communicate with others here.
let me rephrase.
first two lines - you may very well be irretrievably burned out, I am not in a position to judge.
But I see what you do and I know that we need you, and while you may not be able to do what you are doing anymore, I hope you will not just tell us all to go to hell. Because I don’t want to see the world in the hands of the people who are not stressed by this.
my masks are cloth and I wash them and I put them back on and I go teach and I say “please cover your nose” dozens of times a day. And I tell high school kids truths about vaccines and where to find good information. Because that is what I can do.
my profession lost a lot of good people this year as well, and I grieve that too.
I understood what you were saying, I think. I took it too be supportive, encouraging and appreciative. It's kind of like when we talk about the environment and Catherine says she believes all the little things surely add up to make some degree of difference, and are therefore worth doing even if the big picture can seem discouraging.
It would be nice to have a social reset, maybe when we reach herd immunity we can do this.
I think about that Twilight Zone where they are all rushing to get into the neighborhood bomb shelter. The real horror is how they treat each other, not the bomb.
Rod Serling was really brilliant, and prescient.
happystuff
5-12-21, 11:00am
My cousin, who lost her dd fall of last year, just lost her SO - to COVID.
People are still dying from this!!! But you just keep on whining, Yppej, and pray it doesn't happen to you or your son or your parents or your brother or any other close family member because you selfishly think doing something as simple as wearing a mask is dumb dumb dumb dumb. Take your whining and _____ (you know what goes in the blank!)
Gardnr,
first two lines - you may very well be irretrievably burned out, I am not in a position to judge.
But I see what you do and I know that we need you, and while you may not be able to do what you are doing anymore, I hope you will not just tell us all to go to hell. Because I don’t want to see the world in the hands of the people who are not stressed by this.
4 decades of service is enough for me. I've made it through HIV, Ebola, H1N1, now Covid. I've come out unscathed d/t a lifetime of diligence and expertise in Infection Control.
No, I'm not telling anyone to go to hell. I am exhausted educating, answering questions and still being told science is wrong. DONE. Just DONE.
You know that frosting on the cake thing? I'm there.
No, I'm not telling anyone to go to hell. I am exhausted educating, answering questions and still being told science is wrong. DONE. Just DONE.
You know that frosting on the cake thing? I'm there.
Yup.
My cousin, who lost her dd fall of last year, just lost her SO - to COVID.
People are still dying from this!!!
I am so very sorry HS. My condolences to your family.
Teacher Terry
5-12-21, 11:25am
Happy, I am so sorry about your family’s loss. That’s really sad.
catherine
5-12-21, 12:05pm
I saw that Ivanka Trump had a photo op of her getting her second Pfizer vaccine, and it caused a huge backlash among Trump's base. Tweets like "I love your family, but no way! I'll pray you don't get those awful side effects." I guess this is what happens when you pivot on a critical message in a way that's too little too late.
People are still puzzling over this virus.
I was talking with one guy about the animal origins of covid, and how bats are involved in the transmission chain. He wondered if bats are eaten in China, and mentioned that Ozzy Osbourne bit the head off a bat.
Another guy said that covid is a contributing factor to the deaths but often not the cause. An analogy would be AIDS. Pneumonia may be the cause of death listed, and may have hastened the person's death, but really it was AIDS that killed them. Similarly, most people who have died of covid have underlying health conditions or are elderly and covid just tipped them over the edge. I hope all high risk folks are getting vaccinated. No one wants anyone to die, but if they don't get vaccinated it's on them. I saw a news report the other day, I think from Michigan, stating that not a single case of covid that has come into a hospital there recently is of a person who is vaccinated. Yet the myths still persist that vaccines don't work, you can still catch covid, you can still transmit it, etc. I am getting really annoyed with the anti-vaxxers.
Another guy said that covid is a contributing factor to the deaths but often not the cause. An analogy would be AIDS. Pneumonia may be the cause of death listed, and may have hastened the person's death, but really it was AIDS that killed them. Similarly, most people who have died of covid have underlying health conditions or are elderly and covid just tipped them over the edge. I hope all high risk folks are getting vaccinated.
Umm, your data has some real weakness. Another guy? Sheesh, you really do hate fact and science don't you. Just when I think you can't get any more ridiculous!
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